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Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China a volume in the series Cornell Studies in Security Affairs edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt A list of titles in this series is available at www . cornellpress . cornell . edu. Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China Power and Politics in East Asia Edited by Robert S. Ross and Øystein Tunsjø Cornell University Press Ithaca and London Copyright © 2017 by Cornell University Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of a subvention from the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies which aided in the publication of this book. All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. First published 2017 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of Amer i ca Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Ross, Robert S., 1954– editor. | Tunsjø, Øystein, editor. Title: Strategic adjustment and the rise of China: power and politics in East Asia/edited by Robert S. Ross and Øystein Tunsjø. Other titles: Cornell studies in security affairs. Description: Ithaca; London: Cornell University Press, 2017. | Series: Cornell studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016057396 (print) | LCCN 2016059916 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501709180 (cloth: alk. paper) | ISBN 9781501709197 (pbk.: alk. paper) | ISBN 9781501712760 (ret) | ISBN 9781501712777 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: China—Foreign relations—21st century. | East Asia—Foreign relations—21st century. Classification: LCC DS779.47 .S79 2017 (print) | LCC DS779.47 (ebook) | DDC 355/.033051—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016057396 Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent pos si ble in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-b ased, low- VOC inks and acid- free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-f ree, or partly composed of nonwood fibers. For further information, visit our website at www . cornellpress . cornell . edu. Contents List of Contributors vii Acknowl edgments ix Introduction 1 robert s. ross and øystein tunsjø PART I. POWER AND POLITICS IN THE EAST ASIAN TRANSITION 1. Domestic Politics and Nationalism in East Asian Security 15 randall l. schweller 2. U.S.- China Relations: From Unipolar Hedging toward Bipolar Balancing 41 øystein tunsjø 3. Perception, Misperception, and Sensitivity: Chinese Economic Power and Preferences after the 2008 Financial Crisis 69 daniel w. drezner 4. Two Asias? China’s Rise, Dual Structure, and the Alliance System in East Asia 100 wang dong v Contents PART II. JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE RISE OF CHINA: NATIONAL SECURITY AND NATIONALISM 5. Protecting the Status Quo: Japan’s Response to the Rise of China 137 ian bowers and bjørn elias mikalsen grønning 6. Popu lar Nationalism and Economic Interests in China’s Japan Policy 169 James Reilly 7. China’s Rise and Security Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula 196 chung-in moon PART III. GREAT POWER RELATIONS AND REGIONAL CONFLICT 8. Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.- China Relations 233 m. taylor fravel 9. The United States and China in Northeast Asia: Third- Party Coercion and Alliance Relations 261 robert s. ross Conclusion: East Asia at the Center: Power Shifts and Theory 285 øystein tunsjø Index 299 vi Contributors Ian Bowers is an assistant professor at the Norwegian Defence University College and the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies. Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, a nonresident se nior fellow at the Brookings Insti- tution, and a contributing editor at the Washington Post. M. Taylor Fravel is an associate professor of po liti cal science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Mas sa chus etts Institute of Technology. Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning is a research fellow at the Norwegian De- fence University College and the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies. Chung-in Moon is a professor at the Department of Po liti cal Science, Yonsei University, and chairman of the Presidential Committee on Northeast Asia Cooperation Initiative, Republic of Korea. James Reilly is a se nior lecturer in Northeast Asian politics in the Depart- ment of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. Robert S. Ross is a professor of po liti cal science at Boston College and an associate at the John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University. vii Contributors Randall L. Schweller is a professor of po liti cal science and a Joan N. Huber Faculty Fellow in social and behavioral sciences at Ohio State University. Øystein Tunsjø is a professor of international politics at the Norwegian De- fence University College and the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies. Wang Dong is an associate professor and the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Strategic Studies at Peking University. viii Acknowl edgments The editors are grateful to the Norwegian Embassy in Beijing, and to the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence, for the financial support that made this proje ct pos si ble. They also appreciate the assistance and staff support from the School of International Studies, Peking University, which contributed to the success of the conference in Beijing in 2013, and the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, which hosted a second conference in Oslo in 2014. ix

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Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of Chinademonstrates how structural and domestic variables influence how East Asian states adjust their strategy in light of the rise of China, including how China manages its own emerging role as a regional great power. The contributors note that the shifting regio
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