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spatial data analysis AN INTRODUCTION FOR GIS USERS Christopher D. Lloyd School of Geography, Archaeology, and Palaeoecology Queen’s University, Belfast 3 3 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dp Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offi ces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Th ailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © Christopher D. Lloyd, 2010 Th e moral rights of the author have been asserted Database right Oxford University Press (maker) First published 2010 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Lloyd, Christopher D. Spatial data analysis : an introduction for GIS users / Christopher D. Lloyd. p. cm. ISBN 978-0-19-955432-4 1. Geography—Statistical methods. 2. Geographic information systems. I. Title. G70.3.l56 2010 910.01(cid:1)5195—dc22 2009039593 Typeset by Macmillan Publishing Solutions Printed in Italy on acid-free paper by L.E.G.O. S.p.A. ISBN 978–0–19–955432–4 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Preface Th ere is a plethora of books available that introduce, at a variety of levels, approaches for the analysis of spatial data. Why write yet another one? Th e most obvious reason is that, while many of the existing books provide excellent accounts of a wide range of methods, none of the existing texts started and concluded at a level that I felt was appropriate for the students (mostly at an undergraduate level) whom I have had the responsibility to teach. Many existing introductory texts on geographical information systems (GIS) include material at an appropriate level about data models, databases, visualization, and elements of spatial analysis, amongst other themes. However, in my experience, a combination of texts was required to address fully the key issues in spatial data analysis in suffi cient depth. While some texts covered many approaches to spatial data analysis, the prior expectations, in terms of existing knowledge, made such texts inaccessible to many undergraduate students in geography and others with a burgeoning interest in spatial data analysis. Th is book is intended as a bridge between texts that introduce some key principles of GIS and those that go into a great deal of depth about a wide body of methods for spatial analysis. Another concern is to introduce in a reasonably small amount of text a set of key ideas so that the book could be used to support part of a course concerned with, for example, GIS and GIScience in general. Although there is a focus on how the methods work, the aim is also to develop an understanding of when and how it is appropriate to apply particular methods. One key reason for writing this book follows from my belief that academic courses in GIScience should focus on education and not simply on training—that is, while it is important for students to learn how to use soft ware, with- out some understanding of what is being done and of the implications of particular decisions, the process is reduced to training. Th is book is also a logical progression from previous work: another book (Lloyd, 2006) published before this book was started had a rather diff erent focus and intended audience with some introductory material provided but a fair amount of background knowledge assumed. On fi nishing that book, writing a more general text that started from fi rst principles was tempting and the present book is the result. I hope that this book builds knowledge and fosters interest. If it provokes readers to fi nd out more then it will have succeeded in its aims. Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Spatial data analysis 1 1.2 Purpose of the book 2 1.3 Key concepts 3 1.4 Structure of the book 4 Further reading 5 Chapter 2 Key concepts 1: GIS 6 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 Data and data models 7 2.2.1 Raster data 7 2.2.2 Vector data 8 2.2.3 Topology 9 2.2.4 Rasters and vectors in GIS soft ware 11 2.3 Databases 11 2.3.1 Database management 12 2.3.2 Th e Geodatabase 12 2.4 Referencing systems and projections 12 2.5 Georeferencing 13 2.6 Geocoding 13 2.7 Spatial scale 14 2.8 Spatial data collection 15 2.8.1 Spatial sampling 15 2.8.2 Secondary data sources 16 2.8.3 Remote sensing 16 2.8.4 Ground survey 17 2.9 Sources of data error 18 2.9.1 Uncertainty in spatial data analysis 19 2 .10 Visualizing spatial data 19 2 .11 Querying data 21 2.11.1 Boolean logic 21 Summary 23 Further reading 23 viii CONTENTS Chapter 3 Key concepts 2: statistics 24 3.1 Introduction 24 3.2 Univariate statistics 25 3.3 Multivariate statistics 31 3.4 Inferential statistics 39 3.5 Statistics and spatial data 41 Summary 42 Further reading 42 Chapter 4 Key concepts 3: spatial data analysis 43 4.1 Introduction 43 4.2 Distances 44 4.3 Measuring lengths and perimeters 45 4.3.1 Length of vector features 45 4.4 Measuring areas 45 4.4.1 Areas of polygons 45 4.5 Distances from objects: buffers 47 4.5.1 Vector buff ers 47 4.5.2 Raster proximity 47 4.6 Moving windows: basic statistics in subregions 48 4.7 Geographical weights 50 4.8 Spatial dependence and spatial autocorrelation 55 4.9 The ecological fallacy and the modifi able areal unit problem 60 4 .10 Merging polygons 63 Summary 63 Further reading 64 Chapter 5 Combining data layers 65 5.1 Introduction 65 5.2 Multiple features: overlays 65 5.2.1 Point in polygon 66 5.2.2 Overlay operators 67 5.2.3 ‘Cookie cutter’ operations: erase and clip 69 5.2.4 Applications and problems 70 5.3 Multicriteria decision analysis 71 5.4 Case study 72 Summary 74 Further reading 74 ix CONTENTS Chapter 6 Network analysis 75 6.1 Introduction 75 6.2 Networks 75 6.3 Network connectivity 76 6.4 Summaries of network characteristics 79 6.5 Identifying shortest paths 80 6.6 The travelling salesperson problem 83 6.7 Location–allocation problems 83 6.8 Case study 84 Summary 85 Further reading 85 Chapter 7 Exploring spatial point patterns 86 7.1 Introduction 86 7.2 Basic measures 88 7.3 Exploring spatial variations in point intensity 89 7.3.1 Quadrats 89 7.3.2 Kernel estimation 93 7.4 Measures based on distances between events 97 7.4.1 Nearest-neighbour methods 97 7.4.2 K function 99 7.5 Applications and other issues 102 7.6 Case study 102 Summary 105 Further reading 105 Chapter 8 Exploring spatial patterning in data values 106 8.1 Introduction 106 8.2 Spatial autocorrelation 106 8.3 Local statistics 107 8.4 Local univariate measures 107 8.4.1 Local spatial autocorrelation 110 8.5 Regression and correlation 113 8.5.1 Spatial regression 113 8.5.2 Moving window regression 114 8.5.3 Geographically weighted regression 115 8.6 Other approaches 123 x CONTENTS 8.7 Case studies 124 8.7.1 Spatial autocorrelation analysis 124 8.7.2 Geographically weighted regression 125 Summary 127 Further reading 128 Chapter 9 Spatial interpolation 129 9.1 Introduction 129 9.2 Interpolation 129 9.3 Triangulated irregular networks 130 9.4 Regression for prediction 132 9.4.1 Trend surface analysis 133 9.5 Inverse distance weighting 134 9.6 Thin plate splines 136 9.7 Ordinary kriging 140 9.7.1 Variogram 141 9.7.2 Kriging 146 9.7.3 Cokriging 150 9.8 Other approaches and issues 150 9.9 Areal interpolation 150 9 .10 Case studies 152 9.10.1 Variogram estimation 152 9.10.2 Interpolation 153 Summary 154 Further reading 154 Chapter 10 Analysis of grids and surfaces 155 1 0.1 Introduction 155 1 0.2 Map algebra 155 1 0.3 Image processing 157 1 0.4 Spatial fi lters 158 1 0.5 Derivatives of altitude 160 1 0.6 Other products derived from surfaces 162 1 0.7 Case study 168 Summary 170 Further reading 170 xi CONTENTS Chapter 11 Summary 171 1 1.1 Review of key concepts 171 1 1.2 Other issues 172 1 1.3 Problems 172 1 1.4 Where next? 173 Summary and conclusions 174 References 175 Appendix A Matrix multiplication 180 Appendix B Th e exponential function 181 Appendix C Th e inverse tangent 182 Appendix D Line intersection 183 Appendix E Ordinary least squares 188 Appendix F Ordinary kriging system 191 Appendix G Common problems in spatial data analysis 202 Index 203 1 Introduction 1.1 Spatial data analysis Geographical or spatial data play a vital role in many parts of daily life. Either directly, as in the use of a map for navigating around a city, or indirectly, where we use resources like water or gas, we are dependent on information about where things are located and about the attributes of those things. Making use of spatial data requires a whole set of approaches to extract information from those data and make them useful. Geographical information systems (GIS) play a key role in this context. GIS provide a means of generating, modifying, managing, analysing, and visualizing spatial data. Th e key contribution of GIS, above and beyond functions provided by other forms of soft ware such as cartographic mapping or computer-aided design packages, is in the analysis of spatial data. Broadly, analysis is concerned with breaking apart a problem with the aim of fi nding a solution to this problem. In terms of this book, the aim is to introduce some ideas and methods that may be useful in the analysis of spatial data. For example, approaches are presented for: • summarizing a set of values (e.g. what is the mean average of all values?) • identifying overlaps between diff erent features (e.g. what areas with pollution above some critical threshold are located in areas that have a population of greater than a particular size?) • fi nding the shortest route between one place and another through a network (e.g. a road network) • identifying clustering in point events such as cases of some disease (e.g. where are disease incidence rates highest?) • exploring spatial patterning in variables (a variable being a quantity that may vary across samples; precipitation amount or elevation, for example, can be considered variables) (e.g. does the concentration of some pollutant vary spatially and where are values largest?) 2 INTRODUCTION • exploring how two or more variables are related at diff erent places (e.g. does the relationship between altitude and snowfall vary from place to place?) • estimating the values of some property (e.g. precipitation amount) at locations where there are no samples available (necessary as a prior stage to many other procedures) • assessing the construction costs of alternative routes for a new road. Th ere are many other kinds of approaches covered in this book, but many are based on common concepts such as measurement of distances or diff erences in properties in diff erent areas. Th ese fundamental concepts are described along with some particu- larly widely used approaches and the selected approaches are illustrated with example applications. Th e emphasis throughout is on education rather than simply training, based on the conviction that users of spatial data analysis tools should know something about how the approaches work rather than simply how to apply them. Appendix G details some spatial analysis tasks and the sections of the book that contain relevant material. Th e remainder of this chapter sets out the purpose of the book and its contents. 1.2 Purpose of the book Th e aim of this book is to introduce a set of key ideas or frameworks that will give the reader knowledge of the kinds of problems that can be tackled using widely available tools for the analysis of spatial data. Another key concern is that readers understand how the methods work, therefore a large majority of methods introduced are demon- strated through small case studies. Th e book includes detailed coverage of a relatively limited number of basic key methods for the analysis of spatial data. Th ese are intended to illustrate the workings of particular methods as well as to demonstrate key concepts that will support understanding of other approaches. Th is is not an introduction to GIS. Readers who wish to know about, for example, data models, databases, or visualization will fi nd brief introductions in this book, although they should consult one of a range of textbooks such as those by Heywood et al. (2006) or Longley et al. (2005a) for more in-depth accounts. A full description of some key GIS algorithms (put simply, sets of instructions that are worked through to achieve some particular objective) is provided by Wise (2002). In this book, little prior knowledge is assumed of readers. However, it is expected that readers will have some basic knowledge of GIS principles. Th e book is also not an introduction to statistics, although some key ideas are discussed. Th e book by Rogerson (2006) provides a good introduction to statistics for geographers. Only a very limited prior knowledge of sta- tistics is required to make full use of the present book and it is an aim in this book that no terms likely to cause confusion will be dropped in without explanation. While it is assumed that most readers will work through the book systematically, it is designed so

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