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360 Pages·2013·13.373 MB·English
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Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013 WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA Narrowing Development Gaps The Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013: With Perspectives on China and India contains a medium-term (five-year) economic outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India, a specific focus on narrowing development Southeast Asian gaps and an assessment of national structural policy reforms and medium-term development plans. The report highlights that economies in the region will maintain their overall dynamism in the next five years, supported by the Economic Outlook 2013 growing strength of domestic demand. It also calls for greater efforts in the push for further social and economic integration in Southeast Asia, in particular in the areas of poverty and human resource development. WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA Contents Part 1: Regional economic monitor Chapter 1. Medium-term economic outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India: Prospects and assessments Narrowing Development Gaps Part 2: Structural policy country notes S o u Chapter 2. Structural policy challenges for Southeast Asian countries t h e a s Part 3: Thematic focus: Narrowing development gaps t A s Chapter 3. Overview of development gaps in Southeast Asia: Gaps between ASEAN-6 and CLMV countries ia n Chapter 4. Integrating CLMV countries through trade and investment E c o Chapter 5. Poverty and inequality disparities in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam n o m ic O u t lo o k 2 0 1 3 W IT H P E R S P E C T IV E S O N C H IN A A Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/saeo-2013-en. N D This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. IN D Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. IA ISbN 978-92-64-18076-5 41 2013 01 1 P Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013 WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication do not necessarily reflectthoseoftheOECD,itsDevelopmentCentreorofthegovernmentsoftheirmember countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD(2013),SoutheastAsianEconomicOutlook2013:WithPerspectivesonChinaandIndia, OECDPublishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/saeo-2013-en ISBN978-92-64-18076-5(print) ISBN978-92-64-18724-5(PDF) Annual: ISSN2225-3998(print) ISSN2225-398X(online) ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityofthe relevantIsraeliauthorities.Theuse ofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraeli settlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundonlineat:www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. ©OECD2013 Youcancopy,downloadorprintOECDcontentforyourownuse,andyoucanincludeexcerptsfromOECDpublications,databasesand multimediaproductsinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websitesandteachingmaterials,providedthatsuitable acknowledgmentofthesourceandcopyrightownerisgiven.Allrequestsforpublicorcommercialuseandtranslationrightsshouldbe submittedtorights@oecd.org.Requestsforpermissiontophotocopyportionsofthismaterialforpublicorcommercialuseshallbe addresseddirectlytotheCopyrightClearanceCenter(CCC)[email protected]çaisd'exploitationdudroitdecopie (CFC)[email protected]. Fore wForewoord rD Is this the Asian century? Emerging Asia has experienced remarkable economic growth and a steadfast recovery from the global crisis. According to this new edition of the OECD Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, a number of fast growing Southeast Asian economies, as well as China and India, will maintain their overall dynamism in the next five years. Strong economic performance will be essential for achieving sustained improvements in living standards and laying the foundations for more inclusive societies. Over the medium term, Asia’s economic prowess will be supported not only by strong export performance, which has been a powerful driver of growth in the region, but also by the growing strength of domestic demand. In particular, private consumption and investment will become the main engines of growth in many ASEAN countries. Indeed, several large infrastructure projects are being undertaken and social policies are being strengthened in a number of Southeast Asian economies. An expansion of the middle class will also likely provide further impetus for domestic demand-led growth in the region. However, Southeast Asian governments need to take further action to narrow the region’s considerable social and economic disparities and to sustain robust growth. This third edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook has therefore a special thematic focus on narrowing development gaps in Southeast Asia, addressing disparities both within and among countries. The report emphasises that development gaps go beyond poverty and income inequality, and encompass several non-monetary dimensions, including infrastructure, tourism, trade and investment, as well as information and communication technology. The report also calls for continued efforts to fight poverty and promote human resource development. This publication is the result of close collaboration between the OECD Development Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. It will contribute to inform the debate on the key policy requirements and challenges to reduce development gaps and promote further economic and social integration in the region. The OECD is committed to supporting Asian countries in their efforts to promote economic and social well-being through rigorous analysis, peer learning and best practices. November 2012 Angel Gurría OECD Secretary-General SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2013: WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA © OECD 2013 3 acknow lackenowDledggemeentsments The 2013 edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook: With Perspectives on China and India was prepared by the Asia Desk of the OECD Development Centre in Paris, in co-operation with the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. The team was led by Kensuke Tanaka, Head of the Asia Desk and overall guidance was provided by Mario Pezzini, Director and Carlos Alvarez, Deputy Director of the OECD Development Centre. The volume was drafted by a team composed of Kensuke Tanaka, Stephanie Mak, Kiichiro Fukasaku, Charles Pigott, Pang Eng Fong, Aladdin D. Rillo, Pitchaya Sirivunnabood and Rony Soerakoesoemah. Gabor Fulop managed statistical work related to the report. Dadan Kardiana and Kenji Sato provided able assistance to the team. The structural policy country notes were prepared by the OECD Development Centre in collaboration with experts in the region. We thank Florian Alburo, Quah Boon Huat, Somchai Jitsuchon, Kong Ratha, Nuntaporn Methakunavut, Nguyen Tu Anh and Tan Kim Song for their significant inputs. Charles Pigott and Ken Kincaid provided extensive editorial advice on the draft. Administrative support provided by Elisabeth Turner was highly appreciated. The OECD-ASEAN Narrowing Development Gap Indicators (NDGIs), introduced in this volume, were prepared by a joint team from the OECD Development Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat. We thank Elizabeth Alarilla and Agus Sutanto of the ASEAN Secretariat for their co-operation. This publication benefited from discussions with experts at the OECD Regional Seminar on Narrowing Development Gaps in Southeast Asia in Seoul in Febuary 2012 and the inaugural OECD-AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) Joint Asian Regional Roundtable in Singapore in September 2012. The authors are grateful to Phouphet Kyophilavong, Hong-Eng Lim, Satoshi Nakagawa, Yoichi Nemoto, Zakariah Abdul Rashid, Reza Yamora Siregar, Matthew Yiu and Lee Jae Young. The Outlook was presented at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in November 2012. The Development Centre would also like to express special thanks to the Government of Cambodia, the Ministry of Commerce and in particular, Minister Prasidh Cham for hosting the launch event at the Summit. A large number of government and central bank officials and experts in Southeast Asian countries were involved in successive consultations during OECD Development Centre missions, seminars and meetings. Particular thanks go to Juda Agung, Armida S. Alisjahbana, Irfa Ampri, Aris Ananta, Allauddin Bin Anuar, Jose Marin Arcas, Abu Zeid Mohd Arif, Suwannee Arunsawadiwong, Myrna Clara B. Asuncion, Zainon Bt SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2013: WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA © OECD 2013 5 ACKNOWLEDgEMENTS Bakar, Prijambodo Bambang, Wichayayuth Boonchit, Bui Tat Thang, David W. Carbon, Cao Manh Cuong, Chea Chantum, Naris Chaiyasoot Chulamanee Chartsuwan, Antonio Cintura, Francis Dakila, Dao Thuy Hang, Doan Phuong Lan, Rosemarie Edillon, Emmanuel Esguerra, MD. Farishzanismal, Pandu Rizky Fauzi, Chuntitom Sam Gongsakdi, Thurgha Govindasmy, Diwa C. Guinigundo, Teresa Habitan, Andin Hadiyanto, Nik Mohd Shariffudin Nik Hassan, Hoang Thi Phuong, Shruthi Jayaram, Suchat Katima, Khuong Thanh Ha, Ampon Kittiampon, Syahrial Loetan, Mai Huong Plenong, Nik Azman Nik Abdul Majid, Mohd Esa Abd Manaf, Agus Martowardojo, Andie Megantara, Ravi Muthayah, Don Nakornthab, Mulia P. Nasution, Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, Nguyen Duc Long, Nguyen Duc Thanh, Nguyen Thi Thu Hien, Pilanya Niyomthai, Marzunisham bin Omar, Kennedy Mayoung Onon, Nadsirah Osman, Phan Ngoc Mai Phuong, Pradit Phataraprasit, Bambang Prijambodo, Dian Ediana Rae, Muhammad Bin abd Rahaman, Sjamsu Rahardja, Chadin Rochananonda, Seilava Ros, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Goh Chin Siong, Mahendra Siregar, Salmet Seno Adji, Thammanoon Sodsrichai, Margarita R. Songco, Nurulashikin Suid, Sugeng, Ceppie Sumadilaga, Wismana Adi Suryabrata, Syaifullah, Tan Kok Kong, Pattama Teanravisitsagool, Jason Teo, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Leonard Thampubolon, Thia Jang Ping, Charmeida Tjokrosuwarno, Tran Anh Vu, Tran Dinh Thien, TRANG Thu Vu, Ma. Cyd n. Tuano-amador, Soraphol Tulayasathien, Suthirat Vansrisawasd, Porametee Vimolsiri, Vo Tri Thanh, Piang-or Wacharaprapapong, Perry Warjiyo, Ajaree Wongwan, Anugrah E. Yogyantoro, Maziah Binti Che Yusoff, Saharudin Yusoff, Baoliang Zhu, Kun Zhao and Doddy Zulverdi. The team of this report would like to acknowledge the comments received from several research institutes in Asia, in particular the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), the Thailand Development Research Institute Foundation (TDRI) and the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Viet Nam. Support from OECD delegations and embassies of ASEAN countries in Paris, in particular Ambassador Stefan Flückiger, Ambassador Kyung Wook Hur and Ambassador Motohide Yoshikawa, as well as Winston Almeda, Deena Amatong, Astana Abdul Aziz, Jai-chul Choi, Tsutomu Himeno, Wasana Honboonheum, Daniel Koh, Tran Phan Linh, Ly Van Anh, Kumiko Nada, Yukiko Okano, Jungoh Park, Rosalita Prospero, Chanol Rith and Tri Tharyat is gratefully acknowledged. The Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) and the 2013 version of the Medium-term Projection Framework for Growth and Development (MPF-2013) used in this publication were prepared by a team managed by Kensuke Tanaka and composed of Gabor Fulop, Yoki Okawa and Masakazu Someya. Elizabeth Nash, Aida Buendia, Louise Schets, Erik Cervin-Edin, Vanda Legrandgérard, Jane Marshall and Diana Klein turned the manuscript into the publication. Aida Buendia designed the cover page of the publication and special thanks go to Elizabeth Nash for her substantial contributions. Elodie Masson, media and press relations, provided excellent support. Last but not least, the OECD Development Centre would like to acknowledge gratefully the financial support received from the governments of Japan, Korea and Switzerland. 6 SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2013: WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA © OECD 2013 table oF ctabloe of cnontetnts ents Acronyms and abbreviations ...................................................................................................................15 Preface .........................................................................................................................................................17 Executive summary ..................................................................................................................................19 overview .....................................................................................................................................................23 Part 1. Regional economic monitor ..................................................................................................23 Part 2. Structural policy country notes............................................................................................30 Part 3. Thematic focus: Narrowing development gaps .................................................................33 Part one: regIonal economIc monItor ......................................................................................39 Chapter 1. medium-term economic outlook for southeast asia, china and India: Prospects and assessments ................................................................................................................................................41 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................42 Overview and main findings: The economic outlook for 2013-17 ...............................................42 Near-term macroeconomic developments and prospects ...........................................................45 Medium-term prospects: Greater reliance on domestic demand for growth ...........................64 Key policy challenges to sustaining healthy growth in the medium term ...............................73 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................................110 Notes ....................................................................................................................................................111 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................113 Part two: strUctUral PolIcY coUntrY notes ......................................................................117 Chapter 2. structural policy challenges for southeast asian countries .........................................119 Synopsis of structural policy challenges in Southeast Asia .................................................120 Cambodia .......................................................................................................................................123 Indonesia .......................................................................................................................................138 Malaysia .........................................................................................................................................158 Philippines .....................................................................................................................................175 Singapore .......................................................................................................................................190 Thailand .........................................................................................................................................204 Viet Nam ........................................................................................................................................219 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................235 SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2013: WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA © OECD 2013 7 TAbLE Of CONTENTS Part tHree: tHematIc FocUs: narrowIng DeVeloPment gaPs........................................239 Chapter 3. overview of development gaps in southeast asia: gaps between asean-6 and clmV countries ........................................................................................................................................241 Introduction and key findings .........................................................................................................242 Infrastructure ....................................................................................................................................249 Human resource development ........................................................................................................256 Information and communication technology (ICT) .....................................................................268 Trade and investment (regional economic integration) .............................................................271 Tourism ...............................................................................................................................................277 Poverty ................................................................................................................................................280 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................286 Notes ...................................................................................................................................................287 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................288 Chapter 4. Integrating clmV countries through trade and investment ........................................291 Introduction: CLMV economies on the move ...............................................................................292 The emergence of a trade-FDI nexus .............................................................................................293 Entering the global market ..............................................................................................................299 Managing the next phase of reform and integration ..................................................................309 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................313 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................315 Notes ...................................................................................................................................................323 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................325 Chapter 5. Poverty and inequality disparities in cambodia, lao PDr, myanmar and Viet nam ...........................................................................................................................................329 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................330 The CLMV experience of poverty and inequality – country by country ..................................332 CLMV countries compared ..............................................................................................................348 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................350 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................351 statIstIcal anneX ..............................................................................................................................353 tables overview 0.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India ............................................................24 0.2. Southeast Asian countries’ indirect trade exposure to G3 ....................................................25 0.3. Medium-term development plans of Southeast Asian countries ........................................30 0.4. Summary of medium-term policy challenges and responses in Southeast Asia ..............31 chapter one 1.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India ............................................................43 1.2. Southeast Asian countries’ direct and indirect trade exposure to G3 ................................58 1.3. Estimated impact of capital inflow bonanzas on the probability of domestic credit booms in Asia ....................................................................................................................76 8 SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2013: WITH PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA AND INDIA © OECD 2013

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