Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction: 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011. Proceedings PDF
Preview Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction: 4th International Conference, SBP 2011, College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011. Proceedings
Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589 CommencedPublicationin1973 FoundingandFormerSeriesEditors: GerhardGoos,JurisHartmanis,andJanvanLeeuwen EditorialBoard DavidHutchison LancasterUniversity,UK TakeoKanade CarnegieMellonUniversity,Pittsburgh,PA,USA JosefKittler UniversityofSurrey,Guildford,UK JonM.Kleinberg CornellUniversity,Ithaca,NY,USA AlfredKobsa UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,CA,USA FriedemannMattern ETHZurich,Switzerland JohnC.Mitchell StanfordUniversity,CA,USA MoniNaor WeizmannInstituteofScience,Rehovot,Israel OscarNierstrasz UniversityofBern,Switzerland C.PanduRangan IndianInstituteofTechnology,Madras,India BernhardSteffen TUDortmundUniversity,Germany MadhuSudan MicrosoftResearch,Cambridge,MA,USA DemetriTerzopoulos UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles,CA,USA DougTygar UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,CA,USA GerhardWeikum MaxPlanckInstituteforInformatics,Saarbruecken,Germany John Salerno Shanchieh JayYang Dana Nau Sun-Ki Chai (Eds.) Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction 4th International Conference, SBP 2011 College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011 Proceedings 1 3 VolumeEditors JohnSalerno AFRL/RIEF,525BrooksRoad,Rome,NY13441,USA E-mail:[email protected] ShanchiehJayYang RochesterInstituteofTechnology,DepartmentofComputerEngineering 83LombMemorialDrive,Bldg09,Rochester,NY14623-5603,USA E-mail:[email protected] DanaNau UniversityofMaryland,DepartmentofComputerScience A.V.WilliamsBuilding,CollegePark,MD20742,USA E-mail:[email protected] Sun-KiChai UniversityofHawaii,DepartmentofSociology 2424MaileWay247,Honolulu,HI96822,USA E-mail:[email protected] ISSN0302-9743 e-ISSN1611-3349 ISBN978-3-642-19655-3 e-ISBN978-3-642-19656-0 DOI10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0 SpringerHeidelbergDordrechtLondonNewYork LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011922188 CRSubjectClassification(1998):H.3,H.2,H.4,K.4,J.3,H.5 LNCSSublibrary:SL3–InformationSystemsandApplication,incl.Internet/Web andHCI ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2011 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,re-useofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9,1965, initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer.Violationsareliable toprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,etc.inthispublicationdoesnotimply, evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevantprotectivelaws andregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Typesetting:Camera-readybyauthor,dataconversionbyScientificPublishingServices,Chennai,India Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Preface Welcometothe2011internationalconferenceonSocialComputing,Behavioral– CulturalModelingandPrediction(SBP11).Theoverallgoaloftheconferenceis to bring together a diverse set of researchers/disciplines to promote interaction and assimilation so as to understand social computing and behavior modeling. In2008,thefirstyearofSBP,weheldaworkshopandhad34paperssubmitted; in 2010 we had grown to a conference and had 78 submissions. This year, our fourth,wecontinuedtoexpand,joiningforceswiththeInternationalConference on Cultural Dynamics (and amending our name accordingly) and we received a record 88 submissions. The submissions were from Asia, Oceania, Europe, and the Americas. We are extremely delighted that the technical program en- compassed keynote speeches, invited talks, and high-quality contributions from multiple disciplines. We truly hope that our collaborative, exploratory research canadvancethe emergingfield ofsocialcomputing.This yearwealsocontinued offering four pre-conference tutorials, a cross-disciplinary round table session, a poster board session and a series of panels including a panel featuring program staff from federal agencies discussing potential researchopportunities. The accepted papers cover a wide range of interesting topics: (i) social net- work analysis such as social computation, complex networks, virtual organiza- tion,andinformationdiffusion;(ii)modeling includingculturalmodeling,statis- tical modeling, predictive modeling, cognitive modeling, and validation process; (iii)machinelearninganddatamining,linkprediction,Bayesianinference,infor- mation extraction, information aggregation, soft information, content analysis, tag recommendation, and Web monitoring; (iv) social behaviors such as large- scaleagent-basedsimulations,groupinteractionandcollaboration,interventions, humanterrain,altruism,violentintent,andemergentbehavior;(v)public health suchasalcoholabuse,diseasenetworks,pandemicinfluenza,andextremeevents; (vi)cultural aspectsincluding culturalconsensus,coherence,psycho-culturalsit- uationawareness,culturalpatternsandrepresentation,populationbeliefs,evolu- tionaryeconomics,biologicalrationality,perceivedtrustworthiness,andrelative preferences; and (vii) effects and search, for example, temporal effects, geospa- tial effects,coordinatedsearch,and stochasticsearch.It is interesting that if we were to trace these keywords back to the papers, we would find natural groups of authors of different papers attacking similar problems. While it may seem at first glance that the topics covered by the papers are too disparate to summarize in any succinct fashion, there are certain pat- terns that reflect trends in the field of social computing. One is the increasing participation of the human and social sciences in social computing, as well as the active collaboration between such fields and science and engineering fields. Disciplines represented at this conference include computer science, electrical VI Preface engineering, psychology, economics, sociology, and public health. A number of interdisciplinary and applied research institutions are also represented. This conference cannot be run by only a few. We would like to first express our gratitude to all the authors for contributing an extensive range of research topics showcasing many interesting research activities and pressing issues. The regret is ours that due to the space limit, we could not include as many papers as we wished. We thank the Program Committee members for helping review and providing constructive comments and suggestions. Their objective reviews significantly improved the overall quality and content of the papers. We would like to thank our keynote and invited speakers for presenting their unique re- search and views. We deeply thank the members of the Organizing Committee for helping to run the workshopsmoothly; from the call for papers, the website development and update, to proceedings production and registration. Last but not least, we sincerely appreciate the support from the University of Maryland Cultural Dynamics Lab along with the following federal agencies: AirForceOfficeofScientificResearch(AFOSR),AirForceResearchLaboratory (AFRL), Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research and the National Institute on Drug Abuse at the National Institutes of Health, Office of Naval Research(ONR), Army ResearchOffice (ARO) and the National Science Foun- dation (NSF). We would also like to thank Alfred Hofmann from Springer and Lisa Press from the University of Maryland. We thank all for their kind help, dedication and support that made SBP11 possible. March 2010 John Salerno Shanchieh Jay Yang Dana Nau Sun-Ki Chai Organization Conference Chairs Dana Nau, Sun-Ki Chai ProgramChairs John Salerno, Shanchieh Jay Yang Steering Committee Huan Liu, John Salerno, Sun-Ki Chai, Patricia Mabry, Dana Nau, VS Subrahmanian Advisory Committee Rebecca Goolsby, Terrance Lyons, Patricia L. Mabry, Fahmida Chowdhury, Jeff Johnston Tutorial Chair Anna Nagurney Workshop Chairs Fahmida N. Chowdhury, Bethany Deeds Poster Session Chair Lei Yu Sponsorship Committee Huan Liu, L. Patricia Mabry Student Arrangement Chair Patrick Roos Publicity Chair Inon Zuckerman Web Master Mark Y. Goh, Peter Kovac, Kobi Hsu, Rayhan Hasan Technical Review Committee Myriam Abramson, Naval Research Douglas Boulware, AFRL (RI), Laboratory, USA USA Donald Adjeroh, Western Virginia Jiangzhou Chen, Virginia Tech, USA University, USA Xueqi Cheng, CAS, P.R. China Agarwal, University of Arkansas at Alvin Chin, Nokia Research Center Little Rock, USA David Chin, University of Hawaii, Denise Anthony, Dartmouth College, USA USA Jai Choi, Boeing, USA Joe Antonik, AFRL (RI), USA Hasan Davulcu, Arizona State Gurdal Arslan, University of Hawaii, University, USA USA Brian Dennis, Lockheed Martin, USA Erik Augustson, NIH, USA Guozhu Dong, Wright State ChittaBaral,ArizonaStateUniversity, University, USA USA Richard Fedors, AFRL (RI), USA Joshua Behr, Old Dominion Laurie Fenstermacher, AFRL (RH), University, USA USA Geoffrey Barbier, AFRL (RH), USA William Ferng, Boeing, USA Herbert Bell, AFRL (RH), USA Clay Fink, John Hopkins University – Lashon Booker, The MITRE APL, USA Corporation, USA Anthony Ford, AFRL (RI), USA Nathan Bos, John Hopkins Anna Haake, RIT, USA University – APL, USA Jessica Halpin, Not Available VIII Organization Walter Hill, Not Available Kazumi Saito, University of Shizuoka, Michael Hinman, AFRL (RI), USA Japan Jang Hyun Kim, University of Hawaii Antonio Sanfilippo, Pacific Northwest at Manoa, USA National Laboratory,USA Terresa Jackson,Not Available Hessam Sarjoughian, Arizona State Ruben Juarez, University of Hawaii, University, USA USA Arunabha Sen, Arizona State Byeong-Ho Kang, University of University, USA Tasmania, Australia Vincient Silenzio, Not Available Douglas Kelly, AFRL (RH), USA Adam Stotz, CUBRC, USA Masahiro Kimura, Ryukoku Gary Strong, Johns Hopkins University, Japan University, USA Irwin King, Chinese University of George Tadda, AFRL (RI), USA Hong Kong Lei Tang, Arizona State University, Minseok Kwon, RIT, USA USA Alexander H. Levis, George Mason Shusaku Tsumoto, Shimane University, USA University, Japan Huan Liu, Arizona State University, Trevor VanMierlo, Not Available USA Changzhou Wang, Boeing, USA Lustrek, Jozef Stefan Institute, Zhijian Wang, Zhejiang University, Slovenia China Patricia L. Mabry, National Institutes Rik Warren, AFRL (RH), USA of Health, USA Xintao Wu, University of North K. Clay McKell, Not Available Carolina at Charlotte, USA Sai Motoru, Arizona State University, Ronald Yager, Iona College, USA USA Laurence T. Yang, STFX, Canada Hiroshi Motoda, Osaka University and Shanchieh Jay Yang, RIT, USA AOARD, Japan Michael Young, AFRL (RH), USA Anna Nagurney, University of Mass Lei Yu, Binghamton University, USA Amherst, USA Philip Yu, University of Chicago,USA Keisuke Nakao, University of Hawaii Laura Zavala, Not Available at Hilo, USA Daniel Zeng, University of Arizona, Kouzou Ohara, Aoyama Gakuin USA University, Japan Jianping Zhang, The MITRE Esa Rantanen, RIT, USA Corporation,USA Bonnie Riehl, AFRL (RH), USA Zhongfei Zhang, Not Available Inon Zuckerman, UMD Table of Contents UsingModelstoInformPolicy:InsightsfromModelingtheComplexities of Global Polio Eradication(Keynote) .............................. 1 Kimberly M. Thompson TowardCulturallyInformedOptionAwarenessforInfluenceOperations with S-CAT ..................................................... 2 Ken Murray, John Lowrance, Ken Sharpe, Doug Williams, Keith Grembam, Kim Holloman, Clarke Speed, and Robert Tynes Optimization-Based Influencing of Village Social Networks in a Counterinsurgency ............................................... 10 Benjamin W.K. Hung, Stephan E. Kolitz, and Asuman Ozdaglar Identifying Health-Related Topics on Twitter: An Exploration of Tobacco-Related Tweets as a Test Topic ............................ 18 Kyle W. Prier, Matthew S. Smith, Christophe Giraud-Carrier, and Carl L. Hanson ApplicationofaProfileSimilarityMethodologyforIdentifyingTerrorist Groups That Use or Pursue CBRN Weapons ........................ 26 RonaldL. Breiger, Gary A.Ackerman,Victor Asal,David Melamed, H. Brinton Milward, R. Karl Rethemeyer, and Eric Schoon Cognitive Aspects of Power in a Two-Level Game .................... 34 Ion Juvina, Christian Lebiere, Jolie Martin, and Cleotilde Gonzalez Predicting Demonstrations’ Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning....................................................... 42 Natalie Fridman, Tomer Zilberstein, and Gal A. Kaminka Abstraction of an Affective-Cognitive Decision Making Model Based on Simulated Behaviour and Perception Chains......................... 51 Alexei Sharpanskykh and Jan Treur Medicare Auctions: A Case Study of Market Design in Washington, DC (Keynote) ................................................... 60 Peter Cramton ALongitudinalViewoftheRelationshipbetweenSocialMarginalization and Obesity..................................................... 61 Andrea Apolloni, Achla Marathe, and Zhengzheng Pan X Table of Contents Open Source Software Development: Communities’ Impact on Public Good........................................................... 69 Helena Garriga, Sebastian Spaeth, and Georg von Krogh Location Privacy Protection on Social Networks ..................... 78 Justin Zhan and Xing Fang Agent-Based Models of Complex Dynamical Systems of Market Exchange (Keynote).............................................. 86 Herbert Gintis Computational and Statistical Models: A Comparison for Policy Modeling of Childhood Obesity (Panel)............................. 87 Patricia L. Mabry, Ross Hammond, Terry T-K Huang, and Edward Hak-Sing Ip Detecting Changes in Opinion Value Distribution for Voter Model...... 89 Kazumi Saito, Masahiro Kimura, Kouzou Ohara, and Hiroshi Motoda Dynamic Simulation of Community Crime and Crime-Reporting Behavior........................................................ 97 Michael A. Yonas, Jeffrey D. Borrebach, Jessica G. Burke, Shawn T. Brown, Katherine D. Philp, Donald S. Burke, and John J. Grefenstette Model Docking Using Knowledge-LevelAnalysis ..................... 105 Ethan Trewhitt, Elizabeth Whitaker, Erica Briscoe, and Lora Weiss Using Web-Based Knowledge Extraction Techniques to Support Cultural Modeling ............................................... 113 Paul R. Smart, Winston R. Sieck, and Nigel R. Shadbolt How Corruption Blunts Counternarcotic Policies in Afghanistan: A Multiagent Investigation........................................ 121 Armando Geller, Seyed M. Mussavi Rizi, and Maciej M. L(cid:3)atek Discovering CollaborativeCyber Attack Patterns Using Social Network Analysis ........................................................ 129 Haitao Du and Shanchieh Jay Yang Agents That Negotiate Proficiently with People (Keynote) ............ 137 Sarit Kraus Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment ................................................... 138 Xiaolin Hu and Richard Puddy Table of Contents XI CrowdsourcingQualityControlofOnlineInformation:AQuality-Based Cascade Model .................................................. 147 Wai-Tat Fu and Vera Liao Consumer Search, Rationing Rules, and the Consequence for Competition..................................................... 155 Christopher S. Ruebeck Pattern Analysis in Social Networks with Dynamic Connections ....... 163 Yu Wu and Yu Zhang Formation of Common Investment Networks by Project Establishment between Agents.................................................. 172 Jesu´s Emeterio Navarro-Barrientos Constructing Social Networks from Unstructured Group Dialog in Virtual Worlds .................................................. 180 Fahad Shah and Gita Sukthankar Effects of Opposition on the Diffusion of Complex Contagions in Social Networks: An Empirical Study..................................... 188 Chris J. Kuhlman, V.S. Anil Kumar, Madhav V. Marathe, S.S. Ravi, and Daniel J. Rosenkrantz Promoting Coordination for Disaster Relief – From Crowdsourcing to Coordination .................................................... 197 Huiji Gao, Xufei Wang, Geoffrey Barbier, and Huan Liu Trust Maximization in Social Networks ............................. 205 Justin Zhan and Xing Fang Towards a Computational Analysis of Status and Leadership Styles on FDA Panels..................................................... 212 David A. Broniatowski and Christopher L. Magee Tracking Communities in Dynamic Social Networks .................. 219 Kevin S. Xu, Mark Kliger, and Alfred O. Hero III BayesianNetworks for Social Modeling ............................. 227 Paul Whitney, Amanda White, Stephen Walsh, Angela Dalton, and Alan Brothers A PsychologicalModel for Aggregating Judgments of Magnitude....... 236 Edgar C. Merkle and Mark Steyvers
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