Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation

400 Pages·2022·10.772 MB·English

by  Vipin Narang

SEEKING THE BOMB
Princeton Studies in International History and Politics
G. John Ikenberry, Marc Trachtenberg, William C. Wohlforth,
and Keren Yarhi-Milo, Series Editors
For a full list of titles in the series, go to https://press.princeton.edu/series/princeton
-studies-in-international-history-and-politics
Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation, Vipin Narang
The Spectre of War: International Communism and the
Origins of World War II, Jonathan Haslam
Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949, M. Taylor Fravel
Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases
in International Politics, Dominic D. P. Johnson
Divided Armies: Inequality and Battlefield Performance in Modern War, Jason Lyall
After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of
Order after Major Wars, New Edition, G. John Ikenberry
Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science
on National Security, Michael C. Desch
Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, Austin Carson
Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in
International Conflict, Keren Yarhi-Milo
Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in
the Twentieth Century, Seva Gunitsky
Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal
Internationalism and Its Crisis Today, Tony Smith
Powerplay: The Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia, Victor D. Cha
Economic Interdependence and War, Dale C. Copeland
Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of
Intentions in International Relations, Keren Yarhi-Milo
Seeking the Bomb
Strategies of Nuclear
Proliferation
Vipin Narang
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
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CONTENTS
Illustrations vii
Acknowledgments ix
1 Introduction 1
2 Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation and Their Sources 15
3 The Varieties of Hedgers: India, Japan, West Germany, Brazil and
Argentina, Sweden and Switzerland 53
4 The Sprinters: Soviet Union, France, and China 127
5 The Sheltered Pursuers: Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea 176
6 The Hiders: Iraq, Taiwan, and South Africa 236
7 The Consequences for Nuclear Proliferation and Conflict: Halting
Hedgers and Handling Hiders (Libya, Syria, and Iran) 292
8 Conclusion 338
Bibliography 353
Index 369
v

ILLUSTRATIONS
Figures
1.1. Windows of Volatility 11
2.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory 28
2.2. Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation Over Time 44
3.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory’s Varieties of Hedging 55
3.2. Uranium Enrichment Curve via Centrifuges 105
4.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory’s Pathway to Sprinting 128
5.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory’s Pathway to the Sheltered
Pursuit Strategy 177
6.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory’s Pathway to a Hiding Strategy 238
8.1. Proliferation Strategy Theory 346
Tables
2.1. Indicators for the Varieties of Hedging 20
2.2. Typology of the Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation 25
2.3. Measuring Domestic Political Consensus 34
2.4. Empirical Codings of Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation 42
8.1. Empirical Codings of Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation 348
vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The germ for this book was planted when I was an undergraduate chemical
engineer at Stanford who was broadly interested in international security
affairs, and it was, perhaps fittingly, completed amid a full-blown global
pandemic. In my first year of college, India and Pakistan tested nuclear
weapons. As I was leaving the Bay Area several years later, the United States
was preparing to invade Iraq, in part due to suspicions of a clandestine
nuclear weapons program. Nuclear weapons proliferation is largely what
drove me to switch careers and devote my life to studying international
security, with the incredible encouragement of my two most supportive
gurus at Stanford: Scott Sagan and Taylor Fravel. Scott took a chance on
this curious chemical engineer and invited me into the CISAC family,
which is the real Hotel California: even when you check out, you never
really leave. Scott has been a source of unwavering support over almost
two decades who not only has been an incredible guide and friend but has
served as a role model in how to do first-rate scholarship, how to be a sup-
portive (and sometimes necessarily tough) mentor, and how to do it with
unimpeachable integrity. I can never repay Scott for all that he has done
for me; I can only hope that I can pay a fraction of it forward to my own
students. Taylor and I reunited at MIT after I finished my doctorate and
is my partner in crime at the Security Studies Program. We have battled
travel systems, fundraising, classes, administrative bureaucracy, bulk wine
orders, and life together. There is no one with whom I would rather be in
the trenches fighting this fight. No two people are more responsible for this
book than Scott and Taylor. You can blame them. Those that wanted me to
go to medical school still do.
Along the way, Yuen Foong Khong, Stephen Rosen, and Iain Johnston
encouraged me to not abandon my passion for nuclear security when pretty
much everyone around me was telling me it was a dying field. Steve indelibly
left a line in my head that I have never forgotten: so long as nuclear weapons
continue to exist, we need people to study them.
ix
x!ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Although my first book was about strategies of nuclear deterrence, this
book returns to my roots and focuses on strategies of nuclear proliferation.
When I got into this business, the bulk of the literature on nuclear prolifera-
tion focused on why states such as India, Pakistan, and Iraq might want to
seek nuclear weapons. By the time I finished my first book, I was struck that
no one had yet asked how these states went about pursuing nuclear weapons
and why those choices mattered. Why did India take a quarter century to
decide to finally weaponize its nuclear deterrent? How did Pakistan escape
American pressure to terminate its nuclear program? And of course, Iraq’s
(failed) clandestine pursuit of nuclear weapons in the 1980s set the stage for
a seismic reordering of Middle East politics in 2003. This is a book about the
various ways in which states seek nuclear weapons, why those choices are
important, and how they may be managed or stopped. Many people helped
along the way, and I apologize if I have inadvertently forgotten anyone.
MIT’s Department of Political Science and Security Studies Program
have been the ideal intellectual home for my academic career, and this book.
In addition to Taylor, Dick Samuels, Roger Petersen, Steve Van Evera, and
Owen Cote have been exceptionally supportive mentors and colleagues in
this business. They keep me honest and push me to be a better, and smarter,
scholar, though I often fall short. A special thanks to Barry Posen, who, as
a leader and a role model, has done more to inspire me to want to be pre-
cise in my language, rigorous in my thinking, and honest to the data than
anyone—because he expects nothing less from himself, his colleagues, and
students. Frank Gavin was part of our merry band for too short a time but
left an indelible mark on me and our program, pushing me to try to be fear-
less in challenging conventional wisdoms. Melissa Nobles, David Singer, and
Andrea Campbell have provided invaluable support, and served as fantastic
leaders, in the political science department. And I am especially indebted to
Lynne Levine, Maria DiMauro, and Janine Sazinsky for helping me keep the
trains running on time. Also, a special thanks to MIT itself, which managed
the pandemic as well as can be imagined, including prioritizing reopening
the campus daycare full time—with its incredible teachers and staff, without
whom I would not have been able to complete this book.
My MIT PhD students have been, and will forever remain, my pride and
joy. Not only am I proud of each of their own scholarly and policy achieve-
ments, but many have helped me immeasurably on this book as research
assistants: Mark Bell, Nicholas Blanchette, Christopher Clary, Fiona Cun-
ningham, Suzanne Freeman, Mayumi Fukushima, Jason Kwon, Sameer Lal-
wani, Nicholas Miller, Aidan Milliff, Cullen Nutt, Reid Pauly, Rachel Tecott,