Russia’s Arctic Strategies and the Future of the Far North

279 Pages·2013·7.34 MB·English

by  Marlene Laruelle

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“ A ‘must read’ for those interested in the policy of Russia—the country with the largest r
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Arctic territory and population—toward this increasingly important world region.” e Russia’s
—Timothy Heleniak, Editor of Polar Geography lle
Russia’s Arctic Strategies and the
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By Marlene Laruelle s
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“ In the twenty-first century, it may well be that an ‘Arctic Spring’—in a region that is ’s
simultaneously experiencing both deeply disturbing environmental change and remarkable A Strategies
economic opportunities—will be more geo-strategically significant and transforma- r
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tional than many anticipate today. The epicenter of this Arctic awakening is Russia,
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with more than 60 percent of the Arctic’s coastline, 75 percent of known Arctic oil, 90 i
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percent of known Arctic gas resources, and with its strategic nuclear arsenal based in the S
Arctic. Marlene Laruelle’s timely and insightful examination of Russia’s Arctic t and the
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policies, domestic challenges, and emerging geo-economic dynamics provides
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us with an invaluable guide as to what motivates and animates this critical Arctic t
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player, with important regional and international consequences. Scholars, experts, and g
policy makers will recognize Russia’s Arctic Strategies and the Future of the Far North ie
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as a foundational work that deepens and furthers our understanding of an uncertain s
future for both Russia and the Arctic.” a
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—Heather A. Conley, Center for Strategic and International Studies
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“ Marlene Laruelle’s Russia’s Arctic Strategies and the Future of the Far North is essential h
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reading for students and scholars of Arctic and Russian politics. In an analytically
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innovative and accessible manner, this comprehensive account covers the key policy
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challenges and central actors that shape—and have shaped historically—Russia’s t
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approach to the Arctic.”
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—Elana Wilson Rowe, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs e Far North
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“ Instead of viewing the Arctic from a single Kremlin-centric vantage point, Marlene t
Laruelle digs deep into Russia’s security, energy, transportation, development, and h
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ocean policies to reach beyond the generalities found in press accounts. Her F
detailed assessments deflate much of the current hype surrounding Russia’s northern a Marlene Laruelle
shipping and energy development activities, but they also bring to light enticing r
possibilities if Russia adopts a long-term perspective that integrates its functional N
and geographic interests and the interests and potentialities of its northern and o
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eastern territories.” t
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—Caitlyn Antrim, Institute for the New Arctic Future
www.mesharpe.com
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Armonk, New York
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Cover design by Jesse M. Sanchez r
On the cover: Montage of a NASA satellite image of the New Siberian p
Islands and photographs of the Arctic port town of Pevek by Brian Tibbets. e
Russia’s
Arctic
Strategies
and the
Future of
the
Far North

Russia’s
Arctic
Strategies
and the
Future of
the
Far North
Marlene Laruelle
M.E.Sharpe
Armonk, New York
London, England
Copyright © 2014 by M.E. Sharpe, Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form
without written permission from the publisher, M.E. Sharpe, Inc.,
80 Business Park Drive, Armonk, New York 10504.
The EuroSlavic fonts used to create this work are © 1986–2014 Payne Loving Trust.
EuroSlavic is available from Linguist’s Software, Inc.,
www.linguistsoftware.com, P.O. Box 580, Edmonds, WA 98020-0580 USA
tel [phone].
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Laruelle, Marlene, author.
Russia’s Arctic strategies and the future of the Far North / by Marlene Laruelle.
pages : maps ; cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7656-3500-6 (hardcover : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-7656-3501-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Russia, Northern—Strategic aspects. 2. Geopolitics—Russia, Northern. 3. Arctic Coast
(Russia)—Strategic aspects. 4. Geopolitics—Russia (Federation)—Arctic Coast. I. Title.
DK501.2.L37 2014
320.6094791—dc23 2013021593
Printed in the United States of America
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of
American National Standard for Information Sciences
Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials,
ANSI Z 39.48-1984.
~
IBT (c) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
SP (p) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Maps and Tables vii
Introduction ix
1. Russia’s Arctic Policy and the Interplay of the
Domestic and International 3
Discursive and Bureaucratic Production 3
Russia’s Decision Making Regarding Arctic Affairs 6
The Arctic as a Flagship for Putin-Style Statehood 9
An Internationally Recognized “Brand” for Russia 12
The Arctic: A Soft Power Tool for Bilateral Relations? 15
2. A Territory or an Identity? The Far North in
Russia’s Statehood 24
The Imperial and Soviet Memory of the Arctic 24
What Administrative Status for Arctic Regions? 28
Indigenous Peoples as Marginalized Stakeholders? 33
The Nationalist Reading of the Arctic:
Russia’s New Lebensraum 39
3. Russia’s Spatial and Demographic Challenges 47
“Archipelago Russia”: A Fragmented Territory 48
Russia’s Demographic Puzzle 51
Evolving Patterns of Arctic Demography and Mobility 57
Is Migration the Future of the Arctic Workforce? 60
4. Climate Change and Its Expected Impact on Russia 68
Framing Climate Change Debates 68
Climate Change in the Arctic 71
Climate Change in the Russian Federation 74
Calculating the Impact of Climate Change on the
Russian Economy 77
v
vi contents
Russia’s Domestic Actors on Climate Change 82
Russia’s Hesitant Climate Change Policy 84
5. The Russian Stance on Arctic Territorial Conflicts 94
The Soviet Historical Referent: The 1926 Decree 95
Russian Claims on the Arctic Continental Shelf 98
The Russian-U.S. Agreement on the Bering and Chukchi Seas 102
The Issue of the Barents Sea and Its Resolution 104
The Dispute over the Svalbard Archipelago and Spitsbergen 106
6. Projecting Military Power in the Arctic 113
The Russian Army Still Lost in Transition 114
Upgrading the Northern Fleet and the Nuclear Deterrence 119
Russia’s Renewed Security Activism in the Arctic 124
7. Resource Nationalism vs. Patterns of Cooperation 135
Beyond the Metrics of the “Arctic Bonanza” 136
Russia’s Oil and Gas Strategies in the Arctic 139
The Costs and Risks of Arctic-Based Energy 145
Foreign Actors and the Russian State: Competition
or Cooperation? 147
The Arctic as a Mineral Eldorado? 151
Hopes for Reviving the Fishing Industry 154
8. Unlocking the Arctic? Shipping Along the
Northern Sea Route 168
Sovereignty Issues in the Russian Straits 169
Hopes for an International Trade Lane via the
Northern Sea Route 174
Ice Without Hype: The Harsh Realities of Arctic Shipping 176
A More Realistic Future: The Sevmorput' as a
Domestic Route 181
Modernizing the Fleet and the Shipyard Sector 183
Conclusion 198
Bibliography 215
Index 231
About the Author 253
List of Maps and Tables
Maps
The Arctic Ocean xii
Arctic Boundaries xiii
Classification of Russian Northern Federal Subjects 30
Indigenous Language Families in Russia 34
Population of Arctic and Siberian Cities 52
Net Migration by Region in Russia, 1989–2000 59
Temperature Changes in Russia from 1970 to 2000 72
Projected Temperature Changes in Russia for 2050 78
Russian Territorial Disputes in the
Arctic Ocean 101
Resources in the Russian Federation 144
The Northern Sea Route 173
Tables
2.1 Arctic Indigenous Groups in the 2010 Population Census 36
7.1 The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey Estimates of
Undiscovered Oil and Gas of Russia’s Northern Regions 137
vii

Introduction
Long dismissed as a frozen wasteland, the Arctic has recently come under
increasing scrutiny, for better and for worse. Moving from the realm of the
unknown to the known, from the marginal to at times central, it has been
bumped up to front-page treatment, replete with superlatives: the most north-
erly region, the coldest one, the region with the longest nights and longest
days, the world’s most fragile ecosystem, the region richest in hydrocarbons,
and so on. The hype is often backed up with multiple historical references,
as though the new configurations of the twenty-first century need to be ex-
plained in familiar terms in order to be understood. Strategic issues are thus
framed using historical journalistic parallels. These include the conquest of
the West (Arctic as the New Western Frontier), the Cold War (the Ice Cold
War), or the Great Game in Central Asia at the end of the nineteenth century
(Arctic as the New Great Game). The economic drivers, often presented
without taking into account changes in the market, new technologies, and
knowledge of private actors, are evoked using the filter of the Gold Rush
(the Rush to the Arctic).1
At the other end of the spectrum, that of environmental concerns, the mes-
sages target emotional sensitivity to nature and wildlife, such as a National
Geographic photo of a polar bear, the quintessential symbol of the Arctic,
trapped on a melting ice floe.2 Expected climate change is indeed an im-
portant driver in the global picture of the Arctic. It already heavily impacts
human activities in this region and will continue to do so, either encouraging
more human presence, or making the region increasingly inhospitable and
unpredictable. The future of the Arctic in international affairs is not, however,
limited to debates on climate change. Once the hype has ended, the Arctic
will certainly remain important in world affairs. Various countries’ warships
and submarines will continue to cross paths in the Arctic Ocean; the fragile
ecosystems of local populations and wildlife will need international oversight
and protection; potentially profitable exploitation of the subsoil or of water
resources could begin despite extreme conditions; and use of the “Trans-
Arctic Air Corridor” by the air traffic linking North America, Eurasia, and
ix