RURAL DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES: SYSTEM DYNAMICS EX ANTE - US

202 Pages·2009·1.29 MB·English

RURAL DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES:
SYSTEM DYNAMICS EX ANTE DECISION SUPPORT FOR
AGRICULTURAL INITIATIVES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO

A Thesis
Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School
of Cornell University
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Professional Studies
International Agriculture and Rural Development

by
Keenan Clay McRoberts
January 2010
© 2010 Keenan Clay McRoberts
ABSTRACT

A persistent problem facing rural communities in the Gulf region of
Mexico is the low profitability of agriculture. In order to improve the short and
long-term economic security of households in these rural communities, value
addition to agricultural products is proposed by farmers and by professionals
for niche markets. Correspondingly, collective action in the form of rural
marketing cooperatives may provide a means to augment household profits
from sales of value-added products.
The ex ante assessment of this challenge, like others that are similarly
complex, is undertaken using system dynamics methods. In response to an
institutional request, researchers and development practitioners at the Instituto
Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP)
Xalapa team were trained in introductory systems thinking and dynamic
modeling techniques during a three-month, institutional capacity-building
course. When combined with INIFAP’s repertoire of technology and data
assessment tools, short course results suggested that system dynamics could
help fortify institutional capacity, especially ex ante problem assessment
capabilities.
A form of participatory model building in which small teams of course
participants complete the modeling process for selected dynamic problems
was incorporated into the short course. The teams achieved varying success
in the study and development of conceptual models and in building incipient
simulation models. The relative success of these learning-by-modeling
problem assessments reflected favorably on the high initial capacity and
motivation of the INIFAP-Xalapa team. This interdisciplinary team could
become an innovator in leading group model building initiatives to develop
more insightful alternative approaches for confronting complex agricultural
research and development problems and issues.
Course participants also completed group model building exercises and
contributed expert knowledge to improve a system dynamics model designed
to assess impacts on farmer profits of value-added agricultural production by a
smallholder marketing cooperative. The dynamic biophysical and
socioeconomic model consists of nine components that represent the
aggregate community flock and a value addition and marketing cooperative.
The primary objective of the model was to assess strategies to increase the
profitability of caprine production in highland communities. This adaptable
model was designed as an ex ante impact assessment mechanism for INIFAP
to evaluate policies and the associated opportunities and limitations of value
addition.
The analysis indicates that manufacture of value-added products from
goat’s milk by a rural dairy cooperative could increase community net income
from caprine activities under a wide variety of environmental and market
conditions. Increases in net income would be especially important during the
dry season, when cooperative dividend payments could partially mitigate
seasonality from typical other income sources. Model sensitivity analyses
demonstrated that the exogenous effects of seasonal rainfall on forage supply
are more important to system performance than endogenous feedback within
the system. System performance was measured primarily by elements that
likely influence farmer and cooperative decision-making: profitability of the
community goat flock, cooperative solvency time, dividend payments, and
cancelled orders for aged cheese.
The analysis also indicated potential risks and those factors that could
limit cooperative success. The most important of such factors include the size
and reliability of the market for premium aged cheese, the cooperative’s
payments for milk and dividends, milk production costs, cheese production
costs, and the composition and productivity of the goat flock. These factors,
and forage quality, should receive priority in future research and
implementation.
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Keenan McRoberts grew up on a farm and exotic animal ranch in
western Nebraska. He received his B.S. in biochemistry from the University of
Nebraska-Lincoln. He then worked from 2001 to 2005 in northern Nicaragua
as an Agriculture Extension Volunteer and Agriculture Technical Trainer with
the Peace Corps. He entered the MPS program in International Agriculture
and Rural Development at Cornell University in 2006. He started a doctoral
program in Animal Science at Cornell University in summer 2009.
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To the INIFAP Team in Xalapa, Veracruz.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Mil gracias al equipo de INIFAP en Xalapa por haberme recibido en
verano de 2007. Su dedicación al desarrollo de Veracruz es impresionante.
Les agradezco por haber abierto las puertas de su equipo para trabajar en
colaboración de beneficio mutuo conmigo. Ojalá que el curso y los modelos
que ustedes desarrollaron les haya servido. Su dedicación fue registrada por
su participación entusiasta y por su voluntad de aprender y aplicar los
métodos de dinámica de sistemas juntos con otras herramientas que ya se
utilizaron. Les deseo muy buena suerte con la dinámica de sistemas.

Very special thanks go out to my parents Wayne and Cathie and my
sister Carmen and brother-in-law Ryan for all the love and energy put toward
being patient and supportive of me throughout this process! Thank you so
much.
Many thanks go out to my advisors, Dr. Robert Blake, Dr. Charles
Nicholson, and Dr. Terry Tucker. Your patience, support, and guidance have
been instrumental in my thesis progress and personal development. Dr. Blake
masterminded the idea to undertake summer research by offering the
introductory course in system dynamics to INIFAP, which made the whole
project an enjoyable and successful one. In addition, Dr. Nicholson’s
dedication, constructive questioning, and passion for system dynamics in
international agriculture applications have constantly been motivating factors
for me during the past few years. My former officemate and friend Omar
Cristóbal was also a source of mutual personal and professional support as
we plodded semi-simultaneously through our master’s projects.
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Finally, thank you to the Latin American Studies Program of the Mario
Einaudi Center for International Studies at Cornell University for providing me
with a summer travel grant to support my travels for collaboration with INIFAP
in Xalapa, Veracruz.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Biographical Sketch .......................................................................................... iii
Dedication ....................................................................................................... iv
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ v
Table of Contents ............................................................................................vii
List of Figures ................................................................................................... x
List of Tables ...................................................................................................xii
List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xiii
Preface ...........................................................................................................xiv
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................... 1
1.1 Collective Action for Value-Addition and Marketing ........................ 2
1.2 Ex Ante Problem Assessment ........................................................... 4
1.3 Goals and Objectives .......................................................................... 7
1.4 Thesis Organization ............................................................................ 9
CHAPTER 2: METHODS ............................................................................... 11
2.1 Introduction to System Dynamics ................................................... 11
2.1.1 System Dynamics Modeling ....................................................... 12
2.1.2 System Dynamics Perspective ................................................... 14
2.1.3 Dynamic Modeling Critiques ....................................................... 16
2.1.4 Group Model Building ................................................................. 18
2.1.5 Quantitative versus Qualitative System Dynamics ...................... 20
2.1.6 System Dynamics Modeling Process .......................................... 21
2.2 Professional Short Course on System Dynamics .......................... 23
2.2.1 Course Objectives ...................................................................... 24
2.2.2 Course Location .......................................................................... 24
2.2.3 Course Equipment, Supplies and Learning Materials ................. 25
2.2.4 Course Participants .................................................................... 25
2.2.5 Course Structure ......................................................................... 25
2.3 Value-Added Cooperative Model ..................................................... 28
2.3.0.1 Model History ..................................................................... 28
2.3.0.2 Micoxtla Background .......................................................... 29
2.3.0.3 Micoxtla Economic Activities .............................................. 30
2.3.1 Problem Description ................................................................... 31
2.3.1.1 Reference Mode ................................................................. 32
2.3.1.2 Model Purpose ................................................................... 34
2.3.2 Model Conceptualization ............................................................ 35
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