Regionalizing Global Climate Variations: A Study of the Southeastern US Regional Climate

326 Pages·2020·62.215 MB·English

by  Vasubandhu Misra

Regionalizing Global
Climate Variations
A Study of the Southeastern
US Regional Climate
Vasubandhu Misra
Elsevier
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Dedicated to my parents Rajalakshmi and Promode
Preface
This book is borne from my close interaction with several stakeholder-scientist part-
nerships like the Florida Water and Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA), the Southeast
Climate Consortium (SECC) and a course that I have been teaching in the Meteorol-
ogy graduate program at the Florida State University for the past decade. The course,
as it evolved over time, contrary to its rather parochial title of “Regional Hydoclima-
tology of the Southeastern US” began to encompass discussions of the global climate
in a significant fraction of the class lectures. Indeed, climate has no borders.
As I began to develop my class notes from these lectures I realized that there is
an opportunity for writing a textbook like this to understand the regional context of
climate. Additionally, the countries around the world and provinces within some of
these nations have been investing considerable resources to produce volumes of cli-
mate assessment reports because they have identified a need for it. U. S. A. is a prime
example of this with its national and regional climate assessment efforts. These as-
sessment reports are often regional in their focus. And yet we do not have a formal
textbook in the subject area of regional climate. This textbook is a humble start that
scopes the spatio-temporal scales to arrive at the regional context of climate for the
Southeastern US. There is a growing interest to regionalize the global climate predic-
tions and projections, as that is where a majority of the future “actionable science”
resides. The book offers guidance to regional climate in general and the characteristic
features of the Southeastern US climate in particular.
The Southeastern US is a unique cardinal quadrant of US. It has the longest
coastline, is undergoing rapid change in demography, rapidly expanding climate and
weather sensitive industries (e.g., agriculture, tourism, fisheries, healthcare, renew-
able energy), all of which are bound to raise the demand for greater understanding and
improving our anticipation of changes in weather and climate in the Southeastern US.
Given its wide span across latitudes and longitudes, the Southeastern US is also home
to many of the Billion Dollar disasters like land-falling tropical cyclones, tornado
outbreaks, droughts, and calamities from other severe weather phenomenon like thun-
derstorms, which also pedagogically covers a wide range of subject matter to cover.
The book takes a holistic approach to explain the regional climate of the South-
eastern US by equally emphasizing the ocean, the land, and the atmospheric compo-
nents of the climate system and their mutual interactions. The book is not to be used
as an encyclopedia for the Southeastern US climate but as a resource to begin appre-
ciating the complexity of interpreting regional climate variations, especially that of
the Southeastern US climate. This textbook is geared for a semester long course of-
fering, which gives a limited time span to cover a very broad topic, contrary to what
the title of the book may suggest. Therefore, careful thought has been given to what
is included in the textbook from the years of research that I have conducted on the
Southeastern US climate. Readers are however encouraged to follow the references
on the topics for further reading. Regionalizing climate information is going to be
xi
xii Preface
topical for as long as there is a consumer demand for weather and climate informa-
tion. The demand for regional climate information is anticipated to grow with a more
weather and climate aware demography, which makes this a prime time to train our
students in variations and change of the regional climate.
I have been lucky to be associated with very intelligent, thoughtful people through-
out my professional career who have constantly helped me to understand my subject
matter. Although these interactions are still ongoing and I continue to benefit from it,
I will take this opportunity to thank several of my students, post-docs, and research
scientists who have worked in my lab including Dr. Akhilesh Mishra, Dr. Steven
Chan, Dr. Amit Bhardwaj, Dr. Satish Bastola, Dr. Haiqin Li, Dr. Lydia Stefanova, Dr.
Nirupam Karmakar, Dr. J. -P. Michael, Dr. Christopher Selman, Dr. Michael Kozar,
Steven DiNapoli, colleagues of my current employer at the Department of Earth,
Ocean, and Atmospheric Science and the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction
Studies of the Florida State University, and friends at the Florida Water and Climate
Alliance, Florida Climate Institute, and at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere
Studies, George Mason University, where I pursued my early years of professional
life. Of course, this book would not have been completed without the constant sup-
port of my wife, Charu, and my daughter, Mallika who made the sacrifice of living
with my diverted attention while I was engaged in writing this book. The idea of
writing this book originally came from my father, Promode, who gave me constant
encouragement and generously shared his years of wisdom to bring this endeavor
to fruition. I also wish to thank all the funding agencies who have funded my work
over the years including the US Department of Interior (DOI), the US Department
of Agriculture (USDA), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US
National Science Foundation (NSF), the South Florida Water Management District
(SFWMD), and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), India.
Abbreviations
ACE Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ACF Apalachicola-Chattahoochee Flint
AET Actual Evapotranspiration
AGCM Atmospheric General Circulation Model
AMJ April-May-June
AMM Atlantic Meridional Mode
AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
AMSR-E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System
AR4 Assessment Report version 4
AR5 Assessment Report version 5
ASO August-September-October
AWP Atlantic Warm Pool
CAPE Convectively Available Potential Energy
CBO Congressional Budget Office
CCSM4 Community Climate System Model version 4
CLIVAR US Climate Variability and Predictability
CPC Climate Prediction Center
CF Central Florida
CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3
CLLJ Caribbean Low Level Jet
CONUS Continental United States
DJF December-January-February
DOI Department of Interior
EDT Eastern Daylight Time
EF Enhanced Fujita
EEMD Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
ENSO El Niño and the Southern Oscillation
EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function
EPWP Eastern Pacific Warm Pool
ERSST Extended Reynolds SST version 3
ET Evapotranspiration
FPP Fujita-Pearson
GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory
GFS Global Forecast System
GHCND Global Historical Climatology Network Daily
GODAS Global Ocean Data Assimilation
GoM Gulf of Mexico
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GPLLJ Great Plains Low Level Jet
HCW Hazordous Convective Weather
HPC Hydrological Prediction Center’
xiii
xiv Abbreviations
HURDAT Hurricane Database
HURDAT2 Hurricane Database version 2
IAS Intra-Americas Seas
IKE Integrated Kinetic Energy
IPCC International Panel for Climate Change
IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone
JJA June-July-August
KBDI Keetch-Byram Drought Index
LAI Leaf Area Index
LFRB Lower Flint River Basin
LLJ Low-Level Jet
LOC Left of Track
LoCo Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling
LSEUS Left sector of Southeastern US
MAM March-April-May
MDR Main Development Region
MJJ May-June-July
MoES Ministry of Earth Sciences, India
MPI Maximum Potential Intensity
MSLP Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM Northern Annular Mode
NAO North Atlantic Oscillation
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Agency
NASH North Atlantic Subtropical High
NCA National Climate Assessment
NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information
NCEP-DOE National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy
NCEP-NCAR National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for
Atmospheric Research
NF North Florida
NH Northern Hemisphere
NHC National Hurricane Center
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NPSH North Pacific Subtropical High
NSF National Science Foundation
NSIPP1 NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project version 1
NSSL National Severe Storms Laboratory
NWS National Weather Service
OGCM Ocean General Circulation Model
OISST Optimally Interpolated SST version 2
ONI Oceanic Niño Index
PAC Partial cumulative Anomaly Curve
PC Principal Component
PDI Power Dissipation Index
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index
Abbreviations xv
PF Peninsular Florida
PBL Planetary Boundary Layer
PET Potential Evapotranspiration
PIZA Population Interaction Zones for Agriculture
PNA Pacific North American
PSA Pacific-South American
PV Potential Vorticity
QG Quasi-Geostrophy
R1 NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis version 1
R2 NCEP-DOE Reanalysis version 2
RCM Regional Climate Model
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
RET Reference Evapotranspiration
ROC Right of Track
RSEUS Right Sector of Southeastern US
RSPF Rainy Season over Peninsular Florida
SCOV Standard Covariance
SEUS Southeastern US
SeF Southeast Florida
SFWMD South Florida Water Management District
SH Southern Hemisphere
SHIPS Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System
SLP Sea Level Pressure
SLR Sea Level Rise
SODA Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 2.1.6
SOI Southern Oscillation Index
SON September-October-November
SPC Storm Prediction Center
SPI Standard Precipitation Index
SRESA1B Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B
SST Sea Surface Temperature
SSTA Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
SwF Southwest Florida
TAVE Tamaulipas-Veracruz
TC Tropical Cyclone
TIKE Track Integrated Kinetic Energy
TNA Tropical North Atlantic
TS Tropical Storm
US United States of America
UMT University of Montana soil moisture algorithm
USDA US Department of Agriculture
USDA-ERS US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
USDM US Drought Monitor
VUA-NASA Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam-National Aeronautics and Space
Administration Land Parameter retrieval model
WCRP World Climate Research Program
WHWP Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
WMO World Meteorological Organization
CHAPTER
1
Regional climate in a
global context
Chapter outline
1.1 Climate without borders ..........................................................................................1
1.2 What is southeastern United States? .......................................................................5
1.3 The basis for regional climate ................................................................................6
1.4 Features of standing eddies ....................................................................................7
1.5 Generation of stationary waves ............................................................................11
1.6 A practical application of standing waves ............................................................13
1.1 Climate without borders
The concept of regional climate is somewhat of a theoretical construct and therefore a
bit elusive. The notion that regional climate can have boundaries expressed by the out-
line of the regional domain is misleading. After all, climate of a region (i.e., regional
climate) is part of a continuous system of fluid (air and water) circulation around our
planet that supports the truism of “climate without borders.” Regional climate is there-
fore a manifestation of a part of a continuous global climate system in a specific region.
This regional display of the general circulation can, however, be modulated by local
processes, typical to the region. In such instances, regionalization of the global climate
is an important driver to understand the variations and potential change of the regional
climate. In other instances, local processes of a region may not be as dominant, for a
variety of reasons, thereby amplifying the role of the general circulation in dictating
the regional climate. In either instance, regional climate studies imply a recognition
of the influence of the general circulation and the interplay with the local processes.
The practical implication of regional climate studies is immense as it often can
lead to “actionable science.” The appetite for understanding, predicting, and pro-
jecting regional climate variations for application in a variety of sectors is huge.
For example, the value of regional forecasts for emergency evacuation at times of
severe weather (e.g., landfalling tropical cyclones) is apparent. In a more long-term
sense, if the likelihood of prolonged droughts or increased frequency of heat waves
is projected for a region in a future climate, then effective water management poli-
cies and shelters can be built to mitigate the potential impact of such events. The
value of the regional forecasts that target sub-seasonal, seasonal to interannual time
scales is equally invaluable to manage, for example, water and energy resources,
public health, etc. On the other hand, the practical value of global mean quantities
like global mean surface temperature has insignificant impact for making regional
1
Regionalizing Global Climate Variations. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821826-6.00001-1
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.