Pulse: the new science of harnessing Internet buzz to track threats and opportunities

207 Pages·2011·3.883 MB·English

by  Hubbard, Douglas W

P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
ii
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
Pulse
i
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
ii
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
Pulse
The New Science of Harnessing
Internet Buzz to Track Threats
and Opportunities
DOUGLAS W. HUBBARD
JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.
iii
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
Copyright©2011byDouglasW.Hubbard.Allrightsreserved.
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.
PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,or
transmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,
recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe
1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthe
Publisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetothe
CopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,
[phone], fax [phone], or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests
tothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,
JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,[phone],
fax [phone], or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheir
besteffortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswith
respecttotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecifically
disclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.No
warrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials.
Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.You
shouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernorauthor
shallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnot
limitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages.
Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,
pleasecontactourCustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat
[phone],outsidetheUnitedStatesat(317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthat
appearsinprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.Formoreinformationabout
Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Hubbard,DouglasW.,1962–
Pulse:thenewscienceofharnessinginternetbuzztotrackthreatsand
opportunities/DouglasW.Hubbard.
p.cm.
Includesindex.
ISBN978-0-470-93236-0(cloth);ISBN978-111-8-06376-7(ebk);
ISBN978-111-8-06377-4(ebk);ISBN978-111-8-06378-1(ebk)
1.Marketingresearch–Computernetworkresources. 2.Internetresearch.
3.Businessforecasting. I.Title.
HF5415.2.H77752011
658.8(cid:2)302854678–dc22
2010050399
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
iv
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
My dedication for my third book is very similar to my
earlier books. I am entirely motivated to write for and
by my family: Janet, Evan, Madeleine, and Steven.
And once again, I would also like to dedicate this to my
personal friends and colleagues in all branches of the
U.S. Military for all their sacrifices.
v
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
vi
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
PART I INTRODUCTION TO THE PULSE: A NEW KIND
OF INSTRUMENT
CHAPTER1 A New Era for Measuring
and Predicting Society 3
An Emerging Science: What Is This New Thing? 6
What The Pulse Isn’t 8
The Major Areas of the Macro-Pulse 12
What Does All of This Mean for Us? 14
Notes 15
CHAPTER2 The History of Seeing the Forest through the Trees 17
The King’s Surveys 18
The Dawn of Stats, Theme-Maps, and Telegraphs 20
The Rise of the Machines 25
The Struggle to Become a Science 28
Notes 31
CHAPTER3 Emergence of the Pulse and the New Research
Discipline 33
Ubiquitous Use of the Internet 34
Digital Lives: Increasing Time and Activities per
Person 39
Open Pastures: A New Field of Research 45
vii
P1:OTA/XYZ P2:ABC Trim: 6in×9in
JWBT485-fm JWBT485-Hubbard March15,2011 15:11 PrinterName: Courier/Westford
viii Contents
Proving the Pulse: Addressing Misconceptions about
the Data 47
Notes 52
CHAPTER4 Dynamics of the Pulse 53
Incentives: Why the Pulse Exists 53
The Systems behind Getting and Sharing Data 55
Collaboration and Competition 58
Power Law: Why a Few Sources Tell Us a Lot
on the Internet 59
Notes 63
PART II SOURCES OF THE PULSE
CHAPTER5 What Our Surfing Says 67
Tracking Flu Outbreaks: A Faster, Better, and
Cheaper Method 68
A Do-It-Yourself Pulse Tracking Example: Using
Google Trends for Economic Predictions 73
More Searchology: The Body of Research Grows 81
Caveats and Miscellaneous Considerations for
Searchologists 84
Notes 87
CHAPTER6 “Friend” as a Verb 89
How Do Social Networks Matter? 90
The Dynamic Duo of Social Connections: Two
Leaders in Practical Network Research 92
Forecasting the Crowd 97
Social Networks in the Pulse 98
Notes 104
CHAPTER7 What We Say Online Matters 107
An Introduction to Analyzing Buzz: Counting Tweets
Predicts Movie Box Office Receipts 108
Predicting the Broader Economy with Tweets 112