Preparing for an Aging World

327 Pages·2001·1.19 MB·English

by  Panel on a Research Agenda and New Data for an Aging World

PREPARING FOR AN
AGING WORLD
THE CASE FOR CROSS-NATIONAL RESEARCH
Panel on a Research Agenda and New Data
for an Aging World
Committee on Population
and
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW • Washington, DC 20418
Notice: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their
special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was funded primarily by NIH Contract No. N01-OD-4-2139 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services. Additional funding was provided by the
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
Suggested citation: National Research Council (2001) Preparing for an Aging World: The Case
for Cross-National Research, Panel on a Research Agenda and New Data for an Aging World,
Committee on Population and Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Preparing for an aging world : the case for cross-national research /
Panel on a Research Agenda and New Data for an Aging World, Committee on
Population and Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral
and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-07421-5 (pbk.)
1. Aging—Research. 2. Aged—Economic conditions. 3. Aged—Health
and hygiene. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on a Research
Agenda and New Data for an Aging World.
HQ1061 .D317 2001
305.23’072—dc21
2001002008
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academy Press, 2101 Consti-
tution Avenue, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; [phone] or [phone]
(in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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PANEL ON A RESEARCH AGENDA
AND NEW DATA FOR AN AGING WORLD
F. THOMAS JUSTER (Chair), Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
RICHARD BLUNDELL, Department of Economics, University College
London, United Kingdom
RICHARD V. BURKHAUSER, Department of Policy Analysis and
Management, Cornell University
GRAZIELLA CASELLI, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche,
Università di Roma “La Sapienza,” Italy
LINDA P. FRIED, Welch Center for Prevention, The Johns Hopkins
University
ALBERT I. HERMALIN, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
ROBERT L. KAHN, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
ARIE KAPTEYN, Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, the
Netherlands
MICHAEL MARMOT, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health,
University College, London, United Kingdom
LINDA G. MARTIN, The Population Council, New York City
DAVID MECHANIC, Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and
Aging Research, Rutgers University
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT WALLACE, Department of Preventive Medicine, University of
Iowa
ROBERT J. WILLIS, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
DAVID WISE, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard
University, and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
ZENG YI, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, and
Institute of Population Research, Peking University
NIKOLAI BOTEV, Liaison, Population Activities Unit, United Nations
Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva
Staff
KEVIN KINSELLA, Study Director
ELIZABETH WALLACE, Project Assistant
BRIAN TOBACHNICK, Project Assistant
BARNEY COHEN, Director, Committee on Population
v
Consultants
ROB ALESSIE, Department of Economics, Free University of
Amsterdam
JAMES BANKS, Institute for Fiscal Studies, London
AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN, Department of Economics, University of
Mannheim, Germany
DAVID CUTLER, Department of Economics, Harvard University
TULLIO JAPPELLI, University of Salerno, Italy
YUKINOBU KITAMURA, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi
University, Tokyo
FRANCO PERACCHI, Tor Vergata University, Rome
LUIGI PISTAFERRI, Stanford University
NORIYUKI TAKAYAMA, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi
University, Tokyo
SARAH TANNER, Institute for Fiscal Studies, London
ELIANA VIVIANO, Bank of Italy, Milan
vi
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
JANE MENKEN (Chair), Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of
Colorado, Boulder
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,* Department of Anthropology, Northwestern
University
JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York City
ELLEN BRENNAN-GALVIN, Population Division, United Nations,
New York City
JOHN N. HOBCRAFT, Population Investigation Committee, London
School of Economics
F. THOMAS JUSTER, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan, Ann Arbor
CHARLES B. KEELY, Department of Demography, Georgetown
University
DAVID I. KERTZER, Department of Anthropology, Brown University
DAVID A. LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor
LINDA G. MARTIN,* The Population Council, New York City
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,* The Population Council, New York City,
and Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony
Brook
W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population and Family Health
Sciences, Johns Hopkins University
ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University
of Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO,* Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
KENNETH W. WACHTER, Department of Demography, University of
California, Berkeley
LINDA J. WAITE, Population Research Center, University of Chicago
BARNEY COHEN, Director
*Through October 1999.
vii
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2000-2001
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of
Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Institute of Policy Research, Northwestern
University
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of
Pennsylvania
JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon
University
ROBERT M. GROVES, University of Michigan and Joint Program in
Survey Methodology, University of Maryland
HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations, New
York
JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, The University of Iowa
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of
Michigan
THOMAS A. LOUIS, RAND, Washington, D.C.
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern
University
EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of
Washington
DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories-Research, Florham Park, New
Jersey
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of
California, Davis
RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of
Michigan
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
viii
Preface
Nearly two decades have elapsed since the United Nations convened
the First World Assembly on Aging (Vienna, 1982). During that period,
researchers have made enormous progress toward understanding vari-
ous dimensions of the human aging process, from the molecular level
upwards to the global population level. As our knowledge has expanded,
we have come to better appreciate the dynamic nature of the aging process
and to recognize the many unanswered questions that urgently need
attention. On the eve of the Second World Assembly on Aging (Madrid,
2002), we hope this volume helps focus ongoing and future research in
several important arenas.
I would like to thank, first and foremost, my fellow panelists. Drawn
from a variety of academic disciplines, most have studied one or more
aspects of aging for the bulk of their careers. Each member contributed to
the study by providing background readings, leading discussions, making
presentations, and critically commenting on the various report drafts. The
different perspectives that members brought to the table were instrumen-
tal in synthesizing ideas and forging agreement on overarching recom-
mendations.
Drafting the final report was a uniquely collaborative enterprise. The
panel divided itself into five working groups, corresponding to the major
substantive content areas—labor force participation; income, wealth and
saving; family structure and intergenerational transfers; health and dis-
ability; and subjective well being. Each of the panel members made sig-
ix