POWER, STRATEGY AND SUCCESS IN MILITARY OCCUPATIONS Anthony S. Marcum, Do

393 Pages·2015·2.21 MB·English

ABSTRACT

Title of Dissertation: TO DICTATE THE PEACE: POWER, STRATEGY AND
SUCCESS IN MILITARY OCCUPATIONS

Anthony S. Marcum, Doctor of Philosophy, 2015

Dissertation directed by: Professor Paul Huth
Department of Government and Politics

The dissertation addresses the following question: why do some states win a war only to
lose the occupation whereas other states can successfully impose their preferred outcome
via the control of foreign territory? For example, compare the United States’ failure in
Iraq (2003-2008) to the Allied Powers’ success in France (1815-1818). To explain this
variation, I develop and test a principal-agent model in which I incorporate the occupied
elite’s costs of compliance and the occupier’s strategies of control. As agents, the
occupied elites expect to incur significant domestic and international costs if they consent
to the occupier’s demands, and thus have strong incentives to not comply. The occupying
state can overcome this hostility through a costly exercise of power to shape the choices
and manipulate the incentives of elites to influence their decision-making. Occupying
states that engage in dictating as a strategy of control are compelling the elites to make a
costly choice. By constraining the choice set to compliance or non-compliance with its
terms, the occupying power can effectively separate strongly adverse elites from
moderately or weakly adverse ones, and thereby gain a commitment to its objectives.
Although previous work on occupations recognizes the difficulties in achieving success,
the costs of compliance to the elite and the occupiers’ strategy of control are largely
overlooked in previous scholarship.
To evaluate the theoretical argument, I employ two research methods in the
project. First, I built an original dataset to test the effects of the costs of compliance and
the strategies of control on the outcomes of 137 military occupations that result from
interstate wars between 1815 and 2003. The statistical analyses are paired with two
plausibility probes: the Chilean Occupation of Peru (1881-1883) and the Soviet
Occupation of North Korea (1945-1948). Second, I examine in-depth the American
Occupation of Japan from 1945 to 1952. The case study investigates how the costs of
compliance – across regime change, economic stabilization, and rearmament – generated
resistance among Japanese politicians, and how the Americans exercised their power to
dictate that the former comply with the latter’s costly terms during the course of the
occupation.
TO DICTATE THE PEACE:
POWER, STRATEGY AND SUCCESS
IN MILITARY OCCUPATIONS

by

Anthony S. Marcum

Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the
University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
2015

Advisory Committee:

Professor Paul Huth, Chair
Professor Sarah Croco
Professor I. M. Destler, Dean’s Representative
Professor Scott Kastner
Professor George Quester
© Copyright by

Anthony S. Marcum

2015
For Katie
Acknowledgements

Writing a dissertation can be dark and lonely business. It is best done with good
mentorship and excellent companions. Paul Huth has served as a model dissertation
adviser over the years. He let me roam the field searching for the next case, and provided
the right insights at a number of critical phases in the project. Scott Kastner, George
Quester, and Sarah Croco have greatly contributed to the improvement of the project,
lending their skills and advice throughout its development. Prof. I. M. Destler agreed to
serve as my Dean’s Representative during the final phases of the project. I want to thank
for his interest in the project, especially his knowledge on the case of Japan.
Next, I would like to thank a number of institutions that helped in the gathering of
evidence for the dataset. At McKeldin Library, I earned a reputation as a ‘heavy
borrower’ who ordered any and all obscure manuscripts by the dozens over the years.
The librarians and staff were exemplary in their efforts to meet my numerous requests. At
the British Public Archives, a number of staff members freely gave their time and advice
in assisting with my search. My efforts would not have been nearly as successful without
their guidance. The library staff at Tufts University provided some much needed
assistance in acquiring a particular manuscript. Their generosity allowed my wife to
acquire a copy of a crucial dissertation, and for that I am grateful. At the University of
Cologne, the librarians accepted my unsteady German and frequent requests with peaked
interest.
I want to thank a number of individuals who have helped and inspired me along
the way. First, at the department, Ann Marie and Cissy have always made me feel right at
home. Their support and friendship throughout graduate school were essential to my
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success. I was especially fortunate during my time at Maryland to work with James M.
Glass and the College Park Scholars International Studies Program. Jim let me work with
the program for several years. His experience and advice were invaluable for an aspiring
teaching scholar. Next, Prof. Morhad Eghbal has been quite generous with his time and
energy over the last few years. His wisdom and enthusiasm always came at the crucial
moments, whether during the car rides to and from the airport, or enjoying a dinner with
his wonderful family.
From Purdue University, I want to thank Ann Marie Clark and James McCann for
their encouragement and kindness. I owe a special thanks to Melissa Buehler. Mel knew I
could do it, even when I was not sure of that myself. From my days as an undergraduate,
Prof. Donna Schlagheck and Prof. Laura Luehrmann provided the necessary
encouragement for me to become a professor. I only hope that I can be as successful a
mentor to my students as they were to me. I especially want to thank Prof. Kathleen
Myers. The hours spent discussing the finer points of diplomatic and military history of
Southeast Asia remain some of my fondest memories from Wright State. I hope chapter
five meets your expectations.
My friends have been especially important in completing this project. Jon Brown
has been especially vital. We met in August 2005 for our first teaching assignment, and
then soon discovered that we shared similar intellectual interests in realism and history.
His willingness to entertain my ideas and to provide the right amount of encouragement
to pursue them made the whole process that much better. I also want to thank Alex,
Andy, Christina, Dave, Katherine, Kevin, Jim, Josh, and Steve. Over the years, each of
you has contributed in one way or another to the project, even if you did not realize it.
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My family has provided their enduring support over the years. My parents have
been encouraging, in more ways than they will probably ever know. My interest in
military and diplomatic history stems from a conversation with father in December 1990,
during the build up to the initial Gulf War. Even after twenty-five years, I am still trying
to understand why states fight. That persistence and patience comes from my mother,
who reminded me to go as far as I needed to find what I was looking for. My brother
Luke instinctively understood the process, and made sure we talked about anything else.
My sister Abby always asked the pertinent question: is it done yet.
Finally, I have saved the most important thank for last: Katherine M. Simpson.
Katie, you are an inspiration. You are my best friend, my greatest competitor, and my
perfect partner. Thank you for being here with me. The dissertation is as much yours as it
is mine.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... ii
List of Tables ................................................................................................................... vii
List of Figures ................................................................................................................. viii
Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................1
Between War and Peace: Military Occupations in the Modern International System ... 4
A Central Dilemma for Peace: Occupied Elites and the Costs of Compliance ............ 10
Power Politics and the Establishment of the Victor’s Peace ........................................ 15
Exercising Power as Control ......................................................................................... 17
Organization of the Dissertation ................................................................................... 22
Chapter 2: Purgatory in International Politics: the Military Occupations
Dataset, 1815 – 2003 .........................................................................................................26
Conceptualizing Military Occupations ......................................................................... 26
Military Occupations and the Distribution of Sovereign Rights .................................. 36
Identifying the Universe of Cases ................................................................................. 44
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 54
Chapter 3: Power, Strategy, and Success in Military Occupations ..........................61
Clarifying the Vocabulary............................................................................................. 63
Enforcement in World Politics: Assumptions of the Model ......................................... 64
Selection, Costly Compliance, and the Principal-Agent Model in Military
Occupations............................................................................................................... 69
Power, Risk-taking, and the Strategic Nature of Costly Control .............................. 77
Autonomy & Influence: Strategies of Control as Power .......................................... 88
Strategies, Costs, and the likelihood of the Victor’s Peace ...................................... 93
Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 101
Chapter 4 Testing the Theory ...................................................................................103
The Unit of Analysis: Occupying Powers in Military Occupations ........................... 104
The Dependent Variable and the Statistical Model .................................................... 105
Identifying Success ................................................................................................. 106
Recognizing Failure ................................................................................................ 109
Primary Independent Variables ................................................................................... 112
Controlling for The Occupied Population ............................................................... 118
Control Variables ........................................................................................................ 122
The Empirical Results ................................................................................................. 128
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Costly Delays and Popular Leaders: the Chilean Occupation of Peru (1881-1883) and
the Soviet Occupation of North Korea (1945-1948) ................................................... 132
Interpreting the Independent and Control Variables ................................................... 137
Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 147
Chapter 5: Revisiting the American Occupation of Japan, 1945 to 1952 ..............148
Research Design and Methodology ............................................................................ 149
Retention of an Emperor and Constitution Reform .................................................... 153
Revealed Designs and the American Response ...................................................... 159
Adversity to Demands and Enforcing the Draft Constitution ................................. 163
Analysis: A Concession to Accommodate or the Power to Enforce ...................... 174
Aid, Economics, and Reviving the Workshop of Asia ............................................... 178
The Dodge Line and the Emerging Political Consequences ................................... 190
Analysis: Economic Recovery with High Compliance Costs ................................. 204
Peace, Security and Rearmament ................................................................................ 208
Negotiations among “Equals” ................................................................................. 216
Analysis: Dictating Rearmament over Recovery .................................................... 229
Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 238
Chapter 6: Conclusion ................................................................................................239
Summary of Theoretical and Empirical Discoveries .................................................. 240
Implications for Scholarship and Policymaking ......................................................... 245
Directions for Future Research ................................................................................... 250
Appendix A: Interstate Wars under Investigation for Military Occupations ..........254
Appendix B: Auxiliary Analysis for Identity and Democracy ...................................259
Appendix C: Military Occupations Dataset & Case Sources ....................................263
References ...................................................................................................................... 308

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