Powder River Basin and Northern/Central Appalachia Production Outlook Presentation to: Platts 35th Annual Coal Marketing Days Conference Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania September 21, 2012 Nick Bradley Alan K. Stagg Stagg Resource Consultants, Inc. CONTEXT Coal is a commodity. Within broad categories, coal is essentially fungible. Like all commodities, it is extremely sensitive to supply and demand issues. CONTEXT There is a multiplicity of factors affecting coal’s use – Economic Environmental Logistical Societal Political CONTEXT Coal miner’s, and all natural resource producers, by their very nature are optimistic. How else could you go back every day thinking that markets, conditions, and all the problems you faced yesterday will somehow be better today. COAL MINER’S CREED The coal always gets thicker under the hill. The parting always get thinner under the hill. Coal prices are going up the second quarter of next year. QUESTIONS POSED TODAY POWDER RIVER BASIN How have natural gas prices impacted PRB coal’s long- standing price advantage? What additional production issues might the basin face? How may exports play a role in the growth of coal production? QUESTIONS POSED TODAY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APP What challenges is eastern coal production facing? What might be the next big opportunities for CAPP coal? SETTING THE STAGE Demand is down Prices are down Production is down Employment is down SETTING THE STAGE The Boogie Man Increasingly restrictive regulatory challenges on both supply and demand sides Is there a War on Coal? Just the facts ma’am, just the facts
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