Population Change, Labor Markets, and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm

281 Pages·2007·2.23 MB·English

by  A. Mason and M. Yamaguchi (Eds.)

POPULATION CHANGE, LABOR MARKETS,
AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
TOWARDS ANEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM
CONTRIBUTIONS
TO
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
281
HonoraryEditors:
D.W.JORGENSON
J.TINBERGEN†
Editors:
B.BALTAGI
E.SADKA
D.WILDASIN
Amsterdam –Boston– Heidelberg– London– New York – Oxford
Paris – SanDiego– San Francisco– Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo
POPULATION CHANGE,
LABOR MARKETS,
AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM
Edited by
Andrew Mason
University ofHawaii– Manoa and the East-West Center,USA
MitoshiYamaguchi
Kobe University, Japan
2007
Amsterdam –Boston– Heidelberg– London– New York – Oxford
Paris – SanDiego– San Francisco– Singapore – Sydney – Tokyo
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CONTENTS
List ofContributors vii
Chapter1 Introduction 1
AndrewMason and Mitoshi Yamaguchi
Chapter2 Evolution ofRecentEconomic-Demographic
Modeling: ASynthesis 5
AllenC. Kelley and Robert M. Schmidt
Chapter3 A Century ofDemographic Change and Economic
Growth: The Asian Experience in Regional and
Temporal Perspective 39
AllenC. Kelley and Robert M. Schmidt
Chapter4 Demographic Dividends:The Past, the Present,
and the Future 75
AndrewMason
Chapter5 Demographic Change and Regional Economic Growth:
A Comparative Analysisof Japan and China 99
Tomoko Kinugasa,Wei Huang, and Mitoshi Yamaguchi
Chapter6 Job Opportunities for Older Workers: When Are
JobsFilled with External Hires? 133
Robert Hutchens
Chapter7 Skills, Wages, and the Employment of Older Workers 161
Naoki Mitani
Chapter8 Work-Life BalanceMeasures and Gender Division
of Labor 189
Akira Kawaguchi
Chapter9 Optimal Education PoliciesUnder an Equity–Efficiency
Trade-Off 211
Takashi Oshio
Chapter10 WhyAre Japanese Refusing toPaythe National
Pension Tax?: ASimultaneous Equation Analysis 243
MitoshiYamaguchi and Noriko Aoki
Author Index 265
Subject Index 269
v
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LIST OFCONTRIBUTORS
Andrew Mason is Professor of Economics, University of Hawaii at
Manoa, and Senior Fellow, Population and Health Studies, East-West
Center, Honolulu.
Mitoshi Yamaguchi is Professor of Economics, Graduate School
of Economics, Kobe University.
Noriko Aoki is a graduate student, Graduate School of Economics,
Kobe University.
Robert Hutchens is Professor of Economics, Department of Labor
Economics, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University.
Akira Kawaguchi is Professor of Economics, Faculty of Policy Studies,
Doshisha University.
Allen C. Kelley is Professor of Economics, Duke University.
TomokoKinugasaisAssociateProfessorofEconomics,GraduateSchool
of Economics, Kobe University.
NaokiMitaniisProfessorofEconomics,GraduateSchoolofEconomics,
Kobe University.
TakashiOshioisProfessorofEconomics,GraduateSchoolofEconomics,
Kobe University.
Robert M. Schmidt is Professor of Economics, University of Richmond.
Wei Huang is a Ph.D. candidate, Graduate School of Economics,
Kobe University.
vii
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CHAPTER1
Introduction
Andrew Mason and Mitoshi Yamaguchi
Population growth is in decline and populations are becoming older
throughout the world. Low fertility is the common factor behind both of
thesetrends.InmanyAsianandEuropeancountries,womenareaveraging
fewer than two births over their reproductive span and, often, closer to
one. With fertility so low, population decline is inevitable. Ever smaller
cohortsofbirthsareleadingtoeversmallercohortsofchildrenandyoung
adults, and eventually to populations in which the old greatly outnumber
theyoung.Reinforcingtheeffectsoflowfertilityarecontinuingimprove-
ments in life expectancy. In the past, mortality gains were achieved by
reducing death rates among infants and children. This is still true in the
world’spoorestcountries,butelsewheredeathratesamongtheyounghave
reachedverylowlevels.Furthergainsarebeingachievedbyreducingdeath
rates among the old, reinforcing the effects of fertility on population age
structure.Asaconsequence,themostrapidlygrowingdemographicgroups
in many countries are those in their 70s, 80s, and older.
The contributions to this volume are concerned primarily with the
economic implications of and the policy responses to these demographic
changes. The original papers were prepared as part of a Center of Excel-
lence (COE) research initiative, funded by the government of Japan and
carried out by the Graduate School of Economics Research Institute for
Economics and Business Administration at Kobe University. Leading
scholars from Japan and the United States were invited to prepare papers
on this common theme and to present them at the 4th International
Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association, co-sponsored by
theKobeUniversityCenterofExcellenceandheldattheAwajiYumebutai
International Conference Center in Awaji, Hyogo, Japan, during 17–18
December, 2005. The papers were refereed and revised in accordance
with the reviewers’ suggestions prior to being copyedited.
The issues addressed here are of interest everywhere, but they are
particularly salient in Japan. Japan has the highest life expectancy and
POPULATIONCHANGE,LABORMARKETS,ANDSUSTAINABLEGROWTH (cid:2)2007ElsevierLtd.
VOLUME281 ISSN0573-8555/DOI10.1016/S0573-8555(07)81001-7 Allrightsreserved.
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