Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia: The State of Affairs After the Global and European Crises PDF
Preview Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia: The State of Affairs After the Global and European Crises
Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia The State of Affairs after the Global and European Crises Edited by Masahiro Kawai, Yung Chul Park, and Charles Wyplosz 1 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries #OxfordUniversityPress2015 Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2015 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove TheviewsinthispublicationdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsian DevelopmentBankInstitute(ADBI),itsAdvisoryCouncil,ADB’sBoardorGovernors,orthe governmentsofADBmembers. ADBIdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsno responsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,or byusingtheterm“country”orothergeographicalnamesinthispublication,ADBIdoesnot intendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2014953040 ISBN 978–0–19–871415–6 Printedandboundby CPIGroup(UK)Ltd,Croydon,CR04YY LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. Contents ListofFigures vii ListofTables ix Abbreviations xi ListofContributors xv 1. Introduction 1 CharlesWyplosz 2. FinancialandMonetaryCooperationinEastAsia 11 MasahiroKawaiandYungChulPark 3. InternationalFinancialIntegrationandCrisisIntensity 52 AndrewK.Rose 4. LessonsfromtheEuropeanPublicDebtCrisis 79 CharlesWyplosz 5. AViewfromASEAN 102 ChalongphobSussangkarnandWorapotManupipatpong 6. AViewfromthePeople’sRepublicofChina 133 YongdingYu 7. AViewfromJapan 158 MasahiroKawai 8. AViewfromtheRepublicofKorea 198 YungChulParkandChi-YoungSong Index 223 List of Figures 2.1 GrosscapitalinflowsinEastAsiaexcludingJapan 13 2.2 ExportgrowthinEastAsia 14 2.3 GDPgrowthinEastAsia 15 2.4 RealeffectiveexchangeratesoftheEastAsianeconomies 17 2.5 CurrentaccountsurplusesofEastAsianeconomies 21 2.6 EastAsia’stradeandGDPgrowth,2000–12 24 2.7 EastAsia’sforeigndirectinvestmentflows,2000–12 28 2.8 ScopeofconcludedFTAsinEastAsiatotal,2000–12 31 2.9 StructureoftheChiangMaiInitiative 36 2.10 DevelopmentanddeepeningofAsiancorporatebondmarkets,2011 42 2.11 Shareofintraregionalportfolioinvestmentindebt 43 3.1 Theprogressiverecession 59 3.2 Insulationfromthecurrentaccount 60 3.3 AssetexposuretotheUnitedStates 64 3.4 AssetexposuretoJapan 65 3.5 AssetexposuretotheRepublicofKorea 65 3.6 AssetexposuretothePeople’sRepublicofChina 66 3.7 BankexposuretotheUnitedStates 67 3.8 BankexposuretoJapan 67 4.1 Exchangeratevolatilitybeforeandduringthecrisis 84 4.2 Changeinexchangeratevolatilityandtheexchangerateregime 84 4.3 TheAMUexchangerate,2000–14 89 4.4 Regionalrealexchangeratedispersion 90 4.5 Changeintradebetween2007and2009 91 5.1 Exchangeratetrends 114 5.2 Eurotradeeffects 124 6.1 ThefluctuationsofASEAN+2currenciesagainsttheUSdollar, yen,andeuro 140 ListofFigures 6.2 FluctuationofEastAsiancurrenciesagainsttheUSdollar 140 6.3 FluctuationofEastAsiancurrenciesagainsttheeuro 141 7.1 Nominalyenappreciationmatchedbyrelativepricedeflation 162 7.2 Japan’scurrentaccountanditscomposition 166 7.3 Realeffectiveexchangeratesoftheyen,BISdata,andforautomobiles 169 7.4 Productionofnon-tradablegoodsrelativetotradablegoods, nominalandreal 170 7.5 Japan’sMOFinterventionintheforeignexchangemarket 171 7.6 Nominalexchangeratesoftheyenagainstthewonandothercurrencies 174 7.7 CorrelationofGDPgrowthratesbetweenJapanandmajoreconomies 180 8.1 TrendofforeignexchangereservesintheRepublicofKorea 200 8.2 Sovereignspreads:foreigncurrencydenominatedsovereignbond spreads(vs.USTreasurynote) 202 8.3 CDSpremiumontheRepublicofKoreagovernmentbond 202 8.4 StockpricemovementsinEastAsia 203 8.5 ExchangeratesagainsttheUSdollarofEastAsianeconomies 204 8.6 ChangesinstockpriceandexchangeratesintheRepublicofKorea 204 8.7 Fluctuationsofthewon/dollarexchangeratesincethebreakout oftheglobalfinancialcrisis 207 8.8 FrequencyoftheRepublicofKorea’sinterventionsinthewon/dollar foreignexchangemarket 209 8.9 Won/dollarexchangerateflexibilityindex 210 8.10 NominalandrealeffectiveexchangeratesoftheRepublicofKoreawon 210 viii List of Tables 2.1 FiscalpolicyinmajorEastAsiancountries,2009and2010 19 2.2 DestinationofEastAsia’sexportsbystagesofproduction,1995–2012 25 2.3 SourcesanddestinationsofEastAsia’sforeigndirectinvestment flows,2003–12 29 2.4 FinancialcontributionsandvotingpowersundertheChiang MaiInitiativeMultilateralization 38 2.5 IMFclassificationofEastAsianexchangerateregimes,2012 45 3.1 Crisismanifestations 55 3.2 MIMICmodelestimateswithonlycontrolvariables 58 3.3 Addingmultilateralfinanciallinkages,2006 61 3.4 Addingbilateralfinanciallinkages,2006 63 3A Datasample 77 4.1 Changeintradebetween2007and2009 90 4.2 Correlationsofchangesbetween2007and2009ofexportswith variousmeasuresofexchangeratemovements 92 4.3 Currencyswaparrangementsduringthecrisis 93 5.1 RatioofexportsofgoodsandservicestoGDP 111 5.2 Bankcapitaltoassetsratio 112 5.3 Foreignreservesandpotentialshort-termliabilities 113 5.4 TotalASEANtrade,2008–9 114 5.5 ASEANrealGDPgrowth,2006–11 115 5.6 Intra-EastAsiantradeshares 116 6.1 WeightsofcurrencychangesinEastAsiancurrenciesexplained bytheUSdollar,euro,andyen 141 6.2 TradegrowthofEastAsianeconomies,1996–2012 143 7.1 Internationallycoordinatedinterventionfortheyen 172 7.2 Currencydistributionofreportedforeignexchangemarketturnover 175 7.3 Estimatedsharesofcurrencyareasofmajorcurrencies,1970–2007 177 7.4 Rankingofglobalfinancialcenters,March2007–September2013 183
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