Lebanon and the Arab Uprisings: In the Eye of the Hurricane PDF
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Lebanon and the Arab Uprisings The Arabuprisings have put Lebanonunder increased strain. While the revo- lutions in Tunisia and Egypt caused limited reverberations, the war in Syria echoed in the fine-tuned political and confessional balance of Lebanon. Over one million refugees, equal to one-quarter of Lebanon’s population, have movedinfromSyria.Thecountry’seconomyanditsalreadyweakpublic infrastructurehavebeenimpactedheavily.Hizbullah’sengagementinSyriahas posed questions about Lebanon’s disassociation policy. Terrorist attacks by ISIL and the growing risk of radicalization across the confessional spectrum have left the country in a state of unease. However, Lebanon’s political elites havevowed toshield thecountry from regional turbulences. Lebanon recently saw a series of demonstrations because of the inability of the government to manage the garbage crisis, but it has been far from witnessing a large-scale citizenuprisingsimilar tothe2005Cedar Revolution or therevolts nextdoor. ThisbookprovidesacomprehensiveoverviewofthecurrentsituationinLeba- non,andadetailedassessmentofthedifficultieswhichthecountryiscurrently facing. Maximilian Felsch is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Haigazian University, Beirut, Lebanon. Martin Wählisch is an Affiliated Scholar of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, Lebanon. He served as a Political Affairs Officer for the United Nations in the Office of the Special Coordinator for Lebanon Durham Modern Middle East and Islamic World Series Series Editor: Anoushiravan Ehteshami, University of Durham For a full list of titles in this series, please visit www.routledge.com. Social and Gender Islam and Pakistan’s Inequality in Oman Political Culture The powerof religious Farhan Mujahid Chak and political tradition Khalid M. 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Moore Lebanon and the Arab Uprisings In the eye of the hurricane Edited by Maximilian Felsch and Martin Wählisch Add Add Add AddAddAdd Add AddAdd AdAddd Firstpublished2016 byRoutledge 2ParkSquare,MiltonPark,Abingdon,OxonOX144RN andbyRoutledge 711ThirdAvenue,NewYork,NY10017 RoutledgeisanimprintoftheTaylor&FrancisGroup,aninformabusiness ©2016selectionandeditorialmaterial,MaximilianFelschandMartin Wählisch;individualchapters,thecontributors Therightoftheeditorstobeidentifiedastheauthorsoftheeditorial material,andoftheauthorsfortheirindividualchapters,hasbeenasserted inaccordancewithsections77and78oftheCopyright,Designsand PatentsAct1988. Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereprintedorreproducedor utilisedinanyformorbyanyelectronic,mechanical,orothermeans,now knownorhereafterinvented,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orin anyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwriting fromthepublishers. Trademarknotice:Productorcorporatenamesmaybetrademarksor registeredtrademarks,andareusedonlyforidentificationandexplanation withoutintenttoinfringe. BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData Names:Wählisch,Martin,1982–editor.|Felsch,Maximilian,editor. Title:LebanonandtheArabuprisings:intheeyeofthehurricane/ MartinWählischandMaximilianFelsch. Description:NewYork:Routledge,2016.|Series:DurhamModernMiddle EastandIslamicWorldSeries;v.40 Identifiers:LCCN2015047612|ISBN9781138885844(hardback)| ISBN9781315715216(e-book) Subjects:LCSH:Lebanon–Politicsandgovernment–21stcentury.| ArabSpring,2010– Classification:LCCDS87.54.L3762016|DDC956.9204/53–dc23 LCrecordavailableathttp://lccn.loc.gov/2015047612 ISBN:978-1-138-88584-4(hbk) ISBN:978-1-315-71521-6(ebk) TypesetinTimesNewRoman byTaylor&FrancisBooks Contents List of illustrations vii List of contributors viii List of abbreviations xv Introduction Lebanon and the Arab uprisings: in the eye of the hurricane 1 MARTINWÄHLISCHANDMAXIMILIANFELSCH PARTI Stability, unity and confessional balance 19 1 Lebanon’s consociational politics in the post-2011 Middle East: the paradox of resilience 21 TAMIRACEFAKHOURY 2 The role of Hizbullah in the Syrian conflict 32 MAGNUSRANSTORP 3 Jihadism in Lebanon after the Syrian uprising 50 AARONY.ZELIN 4 The rise of Christian nationalism in Lebanon 70 MAXIMILIANFELSCH PARTII Humanitarian, economic and social challenges 87 5 Syrian refugees in Lebanon: coping with unpreceded challenges 89 SAMVANVLIET 6 The blind spot: Palestinian refugees from Syria in Lebanon 104 DANIELMEIER vi Contents 7 The economic cost of the Arab uprising for Lebanon 119 MARCUSMARKTANNER,MAUREENE.WILSONANDSANDRAEL-SAGHIR 8 The fight for oil and gas: regional rivalry, the Arab uprisings and Lebanon’s energy sector 135 ISABELLARUBLE PARTIII Foreign policy, regional ties and international relations 153 9 Lebanese foreign policy and the Arab uprisings 155 HENRIETTAWILKINS 10 Syrian–Lebanese relations: the impossible dissociation between Lebanon and Syria 167 CARSTENWIELAND 11 US–Lebanese relations: long-term schizophrenia 181 JENNIFERSKULTE-OUAISS 12 EU–Lebanese relations: shifting EU policies in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings? 192 JULIANPÄNKE Index 213 List of illustrations Figures 7.1 Lebanon’s real GDP and hypothetical GDP (constant $2005) under 1% and 2% growth scenario, 1970–2012 120 7.2 Lebanon’s Total Factor Productivity 1980–2011 127 7.3 Lebanon’s total factor productivity, capital, labor force, and GDP (1980–2011) 129 7.4 Scenario forecasts for 2012–2020 132 Tables 7.1 Direct cost of the Syrian refugee crisis on the Lebanese economy 123 7.2 Forecast parameters 131 8.1 Governance indicators for Norway and Lebanon in 2012 140 8.2 Natural gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin 143 List of contributors Sandra El-Saghir obtained her Ph.D. in Economics in 2010 from the Uni- versité Panthéon-Assas (Paris 2) with distinction. She was awarded the universityprize for herthesis “PovertyAssessment and ProspectsofDevel- opmentinthecontextofGlobalization–AnApplicationtoLebanon.”After graduating from the American Universityof Beirut (AUB) with an MA in Economics in 2001, she worked for two years as a Senior Economist at USAID’s project on Lebanon’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Between 2001 and 2013shewas a Lecturerof EconomicsatAUB. SinceJuly2013,shehasbeenworkingattheUnitedNationsEconomicand Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) as an Economic Consultant where she is in charge of analyzing the economic impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Her work focuses on the assessment of the macroeconomic, social, and developmental implications, especiallyas they relate to the large inflowof Syrian refugees, and employs CGE modeling and simulations studies. She has also been responsible for preparing concept notes and project documents on strengthening the nationaldevelopmentplanningcapacityofJordan. Tamirace Fakhoury is Assistant Professor in Political Sciences and Inter- national Affairs at Lebanese American University (LAU). She is Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Her core research areas include comparative democratization, migration governance, and the links between transnational immigrant communities and political development. Fakhoury holds a Ph.D. in poli- tical sciences from Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg. Before her appointment at the Lebanese American University, she was research fellow in charge of the socio-political module in CARIM (Consortium for the Applied Research on International Migration) at the Migration Policy Center of the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. In 2010/2011, she held the Jean Monnet Fellowship at EUI for research on the interface between Arab world diasporas and political change. In spring 2011 she was a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Middle Eastern List of contributors ix Studies at UC Berkeley; the following summer she returned as visiting faculty in International and Area Studies at UC Berkeley. Maximilian Felsch is Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the Political Science Department at Haigazian University in Beirut. He graduated in Political Science at the Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany,followedbyaPh.D.programattheGraduateSchoolofPoliticsin Münster, Germany. Awarded two doctoral fellowships by the German Orient-Institut Beirut (OIB) and the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation (FES), he receivedhisPh.D.in2011.Felschisanauthorofvariousbookchaptersand peer-reviewed journal articles on the Middle East and is a member of the International Studies Association (ISA) and the German Middle East Studies Association for Contemporary Research and Documentation (DAVO). His research is focused on International relations and the Middle East, including the foreign policy of Arab states, Arab regionalism, the MiddleEastconflict,andtransnationalIslamistorganisations. Marcus Marktanner is Associate Professor of Economics and International Conflict Management at Kennesaw State University. He receivedhis Ph.D. from the Technical Universityof Ilmenau, Germany. In his doctoral thesis heexaminedthepolitical economyoftheeconomictransformationprocess of former socialist economies. Before joining the faculty of Kennesaw State University in June 2011, he held teaching and research positions in Lebanon, the US, and Germany. His research focuses on comparative eco- nomics, economic development, and conflict economics. He has consulted the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)andtheWorldFoodProgram(WFP)onissuesrelatedtoconflict and food security. He also regularly contributes to the workof the Konrad Adenauer Foundation as an author and speaker on the topic of the Social MarketEconomy. Daniel Meier is Senior Associate Member at St Antony’s College in Oxford, after having served as Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Lebanese Studies, University of Oxford. He is a post-doctoral grant holder from the Swiss National Fund and has been an associated researcher with the French Institute for Near East Studies in Beirut for two years. He was formerly a lecturer at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies and also at the Arabic Department of the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Geneva. He has worked extensively on Palestinian issues in Lebanon and published numerous articles in French and English. His book Mariages et Identité Nationale au Liban (Karthala, 2008) tackles Lebanese-Palestinian relationships from a socio-political perspective. As chief editor of the interdisciplinary Journal AContrario, he co-editedwith Prof. R. Bocco a special issue on “La Palestine et les conflits du Moyen- Orient” (2008). He also published the book Le Liban (Le Cavalier bleu, 2011) and edited a special topic issue in Mediterranean Politics (2013) on
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