INVENTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

331 Pages·013.671 MB·English

by  SCHMOOKLER, JACOB

INVENTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
by
Jacob Schmookler
A Dissertation
in Economic Theory
Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School
of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial
Fulfillment of the Requirements for the
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Approved:
Supervisor
Chairman/pf the
CommittflMg of the
Economies Group
Philadelphia
1951
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Students of the sociology of knowledge have made
abundantly clear how small is the credit due the appar­
ent author of any accretion to the social store of
knowledge. Even without this basic clarity, however,
the casual reader would soon begin to suspect how much
the present study owes to Simon Kuznets, for many of
the numerous empirical analyses presented would have
been impossible without his prior research. But in
addition to these visible benefits, my indebtedness to
Dr. Kuznets is so great that it can be appreciated prob­
ably only by those who also have had the privilege of
carrying on research under his guidance. It was Dr.
Kuznets who first directed my attention to patent sta­
tistics. Throughout the investigation, his penetrating
suggestions and criticisms proved invaluable. For all
this assistance, given without stint, I am profoundly
grateful.
Many others also contributed to the research.
Dr. Anders Orbeck, of the Department of English, Mich­
igan State College, with a kindness that will always
evoke both awe and gratitude in me, spent many, many
hours translating Tisell from the Swedish on my behalf.
My colleagues in the Department of Economics at Michigan
State, particularly Victor E. Smith and Charles C.
Killingsworth, rendered valuable advice at various
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iii
stages of the Investigation. Dr. Smith was helpful in
clarifying many of the theoretical implications of the
analysis, and Dr. Killingsworth, in the construction of
the series on technological workers. In the Department
of Psychology, to Miss Esta Berg I am indebted for call­
ing my attention to Wechsler's work on adult intelligence,
and the possible bearing of his findings upon some as­
pects of my research.
At the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Raymond T.
Bowman in the Department of Economics, and Dr. Dorothy
Thomas of the Department of Sociology, were especially
helpful, the former in forcing the elimination of ambi­
guities, errors, and stylistic monstrosities from the
text, the latter in detecting an error in interpretation
and in suggesting an improvement in method. Dr. Anne
Bezanson suggested many improvements in style. To all
of my readers at the University of Pennsylvania, includ­
ing Drs. J. Parker Bursk, and Irving B. Kravis, as well
as Drs. Kuznets, Bowman, Bezanson and Thomas, I am in­
debted for suggesting a valuable improvement in presen­
tation.
I am also happy to acknowledge the advice and as­
sistance of S. C. Gilfillan, Conrad G. D. Maarschalk,
P. J. Federico, and Joseph Rossman. Alfred B. Stafford
was kind enough to keep me informed of his own work in
patent statistics as it progressed and to lend me a copy
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iv
of it in rough draft as soon as it was available. The
courteous assistance rendered me by the many employees
of the United States Patent Office during the summer of
1949 is also gratefully recorded here.
Mrs. Margaret Zerby edited the completed manu­
script. Mrs. Mary Hudson assisted in the statistical
work. Mr. Robert Horwood reproduced the figures, and
Mr. J. C. Steinhoff typed the final copy. Without their
willing cooperation, the appearance of the final prod­
uct would have been considerably delayed. To them I
express my sincere appreciation.
Thanks, too, are due the administration of Michigan
State College, especially to my immediate superiors, Dr.
Charles C. Killingsworth and Dean Herman J. Wyngarden,
for facilitating my research by providing the services
of a student assistant to perform some of the clerical
tasks associated with teaching, and for arranging my
teaching duties so as to expedite the study. To my stud­
ent assistants, Mrs. Laurice Reid, Miss Sanya Hamedy,
and Mr. Fred Dunnbier, who often relieved me of other
tasks so that this might be forwarded, my deepest thanks.
Finally, to my wife who, throughout the trying
period during which X was engaged in the research,
showed a measure of patience unparalleled, I owe a debt
far beyond telling.
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V
Needless to say, X alone am responsible for the
views expressed and any errors in the text.
Jacob Schmookler
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE
LIST OF TEXT TABLES............................. vii
LIST OF TEXT FIGURES........................... ix
LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES......................... xiii
CHAPTER
I. Introduction ........................... 1
II. Inventive Activity and Its
Components ........................... 6
III. The Measurement of Inventive
Activity.............. 16
IV. Patent and Patent Application
Statistics and the Number of
Technological Workers . . . . . . . . . 44
V. The Efficiency of the American
Economy, 1869-1938 101
VI. Alternative Explanations of
Changing Efficiency ................... 160
VII. Inventive Activity and Changing
Efficiency........................... 182
APPENDIX A ...................................... 233
APPENDIX B ...................................... 267
APPENDIX C ...................................... 298
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................... 299
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LIST OF TEXT TABLES
TABLE PAGE
1. Patents Withheld for Non-Payment of
Final Fees as Percentage of Patents
Issued, 1936-1942 . 22
2. Patents Withheld for Non-Payment of
Final Fees as Percentage of Patents
Issued, 1876-1930 .......................... 28
3» Inventors Within Various Occupations
as Percent of Total Inventors,
Sweden, 1885 and 1904..................... 48
4. Number of Domestic Patent Applications
per One Thousand Technological Workers,
United States, 1870 to 1940.............. 6l
5. Percentage Change by Decades in Number
of Technological Workers and Quin­
quennial Average Number of Domestic
Patent Applications, U. S., 1870-1940 . . 63
6. Probable Inventors and Domestic Patent
Applications, United States* 1870-1940 . 63
7« Patents and Designs Issued to Residents
of Foreign Countries by the United
States, 1845-1940 ....................... 98
8. Estimated Annual Average Domestic Appli­
cations for Patents on Inventions,
United States, 1844-1938 99
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vili
TABLE PAGE
9- Rates of Change and Retardation In Gross
National Product and Total Inputs, Based
on Second Degree Potential Curves Pitted
to Logs of Decade Averages, 1869-1938 . . 139
.
10 Two Estimates of Output per Unit of Input,
1929 Prices............................. 144
.
11 Output per Unit of Input, Estimate B, and
Preliminary Estimates for Commodity-
Producing Industries, 1869-1928 ........ 154
.
12 Rates of Change and Retardation in Do­
mestic Patent Applications and Total
Costs, 1869-1938, Based on Second Degree
Potential Curves Pitted to Logs of
Decade Averages ......................... 206
13- Estimated Potential Savings in Total Costs
Due to Reduction in Input per Unit of
Output, 1869-1933, Overlapping Decades,
1929 prices............................. 214
14. Quinquennial Rates of Increase in Savings
in Total Cost That Would Have Been
Made if Output of Given Period Had Been
Produced With Efficiency of Later Pe­
riods, and Quinquennial Rates of Increase
in Domestic Patent Applications ........ 223
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LIST OP TEXT FIGURES
FIGURE PAGE
1. Patents and Designs per 1,000 White Males
Aged 21 and Over, 1879-1881, and Per­
cent of Male Workers Aged 16 to 59
Occupied as Farmers and Planters, 1880,
by States, United States .................. 54
2. Domestic Patent Applications and Tech­
nological Workers, United States,
1870-1940................................ 62
3. Probable Inventors and Domestic Patent
Applications, 1870-1940 66
4. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
I899-I9OI, and Probable Inventors per
10.000 Workers, 1900, by States . . . . 70
5. Patents and Designs per 10,000 Workers,
1939-41, and Probable Inventors per
10.000 Workers, 1940, by States . . . . 71
6. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
I899-I9OI, and Group I Probable Inven­
tors per 10,000 Workers, 1900, by
States............................... . . 73
7. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
I899-I9OI, and Group II Probable In­
ventors per 10,000 Workers, 19OO,
by S t a t e s ............................. 74
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X
figure page
8. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
I899-I9OI, and Group III Probable
Inventors per 10,000 Workers, 1900,
by S t a t e s ................................ 75
9. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
1939-41, and Group I Probable Inven­
tors per 10,000 Workers, 1940, by
States.................................... 76
10. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
1939-41, and Group IA Probable In­
ventors per 10,000 Workers, 1920,
by S t a t e s ............................. 77
11. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
1939-41, and Group II Probable In­
ventors per 10,000 Workers, 1940,
by States ..................... 78
12. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
1939-41, and Group III Probable
Inventors per 10,000 Workers, 1940,
by S t a t e s ............................. 79
13. Patents & Designs per 10,000 Workers,
I899-I9OI, and Logarithm of Probable
Inventors per 10,000 Workers, 1900,
by S t a t e s ............................. 82
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