Introduction to Structural Equation Modeling with Amos Dr. Lluís Coromina (University of Girona, Spain) Email: [email protected] nd rd 2 and 3 October 2014 Outline Introduction Basic concepts. Types of variables. Basic composition Intuitive explanation of the basics of SEM o Path analysis. The regression analysis model o Indirect effects. Equations. Degrees of freedom. Specification errors Measurement errors in regression models Full SEM model Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) o Scale Reliability and Validity of a Construct SEM and modeling stages. o Model specification o Model identification o Model estimation o Fit diagnostics and model modification Results and interpretation Model modification 1 Introduction To introduce models that relate variables measured with error. To introduce Structural Equation Models with latent variables (SEM). To learn all stages of fitting these models. To become familiar with the Amos software. To enable participants to critically read articles in which these models are applied. 2 History SEM make it possible to: o Fit linear relationships among a large number of variables. Possibly more than one is dependent. o Validate a questionnaire as a measurement instrument. Quantify measurement error and prevent its biasing effect. o Freely specify, constrain and test each possible relationship using theoretical knowledge, testing hypotheses. In their most recent and advanced versions, SEM enable researchers to: o Analyze non-normal data. o Treat missing values by maximum likelihood. o Treat complex sample data. 3 History of models for the study of causality Analysis of variance (1920-1930): decomposition of the variance of a dependent variable in order to identify the part contributed by an explanatory variable. Control of third variables (experimental design). Macroeconometric models (1940-50): dependence analysis of non-experimental data. All variables must be included in the model. Path analysis (1920-70): analysis of correlations. Otherwise similar to econometric models. Factor analysis (1900-1970): analysis of correlations among multiple indicators of the same variable. Measurement quality evaluation. SEM (1970): Econometric models, path analysis and factor analysis are joined together. Relationships among variables measured with error, on non-experimental data from an interdependence analysis perspective. 4 History of models for the study of causality SEM are nowadays very popular because they make it possible to (5 Cs, see Batista & Coenders 2000): Work with Constructs/factors/latent variables measured through indicators/observed variables/manifest variables, and evaluate measurement quality. Consider the true Complexity of phenomena, thus abandoning uni and bivariate statistics. Conjointly consider measurement and prediction, factor and path analysis, and thus obtain estimates of relationships among variables that are free of measurement error bias. Introduce a Confirmatory perspective in statistical modelling. Prior to estimation, the researcher must specify a model according to theory. Decompose observed Covariances, and not only variances, from an interdependence analysis perspective. 5 Basic Concepts Latent variables (theoretical concepts that cannot be observed directly) = unobserved = unmeasured Observed variables (indicators of the underlying construct which they are presumed to represent)= manifest = measured 6 Basic Concepts Exogenous (Independent) vs Endogenous (dependent) latent variables. F1 ‘causes’ F2 Changes in the values of the exogenous variables are not explaine by the model. Rather, they are considered to be influenced by other factors external to the model (background variabes such as gender, age, etc.). Fluctuations in the endogenous variable is said to be explained by the model because all latent variables that nfluence them are included in the model specification. 7 Statistical Modeling Models explain how the observed and latent variables are related to one another. Diagram Equations Specification: Model based on researcher’s knowledge of the related theory Testing on sample data Goodness of fit between the hypothesized model and sample data. Testing how well the observed data fit the restricted structure. Observed data – Hypothesized model = Residual DATA = MODEL + RESIDUAL 8 Types of variables Observed variables Unobserved latent factors Measurement error associated with an observed variable Ei =reflects on their adequacy in measuring the related unobserved (underlying) factors. Residual error (disturbance) in the prediction of an unobserved factor 9
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