Table Of Content

IMPLEMENTING THE CLIMATE REGIME IMPLEMENTING THE CLIMATE REGIME International Compliance Edited by Olav Schram Stokke, Jon Hovi and Geir Ulfstein London • Sterling, VA First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2005 Copyright © The Fridtjof Nansen Institute, 2005 All rights reserved ISBN: 1-84407-161-8 hardback Typesetting by The Fridtjof Nansen Institute Printed and bound in the UK by Cromwell Press Ltd, Trowbridge Cover design by Danny Gillespie For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan 8–12 Camden High Street London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan is an imprint of James and James (Science Publishers) Ltd and publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Implementing the climate regime : international compliance / edited by Olav Schram Stokke, Jon Hovi, Geir Ulfstein. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-84407-161-8 (hardback) 1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992). Protocols, etc., 1997 Dec. 11. 2. Climatic changes. 3. Climatic changes–Government policy. 4. Greenhouse gas mitigation–International cooperation. I. Stokke, Olav Schram, 1961- II. Hovi, Jon, 1956- III. Ulfstein, Geir, 1951- QC981.8.C5I457 2005 363.738’74526–dc22 2004022850 Printed on elemental chlorine-free paper Contents Preface vii Notes on Contributors ix Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii Introduction and Main Findings 1 Part I: The Kyoto Compliance Regime: Emergence and Design 1 The Negotiation of a Kyoto Compliance System 17 2 The Kyoto Compliance System: Towards Hard Enforcement 39 Part II: Challenges to Effective Operation of the Compliance Regime 3 Flexibility, Compliance and Norm Development in the Climate Regime 65 4 Reporting and Verification of Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases 85 5 Effective Enforcement and Double-edged Deterrents: How the Impacts of Sanctions also Affect Complying Parties 107 Part III: External Enforcement – Parties and Non-parties 6 The Pros and Cons of External Enforcement 129 7 Trade Measures, WTO and Climate Compliance: The Interplay of International Regimes 147 Part IV: Compliance, NGOs and International Governance 8 The Role of Green NGOs in Promoting Climate Compliance 169 9 Major Oil Companies in Climate Policy: Strategies and Compliance 187 10 Enhancing Climate Compliance – What are the Lessons to Learn from Environmental Regimes and the EU? 209 Epilogue: The Future of Kyoto’s Compliance System 233 Index 237 v vi Contents Figures, Tables and Boxes Figures 4.1 The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system from various agents for the year 2000 relative to 1750 88 4.2 Example of decision tree for selecting the method for estimation of CO 2 emissions from stationary combustion 93 4.3 Emission estimates of HFC-134a 97 4.4 Emission estimates of SF 97 6 4.5 Mean estimated net sources (except fossil fuel) and uncertainties for 22 regions across the globe 98 4.6 Model predicted and observed concentrations (deviations from the baseline) of CFC-12 at Mace Head, Ireland 100 4.7 (cid:1)(cid:2)(cid:3)(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:6)(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:2)(cid:8)(cid:10)(cid:10)(cid:11)(cid:12)(cid:7)(cid:13)(cid:6)(cid:7)(cid:8)(cid:14)(cid:15)(cid:14)(cid:16)(cid:7)(cid:6)(cid:13)(cid:17)(cid:4)(cid:7)(cid:12)(cid:6)(cid:15)(cid:18)(cid:19)(cid:1)(cid:20)(cid:18)(cid:6)(cid:12)(cid:3)(cid:4)(cid:18)(cid:10)(cid:8)(cid:15)(cid:4)(cid:12)(cid:21)(cid:6)(cid:15)(cid:18)(cid:22)(cid:1) (dotted lines) confidence intervals under the Kyoto Protocol 102 Tables 2.1 Enforcement branch membership 47 2.2 Enforcement consequences 54 4.1 Changes in the concentrations of some important GHGs 87 4.2 Importance of the various Kyoto gases in terms of radiative forcing since pre-industrial times, and relative importance of current emissions in terms of CO -equivalents 89 2 4.3 GWP100 values from IPCC (1996a) for the GHGs included in the Kyoto Protocol 90 4.4 Assessed uncertainties in emissions of each Kyoto GHG, total emissions and trend (percentage points) 95 5.1 Alternative compositions of the Enforcement Branch 114 5.2 Bilateral imports, 1997 121 5.3 Bilateral exports, 1997 123 7.1 Participatory regime interplay: Four categories of targets of climate- related trade measures 155 8.1 Relationship between NGO type and resources, levels targeted and strategies 172 9.1 Oil industry participants in the UK emissions trading scheme 195 Boxes 2.1 Mandate of the Enforcement Branch 48 Preface Unlike most books on climate politics, this volume has a sharp focus on one particular aspect of the global climate regime – the system set up to improve compliance with commitments under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The design of a compliance system has been controversial ever since the adoption of the 1992 Framework Con- vention on Climate Change. The outcome, laid out in the 2001 Marrakesh Accords, is innovative in international environmental law and its operation will be decisive for the effectiveness of the climate regime. This book has been prepared under a project coordinated jointly by three Norwegian research institutions targeting international climate politics: CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, The Department of Public and International Law at the University of Oslo, and the Fridtjof Nansen Institute. The book also involves prominent scholars from the US. This transnational group of authors met for several workshops in the course of the project to ensure a high level of integration of the book’s various chapters. Prior to the last workshop, the chapter drafts were subject to individual anonymous review by external experts in the various fields covered. We are very grateful to Scott Barrett, Thomas Gehring, Marc Levy, Sebastian Oberthür, Lasse Ringius, Detlef Sprinz and David Victor for generously offering advice on how the drafts could be further advanced. In late 2003, the chapters were assembled into a coherent manuscript and submitted to James & James/Earthscan. We are highly appreciative of Earthscan’s commissioning editor, Rob West, for his amiable efficiency in guiding the journey from manuscript to book. Thanks are due to the publisher’s anonymous reviewers who provided insightful and constructive suggestions on individual chapters as well as the book structure. We would also like to thank M. J. Mace for her excellent editorial services, with respect to both contents and presentation. We are indebted to Maryanne Rygg for valuable editorial and practical assistance throughout the prepar- ation of this book and to Rowan Davies and Lynn P Nygaard for editiorial services. The project has been funded by the Samstemt Programme under the Research Council of Norway and by the participating institutions. Oslo, June 2004 Olav Schram Stokke, Jon Hovi and Geir Ulfstein vii Notes on Contributors Steinar Andresen is a professor at the Department of Political Science at the Univer- sity of Oslo and a senior research fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. His research focuses on international management of natural resources and the environment with an emphasis on whaling, marine pollution, climate change and the role of the UN in global environmental governance. Analytically, Andresen has examined factors that influence the effectiveness of international cooperation, such as the inter- action between science and policy, processes of leadership and specific institutional features. Andresen has published books, mostly with co-authors, for the Scandi- navian University Press, Belhaven, Manchester University Press and MIT, and a number of articles in such journals as Marine Policy, International Environmental Agreements, Global Environmental Politics and Global Governance. Terje Berntsen holds a Dr Scient degree from the University of Oslo and is a senior research fellow at CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo. He also holds a part-time position at the Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo. His research interest is modelling of atmospheric distribution, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, air pollutants and aerosols. He has published a number of research articles in these fields in international peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Geophysical Research, Tellus, Geophysical Research Letters and Climatic Change. Berntsen has contributed to several of the previous assessment reports from Working Group 1 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and has recently been elected as lead author for Chapter 2 of their fourth assessment report. Jan Fuglestvedt holds a Dr Scient degree from the University of Oslo and is research director at CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo. His research interests include the role of atmospheric chemistry in the context of climate change, calculations of contributions to climate change, strategies for reducing man-made impacts on climate and application of global warming potentials (GWPs) and alternatives in climate policy. He has published a number of research articles in these fields in international peer-reviewed journals including Tellus, Geophysical Research Letters, Ambio and Climatic Change. Dr Fuglestvedt has also contributed to the assessment reports from Working Group 1 of the IPCC. Lars H. Gulbrandsen is a research fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. His research interests are in the area of environmental politics, with a particular focus on international–domestic and public–private governance interactions. He has pub- ix x Notes on Contributors lished articles in Environmental Politics and Global Environmental Politics and book chapters in edited volumes. Cathrine Hagem is a post-doctorate student at the University of Oslo, Department of Economics. Her research interest is environmental economics, with special emphasis on the design of international climate agreements and domestic climate policy. Her research in this field includes theoretical studies of the impact of asymmetric infor- mation, market power and limited participation on the performance of climate agreements. She has also conducted theoretical and empirical work on the interplay between fossil fuel markets and markets for emission permits. Some of this work focuses on the links between strategic actions in the energy market and permit market. Her work has been published in such international journals as The Energy Journal, Energy and Resource Economics, Environmental and Resource Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Jon Hovi is professor of political science, University of Oslo, and a senior researcher at CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo. His main research interest is the design and enforcement of international regimes. He is the author of Games, Threats and Treaties: Understanding Commitments in Interna- tional Relations (Pinter, 1998). Ronald B. Mitchell is an associate professor with tenure in the Department of Politi- cal Science, University of Oregon. He earned his PhD in public policy at Harvard University in 1992 and was a visiting associate professor at the Center for Environ- mental Science and Policy from June 1999 to December 2001. His publications include the award-winning book Intentional Oil Pollution at Sea: Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance (MIT Press, 1994), articles in International Organiza- tion, International Studies Quarterly and Global Governance, and chapters in numerous edited volumes. His research focuses on the effectiveness of international institutions in influencing the behaviour of state and non-state actors, as well as on the influence of environmental science on international policy-making. He has been a member of the United States National Research Council’s Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change and is currently a member of the editorial boards of International Organization, the Journal of Environment and Development and Global Environmental Politics. He teaches courses on international relations theory, international environmental politics and international regimes. Jon Birger Skjærseth is a senior research fellow and research director at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. His research interests are international environmental cooperation, national environmental policy and the strategies of non-state actors, par- ticularly multinational companies. He has published extensively in these fields, including the books North Sea Cooperation: Linking International and Domestic Pollution Control (Manchester University Press, 2000), Regime Effectiveness: Con- fronting Theory with Evidence (MIT Press, 2001, with E. L. Miles, A. Underdal, S. Andresen, J. Wettestad and E. M. Carlin), Climate Change and the Oil Industry: Common Problem, Varying Strategies (Manchester University Press, 2003, with T. Skodvin) and International Regimes and Norway’s Environmental Policy: Crossfire and Coherence (editor, Ashgate, 2004). He has also published extensively in interna- Notes on Contributors xi tional journals such as Cooperation and Conflict, Environmental Politics, Global Environmental Politics, the Journal of Common Market Studies and Marine Policy. Olav Schram Stokke is a senior research fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. His research interest is international political economy, with special emphasis on regime theory, regional cooperation and international management of resources and the environment. He has published extensively in these fields, including the edited volumes Governing High Sea Fisheries: The Interplay of Global and Regional Regimes (Oxford University Press, 2001), Governing the Antarctic: The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System (Cambridge University Press, 1996, with D. Vidas) and The Barents Region: Cooperation in Arctic Europe (SAGE, 1994, with O. Tunander). Stokke is co-editor of the Yearbook of Interna- tional Co-operation on Environment and Development (Earthscan), and his work has been published in such international journals as Marine Policy, Ocean Development and International Law, Ocean and Coastal Management and the Annals of the Amer- ican Academy for Political and Social Science. He is a member of the editorial board of Global Environmental Politics. Frode Stordal is a professor in meteorology at the University of Oslo, Norway. He also holds an adjunct position at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norway. He has a Dr Scient degree from the University of Oslo. His research interest is modelling and observing greenhouse gases, air pollutants and aerosols. He has published a number of research articles in these fields in international peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Geophysical Research, Tellus, Geophysical Research Letters and Nature. Stordal has contributed to several of the previous assessment reports from Working Group 1 of the IPCC. He has participated in more than 20 projects financed by the European Union (EU), and is currently coordinating two EU projects. Geir Ulfstein is professor of law and director of the Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo. He has been deputy director at the Department of Public and International Law, University of Oslo. He has written extensively on the law of the sea, international environmental law and the law on the use of force. He is co- editor-in-chief of the Yearbook of International Environmental Law (Oxford Univer- sity Press). Jacob Werksman is senior adviser to the Global Inclusion Program of the Rockefel- ler Foundation, where he supports grant-making decisions in the area of international intellectual property rights policy and international trade policy. Prior to this, he served as environmental institutions and governance adviser to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). He joined UNDP after nearly ten years at the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development (FIELD) where he served as a lawyer, programme director and, most recently, managing director. He is currently an adjunct professor of law at New York University, and was a lecturer in international economic law at the masters level at the University of London. He has held visiting academic posts at the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies, the University of Edinburgh, the University of Kent and at the University of Connecticut Law School. Before joining FIELD in 1992, Mr