Image 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change

324 Pages·1994·24.76 MB·English

by  J. Alcamo

IMAGE 2.0
IMAGE2.0:
INTEGRATED MODELING OF GLOBAL
CLIMAT E CHANGE
Edited by
JOSEPH ALCAMO
with papers by
The lMAGE Project
National Institute of Public Health
and Environmental Protection (RIVM), the Netherlands
Dutch National Research Programme
on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NOP)
Reprinted from Water, Air, and Soil Pollution,
Volume 76, Nos. 1-2, 1994
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
ISBN 978-94-010-4525-4 ISBN 978-94-011-1200-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-1200-0
Front Cover: Simulation of land cover by IMAGE 2 model for Conventional Wisdom scenario,
year 2025. See Alcamo et al., (part 2), and Zuidema et al., this volume.
Front Cover Design: Martin Middelburg
Book Design and Layout: Martin Middelburg
Printed on acid-free paper
AlI Rights Reserved
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1994
Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 1994
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utiIized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, ·recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword vii
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xi
J. ALCAMO, G.J.J. KREILEMAN, M.S. KROL and G. ZUIDEMA I Modeling the Global Society-
Biosphere-Climate System: Part 1: Model Description and Testing
J. ALCAMO, G.J. VAN DEN BORN, A.F. BOUWMAN, B.J. DE HAAN, K. KLEIN GOLDEWIJK,
O. KLEPPER, J. KRABEC, R. LEE MANS, J.G. J. OLIVIER, A.M.C. TOET, H.J.M. DE
VRIES and H.J. VAN DER WOERD I Modeling the Global Society-Biosphere-Climate
System: Part 2: Computed Scenarios 37
H.J.M. DE VRIES, J.G.J. OLIVIER, R.A. VAN DEN WIJNGAART, G.J.J. KREILEMAN and
A.M.C. TOET I Model for Calculating Regional Energy Use, Industrial Production and
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Evaluating Global Climate Scenarios 79
R. LEEMANS and G.J. VAN DEN BORN I Determining the Potential Distribution of Vegetation,
Crops and Agricultural Productivity 133
G. ZUIDEMA, G.J. VAN DEN BORN, J. ALCAMO and G.J.J. KREILEMAN I Simulating
Changes in Global Land Cover as Affected by Economic and Climatic Factors 163
K. KLEIN GOLDEWIJK, J.G. VAN MINNEN, G.J.J. KREILEMAN, M. VLOEDBELD and R.
LEEMANS I Simulating the Carbon Flux between the Terrestrial Environment and the
Atmosphere 199
G.J.J. KREILEMAN and A.F. BOUWMAN I Computing Land Use Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases 231
M.S. KROL and H.J. VAN DER WOERD I Atmospheric Composition Calculations for
Evaluation of Climate Scenarios 259
B.J. DE HAAN, M. JONAS, O. KLEPPER, J. KRABEC, M.S. KROL and K. OLENDRZVr\iSKII
An Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change 283
Author Index 319
Subject Index 321
FOREWORD
During the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992 much
attention was given to global environmental problems. The Framework Convention on
Climate Change and other international agreements, such as the Montreal Protocol for the
protection of the ozone layer, are ample demonstration that governments take the issues of
global change seriously.
Many of the international political agreements could not have been developed had it not
been for the underpinning provided by scientific reserch and assessment. There are three
major programmes established to reduce the scientific uncertainties related to global
environmental change: the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP since 1980), the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Progrqamme: A Study of Global Change (IGBP, since
1986) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (HDP, since 1990).
Results from these and other scientific programmes can be made more useful for the policy
process if they are evaluated and synthesized. At the international level, this is carried out by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for issues about climate change. It is
hoped that the HDP/IGBP/WCRP initiative System for Analysis, Research and Training
(START) can perform a similar function at the regional level for global change issues ..
Simulation models are crucial as a means to formalize the synthesis of data from different
disciplines. Models can also have predictive capabilities and be used to develop and analyze
scenarios of global environmental change. Only few laboratories in the world have taken the
bold step to attempt the integration of sub-models of the climate system, the global
biogeochemical cycles and the human/societal components. This volume reports on such a
major undertaking and is an important step towards an integrated approach to global change
science.
Models attempting to link the physical, biogeochemical and societal subsystems at the
global scale are, by necessity, simplifications. Their major role is to show the interdependence
of the three subsystems, provide a formal structure for synthesis, and identify major
weaknesses in our understanding. Any attempt to do so is brave, as scientists have a tendency
to analyze and criticize the model subcomponent they are most familiar with while losing the
overall objective of the integrated model development. The IMAGE 2 model is important in
demonstrating our current ability to model the complex global system. It will stimulate further
refinement and development within RIVM and will also lead to the development of similar
models in other laboratories and institutions. The authors should be congratulated for making
available a model description that will stimulate an essential debate and further model
development. This will lead to improved scientific assessments on which policy decisions
must be based.
Professor Thomas Rosswall
Executive Director, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)
PREFACE
The main purpose of this publication is to document the development and testing of the
IMAGE 2.0 model, together with a selection of its applications. One of the main objectives
of IMAGE 2.0 is to link science with policy, but in this publication we emphasize the
scientific rather than policy aspects of the model, because a strong scientific foundation is
necessary before a model can be useful for policy analysis.
IMAGE 2.0 is a type of earth systems model, a new category of simulation tool made
possible by two recent developments. The first is rapid progress in understanding the
workings of the global system based on new data that is rapidly becoming available. These
data have come from comprehensive measurement programs such as TOMS (Total Ozone
Mapping Spectrometer), ALE/GAGE (Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global
Atmospheric Gases Experiment), and ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment), as well
as impressive efforts to compile global data bases through IGAC (International Global
Atmospheric Chemistry Programme), IGBP-DIS (International Geosphere Biosphere
Programme -Data and Information System), and other programs. The second development
making earth systems models possible is the increase in power and utility of computer
hardware and software which has allowed more and more institutes and researchers to
handle the simulations of large geographic and dynamic systems.
Apart from being made possible by the above advances, the IMAGE 2.0 modeling
approach evolved from two directions. First, it stems from the earlier, global-average
version of IMAGE (now referred to as "IMAGE I" which was developed at the National
Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection of the Netherlands (RIVM) under
the leadership of Jan Rotmans. Rotmans' determination and skill led to one of the first
integrated models of climate change (Rotmans, 1991; Rotmans et al., 1991), which coupled
calculations of energy, emissions, climatic consequences and sea level rise within a single
framework. Second, IMAGE 2.0 evolved from developments in global change modeling
that took place during the 1980s at the International Institute for Applied Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria. In particular, the BlOME model (Prentice et aI., 1993) and the RAINS
model (Alcamo, et al. 1990) contributed ideas about rule-based simulations, process-based
models applied on a geographic scale, and spatial mapping, which led to the geographically
explicit calculations of IMAGE 2.0. The crucial advantage of geographically-explicit
modeling is that it increases the opportunity to test global models against data from
comprehensive inventories and/or field campaigns. Hence, model development can keep
pace with the state of understanding of global systems as new data become available.
As with other new developments in science, the field of earth systems modeling has
already taken many different directions depending on the type ofq uestions researchers wish
to address. It is likely that these varied efforts will lead to rapid and exciting advances in the
coming years in understanding and simulating the global system.
Joseph Alcamo
Leader, Project on Modeling Global Climate Change, RNM
x PREFACE
References
A\camo, J., R Shaw, and L. Hordijk (eds): 1990, The RAINS Model of Acidification: Science and Strategies in
Europe, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, 402 pp.
Prentice,l.e., W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, RA. Monserud, and A.M. Solomon: 1992, A global biome
model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate, J. Biogeogr., 19: 117 -134.
Rotmans, J.: 199O,IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, Boston, 289 pp.
Rotmans, J., H. de Boois, R Swart: 1990, An integrated model for the assessment of the greenhouse effect,
Climatic Change, 16: 331-356
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The development of the IMAGE 2.0 model has been funded by MAP Project Number
481507 of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment; and NOP
Project Numbers 851037, 851040, 851042, 851044, and 851045 of the Dutch National
Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NOP). The terrestrial
environment research of the IMAGE Project is an Activity of the Core Project "Global
Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems" (GCTE), of the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme (lGBP).
The work presented herein has benefited from the constructive criticism of an
international review panel of the IMAGE Project organized by the NOP in 1993. This
panel consisted of L. Hordijk (Convener), J. Edmonds, J.Goudriaan, J. Grasman, M.
Hulme, T. Johansson, P. Love, B. Metz., A. Rahman, A. Solomon, and A. van Ulden.
The IMAGE Project is especially indebted to F. Langeweg and R. Swart of the
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, the Netherlands for their
continued support of the development and application of IMAGE 2. The production of this
special issue was greatly aided by many reviewers who handled these papers quickly and
on short notice, by the efforts of the Journal of Water, Air and Soil Pollution Special
Issues Editor, J. Wisniewski, and the Senior Editor, B. McConnac, and by the skills of M.
Middelburg who was responsible for its design and layout.
Joseph Alcamo
MODELING THE GLOBAL SOCIETY- BIOSPHERE-CLIMATE SYSTEM:
PART 1: MODEL DESCRIPTION AND TESTING
J. AL'CAMO, G.J.J. KREILEMAN, M.S. KROL, G. ZUIDEMA
National Institute ofP ublic Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM)
P.O. Box I, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Abstract. This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to
simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to
investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic
calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.50 x 0.50 latitude
longitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked
sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry
models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption
and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic
driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a grid
scale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO and other greenhouse gases from the
2
biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked
model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following
observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO and
2
emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of
land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
Keywords: integrated modeling, integrated assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, global change, climate
change, land cover change, C cycle.
1. Introduction
Scientific and policy questions about the global system of society, biosphere and climate
are by nature multi-disciplinary, and have local, regional and global aspects. Nevertheless,
most global change research focuses on either a single aspect or spatial scale of the
system. The objective of the IMAGE 2.0 model described in this paper is to fill in some
multi-disciplinary gaps in global change research by providing a disciplinary and
geographic overview of the society-biosphere-c1imate system. It is our belief that this
approach can provide new scientific information about the relative importance of
linkages/feedbacks in the society-biosphere-climate system, and new policy information
linking human activity with its consequences on the global biosphere and climate. The
purpose of this paper is to summarize the development and testing of the model,
emphasizing its scientific foundation; a companion paper (Alcamo et aI., 1994) presents
some preliminary applications of the model.
Earlier versions of IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) are
described in Rotmans (1990) and Rotmans et al. (1990), and are part of the ESCAPE
framework presented in CEC (1992). The IMAGE 1.0 model proposed a global-average
integrated structure for climate change issues by combining (1) an energy-model for
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© 1994 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
2 J. ALCAMO ET AL.
greenhouse gas emissions, (2) a global C cycle model and (3) highly parameterized
mathematical expressions for global radiative forcing, atmospheric temperature response,
and sea level rise (Rotmans, 1990). The global-average calculations of IMAGE 1.0 were
useful for evaluating policies at both the Dutch national level and international level (e.g.
IPCC, 1990). Following this work, the developers of IMAGE 1.0 contributed to the
ESCAPE framework, which combined parameterized global-average climate calculations
with grid-based impact calculations for Europe (CEC, 1992). As part of the ESCAPE
framework, an innovative approach was taken to estimate emissions from energy (CEC,
1992) and land use (Bouwman et ai., 1992) for world regions. The IMAGE 2.0 model
contains elements of these two submodels together with several other new submodels.
In comparison to previous integrated models, IMAGE 2.0 covers not only the entire
globe, but also performs many calculations on a global grid (0.50 x 0.50 latitude
longitude); this spatial resolution increases model testability against measurements, allows
an improved representation of feedbacks, and provides more detailed information for
climate impact analysis (discussed further in Sec. 1.2). Moreover, the submodels of
IMAGE 2.0 are in general more process-oriented and contain fewer global
parameterizations than previous models, which enhances the scientific credibility of
calculations (NRP, 1993). Of course, these developments also add greatly to the
computational and data handling tasks of the model.
1.1 OBJECTIVES OF THE MODEL
The scientific goals of the IMAGE 2.0 model are:
To provide insight into the relative importance of different linkages in the society
biosphere-climate system;
To investigate the relative strengths of different feedbacks in this system;
• To estimate the most important sources of uncertainty in such a linked system and
To help identify gaps in knowledge about the system in order to help set the agenda for
climate change research.
The policy-related goals of the model are:
To link important scientific and policy aspects of global climate change in a
geographically-explicit manner in order to assist decision making;
• To provide a dynamic and long-term (50 to 100 years) perspective about the
consequences of climate change;
• To provide insight into the cross-linkages in the system and the side effects of various
policy measures;
To investigate the influence of economic trends and technological development on
climate change and its impacts and
• To provide a quantitative basis for analyzing the costs and benefits of various measures
(including preventative and adaptive measures) to address climate change.
These objectives steer the design and development of the model. The accomplishment of