Heft 231 Sergey Oladyshkin Efficient Modeling of Environmental Systems in the Face of Complexity ...

399 Pages·2014·21.12 MB·English

Heft 231 Sergey Oladyshkin
Efficient Modeling of Environmental
Systems in the Face of Complexity
and Uncertainty

Efficient Modeling of Environmental Systems
in the Face of Complexity and Uncertainty

Habilitationsschrift, Fakultät Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften
und Stuttgart Research Centre for Simulation Technology
der Universität Stuttgart

vorgelegt von
Sergey Oladyshkin
aus Nizhniy Novgorod in Russland

Hauptberichter: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Rainer Helmig

Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 28.02.2014

Institut für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung
der Universität Stuttgart
2014

Heft 231 Efficient Modeling of Environmental
Systems in the Face of Complexity
and Uncertainty

von
Dr.-Ing. habil. Sergey Oladyshkin

Eigenverlag des Instituts für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung
der Universität Stuttgart
D93 Efficient Modeling of Environmental Systems in the Face of Complexity
and Uncertainty

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Oladyshkin, Sergey:
Efficient Modeling of Environmental Systems in the Face of Complexity and
Uncertainty, Universität Stuttgart. - Stuttgart: Institut für Wasser- und
Umweltsystemmodellierung, 2014

(Mitteilungen Institut für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung, Universität
Stuttgart: H. 231)
Zugl.: Stuttgart, Univ., Diss., 2014
ISBN 978-3-942036-35-1

NE: Institut für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung <Stuttgart>: Mitteilungen

Gegen Vervielfältigung und Übersetzung bestehen keine Einwände, es wird lediglich
um Quellenangabe gebeten.

Herausgegeben 2014 vom Eigenverlag des Instituts für Wasser- und Umweltsystem-
modellierung

Druck: Document Center S. Kästl, Ostfildern
Acknowledgements
The presented scientific work forms a fundamental part of my academic development. Dur-
ing this period of time I enjoyed fruitful discussions and beneficial collaborations with in-
spiringpeople.
First of all, I would like to express my sincerest and greatest appreciation to Rainer Helmig
for his valuable guidance and enthusiastic encouragement of this research work. Further-
more, I would like to give my very special thanks to Wolfgang Nowak with whom I had
a very close productive and friendly collaboration and from whom I learned a lot. Also, I
would like to acknowledge my former Ph.D. adviser Mikhail Panfilov with whom I had an
interestingcollaborationinthebeginningofmypostdoctoralperiod.
Moreover, I would like to address my special and deep gratitude to all my co-authors with
whom I had the chance to perform very exiting research projects. My grateful thanks go
to Jean-Jacques Royer for his collaboration on streamline modeling in heterogeneous reser-
voirs, to Holger Class for his valuable input into the modeling of carbon dioxide storage
and to Felipe de Barros who awakened my interest in groundwater modeling. My grateful
thanks are also extended to Lena Walter with whom I had a very beneficial cooperation, to
Meisam Ashraf with whom I had a lively knowledge exchange and to Marcel Hlawatsch for
hismotivatingteamworkonthecreationoftheInteractiveDemonstrator.
I would further like to express my appreciation to Melanie Darcis, Bernd Flemisch, Philipp
Leube, Andreas Geiges, Julian Mehne, Jonas Koch and Michael Sinsbeck from the Depart-
ment of Hydromechanics and Modeling of Hydrosystems of the University of Stuttgart and
tomyco-researchersIrinaPanfilova,OlgaBorozdina,EkaterinaEliseevaandEmmanuelFe-
tel from the Nancy School of Geology. In addition, I would like to express my thanks to the
academicstaffoftheDepartmentofHydromechanicsandModelingofHydrosystemsofthe
UniversityofStuttgartthatcreatedaveryproductiveandfriendlyworkingatmosphere.
Additionally, I would like to acknowledge to the GOCAD consortium, the MoMaS research
group,theSchlumbergerCompanyandtheGermanResearchFoundationwithintheCluster
of Excellence in Simulation Technology at the University of Stuttgart for their support of
thisresearch.
Finally, I wish to thank my wife Anastasia for her support and encouragement throughout
myacademiccareer.
Stuttgart,February2014 SergeyOladyshkin

Contents
List of Figures V
List of Tables XIII
Abbriviations XV
Notation XVII
Zusammenfassung XXIII
I. Introduction 1
1. The challenge of modeling environmental systems 3
2. Complexity of environmental systems and models 6
2.1. Onpossiblesourcesofmodelingerrors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2. Thermodynamicpropertiesofmultiphasecompositionalflow . . . . . . . . 8
2.3. Efficientmodelingofmultiphaseflowusingstreamlinetechnique . . . . . . 10
2.4. Transportinporousmediaaroundsubsurfaceradioactivewastestoragesites 12
3. Uncertainty in environmental modeling 14
3.1. Uncertaintyquantificationviathepolynomialchaosexpansion . . . . . . . 15
3.2. Assessingtheimpactofmodelparametersviaglobalsensitivityanalysis . . 17
3.3. ModelcalibrationviaBayesianupdating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4. Feasibility of applied environmental tasks 23
4.1. Robustdesignofanenvironmentalprojectunderuncertainty . . . . . . . . 23
4.2. Data-drivenuncertaintyquantificationinenvironmentalsystems . . . . . . 25
4.3. Onriskestimationincludingvariouslevelsofuncertainty . . . . . . . . . . 27
II Contents
4.4. Large-scaleglobalsensitivityanalysisingeologicalstorage . . . . . . . . . 28
II. From complexity to feasibility for environmental modeling 31
5. On the impact of modeling error sources: application to CO storage 33
2
5.1. Introductiontomodelingcarbondioxidestorage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
5.2. Physicalproblemformulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
5.3. Impactoferrorsources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
5.4. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
6. Thermodynamic modeling of multicomponent two-phase flow 41
6.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
6.2. Mathematicalmodeloftwo-phaseflowinporousmedia . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.3. Flowmodelpropertiesforanopencontrasttwo-phasesystem . . . . . . . . 46
6.4. Openthermodynamicmodel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
6.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
7. Effective streamline-based modeling of compositional flow 61
7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
7.2. Compositionalflowmodel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
7.3. Compositionalflowproblemsolvedalongstreamlines . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
7.4. Streamlinesimulationofacompositionalflow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
7.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
8. Hydrogen penetration in water through porous medium 83
8.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
8.2. Hydrogen-watercompositionalmodeloftwo-phaseflowinaporousmedium 84
8.3. Hydrogen-waterthermodynamicbehavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
8.4. Hydrogen-waterhydrodynamicbehavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
8.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
III. Efficient model reduction methodology for uncertainty