INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES The aim of the Handbooks in Economics series is to produce Handbooks for various branches of economics, each of which is a definitive source, reference, and teaching supplement for use by professional researchers and advanced graduate students. Each Handbook provides self-contained surveys of the current state of a branch of economics in the formo f chapters prepared by leading specialists on various aspects of this branch of economics. These surveys summarize not only received results but also newer devel- opments, from recent journal articles and discussion papers. Some original material is also included, but the main goal is to provide comprehensive and accessible surveys. The Handbooks are intended to provide not only useful reference volumes for profes- sional collections but also possible supplementary readings for advanced courses for graduate students in economics. KENNETH J. ARROW and MICHAEL D. INTRILIGATOR PUBLISHER' S NOTE For a complete overview of the Handbooks in Economics Series, please refer to the listing at the end of this volume. CONTENTS OF THE HANDBOOK VOLUME 1A PART - 1 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION retpahC 1 Production and Supply YAIR MUNDLAK retpahC 2 Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and Risk Management for AgriculturalP roducers GIANCARLO MOSCHINI and DAVID A. HENNESSY retpahC 3 Expectations, Information and Dynamics MARC NERLOVE and DAVID A. BESSLER retpahC 4 The Agricultural Innovation Process: Research and Technology Adoption in a Changing Agricultural Sector DAVID SUNDING and DAVID ZILBERMAN retpahC 5 Structural Change in Agricultural Production: Economics, Technology and Policy JEAN-PAUL CHAVAS retpahC 6 Land Institutions and Land Markets KLAUS DEININGER and GERSHON FEDER retpahC 7 Human Capital: Education and Agriculture WALLACE E. HUFFMAN retpahC 8 Women's Roles in the Agricultural Household: Bargaining and Human Capital Investments T. PAUL SCHULTZ retpahC 9 Human Capital: Migration and Rural Population Change J. EDWARD TAYLOR and PHILIP L. MARTIN retpahC 01 Agricultural Finance: Credit, Credit Constraints, and Consequences PETER J. BARRY and LINDON J. ROBISON vii viii Contents of the Handbook Chapter 11 Economic Impacts of Agricultural Research and Extension ROBERT E. EVENSON Chapter 12 The Agricultural Producer: Theory and Statistical Measurement RICHARD E. JUST and RULON D. POPE VOLUME 1B PART 2 - MARKETING, DISTRIBUTION AND CONSUMERS Chapter 13 Commodity Futures and Options JEFFREY C. WILLIAMS Chapter 14 Storage and Price Stabilization BRIAN WRIGHT Chapter 15 Food Processing and Distribution: An Industrial Organization Approach RICHARD J. SEXTON and NATHALIE LAVOIE Chapter 16 Marketing Margins: Empirical Analysis MICHAEL K. WOHLGENANT Chapter 17 Spatial Price Analysis PAUL L. FACKLER and BARRY K. GOODWIN Chapter 18 Duality fort he Household: Theory and Applications JEFFREY T. LaFRANCE Chapter 19 Economic Analysis of Food Safety JOHN M. ANTLE Chapter 20 Marketing and Distribution: Theory and Statistical Measurement JAMES VERCAMMEN and ANDREW SCHMITZ Chapter 21 Production and Marketing RACHAEL E. GOODHUE and GORDON C. RAUSSER Contents of the Handbook ix VOLUME 2A PART 3 - AGRICULTURE, NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT Chapter 22 The Economics of Agriculture in Developing Countries: The Role of thEen vironment RAMON LOPEZ Chapter 23 Agriculture and the Environment ERIK LICHTENBERG Chapter 24 Common-Pool Resourceasn d Institutions: Toward a Revised Theory ELINOR OSTROM Chapter 25 Agriculture and Ecosystem Services GEOFFREY M. HEAL and ARTHUR A. SMALL PART 4 - AGRICULTURE IN THE MACROECONOMY Chapter 26 Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural and Resource Policies THOMAS W. HERTEL Chapter 27 Agriculture antdh e Macroeconomy, with Emphasis on Developing Countries MAURICE SCHIFF and ALBERTO S~IDLAV Chapter 28 The Macroeconomics of Agriculture PIER GIORGIO ARDENI and JOHN FREEBAIRN Chapter 29 Agriculture anEdc onomic Development C. PETER TIMMER Chapter 30 The Rural Sector in Transition Economies KAREN BROOKS and JOHN NASH Chapter 31 Rural Development and Rural Policy ALAIN DE JANVRY, ELISABETH SADOULET and RINKU MURGAI Chapter 32 Agriculture in the Macroeconomy: Theorayn d Measurement PHILIP ABBOTT and ALEX McCALLA x Contents of the Handbook VOLUME 2B PART 5 - AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD POLICY Chapter 33 The Incidence of Agricultural Policy JULIAN M. ALSTON and JENNIFER S. JAMES Chapter 34 Information, Incentives, and the Design of Agricultural Policies ROBERT G. CHAMBERS Chapter 35 Market Failures and Second-Best Analysis with a Focus on Nutrition, Credit, and Incomplete Markets ROBERT INNES Chapter 36 Political Economy of Agricultural Policy HARRY DE GORTER and JOHAN SWINNEN Chapter 37 A Synthesis of Agricultural Trade Economics LARRY S. KARP and JEFFREY M. PERLOFF Chapter 38 International Trade Policy and Negotiations DANIEL A. SUMNER and STEFAN TANGERMANN Chapter 39 Public Policy: Its Many Analytical Dimensions GORDON C. RAUSSER and RACHAEL E. GOODHUE Chapter 40 Food Security and Food Assistance Programs CHRISTOPHER B. BARRETT Chapter 41 Food Security and the World Food Situation R.C. DUNCAN Chapter 42 Policy-Related Developments in Agricultural Economics: Synthesis of Handbook Volume 2 BRUCE L. GARDNER and D. GALE JOHNSON INTRODUCTION The subject matter of agricultural economics has both broadened and deepened in re- cent years, and the chapters of this Handbook present the most exciting and innovative work being done today. The field originated early in the twentieth century with a focus on farm management and commodity markets, but has since moved far into analysis of issues in food, resources, international trade, and linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy. In the process agricultural economists have been pioneering users of developments in economic theory and econometrics. Moreover, in the process of intense focus on problems of economic science that are central to agriculture - mar- ket expectations, behavior under uncertainty, multimarket relationships for both prod- ucts and factors, the economics of research and technology adoption, and public goods and property issues associated with issues like nonpoint pollution and innovations in biotechnology - agricultural economists have developed methods of empirical investi- gation that haveb een taken up in other fields. The chapters are organized into five parts, contained in two volumes. Volume 1 con- tains Part ,1 "Agricultural Production", and Part 2, "Marketing, Distribution and Con- sumers". These two parts include much of the traditional scope of agricultural eco- nomics, emphasizing advances in both theory and empirical application of recent years. Volume 2 consists of three parts: "Agriculture, Natural Resources and the Environment", "Agriculture in the Macroeconomy", and "Agricultural and Food Policy". Although agricultural economists have always paid attention to these topics, research devoted to them has increased substantially in scope as well as depth in recent years. A large-scale effort to review and assess the state of knowledge in agricultural eco- nomics was previously undertaken by the American Agricultural Economics Associ- ation (AAEA), with publication in four volumes from 1977 to 1992.1 Those earlier survey volumes have strikingly different subject-matter content from that of the present Handbook, especially considering that they described the same field only 20 years ago. The AAEA volumes have extensive coverage off arm management issues, costs of pro- duction in agriculture, and estimates of efficiency of marketing firms. In our judgment little in any fundamental way has been added to our knowledge in these areas, and applications have become routine rather than imaginative research. The largest AAEA volume was devoted entirely to agriculture in economic development. This remains a l A Survey of Economics Literature, ,nitra MeeL ed., :silopaenniM ytisrevinU of atosenniM .sserP -loV emu ,1 lanoitidarT dleiF of larutlucirgA scimonocE ;)7791( emuloV ,2 evitatitnauQ sdohteM ni larutlucirgA scimonocE ;)7791( emuloV ,3 scimonocE of ,eraffeW laruR ,tnempoleveD dna larutaN secruoseR ;)1891( emuloV erutlucirgA ,4 ni cimonocE tnempoleveD .)2991( ix iix Introduction most important topic, but we cover it in only one complete chapter and parts of sev- eral others. This reflects in part the integration of work on developing countries with mainstream applied work. For example, our chapters on production economics, expec- tations, and risk management also encompass applications to agriculture in developing economies. That integration points to another gradual but notable change in agricultural econo- mists' research. The AAEA surveys had most of the chapters of one volume devoted to quantitative methods. We do not have any separate methodological chapters. In con- trast, we have several chapters with substantial development of economic theory. This reflects an evolution in the research priorities of leading agricultural economists who, following the earlier work of Nerlove on supply and Griliches on technological change, are working at the theoretical frontiers and simultaneously undertaking empirical work - not just purveying new theories to their more "applied" colleagues. As its title indicates, the AAEA volumes were surveys of literature, and aimed at completeness of coverage within their subject matter. We asked our authors to be se- lective, to focus on what they saw as the main contributions to the area they covered, and to assess the state of knowledge and what remains to be learned. This approach has left some gaps in our coverage, and has given us some chapters that are perhaps more idiosyncratic than is usual for a survey chapter. In order to pull things together at a higher level of aggregation, we commissioned five "synthesis" chapters, one for each of the five parts of the Handbook. And, to provide our own even broader overview, the editors have written closing syntheses of each volume. Because these syntheses provide capsule summaries of each Handbook chapter, we will not present further description of content here. Although advances in research in agricultural economics are increasinglyb eing made in many countries, our authors and coverage of applied topics is heavily U.S.-weighted (only six authors work outside of the U.S.: two in Europe, two in Australia, one in Canada, and one in Israel). Of those in the U.S., however, six are economists at the World Bank, an international rather than American institution. Probably in another twenty years or so one will have to become more international to capture the most interesting and exciting developments in the field, but that day has not arrived yet. Among the many debts we have accrued in the preparation of this Handbook, the most important was Rachael Goodhue. She not only assessed the substance ofm any chapters, but she persuaded many reviewers and authors alike to complete their assigned respon- sibilities. Other critical contributors include the dedicated staff who provided support at the University of California, Berkeley, and at the University of Maryland. At Maryland, Liesl Koch served as copy editor and guided the authors' final revisions and preparation of the manuscript with sure judgment and a firmb ut diplomatic hand, a job best likened to driving a herd of cats. Coordination of correspondence with authors and reviewers was organized and carried out at Berkeley with exemplary efficiency and organizational skill by Jef Samp, Jessica Berkson, and Jennifer Michael, under the direction of Nancy Lewis. Introduction iiix eW also want to recognize the comments dam suggestions received from 54 review- ers of chapter drafts: Julian Alston, Jock Anderson, Richard Barichello, Eran Beinen- baum, Michael Boehlje, Dan Bromley, Steve Buccola, Allan Buckwell, David Bul- lock, Michael Caputo, Jean-Paul Chavas, John Connor, Klaus Deininger, Jeffrey Doff- man, Marcel Fafchamps, Gershon Feder, Joe Glauber, Dan Gilligan, Rachael Goodhue, Tom Grennes, Zvi Griliches, Geoff Heal, Eithan Hochman, Matt Holt, Wallace Huff- man, .D Gale Johnson, Zvi Lerman, Erik Lichtenberg, Ethan Ligon, Alan Love, Jill McCluskey, Mario Miranda, Arie Oskam, Dick Perrin, Mark Rosegrant, Vern Ruttan, Ed Schuh, Kathleen Segerson, Larry Sjaastad, Spiro Stefanou, Jo Swinnen, Frans van der Zee, Finis Abner Welch, Womack, Jacob and Yaron. BRUCE GARDNER GORDON RAUSSER Chapter 33 THE INCIDENCE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY JULIAN M. ALSTON Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis JENNIFER S. JAMES Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania The State University Contents Abstract 1690 Keywords 1690 .1 Introduction 1691 2. Single-market models of policy incidence in commodity markets 1693 2.1. The basic model 1693 2.2. Efficient redistribution 1695 2.2.1. Redistribution using an output quota 1696 2.2.2. RedisUSbution using a subsidy 1698 2.2.3. Comparing quotas and subsidies 1698 2.3. Multiple instruments 1699 2.4. The marginal social opportunity cost of funds 1700 2.4.1. Implications of 3 > 0 1701 3. Implications of international trade for incidence 1702 3.1. Market power in trade 1703 3.2. Output quotas for traded goods 1704 3.3. Comparing subsidies on output versus exports 1705 3.4. Price discrimination and pooling schemes 1706 4. Multimarket models 1707 4.1. Aggregation of goods and welfare 1708 4.2. Two factors with fixed factor proportions 1711 4.3. Two factors with variable factor proportions 1714 4.3.1. Equations of the model 1715 4.3.2. Output subsidy 1717 4.3.3. Input subsidy 1718 4.3.4. Quotas on output or an input 1719 4.3.5. Combining insmmaents 1720 5. Supply controls - some extensions to the analysis 1721 Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume ,2 Edited by B. Gardner and .G Rausser © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved