Glance at the Silk Road Disaster Risk

189 Pages·2022·8.02 MB·English

by  Peng Cui, Yu Lei

Peng Cui
Yu Lei
Glance
at the Silk
Road Disaster
Risk
Glance at the Silk Road Disaster Risk
·
Peng Cui Yu Lei
Glance at the Silk Road
Disaster Risk
Peng Cui Yu Lei
Institute of Mountain Hazards Institute of Mountain Hazards
and Environment and Environment
Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chengdu, China Chengdu, China
ISBN 978-981-19-5582-2 ISBN 978-981-19-5583-9 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5583-9
Jointly published with Science Press
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Foreword
Climate change is happening faster than we think, and the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events keep increasing. At the same time, poor urban planning and
inequality drive disaster risk to grow much faster than the ability of many countries
to build their disaster resilience. How to effectively reduce disaster risk in the face
of growing hazards and vulnerabilities to safeguard sustainable development is the
challenge of our time.
Historically, the Silk Road has facilitated social, economic, technological, and
cultural exchanges between Asia, Europe, Africa, and other countries. It also happens
to cover many less developed countries which are disproportionally impacted by
disasters. Due to a coalescence of hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure, the Silk
Road region is facing increased disaster risks, affecting the lives and livelihood of
billions.
International cooperation and technological innovation are essential for coun-
tries to jointly address major disaster risks for sustainable development. The Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and the Paris Climate Agree-
ment are two global agreements that provide countries with a roadmap to reduce the
impacts of current and future disasters. As a result, the implementation of these two
agreements is critical to achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Key to their implementation is strengthening international cooperation and scien-
tific research around addressing the drives of disasters. That is why the United Nations
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and International Science Council
(ISC) jointly launched the decade-long program Integrated Research on Disaster
Risk (IRDR). We are glad to see that, at the same time, China has also taken an
active role in promoting safe, green, and sustainable development in the Silk Road
region. Namely, through the international research program, the Silk Road Disaster
Risk Reduction (SiDRR) was established by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and
is also a flagship project of IRDR.
In cooperation with international research institutions and scientists, a team from
the Chinese Academy of Sciences compiled the Atlas of Silk Road Disaster Risk
and Glance at the Silk Road Disaster Risk as part of the larger publication series on
Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction. The publications reflect the latest information,
v
vi Foreword
trends, and finding of the SiDRR’s international disaster risk research and are a solid
contribution to advancing the understanding of the disaster risk of the Silk Road
region.
Moreover, the Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction series is a good example of how
research cooperation through international partnerships can support countries and
stakeholders to progress toward evidence-based and risk-informed decision making.
We hope the countries of the region make use of the analysis presented in this
series to further their understanding of risk. The release of these publications can
also be considered an important contribution to the Midterm Review of the Sendai
Framework in the Silk Road region to highlight ongoing risks. If acted on, the rich
scientific findings from these publications can help reduce disaster risks in the Silk
Road region and protect sustainable development.
Marco Toscano-Rivalta
Chief of the Regional Office for Asia
and the Pacific United Nations Office
for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
Bangkok, Thailand
Preface
The Silk Road plays an important role in connecting Eastern and Western countries
and promoting trade, technology, and cultural exchanges. The Silk Road Initiative has
revitalized the Silk Road and given it a newfound significance. The Silk Road spans a
vast area covering 140 countries and about 63% of the global population. It includes
the most active seismic zone with complex geological and geomorphological areas
with unique meteorological and hydrological conditions with the highest frequency
and intensity of disasters globally. However, most of the countries in the region are
less developed and have a low level of socioeconomic development, high urban and
rural development needs, and rapid infrastructure construction. This has led to high
disaster risks, which have seriously affected the regional socioeconomic development
and the safety of people’s lives and properties.
This book analyzes the geological and geomorphological, climatic and hydro-
logical, and socioeconomic environments of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania in
the face of earthquakes, geological, drought, flood, and marine disasters, among
others. It aims to present the spatial distribution of disasters and their risks, reveal
the development trend of disasters, and analyze the causes and impacts of typical
disaster events and their response measures. This book examines the characteristics
and spatial patterns of different natural hazards in the region and provides a holistic
and comprehensive regionalization of natural disasters. It assesses disaster risks in
terms of the region as a whole, typical zones, towns, and engineering of the main
disaster types and establishes a cross-border collaborative disaster risk management
model to provide scientific support for regional development and disaster prevention
and reduction for the countries in the Silk Road region.
By analyzing disaster risks in the study area, this book attempts to synergize the
role of scientific research and scientists in collaborative disaster risk management and
disaster resilience in all stages of risk management with multiple levels and different
stakeholders in the country, region, and community. This book aims to deepen disaster
risk perceptions, minimize disaster impacts, and serve the regional implementation
of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030,the2 030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development, and other UN disaster reduction goals.
vii
viii Preface
Based on previous research results, such as the “International Research
Program on Hazard and Risk Reduction for the Silk Road Region” (Grant No.
131551KYSB20160002), a key project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences for
foreign cooperation, “Impact of Ecohydrological Process on the Feedback Mech-
anism and Risk Regulation of Mountain Hazards in the Steep Terrain Regions,
Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau” (Grant No. 41790430), a major project of the
National Natural Science Foundation of China, “Formation Mechanism and Evolu-
tion Process of Mountain Hazard Chains under Climate Change” (Grant No. QYZDY-
SSW-DQC006), a key research project of frontier science of Chinese Academy of
Sciences, a Sichuan International Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation
Project (Grant No. 2021YFH0009), and “Natural Disaster Risk Prevention in the
Silk Road Region”, an advisory review program of Academic Divisions of CAS,
this book provides in-depth analyses and research on the background, distribution
pattern, development trend, risk analysis, and risk management model of natural
disasters. The Glance at Silk Road Disaster Risk was written on this basis.
This book was edited by Peng Cui and coordinated by Yu Lei and Wu Shengnan.
Chapter 1 was written by Peng Cui, Irasema Alcántara-Ayala, and John Handmer;
Chap. 2 was written by Qiu Haijun, Chen Xi, Wang Dongxiao, Jiang Changsheng,
Zou Qiang, Bao Anming, Liu Tie, Hu Sheng, Luo Yao, Zhang Zhengtao, and Gopi
Krishna; Chap. 3 was written by Peng Cui, Qiu Haijun, Chen Xi, Wang Dongxiao,
Wang Ming, Jiang Changsheng, Zou Qiang, Bao Anming, Liu Tie, Hu Sheng, Luo
Yao, Zhang Zhengtao, Yu Lei, and Amod Mani Dixit; Chap. 4 was written by
Wu Shengnan, Peng Cui, Yu Lei, Tang Chenxiao, and Zhang Zhengtao; Chap. 5
was written by Yu Lei and Wu Shengnan; and Appendix was compiled by Zhang
Zhengtao, Zou Qiang, and Yu Lei. Peng Cui, Yu Lei, Wu Shengnan, Zou Qiang,
Zhang Zhengtao, and Tang Chenxiao reviewed and revised the whole manuscript,
and Zhou Liqin and Li Jiaying also participated in revising the entire book. After
completing the final draft of the book, experts including Cheng Xiaotao, Ma Zhuguo,
Wang Xiaoqing, Wang Zhonggen, Wang Hui, and Zhang Tianyu carefully reviewed
the manuscript and provided detailed written comments which played a key role in
improving the academic quality of the book.
As part of the publication series on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction, this book
will be published together with the Atlas of Silk Road Disaster Risk and be released
in English for a global audience. As this book is about to be published, we would
like to express our sincere gratitude to all the authors, reviewers, and students who
assisted in the preparation of this book, as well as to the Science Press and Xi’an
Mapping and Printing Co., Ltd. of China National Administration of Coal Geology.
We would also like to express our gratitude to the readers who would provide valuable
comments and suggestions when reading this book.
Chengdu, China Peng Cui
December 2021
Contents
1 Background and Connotations .................................. 1
1.1 The Shared Silk Road ....................................... 2
1.2 Disaster Impact ............................................ 3
1.3 International Agreements on Disaster Risk Reduction ............ 5
1.3.1 The 2015 UN Landmark Agreements ................... 7
1.3.2 On the Linkages Among Global Frameworks ............ 10
1.4 Opportunities and Challenges ................................ 13
References ..................................................... 13
2 Environment ................................................... 15
2.1 Disaster Fostering Environment .............................. 15
2.1.1 Geology and Geomorphology .......................... 16
2.1.2 Climate and Hydrology ............................... 20
2.1.3 Soil and Vegetation ................................... 23
2.1.4 Human Activities .................................... 25
2.2 Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Disasters .................. 29
2.2.1 Earthquake .......................................... 30
2.2.2 Mass Movement ..................................... 36
2.2.3 Drought ............................................ 41
2.2.4 Flood .............................................. 46
2.2.5 Tsunami ............................................ 50
2.3 Integrated Hazard Zonation .................................. 54
2.3.1 Assessment Method .................................. 54
2.3.2 Results ............................................. 54
References ..................................................... 57
3 Disaster Risk Assessment ....................................... 61
3.1 Natural Hazard and Its Risk .................................. 61
3.1.1 Concept of Disaster Risks ............................. 61
3.1.2 Disaster Risk Assessment at Different Scales ............. 63
3.2 Silk Road Disaster Risk Assessment .......................... 63
3.2.1 Integrated Disaster Risk Assessment .................... 64
ix
x Contents
3.2.2 Earthquake Risk Assessment .......................... 67
3.2.3 Mass Movement Risk Assessment ...................... 71
3.2.4 Drought Risk Assessment ............................. 73
3.2.5 Flood Risk Assessment ............................... 76
3.2.6 Maritime Shipping Risk Assessment .................... 79
3.3 Regional Scale Disaster Risk Assessment ...................... 81
3.3.1 Landslide Risk Assessment for the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor ................................... 82
3.3.2 Assessment of Disaster Risks on the Qinghai-Tibet
Plateau ............................................. 85
3.3.3 Assessment of Earthquake Risks of Buildings
on the Iranian Plateau ................................. 89
3.3.4 Regional Drought Risk Assessment ..................... 90
3.4 Assessment of Disaster Risks of Typical Community ............ 92
3.4.1 Assessment of the Risk of a Simultaneous Disaster:
Qingping Township, Sichuan Province, China ............ 92
3.4.2 Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment:
An Assessment of Debris Flow Risk in Houba Village,
Wudu District, Gansu Province, China .................. 94
3.5 Assessment of Disaster Risks to Infrastructure .................. 96
3.5.1 Mass Movement Disaster Risk Assessment
for the Araniko Highway Between China and Nepal ....... 96
3.5.2 Susceptibility Assessment of Mass Movements
of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam on the Indus River ........... 101
References ..................................................... 104
4 Risk Management .............................................. 107
4.1 From Disaster Management Towards Disaster Risk
Management ............................................... 107
4.2 Challenges for Disaster Risk Management in the Silk Road
Area ...................................................... 109
4.2.1 Disaster Risk Management at the Present Stage ........... 110
4.2.2 Challenges in Disaster Risk Management ................ 112
4.3 A Disaster Risk Management Model for the Silk Road Area ...... 114
4.3.1 Basic Principles and Theories .......................... 114
4.3.2 Characteristics and Contents of This Mode .............. 115
4.3.3 Conclusions ......................................... 120
4.4 Cases Study ............................................... 120
4.4.1 Flood Control and Disaster Risk Management
in the Netherlands .................................... 120
4.4.2 Risk Management After the Wenchuan Earthquake ....... 132
References ..................................................... 143
5 Future Prospects ............................................... 147