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GETTING UP TO SPEED THE FUTURE OF SUPERCOMPUTING Susan L. Graham, Marc Snir, and Cynthia A. Patterson, Editors Committee on the Future of Supercomputing Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap- propriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the Department of Energy under Spon- sor Award No. DE-AT01-03NA00106. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09502-6 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-54679-6 (PDF) Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2004118086 Cover designed by Jennifer Bishop. Cover images (clockwise from top right, front to back) 1. Exploding star. Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) Center for Supernova Research, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science. 2. Hurricane Frances, September 5, 2004, taken by GOES-12 satellite, 1 km visible imagery. U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. 3. Large-eddy simulation of a Rayleigh-Taylor instability run on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MCR Linux cluster in July 2003. The relative abun- dance of the heavier elements in our universe is largely determined by fluid insta- bilities and turbulent mixing inside violently exploding stars. 4. Three-dimensional model of the structure of a ras protein. Human Genome Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science. 5. Test launch of Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile. Vandenberg Air Force Base. 6. A sample of liquid deuterium subjected to a supersonic impact, showing the formation of a shock front on the atomic scale. The simulation involved 1,320 atoms and ran for several days on 2,640 processors of Lawrence Livermore Na- tional Laboratory’s ASCI White. It provided an extremely detailed picture of the formation and propagation of a shock front on the atomic scale. Accelerated Stra- tegic Computing Initiative (ASCI), Department of Energy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 7. Isodensity surfaces of a National Ignition Facility ignition capsule bound- ing the shell, shown at 200 picosec (left), 100 picosec (center), and near ignition time (right). An example of ASCI White three-dimensional computer simulations based on predictive physical models. ASCI, Lawrence Livermore National Labo- ratory. Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313 in the Washington metropolitan area; Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating soci- ety of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedi- cated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the Na- tional Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in provid- ing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com- munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF SUPERCOMPUTING SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California, Berkeley, Co-chair MARC SNIR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Co-chair WILLIAM J. DALLY, Stanford University JAMES W. DEMMEL, University of California, Berkeley JACK J. DONGARRA, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory KENNETH S. FLAMM, University of Texas, Austin MARY JANE IRWIN, Pennsylvania State University CHARLES KOELBEL, Rice University BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation ROBERT F. LUCAS, University of Southern California PAUL C. MESSINA, Distinguished senior computer scientist, Consultant JEFFREY M. PERLOFF, University of California, Berkeley WILLIAM H. PRESS, Los Alamos National Laboratory ALBERT J. SEMTNER, Naval Postgraduate School SCOTT STERN, Northwestern University SHANKAR SUBRAMANIAM, University of California, San Diego LAWRENCE C. TARBELL, JR., Technology Futures Office, Eagle Alliance STEVEN J. WALLACH, Chiaro Networks Staff CYNTHIA A. PATTERSON, Study Director PHIL HILLIARD, Research Associate (through May 2004) MARGARET MARSH HUYNH, Senior Program Assistant HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist iv COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD DAVID LIDDLE, U.S. Venture Partners, Co-chair JEANNETTE M. WING, Carnegie Mellon University, Co-chair ERIC BENHAMOU, Benhamou Global Ventures, LLC DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, CSTB Chair Emeritus WILLIAM DALLY, Stanford University MARK E. DEAN, IBM Almaden Research Center DEBORAH ESTRIN, University of California, Los Angeles JOAN FEIGENBAUM, Yale University HECTOR GARCIA-MOLINA, Stanford University KEVIN KAHN, Intel Corporation JAMES KAJIYA, Microsoft Corporation MICHAEL KATZ, University of California, Berkeley RANDY H. KATZ, University of California, Berkeley WENDY A. KELLOGG, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center SARA KIESLER, Carnegie Mellon University BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation, CSTB Member Emeritus TERESA H. MENG, Stanford University TOM M. MITCHELL, Carnegie Mellon University DANIEL PIKE, GCI Cable and Entertainment ERIC SCHMIDT, Google Inc. FRED B. SCHNEIDER, Cornell University WILLIAM STEAD, Vanderbilt University ANDREW J. VITERBI, Viterbi Group, LLC CHARLES N. BROWNSTEIN, Director KRISTEN BATCH, Research Associate JENNIFER M. BISHOP, Program Associate JANET BRISCOE, Manager, Program Operations JON EISENBERG, Senior Program Officer RENEE HAWKINS, Financial Associate MARGARET MARSH HUYNH, Senior Program Assistant HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Senior Program Officer JANICE SABUDA, Senior Program Assistant GLORIA WESTBROOK, Senior Program Assistant BRANDYE WILLIAMS, Staff Assistant For more information on CSTB, see its Web site at <http://www.cstb.org>, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e-mail the CSTB at Preface igh-performance computing is important in solving complex problems in areas from climate and biology to national security. HSeveral factors have led to the recent reexamination of the ratio- nale for federal investment in research and development in support of high-performance computing, including (1) continuing changes in the various component technologies and their markets, (2) the evolution of the computing market, particularly the high-end supercomputing seg- ment, (3) experience with several systems using the clustered processor architecture, and (4) the evolution of the problems, many of them mis- sion-driven, for which supercomputers are used. The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Science expressed an interest in sponsoring a study by the Computer Science and Telecommu- nications Board (CSTB) of the National Research Council (NRC) that would assess the state of U.S. supercomputing capabilities and relevant research and development. Spurred by the development of the Japanese vector-based Earth Simulator supercomputer, the Senate’s Energy and Water Development Appropriations Committee directed the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program of the National Nuclear Secu- rity Administration (NNSA) at DOE to commission, in collaboration with DOE’s Office of Science, a study by the NRC. Congress also commis- sioned a study by the JASONs1 to identify the distinct requirements of the stockpile stewardship program and its relation to the ASC acquisition strategy. 1Formed in 1959, the JASONs are a select group of scientific advisors who consult with the federal government, chiefly on classified research issues. vii viii PREFACE CSTB convened the Committee on the Future of Supercomputing to assess prospects for supercomputing technology research and develop- ment in support of U.S. needs, to examine key elements of context—the history of supercomputing, the erosion of research investment, the chang- ing nature of the problems demanding supercomputing, and the needs of government agencies for supercomputing capabilities—and to assess op- portunities for progress. The 18 distinguished members of the study com- mittee (see Appendix A for their biographies) were drawn from academia, industry, and government research organizations in the United States. Several committee members have had previous government and/or in- dustry service. Their collective expertise includes software, computer ar- chitecture, performance assessment, applications using supercomputing, economics, and policy matters. The committee did its work through its own expert deliberations and by soliciting input from key officials in its sponsoring agency (DOE) and numerous experts in both the United States and Japan, including govern- ment officials, academic researchers, supercomputer manufacturers, soft- ware vendors, supercomputer center managers, and application users of supercomputing systems (see Appendix B). In addition to meeting six times, the committee hosted a workshop attended by more than 20 scien- tists from a broad range of disciplines to explore the supercomputing needs and opportunities of key scientific domains in the coming decade and to discuss the supercomputing technologies that will facilitate super- computer use in these domains. Many of the workshop participants pro- vided white papers (see Appendix C for a list) expressing their views on computational challenges in supercomputing, which informed both the workshop and this report. The committee also visited five DOE supercomputer centers and the National Security Agency’s (NSA’s) Supercomputer Center (see Appen- dix B). A subset of the committee received classified briefings from the Department of Energy on stockpile stewardship and from the NSA on signals intelligence that helped illuminate how these mission require- ments drive supercomputing needs now and in the future. Given that a significant fraction of government funding of supercomputing is for clas- sified national security programs, the committee believed such briefings were needed to ensure that its report would be useful for the entire supercomputing community. Having received the briefings, the commit- tee believes that the needs of the classified supercomputing applications reinforce, but do not change, the committee’s findings and recommenda- tions for the future of supercomputing. This unclassified report does not have a classified annex, nor is there a classified version. To facilitate communication within the broader community, the com- mittee hosted a town hall meeting at the annual 2003 Supercomputing PREFACE ix Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. In addition, a subset of the committee spent one week in Japan meeting with senior colleagues from the Japa- nese government, industry, and academia to discuss scientific, technical, and policy issues of mutual interest and to better understand both the similarities and the differences in how the two countries approach super- computing. They visited several sites in Japan, including the Earth Simu- lator; the government ministry responsible for funding the Earth Simula- tor; a university supercomputer center; Japan’s Aerospace Exploration Agency; and an auto manufacturer. On the committee’s behalf, the Na- tional Academy of Engineering co-sponsored with the Engineering Acad- emy of Japan a 1-day forum in Tokyo on the future of supercomputing. Twenty-five Japanese supercomputing experts participated in the forum. The sharing of ideas in those meetings provided important perspectives that contributed to the completeness and accuracy of this report. It is the hope of the committee that activities such as the Tokyo forum will lead to future collaboration between Japan and the United States in areas that will advance supercomputing in both countries. 2 In July 2003, the committee released an interim report that provided a high-level description of the state of U.S. supercomputing, the needs of the future, and the factors that contribute to meeting those needs. That report generated a number of comments that helped to guide the commit- tee in its work for this final report. Additional inputs helpful to commit- tee members and staff came from professional conferences, the technical literature, and government reports. The committee is grateful to the many people who contributed to this complex study and its comprehensive report. First and foremost, the com- mittee thanks the sponsors, DOE’s Office of Science (Fred Johnson and Dan Hitchcock) and DOE’s NNSA (Dimitri Kusnezov, Edgar Lewis, and José Muñoz), not only for their financial support but also for their help in facilitating meetings with people with whom its members wished to speak. The committee appreciates the thoughtful testimony received from many individuals at its plenary sessions (see Appendix B for a complete list of briefers). The NSA and DOE site visits provided critical input to the committee deliberations. These site visits would not have been possible without the assistance of people at each locale. The committee and staff thank the following people for their help: Gary D. Hughes (NSA), Lynn Kissel (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), James S. Peery (Los Alamos National Laboratory),Horst D. Simon (Lawrence Berkeley Na- 2 National Research Council (NRC). 2003. The Future of Supercomputing: An Interim Report. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

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