Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education: The Forecasting Activities of Three European Labour Market Research Institutes

214 Pages·1994·9.283 MB·English

by  Hans Heijke (auth.), Hans Heijke (eds.)

FORECASTING THE LABOUR MARKET BY
OCCUPATION AND EDUCATION
FORECASTING THE LABOUR MARKET BY
OCCUPATION AND EDUCATION
The Forecasting Activities of Three
European Labour Market Research
Institutes
edited
by
HANSHEIJKE
Research Centre for Education
and the Labour Market
University of Limburg
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education : the
forecasting activities of three European labour market research
institutes/ edited by Hans Heijke.
p. cm.
"Papers ... presented by three European institutes for labour
market research ata symposium, held on May 8th 1992, on ... the
fifth anniversary of the founding of ... the Research Centre for
Education and the Labour Market (ROA) in Maastricht"--Fwd.
ISBN 978-94-010-4595-7 ISBN 978-94-011-1362-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-1362-5
1. Labor market--Research--Europe--Congresses. 2. Employment
forecasting --Research --Europe--Congresses. 3 . Occupations
-Forecasting--Research--Europe--Congresses. 4. High school
graduates--Emp loyment --Forecasting --Research --Europe--Congresses.
5 . College graduates--Employment --Forecasting --Research --Europe
-Congresses. 1. Heijke, J. A. M.
HD5702.5.E8567 1994
33.12'094'01--dc20 93-49431
CIP
Copyright © 1994 by Springer Science+Business Media New York
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1994
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1994
AII rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical,
photo-copying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of
the publisher, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Printed on acid-free paper.
Contents
List of figures vii
List of tables ix
Contributors xi
Foreword xv
Introduction
Hans Heijke 1
Part I Models and Methods
Chapter 1: Modelling and forecasting the structure of
employment in the United Kingdom
Rob Wilson 9
Chapter 2: Medium and long-term forecasting of employment
in Germany
Johann Fuchs, Manfred Tessaring 37
Chapter 3: Indicating the future labour market prospects of
occupational groups and types of education in the
Netherlands
Ron Dekker, Andries de Grip, Hans Heijke 55
vi
Part II Forecasts
Chapter 4: Policy implications of recent IER assessments of
the British labour market
Roben Lindley 87
Chapter 5: Manpower requirements by levels of qualification
in the federal republic of Germany until 2010
Manfred Tessaring 113
Chapter 6: The market position of occupations and types of
education in the Netherlands
Rolfvan der Velden, Ed Willems 137
Part III Reflections
Chapter 7: A perspective on IER forecasting activities
Roben Lindley 167
Chapter 8: lAB's medium and long term labour market
projections - selected aspects
Gerhard Kahlewind 181
Chapter 9: ROA's activities and plans relating to the
information system on education and the labour
market
Hans Heijke 197
List of Figures
Figure 1.1. Models and sub-models 14
Figure 1.2. Extrapolative method for occupational proportions 28
Figure 3.1. Forecasts in the information system on education
and the labour market 59
Figure 3.2. Structure of the employment forecasts 63
Figure 3.3. Input-output table of labour market flows 72
Figure 4.1. Changes in employment status, 1990-2000 89
Figure 4.2. Changes in labour force, employment and unemploy-
ment, 1990-2000 89
Figure 4.3. Changes in industrial employment, 1990-2000 90
Figure 4.4. Changes in occupational employment, 1990-2000 92
Figure 4.5. Projected changes in employment by qualification
level 96
Figure 4.6. Projected changes in employment of graduates by
subject 96
Figure 4.7. Projected changes in economically active by
qualification level 97
Figure 4.8. Projected changes in economically active
graduates by subject 97
Figure 4.9. Projected changes in the labour force, 1990-2000 100
Figure 4.10. Occupational deployment of males and females
aged 55 and over, 2000 102
or
viii List Figures
Figure 5.1. Manpower demand by levels of qualifications in
the GDR up to 2010 128
Figure 8.1. Steps of the lAB labour market projections 184
Figure 8.2. Labour market balance 1970-2010 - actual
development and results of model calculations 186
Figure 8.3. Changes of the numbers in paid employment, a
functional breakdown by industries, 1987/2010
(middle variant) 187
Figure 8.4. Flexibility, substitution, mobility 190
Figure 8.5. Comparison of the number of persons leaving the
general education system and the number of
places of full occupational qualification,
1971-1990 192
Figure 9.1. The status of ROA's information system on
education and the labour market 203
List of Tables
Table 5.1. Basic results of the IAB/Prognos projection 1989 117
Table 5.2. Manpower requirement in production-related
activities 120
Table 5.3. Manpower requirement in primary service
activities 120
Table 5.4. Manpower requirement in secondary service
activities 121
Table 5.5. Qualification requirement until the year 2010 by
different variants (1000 persons) 129
Table 6.1. Numbers working by economic sub-sectors, 1990 140
Table 6.2. Changes in employment (numbers working), by
economic sub-sectors, 1979-1985 and 1989-1994
(average annual growth) 141
Table 6.3. Numbers working by occupational sectors, 1990 142
Table 6.4. Numbers working by educational categories, 1990 143
Table 6.5. Changes in employment by occupational sectors,
1979-1985 and 1989-1994 (average annual growth) 144
Table 6.6. Employment by educational categories, 1979-1985
and 1989-1994 (average annual growth) 145
Table 6.7. Occupational groups with a large number of job
openings, 1989-1994 (absolute numbers and as
percentages of the number of workers in 1989) 147
Table 6.8. Occupational groups with few job openings,
x List of Tables
1989-1994 (absolute numbers and as percentages
of the number of workers in 1989) 148
Table 6.9. Occupational groups with the highest proportion
of workers under 30 years old in 1990 149
Table 6.10. Occupational groups with the highest and lowest
cyclical sensitivities 150
Table 6.11. Types of education with the highest and lowest
unemployment rates in April 1991 152
Table 6.12. Types of education with the highest, and with the
lowest, rates of under-utilization in 1990 153
Table 6.13. Types of education with good labour market
prospects, 1989-1994 155
Table 6.14. Types of education with poor labour market
prospects, 1989-1994 156
Table 6.15. Types of education with the greatest and with
the smallest potentials for occupational mobility
at the same or a higher function level, 1990 158
Table 8.1. Seven types of projections 182
Contributors
R.J.P. Dekker finished his study econometrics in 1987 at Tilburg
University. Since 1987 he has been working as Researcher at the
Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA), Univer
sity of Limburg, and has participated in several projects. Since 1989
he has been Project Leader responsible for the data tlows within the
Information System for Education and the Labour Market. Other fields
of research are mobility processes in internal labour markets, with
special attention to career paths.
Dr. J. Fuchs works as a Researcher at the Institute of Employment
Research (Institut fUr Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, lAB). In
1988 he finished his doctoral thesis about 'Forecasting Debt Resche
duling of Developing Countries' at the University of Erlangen/Nurem
berg. From 1989 to 1990 he developed an intlow-outtlow model for
paid employment by sectors, gender, age and occupational status.
After that he became project leader of a project that deals with long
term forecasting of the potential labour force in East Germany. Since
the SYSIFO project started in 1989, medium and long term econome
tric research on the labour market has been one of his major tasks.
Dr. A. de Grip works as Chief Researcher at the Research Centre for
Education and the Labour Market (ROA), University of Limburg. He
is responsible within ROA for the Information System on Education