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‘To impugn absentee ballots as lesser votes is an affront to democracy’ Editorial Comment
— PAGE 18
US election on a knife edge
3 Trump defies polls with strong showing and 3 Biden takes narrow lead in key battlegrounds,
vows to challenge late counting of votes in court raising hopes of winning the White House
President Donald Trump made key gains among Latino voters, particularly in Florida Joe Biden won Arizona and also traditional Democratic states such as New York and California
Carlos Barria/Reuters Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty
request one and would “immediately do picked up traditional Democratic democratic rights of American citizens”. they will prevail.” Mr Trump has tried to The Trump camp maintained that
FT reporters
so”. With the count also continuing in strongholds such as California and New “If the president makes good on his paint the huge number of postal ballots the president would be re-elected.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden both Pennsylvania, a clear winner of the York, which award a total of 84 electoral threat to go to court to try to prevent the as unanticipated. Bill Stepien, his campaign manager,
claimed they were on course to win the 2020 election may not emerge for days. college votes. proper tabulation of votes, we have legal However, the state authorities that said: “We are confident in our path-
US election yesterday after a rancorous As states scrambled to count millions The two candidates were focused yes- teams standing by ready to deploy to administer US elections have known for way. We are confident in our math.”
campaign disrupted by the coronavirus of absentee ballots, neither candidate terday on the states that remained in resist that effort,” Mr Biden said. “And weeks that an unprecedented number of Mr Biden can afford to lose more of
pandemic drew to an end without a had secured the 270 electoral college play: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Americans planned to vote early, by mail the battleground states than Mr
clear winner. votes needed to win the presidency. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, or in person, because of the pandemic. Trump and still win the White House.
With votes still being counted in sev- Mr Trump defied polls that had which accepts mail-in ballots within According to the US Elections Project The Democratic nominee could
eral battleground states 24 hours after shown him trailing significantly head- three days of the poll. at the University of Florida, more than lose Pennsylvania, North Carolina
polls closed, Mr Biden took a narrow ing into election day, with his conserva- The Trump campaign intensified its 100m Americans voted before Tuesday, and Georgia but still prevail if he
lead in Wisconsin, Michigan and tive base of supporters turning out in big efforts to cast aspersions on mail-in bal- putting the US on course for a record clinches Wisconsin, Michigan, Ari-
Nevada, raising his hopes for an elec- numbers. The US president won the lots, with the president writing on Twit- turnout when all the ballots are counted. zona and Nevada.
toral college victory — and the White crucial swing states of Ohio and Florida, ter that he was “leading, often solidly” in News & analysis pages 2-6 The Biden campaign expressed confi- If Mr Trump loses Pennsylvania, he
House. as he did in 2016, as well as Texas, a bat- key battlegrounds. He added that his Oil shares climb page 10 dence that the former vice-president can afford only to lose Nevada, which
But the Trump camp vowed to fight tleground for the first time in decades. lead “started to magically disappear as Markets pages 12 & 13 would win because the majority of Hillary Clinton won in 2016, if he is to
on and challenge the late counting of Mr Trump also made gains among His- surprise ballot dumps were counted”. Janan Ganesh uncounted ballots in Wisconsin, Michi- still triumph in the election.
votes in the courts. It requested a panic voters, a crucial voting bloc for Mr Biden accused Mr Trump of mak- & Gillian Tett page 19 gan and Pennsylvania were from heavily Reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo,
recount in Wisconsin, saying Mr Trump Democrats, in Florida. ing an “outrageous” statement that Lex page 20 Democratic areas — particularly in James Politi, Lauren Fedor, Courtney
was “well within the threshold” to Mr Biden won Arizona and also was a “naked effort to take away the Michigan and Pennsylvania. Weaver, Aime Williams and Kiran Stacey
Mountain of mail ballots looms over
Philadelphia in long push to final tally
Joshua Chaffin — Philadelphia could take days, election officials have cast. The bulk of those are from the big
warned, leaving residents in a collective cities and urban areas that are expected
It took Karri Ray a cane, a bottle of
state of agony. “It’s crazy,” said Anton to tilt heavily toward Mr Biden. Like Ms
water, a folding metal chair and the
Moore, the Democratic leader for the Ray, they appeared to be limping —
kindness of strangers to travel the
48th ward, summing up the stomach- slowly but steadily — across the finish
roughly 100 yards from a kerb to the
Beijing halted $37bn Ant churning mood. line and narrowing the gap.
polling place in south Philadelphia to
While nerves were jangling, the con- Under a contested ruling from the
IPO ‘to maintain stability’ cast her ballot on Tuesday evening. Ms
test was playing out much the way many Pennsylvania Supreme Court, mail bal-
Ray, asthmatic and infirm, was also
As investors reel from the eleventh- election experts had predicted — and lots can arrive and be counted up to
propelled by something else: a seething
hour halting of the record-breaking feared: Mr Trump raced out to a big lead three days after election day.
contempt for President Donald Trump.
$37bn initial public offering of Ant among in-person voters, particularly in The scenario that has stirred near-
Group, controlled by China’s richest “Anything to get his ass out,” her daugh- the rural heartland that lies between universal dread is that the race is tight
man, Jack Ma, officials say they acted ter, Toni, explained during one of three Pennsylvania’s urban poles, Philadel- enough that those late-arriving ballots
to protect capital markets. The block pit stops in which an ailing Ms Ray phia and Pittsburgh. come into play and become the subject
is likely to have come from the very rested on the aforementioned chair as As of 3am yesterday, he enjoyed a of legal challenges that could rise to the
top, perhaps from President Xi Jinping she gasped for breath. margin of about 657,000 votes over Joe Supreme Court.
himself. Ant’s IPO created a frenzy By yesterday morning, that proposi- Biden out of more than 5m ballots In anticipation of litigation, the state
with investors but, behind the scenes, tion hung in the balance as the passion counted by that point, prompting him had ordered that those ballots be kept
regulators are tightening control of and determination of voters in the vital to declare victory in a state that is essen- separate — a process that election law-
China’s booming micro-lending sector. swing state of Pennsylvania had given tial to his re-election bid. yers likened to stacking kindling for a
Report i PAGE 8 way to the clerical toil of counting more But yet to be processed were more fire. The first legal matches were struck
than 1m mail ballots. It is a task that than 1m mail ballots from a record 2.5m Continued on page 4
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NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:FrontBack Time: 4/11/2020 - 19:07 User: nick.miller Page Name: 1FRONT USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 1, 1
2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 5 November 2020
US electioN
Clockwise from main photo: ballots are processed in California; an election
watch party at the US embassy in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; a Democrat voter in
Florida; and, below, Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate
— Zuma/DPA/AFP/Getty
Biden landslide hopes turn to nail-biting finish
Poor result among conservative Latino voters in Florida exposes a weakness in Democratic campaign strategy
Demetri Sevastopulo, Courtney Mr Biden emerged when results arrived egy to try to expand the Democratic would remain Democratic. In Miami- ‘We as a western states. During the Democratic
Weaver and Lauren Fedor from Florida’s Miami-Dade, a 2.7m- base in a state that had voted for a Dem- Dade, two Democrats who had taken primary, Mr Biden emphasised he had
Washington party still
strong heavily Hispanic county that ocrat only once since Harry Truman Republican seats two years ago were grown up in a working-class family in
By the early hours of yesterday Donald includes Miami. While Florida was won in 1948. ousted, partly because of the party’s have a lot of Pennsylvania and was a longtime sup-
Trump and Joe Biden still did not know viewed as one of the tightest swing The plan to attack Mr Trump over his poorer than expected performance in porter of workers’ unions.
work to
who had won the presidential election states, Mr Biden’s weakness with His- response to the pandemic also appeared the Latino community. But they also Democrats hoped that background
but one thing was clear: Democrats had panics in the area appeared to have to have been less effective than the The result lost seats in Charleston, South Carolina, expand the would allow him to rebuild the “blue
not secured the big victory some had stopped the Democrats reclaiming the Democrats had expected. The presi- For live results and a swath of New York’s Long Island. wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn-
anticipated. state from Mr Trump. dent’s approval ratings appeared to dip and what each Democrats also failed to flip several number of sylvania that Mr Trump broke four
candidate has
Heading into election day, Democrats “We as a party still have a lot of work in early October, after he was hospital- districts in the Houston, Austin and San Latino years ago when he won the former Dem-
to do to win
were not only confident they would to expand the number of Latino voters ised for Covid-19, and polls showed most Antonio suburbs. Those losses contrib- ocratic strongholds.
avoid a repeat of the surprise loss in in particular who vote Democratic. Americans disapproved of his handling ig.ft.com/us- uted to Mr Biden’s failure to win Texas, a voters’ Mr Biden had stepped up campaign-
election-2020
2016, but were counting on several fac- What happened in Florida is not accept- of his own infection. state that had not voted for a Democrat ing in Ohio in recent weeks after local
tors to give Mr Biden a strong tailwind. able,” said Jim Manley, who served as a But as election results trickled in, it since 1976 but which has become more Democrats told him he had a chance of
Instead, the Democratic challenger was top aide to Harry Reid, the former Dem- was clear that many voters had not cast liberal because of demographic victory. But Mr Trump won the rustbelt
left in a nail-biting fight to the finish ocratic Senate leader whose state of their ballots with Covid-19 in mind. changes. Winning state with almost the same level of sup-
Democrats had been buoyed by polls Nevada boasts a very large Hispanic According to a CNN exit poll, the econ- Mr Biden was hoping for better port as he had in 2016, raising concerns
back the
that showed Americans — including population. omy — the one issue where Mr Trump results in the suburbs in Pennsylvania about neighbouring Pennsylvania.
many Republicans — were frustrated Chuck Rocha, a consultant who consistently polled better than Mr and Michigan, two states crucial to suburban Mr Trump had a strong lead in Penn-
with how Mr Trump had handled the helped Bernie Sanders win a big propor- Biden — was the most important issue determining whether Mr Biden would sylvania early yesterday but the state
vote was
coronavirus pandemic. They banked on tion of Hispanics in the Democratic pri- for voters, followed by racial inequality emerge victorious when all outstand- had more than 1m absentee ballots to
suburban Republican women abandon- mary race against Mr Biden, said the and coronavirus. ing votes were tallied. particularly count. Democrats were hopeful that
ing the president and argued that Mr Florida result underscored how the The Biden campaign also banked on Exit polls from ABC News found that African Americans and suburban
important
Biden had the right background to win Biden campaign erred in the state. Republican women in the suburbs Mr Biden had a 3-point margin over Mr women in Philadelphia would help Mr
back white, working-class voters who “Tonight proves the Latino vote is a abandoning the president. Many Trump among suburban voters. Among for Biden’s Biden win a state that had voted Demo-
had switched to Mr Trump four years persuadable universe, but Democrats Democrats looked to their sig- female suburban voters, Mr Biden led cratic from 1992 to 2016.
chances
ago. Finally, Democrats believed Mr did not treat it as such,” Mr Rocha said. nificant gains in the 2018 Mr Trump 55 per cent to 44 per cent, “It’s just still too early to tell because
Biden would do better with black voters “So we are paying the price for not start- midterm elections — which the polls found. there are so many uncounted mail bal-
than Hillary Clinton in 2016, and would ing early and often, as they did with per- were driven by women — as The suburban vote was lots in Philadelphia,” said Brendan
appeal to anti-Trump Hispanics. suadable white voters.” proof that the party could particularly important for Boyle, a Democratic congressman and
But as the world waited for results Mr Rocha said that mistake would replicate those results in Mr Biden as a balance Biden supporter from Philadelphia as
from key outstanding states — Nevada, resonate beyond Florida, though to a the presidential race. against any weakness in he waited for a result yesterday. “They
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania lesser extent in states such as Arizona But the party found winning back the so- still have more than half of the vote left
— some of the weaknesses of the Demo- that lacked Florida’s large numbers of itself losing some of the dis- called Trump Demo- to count.”
cratic campaign were apparent. conservative Cuban Americans. Mr tricts it had flipped in 2018 crats in Pennsylva- See Editorial Comment, Opinion, Lex
One of the first signs of problems for Biden won Arizona, validating his strat- and that polls had suggested nia and the Mid- and Markets Insight

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Eric Platt and Colby Smith for the pandemic-stricken US economy. “Markets need to have a serious look stimulus was less likely to emerge.
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paced the wider S&P 500 this year, cant drivers for markets than the out- few days there is going to be very messy
Executive appointments Reproduction of the contents of this newspaper in
www.exec-appointments.com any manner is not permitted without the publisher’s bobbed 2.7 per cent higher. come of the election alone, she said. news flow,” said Mr Saint-Georges.
prior consent. ‘Financial Times’ and ‘FT’ are Investors also rushed into haven gov- The yield on the 10-year Treasury had 0.90 That kind of rhetoric may also be
Published by registered trade marks of The Financial Times
ernment bonds as they prepared for the briefly eclipsed 0.9 per cent late on helping to boost government bonds.
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330 Hudson St, New York, subject to a self-regulation regime under the FT poll outcome to remain unclear for Tuesday, hitting its highest since June, 0.85 “Some people are using bonds as a safe
NY 10013, USA; Editorial Code of Practice: days. The yield on the benchmark 10- on expecting that a big Democratic win haven, reflecting the risk of a contested
Tel: [phone]; www.ft.com/editorialcode year US Treasury slid 0.13 percentage could fire up government spending, and election with bad outcomes,” said Toby
Editor: Roula Khalaf 0.80
points to 0.77 per cent, its biggest potentially inflation. That was expected Nangle, global head of asset allocation at
Reprints are available of any FT article with your
Printed by company logo or contact details inserted if required decline since market gyrations in to place more downwards pressure on Columbia Threadneedle. “But I see it as
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Opinion polls had led investors to bet yields rising. Yet yields dropped as stantial stimulus.”
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For both services phone [phone], or that decisive Democratic victories results poured in, reflecting how some Additional reporting by Laurence Fletcher
Source: Bloomberg
Published daily except Sundays, New Year’s Day, alternatively, email [email protected] would spark another round of stimulus fund managers had been caught out. in London and Leo Lewis in Tokyo
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:World Time: 4/11/2020 - 18:01 User: sanjay.gohil Page Name: WORLD1 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 2, 1
Thursday 5 November 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3
US electioN
Ballots
Trump’s litigation pledge casts cloud over count
Legal action would have to stop. We don’t want them to find any landish, and no, there’s no actual legal were posted by November 3, although tion in the Florida courts before Amer- The significance of these and other
ballots at four o’clock in the morning basis behind any of it”. the law is not settled in Pennsylvania — a ica’s highest court took up the case. existing and potential disputes will ulti-
start in lower courts ahead
and add them to the list.” “What happens next is the same thing state seen as especially critical to Mr Court battles over the 2020 election mately rest on how close the eventual
of Supreme Court hearing He followed up later with a string of that’s happened for hundreds of years: Trump’s chance of winning — and could have raged leading up to November 3, vote totals are. Either side will contest
tweets about “ballot dumps”, an appar- we count the ballots that have been cast be the subject of further litigation by and some are continuing. These include each other’s moves in court, and proba-
ent reference to newly counted votes by eligible voters,” he said. Republicans. two cases in Pennsylvania relating to bly appeal against any ruling against
Kadhim Shubber — Washington that could make Mr Biden, the Demo- Still, the president’s comments have Legal action would have to begin in processes for allowing voters to fix them until it reaches the US Supreme
As several key battleground states raced cratic candidate, the eventual winner. cast a cloud over the continuing process, the lower state or federal courts before defective ballots, with local Republicans Court, which has a 6-3 majority of
to complete counting ballots, Donald Any lawsuits would not go directly to not least in states where mail ballots can working its way up to the US Supreme arguing it is not allowed under state law. Republican-appointed justices.
Trump yesterday said he would go to the Supreme Court, however, and there lawfully arrive after November 3. Court. There is no precedent for a gener- In Wisconsin, the Trump campaign “The US Supreme Court only gets
the Supreme Court to secure his re-elec- is little legal basis for the idea that the In some states still counting, such as alised halt on counting ballots, or even a has already begun forecasting the possi- involved if there’s a genuine basis for lit-
tion, setting up the possibility of pro- courts would order a general halt on Pennsylvania, Republican lawmakers halt in a specific state at this very early bility of a recount. “That is recount ter- igating over enough ballots that could
tracted litigation over the eventual what the president referred to as “all refused to let the election officials start stage. In Bush vs Gore in 2000, the ritory,” Bill Stepien, the Trump cam- make a difference,” said Edward Foley, a
result. voting”. Polls have closed and election counting mailed ballots ahead of polling Supreme Court halted a recount of votes paign manager, said of the close margins professor at The Ohio State University
“We’ll be going to the US Supreme officials are now tallying the results. day, leaving a backlog of votes that are — not an initial count — and did not in the state yesterday. Wisconsin law Moritz College of Law. “It’s going to take
Court,” Mr Trump said in the early Justin Levitt, an election law profes- expected to lean to the Democrats. issue its contentious decision until does not automatically call for a recount at least several days to have a sense of
hours of yesterday, claiming victory at a sor at Loyola Law School, called Mr In certain states, it is legal for mail bal- almost the middle of December, weeks but if the margin of victory is less than what the landscape really looks like.
press conference. “We want all voting to Trump’s comments “exceedingly out- lots to arrive after polling day if they after polling day. There had been litiga- 1 per cent, a recount can be requested. We’re still in the beginning.”
Warning labels
Facebook and
Twitter act
to curb false
information
Hannah Murphy — San Francisco
Sid Venkataramakrishnan — London
Facebook and Twitter scrambled to
live up to their pledges to curb online
election interference and misinforma-
tion yesterday, adding cautionary
labels to a stream of misleading posts
from President Donald Trump.
The Silicon Valley social media groups
had said they would clamp down on any
political candidate spreading misinfor-
mation around the election process,
despite accusations from Republicans
that they censor rightwing voices.
But with the result of the election
hanging in the balance, experts argued
that the platforms’ differing approaches
to the president’s rule-breaching posts
— despite being swift — fell short of fully
curbing their impact. They also warned
the companies failed to counter what
they said was a deluge of voter misinfor-
mation that targeted swing states in par-
Fact check In a statement from the White House and we won’t stand for it. We will not Throughout the campaign Mr Trump the US Supreme Court. We want all ticular, with some high-profile conserv-
early yesterday, President Donald stand for it.” has been claiming — without evidence voting to stop. We don’t want them ative figures amplifying dubious claims.
Trump falsely claimed he had already — that the use of postal ballots, which to find any ballots at four o’clock in “For all the attention on disinforma-
President’s
won re-election, reviving concerns he There is no evidence of any effort to was expanded because of the the morning and add them to the tion from the president, I think there
may not accept the final result if he is “disenfranchise” Americans who voted pandemic, would lead to widespread list.” was a failure to adequately deal with his
unfounded defeated. for Mr Trump. Rather, state officials fraud. He repeated that claim influential aides and allies who have so
The president vowed to block any were still tallying ballots that were yesterday morning. Mr Trump quickly invoked America’s much clout in the rightwing media eco-
further counting of ballots, even as legitimately cast, including those highest court, where there is a solid system,” said Jesse Lehrich, head of
fraud claims
state officials in several crucial favouring the incumbent US president. “This is a fraud on the American conservative majority, suggesting it social media non-profit group Account-
battlegrounds with close races were public. This is an embarrassment to might intervene to deliver him victory. able Tech and a former foreign policy
still tallying votes. “It’s also clear that we have won our country. We were getting ready Any potential legal challenge would spokesman for Hillary Clinton.
The remarks made by Mr Trump — Georgia. We’re up by 2.5 per cent or to win this election. Frankly, we did have to be filed on a state-by-state “Now there are thousands of Trump
who was surrounded by a group of top 117,000 votes with only 7 per cent win this election. We did win this basis in either a state or a federal court supporters who baselessly believe the
aides and supporters, as well as Vice- left. They’re never going to catch us. election.” before winding its way up to the state was stolen from them, which is
president Mike Pence — break from They can’t catch us.” Supreme Court. such a dangerous dynamic.”
the tradition of US presidential There was no evidence for Mr Trump’s The courts are unlikely to halt In an unprecedented move, Facebook
contenders waiting until a concession At the time, the vote count was not claim of a “fraud” being perpetrated counts in general as Mr Trump opted to automatically add informa-
from their rival to claim victory. complete in Georgia, a battleground on the American public — and his demanded — there is nothing unlawful tional labels to all posts from the presi-
The comments were criticised by Joe state, and the Associated Press had yet victory claim was premature. or inappropriate about counting all dent and Mr Biden from late on Tues-
Biden’s campaign as “a naked effort to to call the state for Mr Biden or Mr The Associated Press had not called legitimately cast ballots. But the day, saying in a statement: “Once Presi-
take away the democratic rights of Trump yet. Many of the remaining the election for either Mr Trump or Mr Trump campaign may argue that dent Trump began making premature
American citizens”. votes were in the Atlanta area, which is Biden, and state election officials had certain ballots were cast unlawfully, claims of victory, we started running
The FT fact-checks key quotes from heavily Democratic, so while Mr not yet certified a result. The for example. notifications on Facebook and Insta-
the president’s statement. Trump was ahead, it was undecided. Democratic challenger had not The main precedent for a Supreme gram that voters are still being counted
conceded defeat. Mr Biden still had a Court intervention is the race between and a winner is not projected.”
“I want to thank the American “You know what happened? They good chance of prevailing, albeit George W Bush and Al Gore in 2000, This included a video in which the
people for their tremendous knew they couldn’t win so they said, narrowly, once all the votes were when the court halted a recount in president prematurely declared victory
Speaking out: Donald Trump is support, millions and millions of ‘Let’s go to court’ . . . I’ve been saying counted. Florida in December after weeks of and accused political opponents of “a
watched by wife Melania as he people voted for us tonight. And a this from the day I heard they were tension and litigation, handing victory major fraud”, which garnered more
makes an election night address very sad group of people is trying to going to send out tens of millions of “We want the law to be used in a to Mr Bush. than 9.5m views and close to 70,000
in the White House disenfranchise that group of people ballots.” proper manner. So we’ll be going to James Politi and Kadhim Shubber shares, according to Crowdtangle.
— Al Drago/Bloomberg
Twitter added warning labels to sev-
eral tweets from the president, includ-
ing one alleging that his opponents “are
trying to STEAL the Election” and
Bitter campaign has resolved little while throwing two dangers into the mix restricted the sharing of the posts — a
step not taken by Facebook. The labels
had to be clicked on for users to see the
tweets beneath.
However, at the time of writing, the
complaints could play a part in deciding But the race was far closer than any of still being counted in the three blue wall groundwork, saying in his speech yes- platform had not added any label to the
insight who becomes the next president. the models predicted, including the states. Mr Biden could afford to lose one, terday that the election “is a fraud on video that Facebook flagged, which had
Indeed Mr Trump promised in an Trump campaign’s internal numbers. including Pennsylvania, and still win the American public. This is an embar- been initially posted by Mr Trump’s
Edward
early morning speech yesterday to chal- The most cited forecaster, Nate Silver, the election, but not more unless he rassment to our country.” campaign account on Twitter and
Luce lenge the continuing vote tallies in gave Mr Biden an 89 per cent chance of made gains elsewhere. The second danger is to the legitimacy shared nearly 40,000 times, including
court. “Frankly, we did win this elec- winning (against 70 per cent for Mrs Either way, America faces two dan- of the system. If Mr Trump won the elec- by Mr Trump himself.
tion,” he said. “So we’ll be going to the Clinton last time). Further, this was gers, one immediate, the other struc- toral college, it would be the second Facebook and Twitter have been drip-
US Supreme Court. We want all voting to after pollsters made considerable ad­- tural. The first is that the judiciary may time he had done so with a minority of feeding out new policies in recent
stop.” justments to correct the undercounting well get involved in deciding the out- the vote and the third time a Republican months, including pledges to add warn-
E lections are meant to resolve Moreover, the US postal service was of white, blue-collar voters in the Mid- come. Constitutional scholars have has done so this century. ing labels to premature claims of vic-
differences. But whichever of looking for 300,000 postal ballots that been warning about this for months. In other systems where the president tory. In the wake of revelations that Rus-
Donald Trump or Joe Biden were processed but not scanned for The electoral college is This is because of the order in which bal- is elected, Mr Biden would already have sia waged disinformation campaigns
prevails in the presidential delivery, including some in Pennsylva- lots are counted in the three key swing been declared the winner. The electoral during the 2016 US presidential election
like a dodgy appendix that
race, at time of writing too nia and Wisconsin. The situation had states. college, which gives outsized influence in a bid to sway the vote, the companies
close to call, he will inherit a country in the ingredients to turn into a protracted haemorrhages a little more Mr Trump, who did much better to small, rural states, is like a dodgy had promised to better police their plat-
which roughly half the electorate rejects battle, like the month-long fight over among voters who went to the polls on appendix that haemorrhages a little forms this time around.
bile with each election
his legitimacy. Florida in 2000 that was resolved when Tuesday, appeared initially to be heavily more bile with each election. Facebook raced out eleventh-hour
It could get worse. As in 2016, a US the US Supreme Court halted a recount. in the lead in each of the three. Dubbed If Mr Biden prevails, he will inherit a policy changes, confirming just hours
presidential count looked like it would No wonder Mr Trump claimed that the “red mirage” by political scientists, profoundly divided country that will be before election day that it was temporar-
boil down to Pennsylvania, Michigan “they are trying to steal the election” in west and elsewhere and take into this lead shrank as the mail-in ballots hard to govern, especially if the Senate ily disabling its recommendations tool
and Wisconsin. The one wild card was a post that Twitter marked as “disputed account the way education affects vot- were counted. remains in Republican hands. that directs users to join political groups,
that Georgia might also be in play for the or misleading”. ing patterns. This gives Mr Trump a window to If Mr Trump loses, he will still have and also temporarily restricting Insta-
first time since 1992. How did it end up like this? Polls It looks like that was not enough. Mr repeat his pre-election claims that outperformed all expectations. The gram users from discovering certain
The other big difference between now before the vote suggested that Mr Biden Trump’s clear win in Florida was partly mail-in ballots are fraudulent and peti- Republican party is Trumpian for the content from users they do not know.
and four years ago was that it could take would win by a clear margin. There was fuelled by a boost in his support from tion to have some thrown out. The 2000 foreseeable future. “We are a working- But some experts argued that the
days to tally all the votes. a reasonable chance he would still win Hispanic and especially Cuban voters. Florida recount was partly derailed by class party now. That’s the future,” moves to label posts were ineffective.
Meanwhile Republicans have already the electoral college once all the votes Polls ahead of the election had given Mr the so-called Brooks Brothers riot, in tweeted Josh Hawley, the Missouri sena- “Facebook’s failure to obscure misin-
filed at least two election day lawsuits in were counted in those three so-called Biden an average lead of more than 2 which Republican protesters managed tor who has 2024 presidential aspira- formation but instead to ‘label’ does not
Pennsylvania to contest the legitimacy blue wall states. In addition, it looked percentage points in the state. to stop the recount in one critical tions. The American people have spo- curb the message’s impact,” said
of postal votes. Since a majority of like he was heading to a victory in the It is possible the pollsters and fore- county. A repeat of that kind of incident ken. And it is a cacophonous noise. Marietje Schaake, international policy
mail-in ballots were sent in by Demo- popular vote, probably larger than Hil- casters also overestimated the high cannot be ruled out. director at Stanford University’s Cyber
crats, the fate of the Republican legal lary Clinton’s 2.9m margin. Democratic share of the mail-in ballots Mr Trump is already laying the [email protected] Policy Center.
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:World Time: 4/11/2020 - 18:56 User: sanjay.gohil Page Name: WORLD2 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 3, 1
4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 5 November 2020
US electioN
Capitol Hill
Democrats’ hopes dimmed in Senate battle
Republican-controlled But Tuesday’s results set the stage for Iowa and South Carolina, making their If President Donald Trump is re- In South Carolina, Mr Graham, a one- Kentucky, defeating Democratic chal-
a possible “divided” government if defeats there a significant blow. elected, Democrats would need a net time Trump critic who became a lenger Amy McGrath, a former marine
chamber would leave a
Democrat Joe Biden wins the White Results in the battleground states of gain of four seats to control the Senate, staunch ally of the president, defeated fighter pilot.
Biden presidency hobbled House but Republicans maintain con- North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michi- as the vice-president can cast a tie- Jaime Harrison, the Democratic chal- Many states may take days or even
trol of the Senate. Under such a sce- gan and Alaska were yet to be called. breaking vote in the chamber. lenger, in the most expensive Senate weeks to finalise their vote counts from
nario, Mitch McConnell, Republican Democrats need a net gain of three race in history. Tuesday and at least one Senate race
Lauren Fedor — Washington
Senate majority leader, would be able to seats to take the Senate, if Mr Biden is Democrats had set their Mr Harrison, a 44-year-old former will not be decided until January.
The Democratic party’s hopes of regain- block every proposal from a Biden elected president. If Democrats fail to state party chairman, raised a record In Georgia, a special election to deter-
sights on flipping several
ing control of the Senate were dealt a administration. take the upper chamber it would stymie $109m in his bid to oust Mr Graham, 65, mine whether Republican Kelly Loeffler
blow after it failed to oust several Democrats ousted incumbents in Ari- the ability of a Biden administration to seats, making their defeats who called Mr Trump a “xenophobic, will keep the seat she was appointed to
Republican incumbents, including zona and Colorado, but a Republican appoint federal judges and reshape the religious bigot” in the run-up to the 2016 fill last December will advance to a run-
a significant blow
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and candidate won back a seat in Alabama, Supreme Court, which Mr Trump has election before changing his tune. off to be held on January 5.
Joni Ernst of Iowa. giving Mr Biden’s party a net gain of one given a 6-3 conservative majority. In Iowa, Ms Ernst saw off a challenge Ms Loeffler, a former Intercontinental
Democrats had sought to take back seat with several important races still Democratic activists have called for a Mr Biden’s party won its Senate tar- from Democrat Theresa Greenfield. In Exchange executive, will battle against
the reins of the upper chamber in order undeclared. Republicans went into the potential Biden administration to gets in Colorado, where former gover- Alabama, Doug Jones, the incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of
to push through their legislative agenda, elections holding 53 seats in the 100- expand the Supreme Court beyond its nor John Hickenlooper defeated Repub- Democrat, lost his race against Republi- Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, in
on issues ranging from healthcare to cli- member Senate. Democrats had set nine-member bench, amid concerns lican incumbent Cory Gardner, and Ari- can challenger Tommy Tuberville, a the run-off.
mate change, to an economic stimulus, their sights on flipping several of the that the court will rule to restrict abor- zona, where astronaut Mark Kelly beat former college football coach. Mr McCo- Democrats are expected to retain con-
without Republican support. most closely fought seats, including tion and voting rights. incumbent Martha McSally. nnell, meanwhile, won re-election in trol of the House of Representatives.
Electoral map What the candidates need to do to clinch victory
Joe Biden Donald Trump Trump outperformed the polls in many states
DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN Trump’s polls and win margin (percentage points) Polls margin
Win margin
238 213 Biden Trump
-10 0 10 20 30
451 out of 538 electoral college votes called Arkansas
270 to win
Louisiana
Kentucky
The solitary electoral college vote won South Dakota
by the Democrats in Nebraska’s 2nd Kansas
Congressional District could yet prove Montana
WA 12 pivotal to the outcome of the election South Carolina
ME 4 Texas
MT 3 ND 3 VT 3 Ohio
NH 4 Iowa
OR 7 MN 10 Florida
ID 4 Minnesota
SD 3 WI 10 NY 29 MA 11 Virginia
WY 3
MI 16 States called by the AP that have an estimated 90% of vote reported
CA 55 NV 6 NE 5 IA 6 PA 20 RI 4 Possible paths to the White House Biden win Trump win Yet to be called
UT 6 IL 20 IN 11 OH 18 CT 7 Biden can top 270 votes by winning ... but if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he will need
CO 9 WV 5 Pennsylvania and Michigan ... to win Michigan, Wisconsin and one other state
KS 6 MO 10 KY 8 VA 13 270 to win 270 to win
274 Biden Trump 213 270 233
NC 15 NJ 14 ME
VT
TN 11
NH
AZ 11 NM 5 OK 7 AR 6 SC 9 DE 3 WA MT ND MN WI MI NY CT MA WI MI
OR SD PA RI PA
MS 6 AL 9 GA 16 MD 10 NV ID WY NE IA IL IN OH NJ NV
MD
UT CO
LA 8 KS MO DE
AK 3 HI 4 TX 38 DC 3 CA AZ NM OK AR KY WVVA DC NC
FL 29 AK LA TN AL GA
SC
HI
MS
TX
Electoral college
FL
votes by state
Trump’s easiest path to victory involves ... but if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he must
Associated Press reported
KEY winning Pennsylvania ... win Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina
In most states, electoral votes are early yesterday that Arizona Trump’s victory in
distributed on a winner-takes-all had turned blue for the first Biden win Toss-up state Florida effectively 270 to win 270 to win
belaescitso. rIna lM voatinees acannd bNee bspralist ka, the time this century — and only Trump win (abvaesreadg eosn) polling ruled out an early 238 274 258 270
between candidates the second time since 1952 Yet to be called overall win for Biden
MI
House of Representatives Senate
PA PA
232 Outgoing House 197 47 Outgoing Senate 53 NV NV
193 185 47 47
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
NC NC
GA GA
AK AK
218 35 seats not 50 30 seats not
377 out of 435 races called up for election  29 out of 35 races called up for election
FT graphic As at 13:00 EST, Nov 4 Sources: Associated Press; FT analysis of polls on RealClearPolitics; FT research
Mountain of
results, again, even if that takes a little Theresa Upchurch, a poll worker for Wisconsin
longer than we’re used to.” the 16th ward, said Mr Samuel was typi-
Voters risk infection to watch results come in
mail ballots Philadelphia, the birthplace of Ameri- cal of the neighbourhood: “The young
can democracy and a city known for its men weren’t voting [before]. But they’re
creaky election machinery, has been coming out in droves.” As she spoke, a
looms over
under scrutiny like no other place in this propeller plane buzzed overhead, trail-
campaign since Mr Trump singled it out ing a banner urging citizens to vote. Claire Bushey — Kenosha, Wisconsin Mr Trump won Mr Nudo’s home a socially distanced party with a big
Philadelphia as a hotbed of election fraud. Alexis Dowell rolled up to a polling Patti Waldmeir — Chicago county of Kenosha by only 238 votes in screen, chicken wings and pizza.
“Bad things happen in Philadelphia,” place near Temple University in a Erin Decker, a Wisconsin Republican, 2016, his closest margin of victory in a Guests bundled in coats as the mer-
he said during the presidential debate, motorised wheelchair with a bumper surveyed a room full of like-minded state that he won by less than 23,000 cury dropped in the evening after an
unwittingly minting a popular new sticker reading My Daughter is an voters who risked catching coronavi- votes last time. unseasonably warm winter day. Cicely
Continued from page 1 T-shirt. Honor Student at Girls High. “I just rus to watch the results of the election Kenosha became the campaign focus Hunter, who lives in Kenosha, said the
A police shooting of a black man with don’t trust mail ballots,” she said of her trickle in on Tuesday night. of both US presidential candidates in election was an opportunity to undo
on Tuesday, with Republican lawyers in mental health issues, just days before decision to vote in person. August after a white policeman shot and some of the most obvious racism of the
suburban Montgomery County, outside the election, triggered protests and loot- For all the talk of armed militia mem- “Florida is looking really good for Presi- paralysed Jacob Blake, a black man. Trump administration.
Philadelphia, asking a court to invali- ing and deepened unease about how bers descending on the polls, the atmos- dent Trump,” Ms Decker said excitedly Widespread protests broke out, fol- “We need to move forward instead of
date some mail ballots because, they election day would play out. Store fronts phere at Mr Moore’s ward was festive. A as early returns showed him leading in lowed by fires, looting and rioting that continuous moving back,” she said.
claimed, election workers had processed were boarded up and pundits talked DJ played funk music outside a wedding the crucial battleground state. destroyed several businesses. A white The party was organised by Tanya
them too soon, giving voters a chance to hall that had been converted to a polling “It seems like a normal election night teen later killed two protesters as white McLean, executive director of Leaders
correct mistakes like missing signatures. ‘The delay that we’re station. Meanwhile, volunteers from watch party, despite the pandemic,” vigilante groups clashed with rioters. of Kenosha, an activist group, and the
As Philadelphians awoke to the rival charities — some from Brooklyn — added Ms Decker, the Republican party Mr Trump visited Kenosha several Service Employees International Union.
seeing is a sign that the
uncertainty of an election like no other competed to unload thousands of pizzas chair in Kenosha County, Wisconsin, a times and seized on the unrest to bolster She said it would have been demoralis-
in American history, the focus shifted to system is working’ and gourmet meals on local voters. “It’s key battleground in an important swing his appeal as a “law and order” candi- ing, after working to turn out the vote
a crew of about 100 election workers not going to get violent unless they try to state that is also one of the worst date to win over local white voters. and secure justice for Mr Blake, to watch
cloistered inside the cavernous Conven- Tom Wolf, Pennsylvania governor steal the election,” Mr Moore predicted. Covid-19 hotspots in the US. Five minutes away in a different part the results of their hard work alone.
tion Center and insulated from the pres- In the courtyard by the wedding hall, A life-sized cut-out of President of Kenosha and on the other side of the “We’ve been working really hard the
ident’s tweets. There they conveyed bal- about the risk of leftwing mobs or right- Ms Ray was lumbering towards a school Trump looked down over the room, political divide about 40 Democratic last couple months,” she said. “We
lots through an assembly line with vari- wing “patriots” unleashing violence. that was her assigned polling place, her which was filled with 40 or so guests, supporters gathered at a car park. They decided to do it as a family, because
ous stations including sorting, extrac- For all the anticipation, polling places daughter and folding chair in tow. She many of them wearing Make America watched the returns in an open tent, for we’re like family now.” Ten minutes
tion, slicing, unfolding and scanning. were generally smooth. That may have slumped on the steps, still 20 paces from Great Again baseball caps. They were later the screen briefly went dark as the
Lisa Deeley, the city’s leading election been, workers speculated, because so her destination. She had tried to vote by hunched over plates of cheese, sausage WiFi in the lot proved unreliable.
commissioner and a Democrat, turned many people had taken the opportunity mail, she explained: “Somehow, some or pepperoni pizza served by the Italian A new administration is important,
tautologous as she updated reporters to vote early and avoid the risk of Covid way, it didn’t work out for me.” eatery booked for the occasion. Almost Ms McLean said, but she noted: “Biden
yesterday morning on their progress. infection at a crowded polling place. “Take your time,” a poll worker coun- no one wore a mask. is a doorway, not a destination. He has
“We’ll be done as soon as we’re done,” Jamar Samuel, 27, felt such conviction selled. “You’ve got until 8 o’clock.” The pandemic raged outside: over the promised the black community certain
she said. “We’re going to count the votes that he wanted to vote in person on the Her husband, a security guard, past month, Wisconsin has been one of things, and we’re going to hold him to it.”
and we’re going to end up at the end.” day, or, as he put it, “go straight to the arrived, and there was a family discus- the US states worst-hit by the latest In nearby Milwaukee, members of the
Tom Wolf, the Pennsylvania gover- source”. A resident of the overwhelm- sion. A short while later, Toni Ray left surge in Covid-19 cases, with the state’s local Democratic Socialists of America
nor, also pleaded for patience, saying: ingly black north Philadelphia, he voted before returning in a car with a taped-up seven-day average Covid-19 positivity chapter joined a Zoom call to watch
“The delay that we’re seeing is a sign for Barack Obama in 2012, but skipped mirror to carry her mother the final dis- rate topping 30 per cent in recent days. election results for Mr Biden, their pre-
that the system is working.” the 2016 election. “I regret it, but I didn’t tance. A young man took her under the “So far, so good,” said Gabe Nudo, as ferred candidate. The mood turned
He added: “We may not know the vote last time,” Mr Samuel said. It was arm and helped the elder Ms Ray up the he watched returns relayed by Fox noticeably glum as Mr Trump appeared
results even today, but the most impor- Mr Trump who brought him back to the steps. “We’re gonna make sure you get News, which was playing on widescreen Glued to the TV: customers watch to be doing better than expected in early
tant thing is that we have accurate polls. “We gotta get him out of office.” your opportunity to vote,” he promised. televisions mounted behind the bar. the election at a Wisconsin bar returns from several states.
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:World Time: 4/11/2020 - 18:56 User: gerry.white Page Name: WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 4, 1
Thursday 5 November 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 5
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:Ad Page Time: 4/11/2020 - 18:36 User: joe.russ Page Name: AD GLOBAL X, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 5, 1
6 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 5 November 2020
US electioN
Economy matters most to voters after
Environmental pact
Washington
retreat from
four years of tumult under Trump
Paris climate
accord
With tax cuts and trade wars, the US rode a wave of expansion until pandemic struck confirmed
James Politi — Washington Leslie Hook — London
Employment in Trump-supporting states fared better than others Financial services is best employment performer in Trump era
Brooke Fox — New York Katrina Manson — Washington
Exit polls underscored what Donald Nonfarm employees (rebased, Jan 2017=100) Covid-19 12-month change in nonfarm employees (%) The US has formally withdrawn from
Trump and the Republicans had pandemic the Paris climate agreement, two-and-
110 10
obsessed with throughout the campaign 1. Idaho 1. Financial activities a-half years after President Donald
— that the economy, above other issues 2. Utah 2. Retail trade Trump announced plans to pull out of
such as the pandemic and racial ine- 105 3. Arizona 0 43.. CGoonvsetrrnumcteinotn the ambitious environmental pact.
quality, was the issue that mattered 4. South Carolina 5. Education & health services
100 5. Colorado
most to voters. -10 6. Manufacturing The exit of the second-biggest global
The US election capped almost four 7. Professional & business carbon dioxide emitter from the 189-
95 services
years of tumult for the world’s largest 46. Michigan nation accord is a milestone in a presi-
-20 8. Information
47. New York
economy on Tuesday as President 90 48. Alaska 9. Mining and logging dency that has pushed through a weak-
Trump secured a $1.7tn tax cut, 49. Vermont -30 10. Liesure and hospitality ening of environmental regulations and
launched trade wars around the world, 85 voiced support for the fossil fuel sector.
and grappled with the fallout from a Mr Trump has described the pact as a
pandemic that threw millions of Ameri- 80 50. Hawaii -40 deal that “disadvantages the US to the
cans out of work. exclusive benefit of other countries”.
Before coronavirus hit, the US was 75 -50 The US, under then president Barack
riding the long wave of an expansion Obama, played a central role in develop-
2017 18 19 20 2017 18 19 20
that began under Barack Obama in the ing the 2015 accord, which aims to limit
Consumer sentiment declines as retail sales bounce back Change in home prices since start of Trump’s term
aftermath of the financial crisis. Unem- global warming to well below 2C.
ployment hit record lows during Mr Survey of consumer sentiment Retail and food sales ($bn) S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (%) The US exit, the culmination of a
Trump’s term, but the economy came bureaucratic process that began a year
Covid-19 pandemic 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
crashing down in March, and a full ago, will be completed automatically
110 550
Seattle
recovery could still be years away. and is not dependent on the result of
These charts show how the US econ- Las Vegas Tuesday’s presidential election. But if
omy performed under Mr Trump, and Phoenix Democratic challenger Joe Biden
100
identify some of the winners and losers Denver becomes president, the US could rejoin
500
during his presidency.
San Diego
‘If Biden wins, the fact that
Red states did the best on jobs 90 Boston
the withdrawal became
The last data on employment before the Los Angeles
election showed the US economy with 450 San Francisco final on November 4
141.7m jobs in September — not a 80
Dallas
really won’t matter’
number that left Mr Trump much room
Miami
for celebration. It represented a 6.4 per
New York
cent drop compared with 12 months 70 400 the Paris accord quickly. He has said he
earlier, and was 2.7 per cent below the Chicago would do so on his first day in office.
2017 18 19 20
level when he took office. “If Biden wins, then the fact that the
The decline happened almost entirely Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; University of Michigan; US Census Bureau; US Federal Reserve withdrawal became final on November
during the pandemic and ensuing lock- 4 really won’t matter,” said Todd Stern,
downs, and left the US with 10.7m fewer Manufacturing jobs growth picked who was the top US climate negotiator
Consumers were a bright spot
jobs than in February. up initially but Trump’s trade wars during the Obama administration.
Not all regions suffered to the same backfired on industrial America and Consumer spending has been one of the The US is the only country that has
degree. According to a Financial Times employment suffered. US bank strongest features of the US economy formally left the Paris accord, although
analysis of the data, Idaho was the best- stocks fell yesterday under Mr Trump — and has helped pro- several other nations, including Brazil,
performing state in terms of jobs during Adam Glanzman/Bloomberg/AFP/Getty mote the recovery from the shock of the have talked about quitting. Signatories
Mr Trump’s presidency, while Hawaii pandemic. include China, which announced in Sep-
was the worst. But not all is rosy. While retail sales tember that it would try to become car-
The five states that did the best as of suggest a “V-shaped” recovery, con- bon neutral by 2060. Japan and South
September 2020 were generally sympa- sumer sentiment has been depressed Korea have also announced net zero tar-
thetic to Mr Trump politically, having for months, according to the University gets in recent weeks.
backed him by an average margin of of Michigan survey. There are good rea- Mr Biden has promised a $2tn climate
12.6 percentage points in 2016, and were sons for caution: coronavirus is still stimulus package and said he would
mostly out west. The five states that per- surging in many areas and fiscal stimu- introduce a target of net zero emissions
formed the worst in terms of jobs — facturing employment also suffered dis- ing because of schools being closed. lus — which helped to drive spending by for the US by 2050. He will also aim to
including New York — leaned Demo- proportionately. Even after restrictions eased, men struggling households earlier this year make electricity generation emission-
cratic, except Alaska. On average, they Over Mr Trump’s presidency, leisure returned to the labour force more fre- — has been fading, with no deal in sight free by 2035, which would close coal and
supported Hillary Clinton by 13.2 per- and hospitality — his own business — did quently than women. between Mr Trump and congressional gas-fired power stations.
centage points in 2016. the worst, largely because of the pan- Democrats. Mr Trump has focused on loosening
Property prices rose most in
demic. The best employment performer environmental regulations, including
Blue-collar boom sputtered western cities Canada and Mexico remained top
was the financial sector — not a look the watering down vehicle emissions stand-
markets
Mr Trump came into office in January president wanted. The last US recession was triggered by ards set by the Obama administration.
2017 with a vow to reshape the economy mortgage defaults that came crashing For all the bluster of Donald Trump’s “If Trump wins, it is likely that not
Pandemic forced women
to favour blue-collar workers who had down on Wall Street, but this year’s cri- trade rhetoric, the structure of US trade much will change regarding their stance
from workforce
been displaced by trade, immigration, sis reinforced a housing boom as Ameri- has been little changed since he entered on climate right away,” said Sarah Ladis-
globalisation and automation. Female participation in the labour cans sought roomier homes for remote the White House. Canada solidified its law, director of the climate change pro-
For a while it seemed to be work- force, either as jobholders or jobseek- work. position as the main market for US gramme at the Center for International
ing: mining and logging jobs ers, had been stagnant for a few years From the first month of his presi- exports and Mexico remained the sec- and Strategic Studies. “It is quite likely
rebounded strongly with Mr before Mr Trump came into office, and dency to the most recent observation in ond most important destination — other countries with ambitious emis-
Trump’s election after suffering big under his watch it began to creep up — August, home prices in big cities though the pandemic hit sales south of sions reduction targets . . . will try to
declines at the end of Mr Obama’s from 56.9 per cent in January 2017 to increased, but some much more the border more than sales north of it. influence US behaviour through cross-
presidency. Manufacturing jobs 57.8 per cent in February of this year. than others — with the greatest benefits In the midst of the trade war with border carbon tariffs and a push to
growth also picked up. This represented stronger growth than going to properties to the west of the China, there was a clear dip in exports. influence the global financial system to
But even before the pandemic hit, the change from 69.2 per cent to 69.3 per Rockies. But after Washington and Beijing signed incorporate climate considerations.”
those gains started to erode as Mr cent experienced by men over the same Seattle had valuations that were 33.5 a “phase 1” trade deal in January, which Contentious issues for the next round
Trump’s trade wars backfired on period. per cent higher than January 2017. Las included large-scale purchases of US of climate talks in Scotland next year
industrial America. Mining and log- But when coronavirus hit, it was Vegas and Phoenix also had prices rise goods by Chinese entities, there has include creating global carbon markets
ging jobs went from having the most women who disproportionately left more than 30 per cent over the same been a rebound. China now imports — which a Biden administration would
rapid employment gain to being work or abandoned the search for jobs period. In New York, the gains were more from the US than it did when Mr support — and increasing climate dona-
among the worst performers. Manu- to care for children using remote learn- more limited. Trump took office. tions from rich countries to poor.
Federal spending
Results dash business hopes for stimulus package progress
FRIDAY31MARCH2017 WORLDBUSINESSNEWSPAPER UK£2.70ChannelIslands£3.00;RepublicofIreland€3.00
TrumpvstheValley AFiveStarplan? DearDon...
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Mr Biden had laid out a plan to rapidly from veering too far to the left, lobbyists yesterday, which experts said was
inject billions of dollars of short-term and business leaders are expected to signalled industry’s desire for a policy because bank shares tend to move
Morning briefing. Midday analysis. Mobile updates. Subscribe to stimulus into the economy and raise keep pressing for compromise on stimu- agenda that veered to neither party’s inversely to the price of US government
the FT and you’re better informed all day. taxes on the wealthy and large compa- lus. The US Chamber of Commerce said extreme. “Voters have proven that our debt, not because banks faced a tougher
nies to fund further investments in pub- on Monday it would put “maximum country is deep purple — not red, not policy or regulatory outlook.
With newspaper delivery, you start the day prepared.* With FT.com, lic goods, from education to green pressure on our leaders to pass an aid blue,” he tweeted yesterday. “There’s actually something kind of
you’re on top of the news throughout the day. And with mobile energy and infrastructure. package as quickly as possible”. The chamber, other industry lobbies nice about this election,” said Jeff Harte,
and tablet access, you’re up to speed wherever you are. While Mr Biden may capture the pres- Tom Donohue, the chamber’s chief and individual CEOs have also called for an analyst at Piper Sandler. “Neither
idency if he maintains his small lead in executive, said Washington’s largest patience until all votes are counted, candidate is really targeting banks or
key swing states, he could be severely corporate lobby group had “worked making clear that Mr Trump would find the economy. Neither one seems like a
impaired in passing his economic hard to maintain a pro-business Senate” little support from business should he horrible outcome. Either side is going to
Visit FT.com/subscribenow agenda by Republicans who are on track and was “very well positioned to break attempt to resist any widely accepted be focused on the economy.”
to keep their Senate majority and have through the gridlock” to make progress conclusion that he had lost. Glenn Schorr, an analyst at Evercore
been very sceptical of additional spend- on issues from healthcare to economic Polls have shown that concern about ISI, added that brokerages like Morgan
*Terms and conditions can be found at www.ft.com/subscribenow ing. revitalisation. potential unrest should election results Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which have
“Without control of the Senate, the Business leaders have also expressed be contested has outweighed the fears enjoyed a six-month trading boom,
Democrats’ ambitious legislative frustration with the failure of both the many industry leaders have of higher would benefit from continued volatility.
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:World Time: 4/11/2020 - 19:01 User: sanjay.gohil Page Name: WORLD4 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 6, 1
Thursday 5 November 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 7
INTERNATIONAL
East Africa
Ethiopian action to stem revolt raises civil war fears
Deployment ordered after The prime minister’s office said the reforms, including privatisation of the identity, opponents say, threatens the
Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front had telecoms monopoly, to take the econ- autonomy of the ethnic-based states in
attack on federal army
attacked the base in Tigray and omy towards middle-income status. the federal system and has sparked vio-
base in restive Tigray “attempted to rob the northern com- With phone lines and the internet cut in lence. To the Tigrayan leadership and
mand of artillery and military equip- Tigray, according to NetBlocks, which many from other ethnic groups, includ-
ment”. The TPLF, the political party tracks online disruption, TPLF officials ing Mr Abiy’s own Oromo, the national
Andres Schipani — Nairobi
that controls the region and lost much of could not be reached for comment. But unity push undermines a federal system
David Pilling — London
its power nationally after Mr Abiy Debretsion Gebremichael, Tigray’s guaranteeing significant autonomy for
Fighting has begun in Ethiopia’s north- became prime minister in 2018, viewed regional president, was quoted on Tues- ethnically defined territories.
ern region of Tigray after prime minis- the Ethiopian army as an occupying day as saying: “We have prepared our
ter Abiy Ahmed sent federal troops to force, the statement said, adding: “The military of special force not in need of a ‘We have prepared our
quell a rebellion in a move that threat- TPLF has chosen to wage war.” war, but if the worst comes, to defend
military . . . not in need
ens to bring Africa’s second most popu- The Tigray conflict is the most serious ourselves.” The Federal Council of Min-
lous country to the brink of civil war. to have flared since Mr Abiy took office isters in Addis Ababa declared a six- of a war, but if the worst
According to the prime minister’s in the country of 110m people in 10 eth- month state of emergency in Tigray.
comes, to defend ourselves’
office military operations began in Tig- nically based autonomous regions. Tigray’s well-organised military has
ray yesterday. A western diplomat in Mr Abiy’s appointment had been its roots in the rebel army that over-
Addis Ababa said “people have been meant to resolve tensions between the threw a Marxist regime in 1991 and The government of Oromia accused
killed” and the death toll “uncertain”. then TPLF-dominated government and brought the Tigrayans to the centre of the TPLF of supporting the Oromo Lib-
Mr Abiy took to social media to say a those of the Oromo and Amhara regions power for 27 years. eration Front-Shane, a militia that it
“red line” had been crossed and accuse that felt excluded from power. Instead, A western diplomat in Addis Ababa says was involved in the killing of at
Tigrayan regional forces of attacking a it has triggered a wave of ethno-nation- called the federal deployment a “civil least 54 people on Sunday. On Tuesday,
federal army base and of “arming and alist sentiment as groups suppressed by war” that risked the reforms that Mr members of Ethiopia’s House of People’s
organising irregular militias”. the previous authoritarian regime Abiy, who last year won the Nobel Peace Representatives said the TPLF should
Mr Abiy, whose government has been assert their rights. Prize for his role in ending a 20-year be labelled a terrorist group.
struggling to control ethnic-nationalist The tensions threaten one of Africa’s conflict with Eritrea, had championed. After Mr Abiy came to power, the
violence, said his patience had run out most promising economic experiments. The US embassy called for an “imme- TPLF refused to merge into his unitary
with the northern region, which held Under a state-led development model, diate de-escalation of the current situa- Prosperity party, which replaced the
elections in September in defiance of a the economy grew at close to 10 per cent tion in Tigray and a measured response Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Dem-
national postponement attributed to for much of the past two decades. Mr by both sides”. ocratic Front, a four-party coalition that
the Covid-19 pandemic. Abiy had promised sweeping liberal Members of Tigray’s security forces on parade in Mekelle Mr Abiy’s push for a pan-Ethiopian had run the country for three decades.
— Michael Tewelde/AFP/Getty
Coronavirus
Denmark to cull up to 17m
mink blamed for mutation
Richard Milne, tion along with much of her government
Nordic and Baltic Correspondent after Denmark’s justice minister tested
Denmark said it would cull its entire positive for the virus, said the decision
population of up to 17m mink over had been taken with a “heavy heart” as
fears that a coronavirus mutation in she apologised to mink farmers for
the animals that are farmed for their destroying their “life’s work”.
valuable fur could threaten the effec- Denmark’s agriculture minister said
tiveness of any future vaccine. the cull amounted to the de facto clo-
sure of the country’s mink industry for
Danish authorities said a variant “a number of years”.
detected in a dozen people who had Magnus Heunicke, health minister,
recently caught the infection from mink said the mutations had been found at
in the north of the country was so wor- five mink farms.
rying that it raised questions of how well The people who had the new form of
any potential inoculation would work the virus were not severely ill but they
across the world. do not respond positively to antibodies,
“Due to the discovery of a mutated he said.
infection in mink, which weakens the “Studies have shown that the muta-
ability to form antibodies, resolute tions could affect the current candidates
action is needed. It is necessary to kill all for a Covid-19 vaccine,” he added.
mink,” Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Kaare Molbak, Denmark’s top epide-
prime minister, said yesterday. miologist, warned that in the “worst-
“The mutated virus carries the risk case scenario, the pandemic will restart,
that a future vaccine will not work as it this time in Denmark”.
should.” Denmark, like most European coun-
Denmark is the world’s largest pro- tries, has imposed extra restrictions in
ducer of minks skins. Annual produc- recent weeks as its virus infections hit a
tion of about 19m skins accounts for new record, due in large part to more
€1.1bn in Danish exports, with China extensive testing than in the spring.
being the largest market. Additional measures will be introduced
The Scandinavian country has in North Jutland due to the mutated
already culled more than 1m mink due virus, the prime minister said.
to virus worries but the latest action is a Tage Pedersen, chairman of the asso-
dramatic escalation in a country known ciation of Danish mink breeders, said:
for its animal products, including its “We must of course not be the cause of a
pork. Danish police said the cull of 15m- new pandemic . . . But the govern-
17m animals would take several days. ment’s decision is a catastrophe for the
Ms Frederiksen, who is in self-isola- industry and for Denmark.”
Middle East
Saudi Arabia pledges more
rights for foreign workers
Simeon Kerr — Dubai Saudi Arabia’s planned reforms come
as Gulf states seek to overhaul its labour
Saudi Arabia is to allow 10m expatriate
markets to better suit the knowledge-
workers to change jobs and leave the
based, open economy envisioned by the
country without their employers’ per-
ambitious crown prince, Mohammed
mission, as it seeks to modernise its
bin Salman. The ministry said the
controversial kafala system, diversify
reforms would increase competition in
the oil-reliant economy and create
the labour market, which would in turn
more jobs for Saudi nationals.
boost wages and public spending.
Since the kingdom discovered oil in the The reforms could also create more
1930s, it has been reliant on foreign jobs for Saudi nationals, particularly the
labour, from western engineers who kingdom’s growing population of young
helped found the hydrocarbons indus- people. Unemployment in the kingdom
try to millions of low-income labourers is rising — up from 11.4 per cent in the
manning the construction boom trig- first quarter to 15.4 per cent in the sec-
gered by those oil riches. ond quarter — as the economy reels
But to date, overseas workers have from the impact of the coronavirus pan-
been tied to their sponsor, who is demic and lower oil prices.
responsible for their legal status in a sys- “If this turns out to be a serious
tem known regionally as kafala. Rights reform, it could also play into the Saudi-
groups have criticised this system as sation agenda — part of the appeal for
akin to indentured labour and say it companies in hiring migrants has been
leaves workers vulnerable to abuse. the ease of controlling them through the
From March 2021, foreigners, who abusive kafala system,” said James
make up a third of the population, will Lynch, a director of FairSquare, a Lon-
be able to move jobs and secure exit don-based human rights organisation.
visas electronically without the prior “But there is not much overlap between
approval of their employers, the Minis- the jobs migrants do and the work Sau-
try of Human Resources and Social dis are qualified and want to do.”
Development announced yesterday. He added: “This announcement
“This set of reforms will safeguard the focuses in on some of the most problem-
rights of both employees and employers atic elements of kafala — the fact that
in the private sector,” said Sattam workers can’t leave the country or
Alharbi, a deputy minister. “They will change jobs without their employers’
abolish the mobility differences permission.”
between Saudis and non-Saudis — But it was not clear how workers
meaning employers will hire based on would change jobs and why exit visas
capabilities and qualifications.” would still be required, he said.
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:World Time: 4/11/2020 - 17:56 User: sanjay.gohil Page Name: WORLD5 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 7, 1
8 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 5 November 2020
y
Mohamed El-Erian The election makes clear three things that spell trouble for the US economy
MARKETS INSIGHT
Beijing shelved
Biogen leaps
Gig green light Uber and Lyft buoyant after
on prospect of
ballot win on treating drivers as contractors
$37bn Ant IPO
Alzheimer’s
drug approval
to ‘maintain
Hannah Kuchler — New York
Biogen moved a significant step closer
stable markets’ to winning approval for what would be
the first new Alzheimer’s drug in the US
for decades after the country’s regula-
tor said there was “substantial evi-
dence” it was effective, adding $15bn to
the company’s market value.
3 Effort to ‘protect investors’ interests’ The Food and Drug Administration yes-
terday published a positive clinical
3 Regulators focus on micro-lending review on the application for aducanu-
mab, a potential treatment for the neu-
rological disease that affects 5.7m peo-
ple in the US alone.
FT reporters as securities and sold on, with only 2 per The FDA reviewers addressed con-
cent falling on to Ant’s balance sheet. cerns that there was not enough evi-
Beijing said it had suspended the $37bn The draft rule calls on Ant to provide dence that the drug worked, after one of
listing of Ant Group, controlled by at least 30 per cent of the funding for Biogen’s two clinical trials failed. They
China’s richest man, Jack Ma, to protect loans and to cap loans at Rmb300,000 said the failed trial did not “meaning-
its capital markets as investors reeled ($44,843) or a third of a borrower’s fully detract” from the results of the suc-
from the eleventh-hour decision. annual salary, whichever is lower. cessful one, which it called “robust and
The order to stop Ant from launching Mr Ma, Ant’s founder, has been lobby- exceptionally persuasive”.
a record IPO in Hong Kong and Shang- ing regulators against the proposals, Biogen shares leapt 40 per cent to a
hai, two days before trading was due to according to two people familiar with two-year high, pushing the company’s
start, is likely to have come from the the situation, culminating in a speech in market capitalisation to $53bn from
very top, potentially from Pres­ident Xi Shanghai at the end of October when he $38bn at Tuesday’s close.
Jinping himself, acc­o­r­ding to two people suggested that China’s banks had a The company has argued that clinical
familiar with the ­situation. “pawnshop mentality” and Ant was an data shows aducanumab slows loss of
Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign minis- essential part of the credit system. memory, language and executive func-
try spokesman, said yesterday that offi- An Ant Group spokesperson denied tions in Alzheimer’s patients. The drug
cials had halted the IPO to “better main- that Mr Ma had lobbied regulators on targets clumps of protein called beta
tain the stability of the capital markets the matter: “The claim is baseless and is amyloid that can build up in the brain.
and to protect investors’ interests”. pure fabrication. Ant Group has made “The applicant has provided substan-
full disclosure of the material risks of tial evidence of effectiveness to support
‘You don’t want retail our business in the prospectus.” approval,” the regulator’s reviewers
An executive at one of China’s Big A protest at City Hall in Los Angeles — but a majority of California voters backed Prop 22 wrote in their 343-page report.
investors to lose half — Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images
Four state banks said that while Ant had The document is not a final decision,
their fortunes. Ma can a low level of defaults, the government Dave Lee — San Francisco strong polling. Uber’s shares are at get what so many of you have been but it suggests how the agency will view
was concerned that the figure “could their highest level since August 2019. asking for: access to benefits and pro- the company’s submission.
afford to but they can’t’ Uber and Lyft shares soared after
take off in the event of a sharp economic Ahead of the vote, Uber warned it tections, while maintaining the flexi- Biogen originally halted both trials of
California voted overwhelmingly to
slowdown. That creates social risks the would have had to greatly reduce the bility and independence you want the drug in March 2019, saying an analy-
allow gig economy companies to
Ant’s IPO had created a frenzy in both government is keen to avoid.” Mr Ma’s number of drivers on its platform and and deserve,” Uber chief executive sis by an independent committee found
keep treating their workers as inde-
Hong Kong and Shanghai among insti- open challenge to the regulator in increase prices, particularly in less Dara Khosrowshahi wrote in a mes- it was not going to be effective. But in
pendent contractors.
tutional and smaller investors. Bankers Shanghai had been “unacceptable” and populated areas, if the proposition sage to the state’s drivers. October last year, it reversed course,
working on the IPO in Shanghai said prompted it to act. “The logic for Beijing Gig economy companies collectively was defeated. Mr Khosrowshahi retweeted a claiming that a larger data set showed
last week that retail bids had exceeded is, ‘If I don’t understand and can’t con- funded much of a $200m campaign Under Prop 22, the companies will tweet by tech investor Jason Calacanis the drug did work at a higher dose.
the value of the shares on offer by trol you, I won’t let you grow’.” for Proposition 22, a state ballot meas- instead offer limited healthcare in which he referred to Lorena The FDA said yesterday that the
more than 870 times, equivalent to Rebecca Chua, founder of Premia ure to exempt them from what they options, with drivers remaining as González, a state assemblywoman agency and Biogen had “jointly con-
Rmb19.1tn ($2.8tn). Partners, said it was “better for the regu- said would be an existential threat to independent contractors. Workers who had opposed Prop 22, as a cluded” that terminating the pro-
Behind the scenes, Chinese regulators lators to put constraints” on Ant now their business models. will have a minimum earnings guar- “grifter”. Mr Khosrowshahi deleted gramme early did not stop it from being
have been steadily tightening control of rather than expose traders to heavier By yesterday morning, with 99 per antee of at least 120 per cent of the his retweet shortly afterwards. able to interpret the data.
the country’s booming micro-lending losses later. “You don’t want retail inves- cent of the vote counted, 58 per cent state’s hourly minimum wage, Labour organisations that had Some experts have been concerned
sector, and have Ant in their crosshairs. tors to lose half their fortunes. Jack Ma were in favour of the proposition. although the time during which driv- opposed Prop 22 reiterated their view that the drug may not be effective, how-
Draft regulations published on Mon- can afford to but they can’t.” As a result, Uber and other app- ers are waiting to be matched with a that Uber, Lyft and others were ever. David Knopman, a Mayo Clinic
day, shortly before the IPO was halted, Reporting by Henny Sender, Hudson based gig economy groups will not rider will not be counted. exploiting workers. “Gig workers did neurologist who worked on one of the
will hurt Ant’s lending business, which Lockett, Primrose Riordan and Nicolle Liu have to treat workers as employees, According to Morgan Stanley, not lose today, democracy did,” a trials, called for a third trial focused on
was responsible for nearly 40 per cent of in Hong Kong; Ryan McMorrow, Sun Yu with associated health benefits, holi- implementing such measures will spokesman for campaign group Gig the higher dose, in a medical journal this
its sales in the six months to June. and Yuan Yang in Beijing; Tom Mitchell in day pay and other benefits. increase Uber’s costs 1 per cent, com- Workers Rising said. “When corpora- week.
Ant’s credit business issues a tenth of Singapore; Xueqiao Wang in Shanghai; and Uber shares shot up 15 per cent and pared with 5 per cent had it lost the tions spend hundreds of millions of Umer Raffat, an analyst at Evercore,
China’s non-mortgage consumer loans Qianer Liu in Shenzhen Lyft shares by 13 per cent in morning vote. The company reports its third- dollars to write their own labour said he did not think the data was “high
but the vast majority of these are made Editorial Comment page 18 trading yesterday, having already quarter earnings today. laws . . . that is a loss for our system of quality” but he still believed the drug
through its partner banks or packaged John Thornhill page 19 been boosted on election day by “Drivers and delivery people will government and working people.” was likely to be approved.
Ethical investment is about morals not markets
tion. But Carlyle isn’t the only one running ethical portfolios. The ESG
INSIDE BUSINESS
applying questionable definitions when industry counters that it is possible “to
it comes to ethical investment. Let’s do well and do good” both at the same
FINANCE
take another example: the mushroom- time. But there is no reason that doing
ing green bond market, which reached good should deliver superior returns.
Jonathan €660bn this year and is estimated to If anything, it should be the opposite.
reach €2tn by 2023, according to Remember that impact investors
Ford research by NN Investment Partners. should be funding something that does
Among the bond issues that left inves- not seem sufficiently lucrative ex-ante
tors with doubts about their green pur- to be backed by conventional financiers.
pose is one by Saudi Arabia’s fossil fuel- Logically, then, you would expect
guzzling electricity monopoly to raise them to receive “concessional” — or
H ere is a story that shows money to install smart meters. Another lower than market — returns.
how very fuzzy the bound- is the trend for carmakers issuing green Accept that premise and it points to a
aries can get when you bonds to fund development of electric very different way of looking at impact
attempt to define what is a vehicles. As fund manager Tom Chin- investing. As the Oxford academic
“green” or “socially nery of Aviva Investors puts it: “That’s Ludovic Phalippou points out, it should
responsible” investment. It involves a business as usual. Every car company not be viewed as a route to superior
large US private equity firm and, yes, an on the planet should be doing this.” financial performance but rather the
oil company based in Texas. The explosion of ESG finance has led fulfilment of a moral imperative.
Hydrocarbon producer Clearly Petro- to predictable cries of “greenwashing” After all, why does everyone want
leum has operations in the state along- and the need for decarbonisation, fair wages or encour-
side the Brazos river where, thanks to tighter rules Why does everyone want agement of diversity on boards? Not
more extreme weather events in recent around what can because they raise returns but because
decarbonisation, fair
years, the watercourse has become be termed an ethi- they are the right thing to do.
increasingly prone to heavy flooding. cal investment. wages or encouragement Stocks with high ESG ratings may
So the company’s owner, the buyout An alphabet have performed well during the pan-
of diversity on boards? Not
firm Carlyle, supported it in building soup of standard- demic, not least because tech groups
flood barriers around its storage tanks setting bodies has because they raise returns make up much of the indices. But what
and elevating electrical equipment, pro- called for better would happen if they underperformed
tecting the works from inundation. disclosure and reporting to help the at some point? Mr Phalippou asks:
Pretty sensible, you might think. At market work by separating the virtuous Would “destroying the environment
least if the plan is to pump oil. It doesn’t from the sinful. and mistreating people become the
obviously do much for the planet. Yet But it’s worth asking if the problem right thing to do?”
despite the fossil fuel bit and lack of any lies rather deeper and how effective The confusion surrounding ethical
obvious carbon abatement, Carlyle market mechanisms really are at deliv- investment is unlikely to be solved by
claims that this is a green investment. ering these goals. more auditors and standards.
The firm says that achieving impact “Impact” investment only has real Such steps will just drown investors in
“isn’t just about putting money into meaning if it means funding activities paper while not getting the world much
companies with strong records on envi- that would not otherwise happen. Oth- further along the desired ethical path.
ronmental, social and governance fac- erwise, where’s the impact? You are sim- There is a only one way to achieve
tors. It’s also about making sure portfo- ply dressing up “business as usual” moral imperatives such as decarbonisa-
lio companies are in a good position to investments that would be made any- tion and diversity — establish laws and
deal with the effects of climate change way. That does not so much help the rules that deliver the outcomes you wish
that are happening right now”. planet as provide a decent income to the to achieve.
You might argue if that’s “green”, rubber-stamp merchants and those
almost anything could fit the descrip- investment firms charging high fees for [email protected]
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:Companies Time: 4/11/2020 - 19:02 User: andy.puttnam Page Name: COMP&MKTS1, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 8, 1
Thursday 5 November 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 9
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:Ad Page Time: 4/11/2020 - 10:08 User: john.lee Page Name: AD MITCH, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 9, 1
10 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 5 November 2020
COMPANIES & MARKETS
Telecoms Automobiles
CK Hutchison nears €10bn towers sale BMW profits
jump 10% after
China rebound
Spain’s Cellnex in talks to “actively exploring options” for the former having attracted much higher fone, are considering floating stakes in ing and bonus payments, rose 68 per spurs record
business. valuations. their infrastructure arms to crystallise cent, boosted by recent acquisitions.
buy Three owner’s masts
Barcelona-based Cellnex was consid- The plunge in share prices across the value without losing control of the asset. However, pre-tax losses in the period deliveries
in six European countries ered to be a likely candidate to acquire sector, combined with high levels of The sale of Three’s towers has been widened to €228m compared with
the masts, or a stake in the now separate debt and the need to invest in 5G seen as a potential spur for further con- losses of €166m a year earlier.
and renamed CK Hutchison Networks, upgrades, has pushed some networks to solidation in the telecoms sector. The Spanish company has spent €7bn
Nic Fildes
after it raised €4bn via the issue of new sell their towers to specialists such as CK Hutchison’s failed attempt to buy on deals this year, having bought towers
CK Hutchison is closing in on a sale of its shares in July to pursue takeover oppor- Cellnex or infrastructure investors such O2 in 2016 was complicated by its joint in Portugal, Poland and the UK, funded Joe Miller — Frankfurt
large portfolio of mobile towers in tunities. as KKR. ownership of the MBNL tower joint ven- by debt and equity.
BMW’s third-quarter profits grew
Europe to Cellnex, the acquisitive CK Hutchison said yesterday that it Other companies, including Voda- ture in the UK alongside BT. It now owns 61,000 sites and has a
almost 10 per cent as pent-up demand,
Spanish telecoms infrastructure com- was in talks with Cellnex over a disposal Cellnex shares rose more than 5 per market capitalisation of almost €28bn,
primarily in Asia, helped the German
pany, which would net the owner of the that would depend on service agree- The disposal of Three’s cent after talks over a potential deal nearly double that of Spanish incum-
brand post the best sales figures in its
Three mobile brand €10bn if a deal is ments being struck with the Spanish were confirmed and it reported strong bent telecoms company Telefónica.
assets has been seen as a history.
agreed. company to accelerate the rollout of 5G results for the first nine months of the Giles Thorne, an analyst with Jeffer-
The Hong Kong-based group carved networks. potential spur for further year. Revenue grew 53 per cent to ies, said the results helped justify the Sales in China, BMW’s largest and most
out the assets, which comprise 29,100 CK Hutchison is the latest company to €1.1bn while earnings before interest, performance of the company’s stock. profitable market, surged more than 31
consolidation in the sector
sites across six European countries, in separate out its masts from its core tele- tax, depreciation and amortisation, as “Once again, Cellnex does much to jus- per cent in the quarter to the end of Sep-
August and said at the time that it was coms operating business with the well as one-off costs such as restructur- tify its year-to-date share gains.” tember compared with the same period
in 2019.
The luxury group’s European sales
also increased 7 per cent from a year
Energy. Green spending earlier, contributing to a record of more
than 675,000 sales in total worldwide.
The rebound in demand helped BMW
US oil shares climb as renewables sector slides
report a pre-tax profit of €2.5bn for the
period, up from €2.25bn in the same
quarter last year.
Two weeks ago, BMW revealed it had
more than €3bn in free cash flow in the
third quarter of the year, comfortably
Democrats’ probable failure beating market expectations.
However, the manufacturer warned
to gain control of Congress
yesterday that its automotive business,
puts $2tn proposals at risk which includes the Mini and Rolls-
Royce brands, could still make no profit
for the whole of 2020, saying it “contin-
Derek Brower — US energy editor ues to assume that demand in all key
US oil and gas stocks rose while those of markets will be significantly reduced in
renewable energy producers fell yester- light of the coronavirus pandemic”.
day, as traders gambled that even if Joe Nicolas Peter, BMW’s chief financial
Biden wins the White House, Demo- officer, cautioned that “the business
crats’ probable failure to gain control of
Congress would kill plans for a clean- ‘The situation in Europe is
energy revolution.
worsening. We have never
Mr Biden has proposed $2tn of spend-
ing in the next four years to decarbonise recorded swings like this
US electricity by 2035 along the way to
within such a short period’
hitting net-zero carbon emissions by
2050, with plans to expand clean power
generation and build a network of environment has remained extremely
charging stations for battery-powered volatile”, emphasising that the company
cars. experienced its worst-ever drop in sales
But the proposals hang in the balance in the previous quarter.
following Tuesday’s election, which “Now the situation in Europe is wors-
look set to deny his Democratic Party ening again,” he added. “We have never
the Senate majority needed to push the recorded swings like this within such a
programme through, especially follow- short period of time.”
ing the Supreme Court’s tilt to the right. Global sales are still 12.5 per cent
“If Biden prevails but Republicans lower for the first nine months of 2020
keep the Senate, they will prevent much compared with the same period in 2019.
of the $2tn in green spending Democrats The Munich-based group also
favour,” said Bob McNally, head of con- announced that all four of its German
sultancy Rapidan Energy Group and a plants would be producing battery-pow-
former adviser to George W Bush. ered vehicles “in the foreseeable
“Court-packing, adding states, and future”, as it pushes ahead with plans to
large tax hikes on oil and gas companies Joe Biden plans yesterday — and Donald Trump’s efforts Mr Biden’s comments during one of the ‘The shift is a more realistic timeline absent a blue put close to 5m pure electric cars on the
go out the window.” to decarbonise to boost fossil fuels through deregula- pre-election debates that he would wave,” said Dan Eberhart, head of oil- road over the next decade.
going to be
The market seemed to agree that US electricity by tion and scrapping rules to control pol- “phase out” the oil industry. field services company Canary and a By the end of next year, BMW, which
Tuesday’s vote — and the lack of a “blue 2035 on the way lution. “Will you remember that, Texas?” Mr on a more vocal Trump supporter. was an electric car pioneer with its i3
wave” handing the Democrats control of to hitting net- This year’s coronavirus-induced oil Trump said in the debate. “Will you “The truth is that Republicans are model, said it would have a total of five
realistic
Congress — would help fossil fuel pro- zero emissions price collapse has scarred the US oil and remember that, Pennsylvania, Okla- supportive of policies to reduce carbon electric cars on the market, adding
ducers more than their clean energy by 2050 gas industry, where tens of thousands of homa?” timeline emissions. But they just think it needs to the iX3, iNEXT and i4 to its line-up,
— Joe Raedle/
counterparts. Getty Images jobs have been lost, bankruptcies con- The oil industry also claimed Mr be done through increased competition alongside the i3 and Mini Cooper.
absent a
Shares in ExxonMobil, which only last tinue to mount and production has Biden’s proposals would curb drilling on and market-oriented policies.” While BMW has ploughed more than
week reported its third consecutive fallen about 20 per cent. federal lands in states such as New Mex- blue wave’ Lobbyists in Washington said the €4bn into research and development
quarterly loss, rose yesterday along with The sector’s troubles made energy — ico, home to part of the Permian Basin, need to win cross-party support for a cli- this year, largely into electric and hybrid
those of rival Chevron and the S&P 500 and its future in an economic recovery the world’s most prolific oilfield. mate plan would dominate Mr Biden’s driving technology, the company is
Energy index that mainly consists of oil — a theme in the election battle. In an interview with the Financial strategising around new energy legisla- slashing costs, with at least 6,000 jobs
and gas companies. Mr Biden said his clean-energy deal Times last month, Scott Sheffield, head tion. set to be cut across the group.
By contrast NextEra, a power pro- would create jobs in everything from of shale driller Pioneer Natural “This opens the door to addressing cli- BMW’s results come after domestic
ducer with a growing clean-energy port- solar panel installations to cleaning up Resources, said US oil production would mate change in a way that is not only rival Daimler reported that its net prof-
folio whose market valuation recently abandoned oil and gas wells. fall 3 per cent a year if Mr Biden won the comprehensive but bipartisan,” said its increased nearly a fifth in the third
overtook Exxon’s, were down — as were Mr Trump tried to depict his rival as a White House. Frank Maisano, a consultant at quarter to almost €2.2bn, thanks to a
those in other clean-energy producers. green radical who would ban fracking, But a modest victory for Mr Biden Bracewell, which represents energy cli- strong rebound in sales of its Mercedes-
Denmark’s Vestas, a big supplier of wind the drilling technique that enabled the without a Senate majority would — if ents in Washington. Benz cars in China.
turbines to the US, also fell. shale revolution, at the cost of thou- confirmed — force him to pursue a more “A $2tn climate plan will have to take Volkswagen, which owns premium
The election offered voters a stark sands of jobs in swing states such as moderate energy agenda, even allowing the shape of a $2tn jobs plan with some brands Audi and Porsche, also returned
choice between Mr Biden’s climate- Pennsylvania and Ohio. Mr Biden has for compromise, said some oil and gas climate thrown in.” to profit in the three months to the end
focused plan — including his pledge insisted fracking will not be “on the industry figures. Additional reporting by Leslie Hook and of September, after posting a loss of
to rejoin the Paris climate accord chopping block” if he wins. “The shift toward lower-carbon Myles McCormick €1.4bn for the first six months of the
from which the US officially withdrew The president’s campaign seized on energy is not over, but it’s going to be on See Lex year.
Industrial goods. Distribution snags
Surge in demand for outdoor heaters raises pressure on supply chain
China manufacturers bolster taurants having to shut for much of the bulk of heaters from Asia’s largest six to eight weeks could now only do so outdoor spaces, households have been The heaters come in two broad types:
November as part of a second lockdown, economy to breaking point. by February or March. As a result, the preparing for months of winter socialis- those powered by gas that are less envi-
capacity as restaurants, pubs executives in the UK hospitality indus- “The entire supply chain has broken company resorted to paying for 1,000 ing in their gardens. ronmentally friendly and dominate the
try say outdoor heated space will be down,” said Mr Arnold of AEI. units to be flown in last weekend, even Elizabeth Terry, a retired doctor from US market, and electric infrared ones.
and households snap up units
vital to their fortunes once they are Steve Levy, managing director of Heat though rates for air freight have trebled. Wiltshire who is vulnerable to infection Concern over their effect on the envi-
allowed to reopen. Outdoors, a Hertfordshire-based dis- While England’s new lockdown only due to cancer treatment, said she had ronment had prompted France to out-
Phil Urban, chief executive of Mitch- tributor, said Chinese manufacturers permits people to meet one other per- not entertained inside at all due to Cov- law both types this winter, but the ban
Harry Dempsey and Alice Hancock
ells & Butlers, one of the UK’s largest bar that typically deliver gas heaters within son from another household in public id-19 and had spent £300 on her third has been pushed back until the spring
London
chains, said the group would press electric outdoor heater last month. because of the pandemic.
After transforming the fortunes of hand ahead with a £1.5m investment in “It’s been a life saver for us. We’ve sat It is one reason why some are refusing
sanitiser and soap producers, the pan- heated and covered outside spaces. outside with friends of ours at 7 degrees to join the rush.
demic looks set to do the same for “The view is as soon as we do open we outside,” she said. “They are expensive to run, they don’t
another previously unheralded indus- will need those outdoor spaces. It’s diffi- Mr Levy reckons that England’s sec- last that long, and they are not good for
try — manufacturers of outdoor heaters. cult to see over the next three, four, five ond lockdown will provide some tempo- the environment,” said Ralph Findlay,
A wave of new restrictions on indoor months being able to operate normally,” rary respite for suppliers. chief executive of UK pub group
gatherings in western countries heading he said. “It’s a bit of a relief as we were not cop- Marston’s, which has left heaters out of
into winter has set off a scramble for England’s second lockdown starts ing with the level of demand,” said Mr its plans to navigate the pandemic.
heaters that will allow people to social- today and is scheduled to last until Levy, who plans to use the window to But for other UK pub groups, the
ise safely and warmly. December 2. restock. question of heaters’ green credentials
Buyers range from households keen Heaters aimed at domestic use retail If distributors in the UK and US are takes second place to trying to stay in
to meet friends and family outside to for between £50 and £100, but prices struggling to get hold of heaters, manu- business once allowed to reopen.
pubs, bars and restaurants desperate to can reach up to £800. facturers in China have not been able to Jamie Atherton, general manager at
attract enough customers so they can “People are becoming less price-sen- produce them quickly enough. Quarter, a Bristol-based group of bars,
stay in business through to the spring. sitive,” said Paul Morey, chief executive Sam Xue, general manager at Liangdi, hotels and workspaces, which created
“We’ve been in this business for 55 of Herschel Infrared Heaters, a Bristol- a Changzhou-based manufacturer, said outdoor areas with heaters at two ven-
years and we’ve never seen demand like based manufacturer and supplier. that the company had increased its ues and plans to reconfigure more space
the last three months,” said Pete Arnold, But manufacturers and distributors workforce by 30 per cent since the sum- during the lockdown, is unequivocal.
chief executive of AEI Corporation, an in the US, the UK, Australia and China mer and production was running at “We do this or go down.”
outdoor heating supplier. said the record demand risked pushing 1,000 units a day — double last year’s Additional reporting by Judith Evans in
Despite England’s pubs, bars and res- a supply chain dependent on shipping One Changzhou maker has expanded its workforce 30% and doubled output levels. London and Sun Yu in Beijing
NOVEMBER 5 2020 Section:Companies Time: 4/11/2020 - 18:13 User: jon.wright Page Name: CONEWS1, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 10, 1