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DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL HONTBHEY (V '01 oOV * a ••- v ' NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS ESTONIA PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVAL - IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY by Timothy J. Marshall June 1997 Thesis Co-Advisors: Donald Abenheim Paul Stockton Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE FormApproved OMBNo. 0704-0188 Publicreportingburdenforthiscollectionofinformationisestimatedtoaverage1 hourperresponse, includingthetimeforreviewing instruction, searchingexistingdatasources,gatheringandmaintainingthedataneeded,andcompletingandreviewingthecollectionofinformation. Send commentsregardingthisburdenestimateoranyotheraspectofthiscollectionofinformation, includingsuggestionsforreducingthisburden,to WashingtonheadquartersServices, DirectorateforInformationOperationsandReports, 1215JeffersonDavisHighway, Suite1204,Arlington,VA 22202-4302,andtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget, PaperworkReductionProject(0704-0188)Washington DC20503. 1. AGENCY USEONLY(Leaveblank) 2. REPORTDATE 3. REPORTTYPEANDDATESCOVERED June 1997 Master's Thesis 4. TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTONIA- PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVALIN THE TWENTY FIRSTCENTURY 6. AUTHOR(S) Marshall, TimothyJ. 7. PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) 8R.EPPEORRFTONRUMMIBNEGRORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCY NAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) 10.SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Theviews expressed in thisthesis arethoseoftheauthor anddonotreflecttheofficial policyorposition oftheDepartment of DefenseortheU.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT 12b.DISTRIBUTIONCODE Approvedforpublicrelease; distribution unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) In many ways, Estonia's 750 years offoreign occupation created an environment in which independence flourishes today. When the opportunity to reassert its independence came, the Estonians were able to rely on a remarkable degree of popular supportand unanimityin all major aspects oftheprocess. In the six years that have passed since independence, the Estonians have established a stable currency and a successful economy. Theyhave established therule oflawand have conducted freeand democratic elections. They created a military from scratch, and have formed a multi-national peace-keeping battalion with the other Baltic States which has conductedpeace-keepingoperations both in Bosniaand in Lebanon. Estonia's foreign policy priority is gaining admission into the EU and NATO. The debate over Estonian admission intoNATO has several implications for U.S. policy. First, there is a large Baltic constituencywithin the U.S. who were quite active duringthe Soviet occupation and helped keep Baltic policy on the American foreign policy agenda. Secondly, Estonian membership in NATO is important because the U.S. supports the inclusion ofCentral and East European nations into the alliance. Finally, the decision ofwhether or not to offer Estonia membership is likelyto have a effect U.S./Russian relations. Russiahaspubliclystated on manyoccasionsthattheydonotsupport anyoftheBalticnationsjoiningNATO. 14. SUBJECTTERMS 15. NUMBEROF Estonian National Security, Estonian ArmedForces, Nordic Cooperation, BalticCooperation PAGES 129 16. PRICECODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION O18F.TSHEICSUPRAIGTEYCLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITYCLASSIFI-CATION A20B.SLTIRMAICTTATIONOF OFREPORT OFABSTRACT Unclassified UL Unclassified Unclassified NSN7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298(Rev.2-89 Prescribed by ANSIStd. 239-18 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ESTONIA - PROSPECTS FOR SURVIVAL IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY Timothy J. Marshall Captain, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1987 Submitted in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS fromthe NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 1997 VWKot