ERIC EJ854358: Chapter 2: Youth with Disabilities Leaving Secondary School

2005·0.18 MB·English

by  ERIC

24 Volume 27, Number 2, Winter 2005
Chapter 2: Youth with Disabilities Leaving Secondary School.
Excerpted from: Changes Over Time in the Early Postschool Outcomes of Youth with
Disabilities. A Report of Findings from the National Longitudinal Transition Study (NLTS)
and the National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2).
By Mary Wagner, SRI International
Dropout statistics for 1986 in- 2001 and 2003, respectively, to disability classifications,3 and
dicated that only 55% of drop- learn more about prevention who differ in age, gender, house-
outs under age 20 were em- and intervention strategies for hold income, and race/
ployed, only 31% of male drop- students with disabilities who ethnicity, when significant.
outs and one in seven female have dropped out of high school
Changes in School-Exit
dropouts were working full-time, or are at risk for doing so.
and although dropouts were Data reported by the states Status and Timing
fewer than 20% of the adult to OSEP annually suggest that
Findings from NLTS and NLTS2
population, they constituted efforts since the mid 1990s are
are consistent with state-re-
66% of the national prison popu- paying off. OSEP reports that in
ported data showing an increase
lation (William T. Grant Foun- the 1999-2000 school year, the
over time in the graduation
dation Commission on Work, dropout rate among youth with
rate among youth with disabili-
Family and Citizenship, 1988). disabilities was 29.4%, a de-
ties and a corresponding decline
Since that time, the economic cline of 4.7 percentage points
in the dropout rate (Exhibit 2-
costs of dropping out have risen over 5 years (U.S. Department
1). The proportion of school
markedly as the workplace in- of Education, 2002). A compari-
leavers who had received a high
creasingly demands better- son of findings regarding school
school diploma or certificate of
skilled and more technologi- completion from NLTS and
completion increased from 54%
cally savvy workers. High school NLTS21 permits a longer view of
to 70% between 1987 and 2003,
dropouts now are 72% more the changing pattern of school
and those leaving school with-
likely to be unemployed and completion from 1987 through
out finishing declined from 46%
earn 27% less than high school 2003. It also draws on reports of to 30% (p<.001 for both changes).4
graduates (U.S. Department of individual youth with disabili-
Although they are referred to
Labor, 2005). ties or their parents, rather
here as dropouts, in cohort 1,
During the 1990s, as the than relying on aggregate sta-
this group included 6% of youth
economic consequences of drop- tistics, which can underesti-
who were reported to have been
ping out were better understood, mate dropout rates (U.S. Depart-
suspended or expelled or left
attention to ameliorating the ment of Education, 2002;
school for other reasons without
high dropout rate among stu- Wagner, 1991).
finishing; the dropout rate for
dents with disabilities increased The following sections iden-
cohort 2 includes 1% of such
(e.g., Thurlow, Christenson, tify the rates at which youth
school leavers. The rate of
Sinclair, Evelo, & Thornton, 1995; with disabilities left high school
school completion in cohort 2
Sinclair, Christenson, Evelo, & in a 2-year period. Youth in-
was the same as that in the gen-
Hurley, 1998). In the early years cluded in these findings from eral population, 70%,5 whereas in
of this century a federal commit- NLTS2 were all in high school
cohort 1, it was much lower (54%
ment was made that “secondary in the fall of the 2000-01 school vs. 76%, p<.001).6
school students with disabilities year and had left high school by
In addition to being more
receive the support they need the time of the 2003 interviews
likely to have finished high
to complete high school pre- with parents and youth.2 Youth
school, cohort 2 youth also were
pared for postsecondary educa- in NLTS were in school in the
more likely that their cohort 1
tion or employment” (Office of fall of the 1985-86 school year
peers to have been out of school
Special Education Programs, and had left school by fall 1987.
at least 1 year (57% vs. 42%,
2001, p. 14). As a result, the Of- Rates are calculated by dividing
p<.01). This change likely re-
fice of Special Education Pro- the number of youth reported to
sults at least in part from the
grams (OSEP) funded the What have left school in a particular
fact that many more youth rep-
Works Transition Synthesis Re- way (e.g., by graduating) by the
resented in NLTS2 were at the
search Project and the National total number of youth who had
appropriate grade level for their
Dropout Prevention Center for left school. Rates are reported
age than was true among those
Students with Disabilities in for youth with different primary
represented in NLTS (Wagner,
The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 25
Exhibit 2-1
Changes in School-Exit Status and Timing of Youth with Disabilities
Cameto, & Newman, 2003). Fur- Differential Changes
speech, hearing, visual, or ortho-
ther, the grades of youth with dis- Related to Disability
pedic impairments ranged from
abilities improved over time
Category 79% to 94%. However, even with
(Wagner, Newman, & Cameto,
a 16-percentage-point increase
2004). These two factors would Improvements in the school
in their school completion rate,
result in more cohort 2 youth completion status of youth with
only 56% of cohort 2 youth with
with disabilities graduating disabilities were not distributed
emotional disturbances were
with their age peers in the gen- equally across disability catego-
reported to have finished high
eral population and thus more ries (Exhibit 2-2). Only youth
school, a rate similar to youth
18- and 19-year-olds in that co- with learning disabilities, men-
with other health impairments
hort being out of school longer. tal retardation, or emotional dis-
and multiple disabilities or deaf-
The fact that cohort 2 youth with turbances had a significant in-
blindness (59% and 51%, respec-
disabilities had been out of crease in the school completion
tively). Youth with emotional
school longer than cohort 1 rate and a corresponding de-
disturbances or multiple dis-
peers could help explain differ- cline in the dropout rate, rang-
abilities or deaf-blindness also
ences in outcomes that are af- ing from 16 to 21 percentage
were the least likely to have fin-
fected by the length of time points (p<.05 and p<.001). In-
ished high school in cohort 1
youth were out of school (e.g. creases for youth with learning
(39% and 26%).
ever working or enrolling in disabilities or mental retarda-
In addition to increased
postsecondary education since tion brought their school comple-
school completion rates, youth
high school.) tion rates to more than 70% in
with learning disabilities and
cohort 2; rates for youth with
26 Volume 27, Number 2, Winter 2005
emotional disturbances were youngest age group. Whereas in p<.001 and p<.01). In contrast,
joined by those with speech, cohort 1, almost none of the 15- only youth in the highest in-
hearing, and visual impair- through 17-year-old school come group experienced a sig-
ments in being more likely in leavers had finished high nificant increase in the propor-
cohort 2 than previously to have school, in cohort 2, 44% of them tion who had been out of high
been out of school at least 1 had, largely 17-year-olds who school at least a year (23 per-
year. Increases ranged from 14 graduated with their age peers centage points, p<.01).
percentage points for youth in the general population. Fur- Race/ethnicity. Both white
with emotional disturbances to ther, 19-year-olds were much and African-American youth
34 percentage points for those more likely in cohort 2 than pre- with disabilities had significant
with visual impairments (p<.05 viously to have been out of improvements in school
for both increases). These cat- school at least a year (74% vs. completion rates, bringing to
egories of youth also all experi- 43%, p<.001), suggesting many about three-fourths the propor-
enced increases in the likeli- had graduated earlier. tion of youth in both groups who
hood that they were at the typi- Gender. Only boys with dis- had completed high school.
cal grade level for their age abilities experienced signifi- White youth were the only group
(Wagner, Cameto, et al., 2003), cant improvements in school to have a significant increase
as well as demonstrating im- completion rates (Exhibit 2-4); in the proportion who had been
provements in their grades they demonstrated a 20-per- out of school at least a year, al-
(Wagner, Newman, et al., 2004). centage-point increase in their though all three groups had
However, similar changes in school completion rate and an similar rates in cohort 2, rang-
grade-for-age among youth with 18-percentage-point increase in ing from 55% to 63% compared
mental retardation or orthope- the likelihood of having been with 39% to 63% in cohort 1.
dic and other health impair- out of school at least a year. Al-
Summary
ments and similar improve- though girls did not have simi-
ments in grades for youth with lar changes, their dropout and Analyses reported in this chap-
other health impairments or completion rates in cohort 2 ter demonstrate substantial
multiple disabilities apparently were not significantly different improvements in the school-
did not translate into increased from those of boys, nor was the exit status of youth with dis-
probabilities that youth in those likelihood that they had been abilities since the mid-1980s,
categories were leaving school out of school at least a year. with the completion rate in-
earlier. Household income. Sizable creasing and the dropout rate
changes in school-exit status decreasing by 17 percentage
Differential Changes
occurred only among youth in points. With these changes,
Related to Demographic the lowest and middle income 70% of cohort 2 youth with dis-
groups (Exhibit 2-5), who had in- abilities had completed high
Characteristics
creases in school completion school. A sizable increase also
Changes in school completion rates of 18 and 26 percentage was noted in the percentage of
status and timing occurred dif- points, respectively. Although out-of-school youth with disabili-
ferently for youth with disabili- these groups had similar ties who had left school at least a
ties who differed in age, gender, completion rates in cohort 1, the year earlier, suggesting youth were
household income, and race/ larger increase among youth in increasingly likely to have left
ethnicity, as noted below. the middle income group re- high school with their same-age
Age. Improvements in sulted in a significantly higher peers in the general population.
school completion rates oc- completion rate for them in co- Increases in school comple-
curred only among youth with hort 2 relative to their lower- tion rates were significant for
disabilities who were ages 15 income peers (74% vs. 60%, youth with learning disabilities,
through 18 (Exhibit 2-3); the p<.05). In fact, the cohort 2 mental retardation, and emo-
rate for 19-year-olds already was school completion rate of the tional disturbances. Nonethe-
the highest of any age group in middle income group did not dif- less, in both cohorts, youth with
cohort 1 and did not increase ap- fer markedly from that of the emotional disturbances had the
preciably over time. The in- highest income group, whose lowest completion rate and high-
crease in the likelihood that school completion rate had est dropout rate of any disability
youth with disabilities were at been significantly higher than category; 44% left school without
the typical grade level for their both the middle and lowest in- finishing in cohort 2. Improve-
age appears to have had a par- come groups in cohort 1 (71% vs. ments in school completion rates
ticularly noticeable effect on the 48% and 41%, respectively, were largest for boys, youth ages
The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 27
Exhibit 2-2
Changes in School-Exit Status and Timing, by Disability Category
MD/
LD^ SLI MR ED HI VI OI OHI D-B
Percentage completing
high school
Cohort 1 (1987) 56.1 60.2 50.7 39.4 77.1 85.1 84.8 62.3 26.2
(4.7) (6.7) (6.0) (5.2) (4.9) (5.8) (6.9) (8.7) (11.7)
Cohort 2 (2003) 74.0 79.4 71.8 55.8 82.2 94.0 85.9 58.6 50.8
(5.0) (8.6) (7.2) (5.5) (6.6) (4.7) (5.6) (12.9) (13.8)
Percentage-pt. change +17.9*** +19.2 +21.1* +16.4* +5.1 +8.9 +1.1 -3.7 +24.6
Percentage dropping
out of high school
Cohort 1 (1987) 43.9 39.8 49.3 60.0 22.9 14.9 15.2 37.7 73.8
(4.7) (6.7) (6.0) (5.2) (4.9) (5.8) (6.9) (8.7) (11.7)
Cohort 2 (2003) 26.0 20.6 28.2 44.2 17.8 6.0 14.1 41.4 49.2
(5.0) (8.6) (7.2) (5.5) (6.6) (4.7) (5.6) (12.9) (13.8)
Percentage-pt. change -17.9*** -19.2 -21.1* -16.4* -5.1 -8.9 +1.1 +3.7 -24.6
Percentage out of high
school at least 1 year
Cohort 1 (1987) 42.7 41.8 39.3 43.4 30.3 35.3 25.0 49.2 65.2
(4.6) (7.0) (5.5) (5.1) (5.2) (7.6) (8.0) (8.8) (12.2)
Cohort 2 (2003) 59.6 70.3 41.4 57.6 52.5 69.7 47.5 46.4 36.6
(5.5) (9.7) (7.6) (5.4) (8.3) (9.0) (7.9) (12.8) (12.5)
Percentage-pt. change +16.9* +28.5* +2.1 +14.2* +22.2** +34.4* +22.5 -2.8 -28.6
^LD=Learning Disability; SLI= Speech/Language Impairment; MR= Mental Retardation, ED= Emotional Dis-
ability; HI= Hearing Impairment; VI= Visual Impairment; OI= Orthopedic Impairment; OHI= Other Health
Impairment; MD/D-B= Multiple Disabilities/Deaf-Blindness
Exhibit 2-3 Exhibit Sources: NLTS Wave 1 parent interview
and NLTS2 Wave 2 parent/youth interviews.
Changes in School-Exit Status and Timing of Youth with Statistically significant difference in a two-tailed
test at the following levels: *p<.05; **p<.01;
Disabilities, by Age ***p<.001
Standard errors are in parentheses.
15 through 17 18 19
Percentage completing
15 through 18, for those who were
high school
white or African-American, and those
Cohort 1 (1987) 6.5 44.7 74.1
(4.4) (5.3) (3.7) in the lowest or middle third of the
Cohort 2 (2003) 43.7 70.1 80.1 household income distribution. In
(10.1) (5.4) (4.7) fact, the 26-percentage-point increase
Percentage-pt. change +37.2*** +25.4*** +6.0 in school completion among youth in
Percentage dropping
the middle income group eliminated
out of high school
the significant disadvantage relative
Cohort 1 (1987) 93.5 55.3 25.9
to higher-income peers that was ap-
(4.4) (5.3) (3.7)
parent in cohort 1. Outcomes of youth
Cohort 2 (2003) 56.3 29.9 19.9
(10.1) (5.4) (4.7) with disabilities reported in subse-
Percentage-pt. change -37.2*** -25.4*** -6.0 quent chapters may well reflect the
Percentage out of high higher school completion rate for youth
school at least 1 year with disabilities as a whole and for
Cohort 1 (1987) 45.4 38.7 42.9 the sub-groups that experienced
(7.7) (5.0) (4.1)
these increases.
Cohort 2 (2003) 31.2 44.6 74.0
(9.1) (5.8) (5.1)
Percentage-pt. change -14.2 +5.9 +31.1***
28 Volume 27, Number 2, Winter 2005
References
Exhibit 2-4 Office of Special Education Pro-
grams. (2001). GPRA FY 2000 re-
Changes in School-Exit Status and Timing of Youth with port and FY 2002 performance plan,
p.14. Washington, DC: Author.
Disabilities, by Gender
Sinclair, M. F., Christenson, S. L.,
Evelo, D. L. & Hurley, C. M.
Boys Girls (1998, Fall). Dropout prevention
Percentage completing for high-risk youth with disabili-
high school ties: Efficacy of a sustained
Cohort 1 (1987) 52.4 56.3 school engagement procedure.
(3.8) (5.7) Exceptional Children, 65 (1), 7-21.
Cohort 2 (2003) 72.4 66.4
Thurlow, M. L., Christenson, S.,
(4.3) (6.4)
Sinclair, M., Evelo, D. L., &
Percentage-pt. change +20.0*** +10.1
Thornton, H. (1995). Staying in
Percentage dropping
middle school: Middle schools stu-
out of high school
dents with learning and emotional
Cohort 1 (1987) 47.6 43.7
disabilities. (ABCDropout Preven-
(3.8) (5.7)
tion and Intervention Series).
Cohort 2 (2003) 27.6 33.6
Minneapolis, MN: University of
(4.3) (6.4)
Minnesota,Institute on Commu-
Percentage-pt. change -20.0*** -10.1
nity Integration.
Percentage out of high
U.S. Department of Education.
school at least 1 year
(2002). To assure the free appro-
priate public education of all chil-
Cohort 1 (1987) 41.4 43.5
dren with disabilities. Twenty-
(4.7) (6.7) fourth annual report to Congress
Cohort 2 (2003) 58.9 52.9 on the Implementation of the Indi-
(4.7) (6.7) viduals with Disabilities Education
Percentage-pt. change +17.5** +9.4 Act. Washington, DC: Author.
Exhibit 2-5
Changes in School-Exit Status and Timing of Youth with Disabilities, by Household Income and
Race/Ethnicity
Income Race/Ethnicity
African-
Lowest Middle Highest White American Hispanic
Percentage completing high school
Cohort 1 (1987) 40.9 47.7 71.2 54.1 52.7 43.7
(6.2) (6.2) (4.6) (3.8) (6.5) (13.5)
Cohort 2 (2003) 59.7 73.7 81.1 71.7 74.8 59.8
(6.9) (7.0) (5.7) (4.4) (7.2) (11.7)
Percentage-pt. change +18.8* +26.0** +9.9 +17.6** +22.1* +16.1
Percentage dropping out of high
school
Cohort 1 (1987) 59.1 52.3 28.8 45.9 47.3 56.3
(6.2) (6.2) (4.6) (3.8) (6.5) (13.5)
Cohort 2 (2003) 40.3 26.3 18.9 28.3 25.2 40.2
(6.9) (7.0) (5.7) (4.4) (7.2) (11.7)
Percentage-pt. change -18.8* -26.0** -9.9 -17.6** -22.1* -16.1
Percentage out of high school at
least 1 year
Cohort 1 (1987) 46.0 41.0 31.3 38.9 43.4 62.8
(6.1) (6.0) (4.7) (3.6) (6.2) (12.6)
Cohort 2 (2003) 56.3 51.6 53.9 54.7 62.6 60.2
(6.9) (7.7) (7.2) (4.9) (7.7) (11.3)
Percentage-pt. change +10.3 +10.6 +22.6** +15.8** +19.2 -2.6
Exhibit Sources: NLTS Wave 1 parent interview and NLTS2 Wave 2 parent/youth interviews.
Statistically significant difference in a two-tailed test at the following levels: *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
Standard errors are in parentheses.
The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 29
U.S. Department of Labor. (2003). half: Non-college youth in America. older than 19, many of whom
NLSY97 User’s Guide 2003. Guide Washington, DC: Author. stayed in high school through
to Rounds 1-5. Columbus, OH: age 21, thereby increasing
Center for Human Resource Re- This chapter was reproduced the school completion rate for
search, The Ohio State Univer- with permission from: Wagner, the full NLTS sample relative
sity. Available at http://www.
M., Newman, L., Cameto, R., & to the subsample included in
bls.gov/nls/97guide/
Levine, P. (2005). Changes over this report.
nls97usg.htm
time in the early postschool out- 5 Calculated for out-of-school 15-
U.S. Department of Labor. (2004).
A guide to the 1979-2002 National comes of youth with disabilities. through 19-year-olds using data
Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. A report of findings from the Na- from the second wave of the
Columbus, OH: Center for Hu- tional Longitudinal Transition 1997 NationalLongitudinal Sur-
man Resource Research, The Study (NLTS) and the National vey of Youth (U.S. Department
Ohio State University. Available Longitudinal Transition Study-2 of Labor, 2003).
at http://www.bls.gov/nls/ (NLTS2). Menlo Park, CA: SRI 6 Calculated using data from
97guide/nls97usg.htm International. the years 1979 through 1983
U.S. Department of Labor. (2005).
from the National Longitudi-
Educational resources: So you’re
NLTS2 has been funded with nal Survey of Youth (U.S. De-
thinking of dropping out of school.
Federal funds from the U.S. De- partment of Labor, 2004).
Downloaded May 5, 2005 from
partment of Education, Office of
http://www.dol.gov/asp/fibre/
dropout.htm Special Education Programs,
Wagner, M. (1991). Sticking it out: under contract number
Secondary school completion. In ED-01-CO-0003. The content of
M. Wagner, L. Newman,R. this publication does not neces-
D’Amico, E. D. Jay, P. Butler- sarily reflect the views or poli-
Nalin, C. Marder, et al., Youth cies of the U.S. Department of
with Disabilities: How Are
Education nor does mention of trade
They Doing. The First Comprehen-
names, commercial products, or
sive Report of the National Longitu-
organizations imply endorsement
dinal Transition Study.Menlo
by the U.S. government.
Park, CA: SRI International.
Wagner, M. (1993). Dropouts with
Endnotes
disabilities. What do we know?
What can we do? Menlo Park, CA: 1 Youth for whom data are
SRI International. available for NLTS (1987) and
Wagner, M., Cameto, R., & NLTS2 (2003) are referred to
Newman, L. (2003). Youth with as cohort 1 and cohort 2, re-
disabilities: A changing population. spectively. For both groups of
A report of findings from the Na-
youth, 19% were 15 through
tional Longitudinal Transition
17, 31% were 18, and 50%
Study (NLTS) and the National Lon-
were 19.
gitudinal Transition Study-2
2 Interviews were conducted
(NLTS2). Menlo Park, CA: SRI
International. Available at http:/ between April and November
/www.nlts2.org/pdfs/ of 2003.
full_report_changepop.pdf 3 Because there are too few
Wagner, M., Newman, L., & youth in the category of deaf-
Cameto, R. (2004). Changes over blindness to report sepa-
time in the secondary school expe- rately, they have been com-
riences of students with disabili-
bined in these analyses with
ties. A report of findings from the
the category of multiple dis-
National Longitudinal Transition
abilities.
Study (NLTS) and the National Lon-
4 This graduation rate for co-
gitudinal Transition Study-2
(NLTS2). Menlo Park, CA: SRI hort 1 is lower and the drop-
International. Available at out rate higher than rates
http://www.nlts2.org/pdfs/ reported for the full NLTS
changestime_compreport.pdf sample (Wagner, 1991;
William T. Grant Foundation Com- Wagner, 1993) because the
mission on Work, Family and
analyses reported here ex-
Citizenship. (1988). The forgotten
clude NLTS youth who were