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TT HH EE HH OO RR II ZZ OO NN RR EE PP OO RR TT 22001111 EEDDIITTIIOONN The New Media CoNsorTiuM The 2011 Horizon report is made possible via a grant from HP HP creates innovative technology solutions that benefit individuals, businesses, governments and society. HP’s Office for Global Social Innovation applies HP’s global reach, broad portfolio of products and services, and the expertise of its employees to support initiatives in education, healthcare and communities around the world. As the world’s largest technology company, HP brings together a portfolio that spans printing, personal computing, software, services and IT infrastructure to solve customer problems. More information about HP is available at http://www.hp.com. TT HH EE HH OO RR II ZZ OO NN RR EE PP OO RR TT 22001111 EEDDIITTIIOONN The New Media CoNsorTiuM The 2011 Horizon Report is a collaboration between The New Media CoNsorTiuM and the eduCause Learning initiative an eduCause Program Since 2005, the annual Horizon Report has been the most visible aspect of a focused collaboration between the EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative (ELI) and the New Media Consortium in which the two organizations engage their memberships in both the creation and outcomes of the research. The New Media Consortium (NMC) is a globally focused not-for-profit consortium dedicated to the exploration and use of new media and new technologies. Its hundreds of member institutions constitute an elite list of the most highly regarded colleges, universities, and museums in the worlds. For nearly 20 years, the consortium and its members have dedicated themselves to exploring and developing applications of emerging technologies for learning, research, and creative inquiry. For more information on the NMC, visit www.nmc.org. The ELI is a community of higher education institutions and organizations committed to advancing learning through information technology (IT) innovation. ELI is a strategic initiative of EDUCAUSE. While EDUCAUSE serves those interested in advancing higher education through technology, ELI specifically explores innovative technologies and practices that advance learning and promotes innovation in teaching and learning using information technology. To learn more about the ELI, visit www.educause.edu/eli. © 2011, The New Media Consortium. ISBN 978-0-9828290-5-9 Permission is granted under a Creative Commons Attribution license to replicate, copy, distribute, transmit, or adapt this report freely provided that attribution is provided as illustrated in the citation below. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA. Citation: Johnson, L., Smith, R., Willis, H., Levine, A., and Haywood, K., (2011). The 2011 Horizon Report. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium. Cover photograph, “Kauai’i Solstice,” © 2005, Larry Johnson. TabLe of CoNTeNTs executive summary .......................................................................................................................................2  Key Trends  Critical Challenges  Technologies to Watch  The Horizon Project Time-to-adoption: one Year or Less Electronic Books ........................................................................................................................................8  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Electronic Books in Practice  For Further Reading Mobiles ....................................................................................................................................................12  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Mobiles in Practice  For Further Reading Time-to-adoption: Two to Three Years Augmented Reality ..................................................................................................................................16  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Augmented Reality in Practice  For Further Reading Game-Based Learning ............................................................................................................................20  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Game-Based Learning in Practice  For Further Reading Time-to-adoption: four to five Years Gesture-Based Computing ......................................................................................................................24  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Gesture-Based Computing in Practice  For Further Reading Learning Analytics ...................................................................................................................................28  Overview  Relevance for Teaching, Learning, Research, or Creative Inquiry  Learning Analytics in Practice  For Further Reading Methodology .................................................................................................................................................31 2011 Horizon Project advisory board .........................................................................................................33 T H e H o r i Z o N r e P o r T – 2 0 1 1 1 eXeCuTiVe suMMarY The internationally recognized series of Horizon section of this report. Reports is part of the New Media Consortium’s The report’s format is consistent from year to year Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture and edition to edition, and opens with a discussion of established in 2002 that identifies and describes the trends and challenges identified by the Advisory emerging technologies likely to have a large impact Board as most important for the next five years. The over the coming five years on a variety of sectors format of the main section of this edition closely reflects around the globe. This volume, the 2011 Horizon the focus of the Horizon Project itself, centering on Report, examines emerging technologies for their the applications of emerging technologies in higher potential impact on and use in teaching, learning, education settings. Each section is introduced and creative inquiry. It is the eighth in the annual with an overview that describes what the topic is, series of reports focused on emerging technology in followed by a discussion of the particular relevance the higher education environment. of the topic to teaching, learning, and creative inquiry. To create the report, the Horizon Project’s Advisory Several concrete examples of how the technology is Board, an international body of experts in education, being used are given. Finally, each section closes technology, business, and other fields, engaged in with an annotated list of suggested readings and a discussion based on a set of research questions additional examples that expand on the discussion intended to surface significant trends and challenges in the report, including a link to the tagged resources and to identify a broad array of potential technologies collected during the research process by project for the report. This dialog was enriched by a wide staff, the Advisory Board, and others in the global range of resources, current research, and practice Horizon Project community. that drew on the expertise of the NMC community and the communities of the members of the board. Key Trends These interactions among the Advisory Board are The technologies featured in every edition of the the focus of the Horizon Report research, and this Horizon Report are embedded within a contemporary report details the areas in which these experts were context that reflects the realities of the time, both in in strong agreement. the sphere of education and in the world at large. Each edition of the Horizon Report introduces six To ensure this context was well understood as the emerging technologies or practices that are likely to current report was produced, the Advisory Board enter mainstream use within three adoption horizons engaged in an extensive review of current articles, over the next five years. Key trends and challenges interviews, papers, and new research to identify that will affect current practice over the same time and rank trends that are currently affecting the frame add context to these discussions. Over the practices of teaching, learning, and creative inquiry. course of just a few weeks, the Advisory Board came Once detailed, the list of trends was then ranked to a consensus about the six topics that appear according to how significant each was likely to be for here in the 2011 Horizon Report. The examples and learning-focused institutions over the next five years. readings under each topic area are meant to provide The highest ranked of those trends had significant practical models as well as access to more detailed agreement among the Advisory Board members, information. Wherever possible, an effort was made who considered them to be key drivers of educational to highlight the innovative work going on among technology adoptions for the period 2011 through learning-focused institutions. The precise research 2015. They are listed here in the order in which the methodology employed is detailed in the closing Advisory Board ranked them.  The abundance of resources and relationships will perform their work from multiple locations by made easily accessible via the Internet is 2013. increasingly challenging us to revisit our roles  The technologies we use are increasingly as educators in sense-making, coaching, and cloud-based, and our notions of IT support credentialing. This multi-year trend was again are decentralized. This trend, too, was noted in ranked very highly, indicating its continued 2010 and continues to influence decisions about influence. With personal access to the Internet emerging technology adoption at educational from mobile devices on the rise, the growing set institutions. As we turn to mobile applications for of resources available as open content, and a immediate access to many resources and tasks variety of reference and textbooks available that once were performed on desktop computers, electronically, students’ easy and pervasive it makes sense to move data and services into access to information outside of formal campus the cloud. The challenges of privacy and control resources continues to encourage educators to continue to affect adoption and deployment, but take a careful look at the ways we can best serve work continues on resolving the issues raised by learners. increasingly networked information.  People expect to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want. Critical Challenges This highly-ranked trend, also noted last year, Any discussion of technology adoption must also continues to permeate all aspects of daily life. consider important constraints and challenges, Mobiles contribute to this trend, where increased and the Advisory Board drew deeply from a careful availability of the Internet feeds the expectation analysis of current events, papers, articles, and of access. Feelings of frustration are common similar sources, as well as from personal experience when it is not available. Companies are starting in detailing a long list of challenges institutions face to respond to consumer demand for access in adopting any new technology. Several important anywhere; in 2010, programs like Google’s Fiber challenges are detailed below, but it was clear that for Communities sought to expand access to behind them all was a pervasive sense that individual underserved communities, and several airlines organizational constraints are likely the most began offering wireless network access in the air important factor in any decision to adopt — or not to during flights. adopt — any given technology. While acknowledging  The world of work is increasingly collaborative, that local barriers to technology adoptions are giving rise to reflection about the way student many and significant, the Advisory Board focused projects are structured. This trend continues its discussions on challenges that are common to from 2010 and is being driven by the increasingly institutions and the educational community as a global and cooperative nature of business whole. interactions facilitated by Internet technologies. The highest ranked challenges they identified are The days of isolated desk jobs are disappearing, listed here, in the order of their rated importance. giving way to models in which teams work actively together to address issues too far-reaching or  Digital media literacy continues its rise in im- complex for a single worker to resolve alone. portance as a key skill in every discipline and Market intelligence firm IDC notes that some profession. This challenge, first noted in 2008, one billion people fit the definition of mobile reflects universal agreement among those on workers already, and projects that fully one-third the Horizon Project Advisory Board. Although of the global workforce — 1.2 billon workers — there is broad consensus that digital media liter- T H e H o r i Z o N r e P o r T – 2 0 1 1 3 e X e C u T i V e s u M M a r Y acy is vitally important for today’s students, what ticing, but it can be overwhelming to attempt to skills constitute digital literacy are still not well- keep up with even a few of the many new tools defined nor universally taught. Teacher prepara- that are released. User-created content is ex- tion programs are beginning to include courses ploding, giving rise to information, ideas, and related to digital media literacy, and universities opinions on all sorts of interesting topics, but fol- are beginning to fold these literacy skills into lowing even some of the hundreds of available coursework for students, but progress continues authorities means sifting through a mountain of to be slow. The challenge is exacerbated by the information on a weekly or daily basis. There is fact that digital technologies morph and change a greater need than ever for effective tools and quickly at a rate that generally outpaces curricu- filters for finding, interpreting, organizing, and re- lum development. trieving the data that is important to us.  Appropriate metrics of evaluation lag behind These trends and challenges are a reflection of the the emergence of new scholarly forms of au- impact of technology that is occurring in almost thoring, publishing, and researching. Noted first every aspect of our lives. They are indicative of the in 2010, this challenge continues. Electronic changing nature of the way we communicate, access books, blogs, multimedia pieces, networked information, connect with peers and colleagues, presentations, and other kinds of scholarly work learn, and even socialize. Taken together, they can be difficult to evaluate and classify accord- provided the Advisory Board a frame through ing to traditional metrics, but faculty members which to consider the potential impacts of nearly 50 are increasingly experimenting with these al- emerging technologies and related practices that ternate forms of expression. At the same time, were analyzed and discussed for possible inclusion reconciling new forms of scholarly activity with in this edition of the Horizon Report. Six of those old standards continues to be difficult, creating were chosen via successive rounds of ranking; they tension and raising questions as to where fac- are summarized below and detailed in the main body ulty energy is best directed. of the report.  Economic pressures and new models of edu- Technologies to watch cation are presenting unprecedented competi- The six technologies featured in the 2011 Horizon tion to traditional models of the university. The Report are placed along three adoption horizons twin challenges of providing high-quality ser- that indicate likely time frames for their entrance into vices and controlling costs continue to impel in- mainstream use for teaching, learning, or creative stitutions to seek creative solutions. As a result, inquiry. The near-term horizon assumes the likelihood innovative institutions are developing new mod- of entry into the mainstream for institutions within the els to serve students, such as streaming survey next twelve months; the mid-term horizon, within two courses over the network so students can at- to three years; and the far-term, within four to five tend from their dorm or other locations to free years. It should be noted at the outset that the Horizon up lecture space. As these pressures continue, Report is not a predictive tool. It is meant, rather, to other models will emerge as well. highlight emerging technologies with considerable  Keeping pace with the rapid proliferation of in- potential for our focus areas of teaching, learning, and formation, software tools, and devices is chal- creative inquiry. Each of the six is already the focus lenging for students and teachers alike. New of attention at a number of innovative organizations developments in technology are exciting and around the world, and the work we showcase here their potential for improving quality of life is en- reveals the promise of a wider impact. on the near-term horizon — that is, within the next secured the place of these innovations as the top 12 months — are electronic books and mobiles. technologies for the mid-term horizon. Electronic books are moving closer to mainstream Augmented reality refers to the layering of adoption for educational institutions, having information over a view or representation of appeared on the mid-term horizon last year. Mobiles the normal world, offering users the ability to reappear as well, remaining on the near-term horizon access place-based information in ways that are as they become increasingly popular throughout the compellingly intuitive. Augmented reality brings world as a primary means of accessing Internet a significant potential to supplement information resources. Resistance to the use of mobiles in the delivered via computers, mobile devices, video, classroom continues to impede their adoption in and even the printed book. Much simpler to many schools, but a growing number of institutions create and use now than in the past, augmented are finding ways to take advantage of a technology reality feels at once fresh and new, yet an easy that nearly all students, faculty, and staff carry. extension of existing expectations and practices. Electronic books continue to generate strong Game-based learning has grown in recent interest in the consumer sector and are years as research continues to demonstrate increasingly available on campuses as well. its effectiveness for learning for students of all Modern electronic readers support note-taking ages. Games for education span the range from and research activities, and are beginning single-player or small-group card and board to augment these basic functions with new games all the way to massively multiplayer online capabilities — from immersive experiences games and alternate reality games. Those at the to support for social interaction — that are first end of the spectrum are easy to integrate changing our perception of what it means to with coursework, and in many institutions they read. are already an option; but the greatest potential Mobiles enable ubiquitous access to of games for learning lies in their ability to foster information, social networks, tools for learning collaboration, problem-solving, and procedural and productivity, and much more. Mobile devices thinking. For a variety of reasons, the realization continue to evolve, but it is the increased access of this potential is still two to three years away. to affordable and reliable networks that is driving Looking to the far-term horizon, four to five years this technology now. Mobiles are capable from now for widespread adoption, are gesture- computing devices in their own right — and they based computing and learning analytics. Both are increasingly a user’s first choice for Internet remain largely speculative and not yet in widespread access. usage on campuses, but both are also garnering significant interest and increasing exposure. The second adoption horizon considers technologies expected to gain widespread usage Gesture-based computing moves the control within two to three years, and this year’s candidates of computers from a mouse and keyboard to the are augmented reality and game-based learning. motions of the body via new input devices. De- Both intersect with practices in mainstream popular picted in science fiction movies for years, ges- culture, both have been considered significant tools ture-based computing is now more grounded in for education for many years, and both have made reality thanks to the recent arrival of interface appearances on a number of campuses already. technologies such as Kinect, SixthSense, and Advances in hardware and software, as well as in Tamper, which make interactions with computa- a broader acceptance of new methods in teaching, tional devices far more intuitive and embodied. T H e H o r i Z o N r e P o r T – 2 0 1 1 5 e X e C u T i V e s u M M a r Y Learning analytics loosely joins a variety of with the dual goals of understanding how technology data-gathering tools and analytic techniques is being absorbed using a smaller lens, and also to study student engagement, performance, noting the contrasts between technology use in and progress in practice, with the goal of using one area compared to another. To date, companion what is learned to revise curricula, teaching, and editions have been prepared that center on education assessment in real time. Building on the kinds in Australia, New Zealand, and the fourteen countries of information generated by Google Analytics of Iberoamerica; the series will expand to include and other similar tools, learning analytics aims Europe, Singapore, and Africa over the next two years. to mobilize the power of data-mining tools The flagship Horizon Report, published each in the service of learning, and embracing January, focuses on higher education globally, and is the complexity, diversity, and abundance of translated into multiple languages every year. Over information that dynamic learning environments all editions, the readership of the reports is estimated can generate. at well over 600,000 worldwide, with readers in more Each of these technologies is described in detail than 70 countries. in the main body of the report, where a discussion The Horizon Project Navigator. This edition of of what the technology is and why it is relevant to the Horizon Report kicks off the ninth year of the teaching, learning, and creative inquiry may also be series and a turning point in the NMC’s Emerging found. Given the practical focus of the report, a listing Technologies Initiative, which is dedicated to charting of examples of the technology in use, especially in the landscape of emerging technologies for teaching, higher education, is a key component of each of the learning, and creative inquiry. In each of the preceding six main topics. Our research indicates that all six years, the Horizon Project process has focused of these technologies, taken together, will have a on the creation of a print-based publication (or its significant impact on learning-focused organizations pdf analog), one produced through a collaborative within the next five years. process that leveraged the productive potential of a wiki for posting and responding to ideas, RSS feeds The Horizon Project for gathering information dynamically, and tagging This report is part of a longitudinal research study for collecting and sharing references. The decision of emerging technologies that began in March to print the NMC report was based on the fact that 2002. Since that time, under the banner of the a physical report remains a powerful tool on many Horizon Project, the New Media Consortium and campuses. its research partners have held an ongoing series of conversations and dialogs with hundreds of However, in its continuing interest in modeling the technology professionals, campus technologists, advantages of new technologies, over the course of faculty leaders from colleges and universities, 2010, and with the generous support of the HP, the museum professionals, teachers and other school NMC designed and produced the Horizon Project professionals, and representatives of leading Navigator (http://navigator.nmc.org), an online corporations from more than thirty countries. These database that harnesses the power of technology conversations have been the impetus for a series and social media to create an information and of nearly 20 annual reports focused on emerging resource hub that is made stronger through the technologies relevant to formal and informal learning participation of its users. in colleges, universities, schools, and museums. The Horizon Project Navigator leverages the In 2008, the NMC embarked on a new series of affordances of social media and computation to regional companion editions of the Horizon Report, offer users access to the same materials — and