Elections and Voters in Britain

338 Pages·2021·5.58 MB·English

by  David Denver, Robert Johns

Elections and Voters
in Britain
David Denver · Robert Johns
Elections and Voters in Britain
·
David Denver Robert Johns
Elections and Voters
in Britain
David Denver Robert Johns
Department of Politics, Philosophy University of Essex
and Religion Colchester, Essex, UK
Lancaster University
Lancaster, UK
ISBN 978-3-030-86491-0 ISBN 978-3-030-86492-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86492-7
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Preface
This fifth edition of Elections and Voters in Britain has been a long time
forthcoming. The normal rhythm was to update the book every four
or five years, after each general election. This time, however, no sooner
had we updated the text to reflect one election than another was fast
approaching. The sense of trying to hit a moving target was reinforced
by the fact that more recent elections were unusual in their outcomes
as well as their frequency. Between them, the 2017 and 2019 elections
challenged a variety of received wisdoms about, for example, the role of
theeconomy,thelimitedimpactofnationalcampaigns,theadvantagesof
ideological moderation and the rarity of single-issue voting. Since those
received wisdoms had been carefully laid out in previous editions, the
events of the past few years called for a good deal of updating. Mean-
while, the powerful impact of the votes on Scottish independence and
EU membership has meant that referendums have been promoted from
footnote status to a chapter of their own.
Rehearsing all this explains the delayed arrival of this edition but also,
we hope, why it was worth the wait. In addition to a new chapter on
referendums, the discussions of electoral geography and electoral systems
have now been separated and expanded such that there is a second new
chapter. There is also much new material in each of the other chapters,
with results and survey data from the 2019 election fully incorporated
into the discussion as well as relevant tables and figures. There are many
v
vi PREFACE
analysesalsocoveringthe2017electionaswellascontrastswiththerather
more orthodox contest in 2015.
We used the term ‘updating’ rather than ‘rewriting’ because it is not
clear how far the most recent elections mark a temporary interruption of
normalserviceratherthananewelectoralorder.Forexample,partofthe
verypowerfulBrexiteffectin2019islikelytodieawayastheissueslowly
recedes, with other issues such as the economy liable to regain impor-
tance. On the other hand, part of what looked like a Brexit effect was
more a reflection of longer-term trends in the sociology and geography
of British public opinion, especially relating to the issue of immigration,
and this looks to be potentially a more enduring change. In updating the
chapters,then,wedonotabandonreceivedwisdombutacknowledgethe
severity and estimate the longevity of the challenges posed to it by recent
elections.
As noted in the Preface to the first edition, this book is not primarily
for colleagues actively researching and writing about British elections.
Although there is some fresh data analysis, most specialists in the field
will already know most of what is written in the following pages. Our
hope is that they find it a useful overview which can be recommended
to their students. The broader intention is to summarise and simplify the
work of these colleagues for non-specialists and students in both schools
and universities (as well as people who just happen to be interested in
elections). One consequence of this focus is that we have tried to keep
tables as clear and uncluttered as possible. In some cases this has meant,
for instance, not showing in tables the raw numbers on which calcula-
tions are based. This would be unforgiveable in a research article, of
course, but seems, on balance, to be a sensible strategy in this case. As
before, we have also included a glossary of statistical terms, and items
appearing in the glossary are printed in bold when they first appear in
the text. The explanations and descriptions of various statistical measures
andtechniquesofferedareintendedtobenon-technical.Theyattemptto
enable readers to understand why various techniques are used and what
the results can tell us.
Everyone writing about electoral behaviour in Britain has to acknowl-
edge a debt to the successive teams which, from 1963 onwards, have
undertaken the burden of directing the British Election Study (BES)
surveys. Their task is not getting any easier, especially in respect of the
post-election face-to-face surveys that have been the primary bases for
comparisons over time in previous editions of the book. Arranging and
PREFACE vii
fielding these surveys at short notice is difficult and expensive enough
at the best of times; doing so amid a pandemic is well-nigh impossible.
For this reason, where our analysis of the 2019 election required survey
evidence,wehavedrawnlargelyontheInternetsurveysalsoconductedby
the BES. We are, therefore, grateful for the speed with which the current
BES team, like its predecessors at Essex, made those online survey data
available to colleagues. Also much appreciated are the swift responses by
BES researchers (notably Jon Mellon, Chris Prosser and Jack Bailey) to
our many queries. Since we have not always shown the same prompt-
ness,wearegratefulforthepatienceshowedbyourpublishers,especially
LloydLangman.Finally,weshouldthankChrisCarmanwhoco-authored
the previous edition of the book and also worked on the stillborn 2015
election version, and whose suggestions for updates and additions were
valuable.
Thefirsteditionofthebookbeganwiththewords‘Electionsarefun’.
Almostthirtyyearslatertheyhavebecomeevenmorefun—certainlythey
are more unpredictable, in timing as well as outcome. We hope that this
book will start to develop in at least some readers the same interest and
enthusiasm that we retain for the subject.
Lancaster, UK David Denver
Colchester, UK Robert Johns
Contents
1 Studying British Elections 1
Why Study Elections? 4
Studying Elections 7
Election Results and Survey Data Compared 15
Theories of Voting 20
References 27
2 Turnout: Why People Vote (or Don’t) 29
Turnout Variations Over Time 34
Turnout Variations Across Constituencies 36
Survey Studies of Non-voting 41
The Consequences of Low Turnout 52
Conclusion: What Is to Be Done About Low Turnout? 54
References 57
3 The Changing British Party System 61
Class and the Two-Party System 63
Partisan Alignment 68
Dealignment 71
The Causes of Dealignment 77
Dealignment and Electoral Volatility 86
From Dealignment to Realignment? 91
References 94
ix
x CONTENTS
4 Issues, Policies and Performance 97
Issue Voting 98
Position Issues, Policies and Ideology 103
Valence Issues and Performance 115
The Economy and Voting 118
Conclusion 126
References 127
5 Party Images and Party Leaders 131
Party Images 132
The Content of Party Images 133
Party Images and Party Choice 139
Party Leaders 140
Why Leadership Matters (More) 142
Leader Evaluations and Party Choice 145
The Sources of Party and Leader Images 151
Conclusion 156
References 158
6 Campaigning and the Media 161
National Campaigning 162
Opinion Polls 169
The Media 175
Television 180
The National Press 183
Constituency Campaigning 188
The Digital Campaign 190
Conclusion 194
References 195
7 The Geography of British Elections 201
Regional Variations 201
Urban–Rural Variations 207
Explaining Regional Variations 209
Constituency Variations 212
Tactical Voting 218
Localities and Neighbourhoods 221
References 225
CONTENTS xi
8 Elections and Electoral Systems 229
The Operation of First-Past-the-Post 231
In Defence of First-Past-the-Post 239
Elections and Voting Under Different Electoral Systems 242
Conclusion 249
References 250
9 Referendums 253
Definition and Role 254
The British Experience 256
Referendums and Voters in Britain 258
The Role of the Campaign 273
In Defence of (Some) Direct Democracy 277
References 279
10 Elections and Party Choice in Britain Today 283
Explaining Party Choice 284
Explaining Election Outcomes 304
Conclusion 308
References 310
Glossary of Statistical and Technical Terms 313
Author Index 319
Index 325