Elboiashi, Hosein Ali (2011) The effect of FDI and other foreign capital inflows on growth and ...

309 Pages·2011·4.09 MB·English

Elboiashi, Hosein Ali (2011) The effect of FDI and other foreign capital
inflows on growth and investment in developing economies. PhD thesis.

http://theses.gla.ac.uk/3026/

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Glasgow Theses Service
http://theses.gla.ac.uk/
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The Effect of FDI and Other Foreign Capital Inflows
on Growth and Investment in Developing Economies

By

Hosein A. T. Elboiashi

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in
Economics.

Department of Economics

School of Business

University of Glasgow

November 2011
I

ABSTRACT
This thesis aims to investigate and study a variety of dimensions of the relationship between
foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (DI) and economic growth in the host
countries. The main purpose of this thesis is to empirically examine the implications of the
relationship and complementarity between FDI and DI, and the contribution of the host
country’s factors in achieving the benefits of FDI inflows.
To achieve the aim and to examine the argument of this thesis, the thesis was structured to
include six chapters, containing three empirical chapters. These empirical chapters studied
different hypotheses of the relationship between FDI and economic growth. The first empirical
chapter attempted to find the answer to these two questions: (a) does FDI contribute positively
to GDP; and (b) does FDI really crowd out DI in the host countries. The second empirical
chapter also tried to offer the answer to this question: does FDI contribute to economic growth
in developing countries alone, or does it depend on its initial conditions? Furthermore, the
third empirical chapter studies the direct impact of not only FDI but also other foreign capital
inflows on economic growth, and their indirect impact on economic growth, which works via
domestic investment channel. This chapter searched for the answer to this question: how do
FDI and other types of foreign capital inflows affect economic growth?
Chapter one presents the motivation of the thesis and sets its aim and structure. Chapter two
presents a background of economic literature on the relationship between FDI, DI and
economic growth. This chapter also provides a brief review of theoretical and empirical
background on the interrelationship between those variables, in order to reach a better
understanding of the contributions of FDI and DI to economic growth in the host countries.
Based on this chapter, Chapter three studies empirically the relationship between FDI, DI and
economic growth by applying a multivariate VAR system with the error correction model
(ECM) and time-series and panel-data techniques of cointegration to investigate the links
between FDI, DI and GDP. The empirical evidence reported in this chapter shows that, on the
one hand, FDI crowds out DI in the host countries, either in the short-run or in the long-run
based on the results of time-series analysis. On the other hand, Panel-data techniques provide
strong evidence that FDI has crowding-in effect on DI. Both time-series and panel-data
analysis also provide evidence that FDI can positively affect economic growth in host
II

countries. The results of this chapter also show that GDP have a positive impact on FDI and
DI, either in the short-run or in the long-run. The results also show that DI is positively related
to GDP and FDI in receiving economies.
Based on the results of Chapter three, Chapter four investigated empirically whether FDI
contributes to economic growth alone, or does it depend on the host country’s conditions. The
empirical evidence stated in this chapter shows that FDI inflows have, in general, a
significantly positive impact on growth; however, the magnitude of this effect depends on the
host country’s absorptive capacity as measured by human capital, technology gap,
infrastructure, institution quality, financial market, and trade openness. The results of this
chapter show that the host country must reach a threshold of absorptive capacity in order to
gain the positive externalities offered by FDI inflows. The results of this chapter also show
that domestic investment, human capital, infrastructure development, financial market
development, institution quality, and trade openness are positively related to economic growth,
while the technology gap is negatively related to economic growth.
Based on the results of chapter three and four, chapter five explored whether the positive
impact of FDI and other foreign capital inflows (portfolio investment and loans inflows) in DI
on the host economies can be considered as a growth-enhancing role not only for FDI but also
for other foreign capital inflows. The results reported in this chapter show that all types of
foreign capital inflows have a significant positive influence on economic growth in the host
economies. The empirical evidence reported in this chapter also shows that FDI inflows have a
more significant effect on economic growth than other type of capital inflows, such as
portfolio investment and loans inflows. The results of this chapter also show that all types of
foreign capital inflows have a strong crowding-in effect on DI in the host countries; however,
FDI inflows have a greater crowding-in effect on DI than portfolio investment, and loans
inflows are in between them. The main result presented in chapter five is that the impact of
FDI, portfolio investment and loans inflows on economic growth, which works via domestic
investment channel, is not a significant one, but also is generally greater and more robust than
the direct impact in the host economies.
Generally, the most important contribution of this thesis is that a better understanding of the
relationship between FDI, DI and economic growth in developing countries, taking into
III

account the influence of the host country’s absorptive capacity, and different types of foreign
capital inflows.
IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................... I
LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... IX
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ XI
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................. XIV
DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................... XV
ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................................... XVI
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Motivation ........................................................................................................................ 1
1.2. Thesis Aim ....................................................................................................................... 5
1.3. Methodology and Research Questions ............................................................................. 5
1.4. Thesis Structure ................................................................................................................ 9
2. The literature review on the impact of FDI on economic growth in the host
country ........................................................................................................................................ 11
2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 11
2.2. The Impacts of FDI on Economic Growth in the Host Country .................................... 11
2.2.1. Exogenous Growth Theory ......................................................................................12
2.2.2. Endogenous Growth Theory ...................................................................................13
2.3. The Direct Impact of FDI on Economic Growth ........................................................... 15
2.3.1. Macro-Economic Studies on the Overall FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis .................18
2.3.2. Micro-Economic Studies on the Technology Advances in FDI Firms ....................22
2.4. The Indirect Impact of FDI on Economic Growth ......................................................... 24
2.4.1. Empirical Studies of the Indirect Impact of FDI on Economic Growth .................35
V

2.4.1.1. Horizontal and Vertical Productivity Spillovers ..............................................35
2.4.1.2. Crowding-In/Out Effects ..................................................................................40
2.5. The Impact of Economic Growth on Attracting FDI................................................... 44
2.6. The Causal Relationship between FDI, DI and Economic Growth ............................ 47
2.7. Absorptive Capacity Factors .......................................................................................... 52
2.7.1. The Technology Gap ...............................................................................................52
2.7.2. Culture Differences .................................................................................................55
2.7.3. Other Macroeconomic Conditions ..........................................................................56
2.7.4. The Type of FDI Inflows .........................................................................................57
3. The Relationship between FDI, DI and GDP: Empirical Evidence from
Cointegration Time Series Techniques .............................................................................. 59
3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 59
3.2. FDI Inflows, DI and GDP: Pre-View of Existing Evidence .......................................... 62
3.2.1. Cross-Sectional Studies ...........................................................................................63
3.2.3. Cointegration-Panel Studies...................................................................................66
3.2.4. Time Series Studies and Cointegration-Time Series Studies .................................67
3.3. Econometric Methodology ............................................................................................. 72
3.4. Data and Variables ......................................................................................................... 76
3.4.1. Trends of Net FDI Inflow, DI and GDP Analysis ...................................................77
3.4.2. The Contributions of FDI to GDP and DI, and the Contributions of DI to GDP .....84
3.5. Estimation Method ......................................................................................................... 86
3.6. Estimation Results .......................................................................................................... 92
3.7. Time Series Cointegration Tests ................................................................................92
3.7.1. Unit Root Tests and Integration Order ..................................................................92
3.7.2. Cointegration Test ..................................................................................................95
VI

3.7.2.1. Selecting the Suitable Lag Length (K) of the VAR Model and the Suitable VAR
Model for Testing Cointegration .......................................................................................95
3.7.3. The Results from GDP Equation .............................................................................97
3.7.4. The Results from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Equation .............................103
3.7.5. The Results from Domestic Investment (DI) Equation ........................................107
3.8. Panel Data Cointegration Tests ...............................................................................111
3.8.1. Estimation Procedure and Results ........................................................................111
3.9. Conclusion ...............................................................................................................117
4. The Impact of the Host Country’s Absorptive Capacity on the FDI/Growth
Relationship ............................................................................................................................. 120
4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 120
4.2. An Overview of Existing Empirical Studies ................................................................ 122
4.3. Empirical Specification ................................................................................................ 131
4.4. Data and Variables ....................................................................................................... 137
4.5. Empirical Results ......................................................................................................... 139
4.6. Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................................................... 159
4.6.1. Empirical Results ..................................................................................................162
4.7. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 171
5. Foreign Capital, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth: The growth-
enhancing role of FDI and other types of foreign capital in developing countries
..................................................................................................................................................... 173
5.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 173
5.2. An Overview of Existing Studies ................................................................................. 174
5.2.1. Empirical evidence on the impact of specific types of foreign capital inflows on
economic growth .............................................................................................................176
VII

5.2.2. Empirical evidence on the impact of specific types of foreign capital inflows on
domestic investment ........................................................................................................179
5.3. Empirical Model........................................................................................................... 182
5.3.1. Growth Equation ...................................................................................................182
5.3.2. Domestic Investment Equation ..............................................................................183
5.3.3. The Complete Model .............................................................................................184
5.3.4. How do FDI and other types of foreign capital flow affect economic growth? ....186
5.4. Overview of the Data ................................................................................................... 187
5.5. Estimation Method ....................................................................................................... 190
5.5.1. The endogeneity test between Growth and DI ......................................................192
5.5.2. Testing the validity of instrumental variables .......................................................193
5.6. Estimation Results ........................................................................................................ 195
5.6.1. The impact of FDI and other types of foreign capital on economic growth .........200
5.7. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 203
6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 205
6.1. Summary of the Findings ............................................................................................. 207
6.2. Academic Contributions .............................................................................................. 209
6.3. Policy Implications ...................................................................................................... 212
Appendices ............................................................................................................................... 214
Appendix I ........................................................................................................................... 214
Appendix A .....................................................................................................................214
Appendix B .....................................................................................................................222
Appendix C .....................................................................................................................224
Appendix II ......................................................................................................................... 226
Appendix III ........................................................................................................................ 235
VIII

References ................................................................................................................................ 237