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Economic and Political Impediments to Middle East Peace: Critical Questions and Alternative Scenarios PDF

277 Pages·2000·1.707 MB·English
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INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY SERIES GeneralEditor: TimothyM. Shaw, Professor of Political Science and International Development Studies, and Director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Recent titles include: Pradeep Agrawal, Subir V. Gokarn, Veena Mishra, Kirit S. Parikh and Kunal Sen ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING IN EAST ASIA AND INDIA: Perspectives on Policy Reform Deborah Bräutigam CHINESE AID AND AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT: Exporting Green Revolution Steve Chan, Cal Clark and Danny Lam (editors) BEYOND THE DEVELOPMENTAL STATE: East Asia’s Political Economies Reconsidered Jennifer Clapp ADJUSTMENT AND AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA: Farmers, the State and the World Bank in Guinea Robert W. 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Underhill (editor) THE NEW WORLD ORDER IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Henry Veltmeyer, James Petras and Steve Vieux NEOLIBERALISM AND CLASS CONFLICT IN LATIN AMERICA: A Comparative Perspective on the Political Economy of Structural Adjustment Robert Wolfe FARM WARS: The Political Economy of Agriculture and the International Trade Regime International Political Economy Series Series Standing Order ISBN 978-0-333-71708-0 hardcover Series Standing Order ISBN 978-0-333-71110-1 paperback (outside North America only) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and one or both of the ISBNs quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England Economic and Political Impediments to Middle East Peace Critical Questions and Alternative Scenarios Edited by J. W. Wright, Jr. American Association for the Advancement of Science Diplomacy Fellow and Trade Policy Advisor, Office of Emerging Markets United States Agency for International Development and Laura Drake School of International Service American University Washington, DC Foreword by Queen Noor of Jordan First published in Great Britain 2000 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-39979-6 ISBN 978-0-333-99426-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780333994269 First published in the United States of America 2000 by ST. MARTIN’S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Economic and political impediments to Middle East peace : critical questions and alternative scenarios / edited by J.W. Wright, Jr. and Laura Drake ; foreword by Queen Noor of Jordan. p. cm. — (International political economy series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Middle East—Economic conditions—1979– 2. Africa, North– –Economic conditions. 3. Arab–Israeli conflict—1993– —Peace. I. Wright, J. W., Jr. II. Drake, Laura. III. Series. HC415.15.E247 1999 330.956—dc21 99–26119 CIP Selection and editorial matter ©J. W. Wright, Jr., and Laura Drake 2000 Foreword ©Queen Noor of Jordan 2000 Introduction and Chapter 7 ©J. W. Wright, Jr. 2000 Chapter 1 ©Laura Drake 2000 Chapters 2–6, 8–13 and Epilogue ©Macmillan Press Ltd 2000 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2000 978-0-333-67899-2 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 0LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 To those uncounted thousands who have sacrificed their lives or their freedom to make the Middle East a better place The editors and contributors to this volume wish to express their condo- lences to Queen Nour, the Royal Family and the people of Jordan for the loss of King Hussein. He was a great leader and a real force in the battle to achieve peace in the Middle East. We further dedicate this book to his memory. This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Tables ix List of Figures x Acknowledgments xi List of Abbreviations xiii Notes on the Contributors xv Foreword: The Face of Daunting Challenges Queen Noor of Jordan xix Map of the Middle East xxiv Introduction: Economic and Political Impediments to Middle East Peace J.W. Wright, Jr. 1 1 Implementing Netanyahu’s Political and Economic Programme: What are Israel’s Strategic Objectives for the Current Historical Phase? Laura Drake 10 2 What are the Prospects for Modernizing the Middle East Economies? Michael Field 32 3 The Arab–Israeli Peace Process: Can the Region Benefit from the Economics of Globalization? Emma C. Murphy 46 4 Is MENA a Region? The Scope for Regional Integration Mohamed A. El-Erian and Stanley Fischer 70 5 Will an Arab–Israeli Peace Bring a Trade Dividend? Elias H. Tuma 87 6 The Budgetary Consequences of Middle East Peace: What are the Economic Impacts and Causal Linkages? Robert E. Looney 99 vii viii Contents 7 Would Islamic Banks Help Lessen the Decline of Palestinian Banking? J.W. Wright, Jr. 119 8 Will the Arab–Israeli Peace Process Generate Increased Portfolio Investment in the Middle East? Rodney Wilson 141 9 The Middle East Peace Process: How is it Affecting Planning in the Cities and Regions in Jordan? Peter L. Doan 157 10 External Assistance to the Palestinian Economy: What Went Wrong? Barbara Balaj, Ishac Diwan and Bernard Philippe 174 11 The (Very) Political Economy of the West Bank and Gaza: What Lessons Should We Learn about Peace-building and Development Assistance? Rex Brynen 189 12 Civil Society Organizations in the Middle East: Can they Facilitate Socio-Economic Development during a Time of Transition? Peter Gubser 213 13 From Front State to Backyard? Syria and the Risks of Regional Peace Volker Perthes 225 Epilogue: Critical Questions and Alternative Scenarios William Stoltzfus 241 Index 247 List of Tables 3.1 Scientists and technicians per 10 000 Workers 57 3.2 Civilian R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP 57 3.3 Principal Israeli imports 59 3.4 Value of manufactured exports, 1993 64 4.1 Intra-regional exports, 1990–2 77 4.2 MENA countries: trade patterns, 1989–94 78 5.1 Conceivable economic cooperation sub-groups 98 6.1 Defence spending: Middle East and North Africa, 1985–95 107 6.2 Defence expenditure, causal linkages with the macroeconomy: Israel, Jordan and Syria 109 6.3 Defence expenditure, causal linkages with the macroeconomy: Egypt 111 6.4 Defence expenditure, causal linkages with the macroeconomy: Saudi Arabia 112 8.1 Basic growth and development indicators 142 8.2 United States economic assistance to the Middle East 143 8.3 United States military assistance to the Middle East 144 8.4 Top-20 Middle Eastern companies, by capitalization 146 8.5 Companies listed on the Cairo stock-market 150 9.1 Tourist arrivals in Jordan, by nationality, 1992–5 160 9.2 Increase in tourist expenditures, receipts and percentage contribution to GNP 161 9.3 Case study: city populations, by year, and growth rates, by period 166 9.4 Visits by foreign tourists to selected municipalities in Jordan, 1994–5 167 9.5 Construction since January 1994 168 9.6 Staff assignments of municipal employees 170 10.1 Emergency assistance programme and actual performance 176 11.1 Donor pledges until July 1995 191 11.2 Donor commitments and disbursements 191 ix

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