Table Of Content

Case Studies in Policy Making 11th Edition Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2008 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2008 to 00-00-2008 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Case Studies in Policy Making. 11th Edition 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval War College,686 Cushing Road,Newport,RI,02841-1207 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 276 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 List of Contributing Authors Brent L. Boston David T. Buckwalter Shawn W. Burns Robert L. Carney Donald K. Hansen Kevin L. Little Douglas E. Mason Laurence L. McCabe Daniel R. Miller Richard J. Norton John Segerson Andrew L. Stigler Dana E. Struckman George E. Teague Larry M. Thompson Clemson G. Turregano Randy G. Wietman STATES NAVAL NITED WAROC U LL EHT EGE VIRIBUSMARIVICTORIA Case Studies in Policy Making 11th Edition Edited by Hayat Alvi-Aziz and Stephen F. Knott NAVAL WAR COLLEGE, NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND Opinions,conclusions,andrecommendationsexpressedorimpliedwithinaresolelythose oftheauthors,anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheNavalWarCollege,theDe- partmentofDefenseoranyparticularServicethereof,oranyothergovernmentagencyor privateorganization. Permissions: To obtain permission to reproduce material for commercial purposes, contact the editor foreachuse.Materialmaybefreelyreproducedforacademicorothernoncommercialuse; however,itisrequestedthattheauthorandtheNavalWarCollegebecreditedandthatthe editorbeinformed. Sendrequestsforpublicationandreproductioninformationto:NationalSecurityDecision MakingDepartment,NavalWarCollege,686CushingRoad,Newport,RI,02841-1207,or phone:(401)841-3540. Firsteditionpublished1994 Eleventheditionpublished2008 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Casestudiesinpolicymaking/editedbyHayatAlvi-AzizandStephenF.Knott. p.cm. ISBN978-1-884733-53-6 1.UnitedStates—Militarypolicy—Decisionmaking—Casestudies. 2.Nationalsecurity— UnitedStates—Decisionmaking—Casestudies. I.Alvi-Aziz,Hayat. II.Knott,StephenF. UA23.C2952008 355(cid:2).033573—dc22 2008028368 Contents Preface ................................................................................vii PolicyMakingandProcess:AGuidetoCaseAnalysis RICHARDJ.NORTON ......................................................................1 The1973Arab-IsraeliWar DAVIDT.BUCKWALTER,REVISEDBYBRENTL.BOSTON.......................................7 Haiti RICHARDJ.NORTON.....................................................................29 AntipersonnelLandmines:AU.S.Policy-MakingMinefield GEORGEE.TEAGUE,REVISEDBYSHAWNW.BURNS,ADDENDUMBYDANIELR.MILLER..........49 Kosovo ANDREWL.STIGLER......................................................................67 Colombia:MissionImpossible? DAVIDT.BUCKWALTER,REVISEDBYDANAE.STRUCKMAN...................................79 TheSteelTrap LAURENCEL.MCCABE,ADDENDUMBYCLEMSONG.TURREGANO, REVISEDBYROBERTL.CARNEY..........................................................103 BetweenIraqandaHardPlace:FutureU.S.PolicywithIran RICHARDJ.NORTONANDKEVINL.LITTLE,REVISEDBYDOUGLASE.MASON ANDLARRYM.THOMPSON ..............................................................113 TheCaseofNorthKorea RICHARDJ.NORTON....................................................................133 MarineOne DOUGLASE.MASON.....................................................................145 “WeHaveSomePlanes”:11September2001 RICHARDJ.NORTON....................................................................151 CubaafterCastro—WhatNext? DONALDK.HANSEN ....................................................................187 HurricaneKatrina RANDYG.WIETMANANDLARRYM.THOMPSON,REVISEDBYJOHNSEGERSON................211 AftertheCedarRevolution:America’sPolicyinLebanon ANDREWL.STIGLER ....................................................................241 TheUnitedStatesandRussia:RekindlingtheColdWar DANAE.STRUCKMAN ...................................................................249 AbouttheContributors...............................................................263 Preface Inafrictionlessenvironment,therewouldbenoneedtoexaminecomplexnationalsecuritycases.Infact, therewouldbenocomplexcasestostudy.Thepresidentorleaderofalargeorganizationwouldsimplyim- plementhisvisionorgrandstrategyandmoveontothenextissue.Butthatisnottheworldinwhichwelive. Thedecisionmakeratthenationalstrategicleveloperatesinaverycomplexenvironmentwherethecon- straintsofinternationallaws,rules,norms,anddifferingideologiesexist.Ifthoseelementsarenotdifficult enoughtocontendwith,thedecisionmakerisfurtherconstrainedbyanentrenchedbureaucracy,influen- tialpersonalities,themedia,Congress,andhisowncognitivelimitations.Tooperateknowledgeablyinthis environmentandrecognizetheforcesatplayinthedecision-makingarena,theNationalSecurityandDeci- sionMaking(NSDM) graduates willbebetterprepared fortheirnext assignments, whethertheyare ona majorserviceorcombatantcommanderstafforworkingwithintheinteragencystructure. Thecasestudiescompiledforthisbookwereallwrittenbyaccomplishedscholarsandnationalsecurity professionalsandhighlightthechallengesofmakingpolicyinaworldoffriction.TheContemporaryStaff Environment(CSE)andPolicyMakingandProcess(PMP)courseswillusethesecasesinseminarsdesigned to uncoverthe various elements that impact decisionmaking and cause organizations to respond the way theydo.Wearepleasedtointroduceanewcasetothis11theditionprinting:“TheU.S.andRussia:Rekin- dlingtheColdWar,”byColDanaStruckman,whichexaminestheincreasinglychillyrelationshipbetween theUnitedStatesandRussiaanddiscussesthevariousactors,rules,andtoolsthatwilllikelyinfluencefuture U.S.policywiththatresurgentnation.ThislatesteditionalsoincludesCDRJohnSegerson’srevisedversion ofCDRRandyWeitmanandLTCLarryThompson’s“HurricaneKatrina”casestudy. The11theditionprintingofthisbookcouldnothavehappenedwithoutthededicationandhardworkof manyindividualswhoarededicatedtoournationalsecurity.WewouldliketoacknowledgeDr.JoanJohnson- Freese,DepartmentChair,forherstewardshipoverNSDM,andProfessorAlShimkus,CourseDirectorfor CSEandPMP,forhiswiseguidance.WewouldalsoliketoacknowledgeandthankMs.PeggyJones,Aca- demicCoordinatoroftheNSDMdepartment,Mr.KenDeRouin,Mr.AlbertFassbender,andMs.Shannon Colefortheirexperttypesetting,proofreading,andeditorialadvice,andMs.CristinaHartleyoftheNWC VisualCommunicationsDivisionforthecoverdesign. HayatAlvi-Aziz StephenF.Knott AssociateProfessors NSDM Policy Making and Process: A Guide to Case Analysis RICHARDJ.NORTON INTRODUCTION F ew decisions can be more difficult for a U.S. president than to commit military forcestopotentialcombatsituations.Thestakesinsuchdecisionsarealwayshigh. Loss of U.S. and other lives, the expenditure of vast amounts of resources, and damagetonationalprestigeareamongthepossiblenegativeoutcomesofsuchde- cisions.Otherdecisionsmadeatthislevel,suchastheselectionofaparticularpolicy,com- mitment to procurement of certain military capabilities and weapons systems, and the signingoftreaties,involvestakesthatarealmostasgreatasthoseinvolvingtheuseofforce. Thereisawidespreadtendencytobelievethatdecisionsofthisnaturearederivedfroma coolly analytical process, in which the costs of particular courses of actions are weighed againstanticipatedgainstonationalsecurity.Indeed,manyoftheformaldecision-making mechanismsinthefederalgovernmentweredesignedtofacilitateandsupportthissortof cost-benefitsdrivendecisionmaking. But scholars who have studied national security decision making have learned that such calculated decisions are more the ideal than the real. Some analysts believe deci- sionspredominatelyarereachedtoprotecttheinterestofthegreatestablishedgovern- ment bureaucracies, such as the departments of Defense, State, and Treasury. Others see the decision-making process dominated by powerful individuals such as Henry Kissinger,ZbignewBrezinski,JamesBaker,MadeleineAlbright,ColinPowell,andCarl Rove—allofwhomhaveenjoyedtheearofoneormorepresidents.Stillotherscholarsar- guenationalsecuritydecisionscannotbeunderstoodwithoutunderstandingthepersonal beliefs, values, norms, and biases of the senior decision maker. It has even been argued thatsomedecisionsareforcedontheU.S.governmentastheresultofirresistibleinputs generatedeitherdomesticallyorinternationally. StudentsattheNavalWarCollegewillbeinvolvedasparticipantsinthenationalsecurity environment and as part of the decision-making process. Thus, an understanding of these forcesandthevariouswaysnationalsecuritydecisionsaremadeisanessentialpartofourstu- dents’ education. The Department of National Security Decision Making (NSDM) and the PolicyMakingandProcess(PMP)courseseektoprovideourstudentswithanunderstanding oftheorganizational,political,andbehavioralinfluencesonsuchdecisionsaswellasknowl- edgeoftheformalprocessesthroughwhichnationalsecuritydecisionsaremade.