DTIC ADA517322: The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War

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THE IRAQ EFFECT
The Middle East After the Iraq War
Frederic Wehrey Dalia Dassa Kaye Jessica Watkins
Jeffrey Martini Robert A. Guffey
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The Iraq effect : the Middle East after the Iraq War / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4788-5 (pbk.)
1. United States—Foreign relations—Middle East. 2. Middle East—Foreign
relations—United States. 3. Iraq War, 2003–—Influence. 4. Middle East—
Strategic aspects. I. Wehrey, Frederic M.
DS63.2.U5I73 2010
956.7044'31—dc22
2009053859
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Preface
The research reported here was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, Direc-
tor of Operational Planning and Strategy (A5X), Headquarters United
States Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Pro-
gram of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a fiscal year 2008 study “Iraq
Effects: Emerging Threats to U.S. Interests in the Greater Middle East.”
This monograph should be of interest to U.S. security policymakers,
military planners, and analysts and observers of regional affairs in the
Middle East and Central and South Asia.
The goal of this work is to advance understanding of the regional
implications of the Iraq War by offering an assessment of trends,
threats, and opportunities in the Middle East, drawing from exten-
sive field-based research and primary sources. The monograph covers
balance-of-power realignments, focusing on Iranian activism, Arab
diplomatic disarray, and Turkey’s new prominence; shifting local per-
ceptions of U.S. credibility and the increased roles of such extraregional
powers as China and Russia; the war’s effects on sectarianism, ethnic
activism, and political reform; and how the conflict has shaped future
terrorist strategy, ideology, and tactics. By referring to an “Iraq effect,”
we do not suggest that the war is the sole driver behind these impor-
tant regional dynamics. Rather, we use the expression as a framework
or a lens to capture the ways in which key U.S. policy challenges—the
stability of pro-U.S. regimes, terrorism, and Iranian power, to name a
few—have been affected by the Iraq War, either directly or indirectly.
iii
iv The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo-
ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
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independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
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Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
http://www.rand.org/paf
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures and Table ................................................................ ix
Summary .......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv
Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly ................................ 2
Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of
These Shifts .................................................................... 4
The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our
Analyses of Current Regional Trends ....................................... 7
The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate
and Prepare for These New Realities .......................................10
This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect .....12
Organization of This Monograph ...............................................14
Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and
Fieldwork ......................................................................15
CHAPTER TWO
An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balance
of Power ......................................................................17
Traditional Balance-of-Power Dynamics Are Shifting to Non-Arab
States ...........................................................................18
The Rise of Iran: The Big Winner of the Iraq Conflict? ......................21
v
vi The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War
The Arab Response: More Hedging Than Balancing ........................ 26
The Two Faces of Iran in the Arab World .................................. 26
Suspicion of Iran Does Not Necessarily Translate into Pro-American
Positions .................................................................... 30
Regional Ambivalence Toward Both Iran and the United States
Undermines U.S. Attempts to Create an Anti-Iranian Alliance .....32
The Iraq War Has Reinforced and Created Strategic Challenges
for Israel ...................................................................... 38
Iran Has Become Israel’s Key Regional Concern .......................... 38
Potential Instability in Jordan Is a Further Concern ...................... 40
Israeli Views on an American Withdrawal Hinge on Perceptions
About Whether a Withdrawal Will Strengthen or Weaken
U.S. Regional Influence ...................................................41
The Iraq War Has Complicated Turkey’s Strategic Relations with
the United States and Iran ................................................. 43
The Conflict Exacerbated the Kurdish Challenge for Turkey ............ 43
The Conflict Has Led Turkey Toward Greater Regional Activism
and More Cooperation with Iran ........................................45
Turkey’s Economic Interests Provide Opportunities for Convergence
with U.S. Interests ........................................................ 46
Conclusion .........................................................................47
CHAPTER THREE
New Challenges to American Influence: Chinese and Russian
Roles in the Middle East...................................................49
Perceptions of Eroding U.S. Credibility ....................................... 50
Changing Extraregional Roles ...................................................55
China .............................................................................55
Russia .............................................................................62
Conclusion .........................................................................73
CHAPTER FOUR
Domestic Reverberations of the War: Internal Challenges to
Regime Stability ............................................................75
The Iraq War Is Not the Main Driver of Increased Sectarian
Tensions ...................................................................... 77
Contents vii
Sectarianism Has Spread in the Gulf, but Regimes Are Mostly
to Blame .................................................................... 77
Fears of Sunni-to-Shi‘a Conversions Suggest Deeper Problems
in the Levant and Egypt ..................................................83
Local Dynamics, Not Iraq, Drive Most Sectarian Strife in Lebanon ....85
Tribalism in Iraq May Animate Tribal Activism in Neighboring
States .......................................................................... 88
Developments in Iraq Have Inspired Kurdish Ambitions in Turkey,
Syria, and Iran ............................................................... 92
Iraqi Refugees Present One of the Most Significant Long-Term
Challenge......................................................................95
Conclusion: The Iraq War May Ultimately Strengthen Neighboring
Regimes but Not the State ................................................ 101
CHAPTER FIVE
The Iraq War and the Future of Terrorism: Lessons Learned
and New Strategic Trends ............................................... 105
Existing Reports Present Contradictory Evidence on the Net Effects
of the Iraq War ............................................................. 106
The Iraq Conflict Has Boosted al-Qa‘ida’s Recruitment but Reduced
Its Long-Term Base of Popular Support ................................. 109
Iraq Has Offered an Attractive Narrative of Resistance to Aggrieved
Muslims ................................................................... 109
But al-Qa‘ida Has Failed to Translate Popular Support for
Resistance in Iraq into Broad Backing for Its Global Jihad Bid .... 111
Al-Qa‘ida in Iraq’s Violent Tactics Have Alienated Muslim Publics ... 113
Al-Qa‘ida’s Experience in Iraq Has Exposed Its Ideology and
Strategy ...................................................................... 115
Al-Qa‘ida’s Demonization of Iran and the Shi‘a World Is
Backfiring ................................................................. 116
Al-Qa‘ida Is Losing the Battle Between Nationalist and
Transnationalist Agendas ............................................... 120
Palestine as al-Qa‘ida’s Misguided New Raison d’Être ................... 122
AQI’s Franchise Model Has Arguably Sidelined the Role of
Ideology ................................................................... 125