DTIC ADA427470: Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions Toward a Long-Term Strategy

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by  Defense Technical Information Center

Assuring Access-in
Key Strategic Regions |

Toward. a Long-Term: Strategy.
Assuring Access in
Key Strategic Regions

Toward a Long-Term Strategy

MG-112-A

ERIC ¥. LARSON, DEREK EATON, PAUL ELRICK,
THEODORE KARASIK, ROBERT KLEIN, SHERRILL LINGEL,
BRIAN NICHIPORUK, ROBERT UY, JOHN ZAVADIL

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FM eoceone 20041108 085
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a
Preface

"This is the nal seport of a Hiscal Year 2002 stady for dhe U.S. Army
Depucy Chief of Sta’ for Operations (G-3), tiled “Anci-Anti Acces:
Tsing Regional Access for Furure U.S. Land Force,” which
coxarnincd poser al adversaries? arti-gccoss stamegfes and potential
U.S. earner a these saris

‘The purpose of the sud wa twolald, Fis, it aimed eo smppert
xy Arusy’s developuvat of unnislouned Iand Movees by idencifying
agcess requicements, pocensha’ antiaocess theears and cammers. and
coalition/lliance dependences ducing dhe 2003 2012 cow peried
"This cine frame way chosen becuuse i i the fucus uf eurrens Auay
planning and because itis nearly impossible to Lave mnuch cetsiiaty
shout poconcial adversary capebilities beyoad thac petiod, Second, ie
‘cansiders operational and techniced means for avescoung wt-avvess
thrczes. This report summarizes the main Endings of te steady; one
unpnblhed research aboue the study has azo been done, including
the falling rex

ove ja Pale Scenario,” 20035

ovcis in a SWA Scenario,” 20035

“Angi oor in PRC: Tagan Seonann,” 2003: and

“Anti Acces Strategies: A Quantitative Aualysis of Military
Methods for Preventing, Delaying, ull Degeading US, Eotoe
Builds” 2003,
‘The project was spontoned by the Ollie of che Deputy Chief of
Sealf G3 (Operations aed Plans}, US. Aung. The project was eon-
nected in the Strategy, Doccrine, and Resonvccs Progra of the
RAND Arroyo Center. ‘Uhe Arroyo Center is a federally funded
resatch and developincat center sponsored by the U.S. Army

For more inforsustion an RAND Arioyo Center, coneaet the
Direceor of Operctions (¢elephone 310-393-0411, extension 64195
FAX [phone]; e-mail Marcy [email protected]), ot visir
Arroyo's web ste at btepalfwrerand organ.
Contents

Prine i
guns and Tae ie
Sunmay.. pone seo
‘Acknowledgment... os. en
Gloisxy sil
Introdtction.

‘Orgstizaion of Tht Repo.

Analytic Approach 7
Sone Conoeptya Boiling Blo 7
A Definin or Aa-Atean Sete 3

The Aovers Game vsnssenrnse sisi 8
A Sozed Represenation ofa Deployment. 2B
CChatncesiaaion of Potercial Anti-Acces Vulnerable B

(Quantcetine Analysis of Military Ui my

Sernnar-Sqe Gaming... . 15

SauthweatAainn Theater: Am Feng Game. 9

Overview of the Game 19
‘The Scena. 220

‘Across, Objectives, COND, and Capabilities >
1s Asus ney Strtogi Ragians Toward a Long Tenn Sateny

Findings. . 6
Key Acces Ise 26
hice of Grmtese Concern een 30
(Other Threats Connidere. 7 3H

Ipleaiogs fr Reg anal Commande assesses 3
"Acvess Requires on
Options for Cocamanes. CENTCOM 38

‘The Pacific Theater A PRO-Taiwan Cae a

Overriew of dhe Girne a
oc Seenatio w
eins, Objectives CONOMs, and Capabies. ede

Fralige ie 230
Key Recess Iss 23
“Thocats of Greate Concern 53

‘nly Theats Considered

Iplations for Repural Conan 8
‘cess Reguierea : pean SD
Options fete PACOM Caammander. a

Fnvepean Theates A Rusia Bales Gann.
Overview of te Gare
The Scenarin
‘Actors, Okjnver, CONS, and Capabilities
Bindings. poe
ey Accs
“Teas of Greer Concer.
‘Orhan Feats Comics.
Iplcaiois for Regional Cosamanders.
‘Aci Regrivemet
(Oprinns forthe Combnander of FUCOM.

[Eatin Ameria ad the Casthiveas vec eeneeeee 8
Overview of hs Games. sss
The Scenarios ws
ocgnal Adverse n Lats Attica due Cabocan a
Indigenous Cris al Teron Geen 9
Nonindigenous Gueril sad Terrtst Groups 50
ejoral Ganventional Migr nencrenene 31
Findings... 92
‘These of Greatest Concer ssresesou 3
Jneplcaions tor Regions! Commands orcs 96
‘Acces Requirement. 34
‘Opvions forthe Commander of SOUTTTCOM... 298
“What the Games Revealed About Ant-Access Thoeats 7
Auncesss This of Greatest Consatn 100
Blase al Cruise Mile Thee wy Bases Jeers,
cal Papas 101
exer Range Surfin ro Ae isles: Thoea 00 Air
Mobilise
Arothip Mises, rack Submarines, and Sea Mini:
Threats co Sealift. pce US
“WHla-Cand Capailires 107

“Toward a Sieacegy for Assuring Acces. 18
Vesatiene Acie see uy
Assuring Partners and Alles ss con itty
Deoening Adversaies ne
‘Mainesining and Developing New Options sect 12
Tsien in SED by U.S. Payal Alin 16
rs am Want Bette. 26
Daplaying sued Defending “7
Inproring, Sic, at BuilBing Aga errno nee ny
ProvoaingHotors ant Buss af Operation vA

he Quon uf Ci . 9
‘Covilasions aed Lmplicaion: aa
Implications fr mteligonce Nesters rt
SteargicInagence r 1a
{Gpetcional Miltary Inedigre re 183
Ted Tncligenee. 134
Commercial Telligece 135
Inaplensinns for Trarmantcion Marsgementes sense 136
vat

Bibliography
Figures and Tables

Figures
2.1. Overview af he Access Cae

2.2 “The Adserey? Adapive Site forts Aaarse Game

ZA. US. Adapuive Stage fot ve Acces Ga

2A. A Style Repsesetatinn oF a Deplagmene

3.1, SexRouts for « Deployewen othe Kuwait Theater
‘oF Opertions ene

SL A Siracege for sung Access.

Toles
2.1, Classification of And Accers Targets
122. refered Means of Aracking Anti-Aecese Target Cluzs,

116