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MICHAEL PILLSBURY C H I N A Debates Future the Security E n v i r o n m e n t Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 2000 N/A - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER China Debates the Future Security Environment 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Michael /Pillsbury 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION National Defense Univesrity Institute for National Strategic Studies Fort REPORT NUMBER McNair Washington, DC 20319 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE UU 420 unclassified unclassified unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Advance pratse for China Debates the Future Security Environment "In this carefully researched and well crafted .work, Dr. Michael Pillsbury has made another important contribution to our understanding of China's strategic thinking. Those who blithely assume that optimistic American views of global trends are normal and widely shared will be startled and educated. Contemporary Chinese predictions about Japan's ascendance and American decline will appear famalar but strangely anachronistic to those who recall the largely discredited American decltntst school of the late Cold War Other views will seem less famatar and even more disturbing, e.g., ideas about the high likelihood of fairly large-scale "local wars" in the next few decades, and the belief that the weaker local p{m2ers can prevaa over stronger, more distant ones If the former adopt innovative and active military strategies." --Thomas J. Christensen, Massachusetts Institute of Tehnology "The international politics of the twenty-first century will be shaped to a very considerable degree .~ the evolving relationship between the United States and the People's Republic" of China. Yet we know surprisingly little about how Chtna's top strategists think about us, about themselves, and about thetr place in the world. In this fascinating and disturbing book, Michael Pillsbury uses hundreds of recent Chinese books and articles to shed light on these critically important questions. Essential reading for anyone interested in the future of lS.-CHtna relations." --Aaron .L Friedberg, Princeton University "This volume provides a useful reference for poltcymakers and scholars alike. It offers an extensive cross-section of Chinese viewpoints and provides a useful map of institutions, individuals, and publications which together form a core part of contemporary (Thinese thinking on international security affairs." --Bates Gill,The Brookings Institution "Mike Pillsbury has done a terrlftc Job presenting a range of Chinese voices and focusing our attention on how a combination of ancient historical analogies and traditional realpoltttk analysis tnfimms many public argu- ments about security today. Ptllsbury's rich database sets an analytical agenda critical to a more nuanced understanding of China: How similar or different are U.S. and Chinese assessments? How does each construct images of the other? How do language and metaphor constrain Chinese debates? How authoritative and influential are individual Chinese institute analysts?" --Alastair Iain Johnston, Harvard University "This book illustrates very well that open sources can be used to understand crucial intelligence issues like Chinese strategic thinking. For our long-term policy of engaging China, we need to understand Chinese strategic percep- tions. Mike Ptllsbury's book is a major effort in that direction." --The Honorable .'J Robert Kerrey, Senate Intelligence Committee "Dr. Pillsbury has performed a public service by highlighting what Chtna's experts are saying about the Middle Kingdom's security policies and expectations and-- equally interesting--who they see as a threat to those expectations (namely, the United States). It is time we stopped pretending China is our strategic partner and focused instead on what the Chinese are saying themselves. This book should be "must reading'for the next President of the United States and his security advisers." --The HonorableTrent Lott, Senate Majority Leader "Based on the reading of thousands of Chinese documents and on hundreds of hours of Chinese-language interviews, Palsbury's ingenious account is the best book on Chinese military and strategic thinking of recent years." --ArthurWaldron, University of Pennsylvania CHINA Debates the Future Security Environment Don't debate... Once debate begins, things become complicated --Deng Xiaoping Seek truth from facts --Deng Xiaoping quoting Mao Zcdong The inferior can defeat the superior --Fu Quanyou, Chief of Staff of the People's Liberation Army For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, CD 8239-20402 C H I N A D e b a t e s Future the Security Environment MICHAEL PILLSBURY NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20O0 The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is a major component of the National Defense University (NDU), which operates under the direct supervision of the President of NDU. It conducts strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and unified commanders in chief; supports national strategic components of NDU academic programs; and provides outreach to other governmental agencies and the broader national security community. The Publication Directorate--under the imprint of NDU Press--issues books, monographs, reports, and occasional papers on national security strategy, defense policy, and national military strategy that reflect the output of NDU research and academic programs. NDU Press publications are available online at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/press/nduphp.html. Inquiries and comments may be directed to [email protected]. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. NDI5 Press publications are sold by the II.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. You may also order books through the GPO website at http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/sale.html. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pillsbury, Michael, 1945 - China debates the future security environment / Michael Pillsbury,. p. cm/ ISBN 1-57906-024-2 .1 China--Military policy. 2. National security'---China. .3 World politics--1989- I. Title UA835.P55 1999 355'.033051----dc21 99-26623 CIP First printing, January 2000 X CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................. xv PROLOGUE ............................................. xxxv . THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE ......................... 3 The Current Assessment, 1986-99 ............................ 3 Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986 ............................. 9 Revisionist Multipolarity ................................... 13 Challenging the Orthodox View ......................... 13 The Orthodox Counterattack ........................... 15 Techniques for Showing Dissent ........................... 17 Differences Within the Orthodox Camp ...................... 21 Post-Kosovo Debate ..................................... 25 Shanghai's Elaborate Studies ............................... 29 Fifty-Year Structures ............ .......................... 33 Future Wars ............................................ 37 Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars ...................... 37 Sources of Wars ...................................... 41 Deng Xiaoping Thought ............................... 53 China's Role in Multipolarity ............................... 54 Findings ............................................... 55 The Basic Framework ................................. 55 Debates ............................................. 56 Regional Wars ....................................... 59 . AaMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE .......................... 63 Failure to Implement the RMA ............................. 65 Future Military Weaknesses ................................ 70 Weakness in Logistics ..................................... 73 North Korea Can Defeat America ........................... 75 Weaknesses in the Gulf War ............................... 76 U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities .......................... 83 Overall U.S. Decline ...................................... 85 Loss of Allies ........................................... 88 Self-Prophecy of Decline .................................. 97 xi