ebook img

DTIC ADA245199: Measuring Benefits of Manpower, Personnel, and Training (MPT) Research and Development PDF

60 Pages·2.5 MB·English
Save to my drive
Quick download
Download
Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.

Preview DTIC ADA245199: Measuring Benefits of Manpower, Personnel, and Training (MPT) Research and Development

I, J AL-CR-1 991-0007 A 199 AD-A245 MEASURING BENEFITS OF MANPOWER, PERSONNEL, AND TRAINING (MPT) A RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT R OTt , S Jonathan C. Fast -D Bruce H. Dunson T S Rebecca Wortman tL-CT Brice M. Stone AN29 199 0 Metrica, Incorporated A 8301 Broadway, Suite 215 N San Antonio, TX 78209 G Larry T. Looper Sheree K. Engquist, Capt, USAF L HUMAN RESOURCES DIRECTORATE MANPOWER AND PERSONNEL RESEARCH DIVISION Brooks Air Force Base, TX 78235-5000 B 0 R January 1992 A Final Paper for Period July 1988 - November 1991 T 0 R y Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 92-02175 9 2 1 2 7 1 0 0III IlIHIllIII I i AIR FORCE SYSTEMS COMMAND BROOKS AIR FORCE BASE, TEXAS 78235-5000 NOTICES This technical paper is published as received and has not been edited by the technical editing staff of the Armstrong Laboratory. When Government drawings, specifications, or other data are used for any purpose other than in connection with a definitely Government-related procurement, the United States Government incurs no responsibility or any obligation whatsoever. The fact that the Government may have formulated or in any way supplied the said drawings, specifications, or other data, is not to be regarded by implication, or otherwise in any manner construed, as licensing the holder, or any other person or corporation; or as conveying any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented invention that may in any way be related thereto. The Office of Public Affairs has reviewed this paper, and it is releasable to the National Technical Information Service, where it will be avlilo -'- le general public, including foreign nationals. This paper has been reviewed and is appn LARRY T. LOOPER WILLIAM E. Al v _ irector Project Scientist Manpower and Personnel Division ROGER W. ALFORD, Lt Col, USAF Chief, Manpower and Personnel Researzh Division J Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, incuding the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering aid mintaing the data needed, and completing and rewewig the colec1ion of in m n. Send comrnra rdng this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for information Operations and Reports 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188), Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 13. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED January 1992 Final Report - July 1988 - November 1991 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Measuring Benefits of Manpower, Personnel, and Training (MPT) Research C - F41689-88-D-0251 and Development PE - 62205F PR - 7719 TA - 20 6. AUTHOR(S) Jonathan C. Fast Brice M. Stone WU - 14 Bruce H. Dunson Larry T. Looper Rebecca Wortman Sheree K. Engquist 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Metrica, Incorporated 8301 Broadway, Suite 215 San Antonio, TX 78209 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAMES(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY Armstrong Laboratory REPORT NUMBER Human Resources Directorate AL-CR-1 991-0007 Manpower and Personnel Research Division Brooks Air Force Base, TX 78235-5000 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Armstrong Laboratory Technical Monitor: Larry T. Looper, (512) 536-3648 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13.ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) The Air Force is constantly trying to develop new or improve existing tools to increase the efficiency in the way personnel life cycle resources are managed. One metric, commonly used, is based on utility. This research produced a utility assessment technology to aid decision makers. This technology involves the process of identifying, measuring, and combining attributes to create an explicit value structure to form a basis for evaluating MPT research projects and selecting the most beneficial and cost effective portfolio of MPT research efforts Four different techniques were evaluated and compared, those being utility analysis, cost benefit analysis, production functions, and decision theory. The research identified cost benefit analysis and decision analysis as being most applicable to MPT research projects. . / 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES ost benefit analysis decision theory utility assessment. 62 - decision assessment , decision analysis 16. PRICE CODE . 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 118. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION I1O9 FSEACU RITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REUPOnRcTla ssified I1 1.OF THUISn PcAlaGsEs ified Inc~s C ifi UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Fv 2-89) Prescibed by ANSI Std Z39-18 290-102 II ________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS Page SUM MA RY ........... ............................... 1 I. INTRODUCTION .................................. 1 Technical Approach ................................ 2 Utility Assessment ................................ 2 Step 1. Identify the Perspective from Which Utility Is to be Assessed ........................... 3 Step 2. Determine the Scope of the Problem and Identify the Overall Objective of the Utility Assessment Situation . 3 Step 3. Identify the Set of Alternatives to be Evaluated ...... 3 Step 4. Determine the Attributes on Which the Alternatives Are to be Assessed .......................... 3 Step 5. Develop Measures for Each Attribute .............. 3 Step 6. Choose an Assessment Model .................... 4 Step 7. Evaluate Each Alternative Using the Assessment M odel . ............................... 4 Step 8. Select the Best Alternative or Rank Order the Alternatives ............................ 4 II. DESCRIPTION OF EVALUATIVE TECHNIQUES ............... 4 Utility Analysis... ................................ 4 Production Function ................................ 5 The Effect of R&D in the Production Function ............... 6 Key Issues Identified in Past Research .................... 6 Analysis of MPT R&D at the Aggregate Level ............... 7 Steps to Estimating the Production Function of MPT R&D .... 8 Cost Benefit Analysis ............................... 8 Valuation of Benefits and Costs for MPT Research and Development ................................ 9 Enumeration of Project Benefits ........................ 10 Enumeration of Project Costs ......................... 11 Decision to Perform or Abandon the Project ............... 11 Decision Analysis . ................................. 12 III. APPLICATION OF TECHNIQUES ......................... 12 Development of the Assessment Model ........................ 12 Utility Analysis ............................... 12 Pre-selection ............................. 12 Post-selection ................................ 13 Data Requirements ............................ 13 Model Specifications ............................ 13 iii Page Production Function ................................ 13 Cost Benefit Analysis .................................... 14 Decision Analysis ...... ................................ 19 IV. ANALYSIS RESULTS .............................. 23 Sensitivity Analysis ................................. 23 Utility Analysis ............................... 23 Cost Benefit Analysis ........................... 26 Decision Analysis .............................. 27 Comparison of Output of Each Technique ..................... 29 D iscussion ................................ 31 Utility Analysis ............................... 31 Production Function ............................ 32 Cost Benefit Analysis ........................... 33 Net Benefits Versus the Benefit to Cost Ratio ............. 34 Uncertainty in the Environment .................... .... 35 Evaluating the Flow of Future Returns and Costs ......... ... 35 Valuation of Benefits and Costs ...................... 36 Decision Analysis .............................. 36 Accumulation of Data ......................... 37 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................. 37 REFERENCES .......... .............................. 40 APPENDIX A: SIMULATED DATA FOR FOUR TECHNIQUES ........ 42 APPENDIX B: MODEL SPECIFICATIONS ......................... 47 APPENDIX C: FINAL VALUES FOR UTILITY ...................... 50 Aooession For -NTIS CPAH GIo DTIC TAF 0 J . C "' o By _ D st r - t.jC, orn/ Ava iC0 11 ty Codes iv D i '11- and/or iv Dist Spoolal LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 ANOVA Results for Pre-selection Utility Analysis Index ............ 25 2 ANOVA Results for Post-selection Utility Analysis Index ........... 25 3 ANOVA Results for Cost/Benefit Analysis Index .................. 27 4 ANOVA Results for Decision Analysis Index .................... 29 5 Rank Order Correlations .............................. 30 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Cost Benefit Analysis ............................... 15 2 Decision Theory Analysis ................................ 20 V PREFACE The work documented in this report is a component of the Quality Force Models unit of the Manpower and Personnel Division's manpower and force management systems research and development program. It was accomplished as part of Project 7719, Force Acquisition and Distribution Systems and Task 771920, Manpower and Personnel Models. The tool will improve the conduct of manpower, personnel, and training research, and allow personnel managers and force planners to make more informed resource allocation decisions to achieve the Air Force's mission. vi LIST OF ACRONYMS AFHRL Air Force Human Resources Laboratory AFHPSP Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship Program AFQT Armed Forces Qualifying Test AFROTC Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps AFS Air Force Specialty AFSC Air Force Specialty Code AI Artificial Intelligence ANOVA Analysis of Variance ARPTT Air Refueling Part Task Trainer ASVAB Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery ATC Air Traiiiig Command BMT Basic Military Trainin- CAT Computerized Adaptive Testing CBA Cost Benefit Analysis DoD Department of Defense ENJJPT EURO-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training FAR Fighter-Attack-Reconnaissance IDMS Integrated Decision Modeling System IMIS Integrated Maintenance Information System JDI Job Difficulty Index vii MAC Military Airlift Command MPT Manpower, Personnel and Training OJT On-The-Job Training OTS Officer Training School PACE Processing and Classification of Enlistees PJM Person Job Match PROMIS Procurement Management Information System R&D Research and Development RPR Request for Personnel Research RRC Research Review Council SMART Simple Multiattribute Rating Technique SME Subject Matter Expert TAC Tactical Air Command TTB Tanker-Transport-Bomber UDB Unified Data Base VOICE Vocational Occupational Interest Choice Examination WAPS Weighted Airman Promotion System viii

See more

The list of books you might like

Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.