Displacement of Print - The Impact of Electronic Media on the Paper Industry, 2010-2020

65 Pages·2010·4.809 MB·English

by  Pira International Ltd, Richard Romano

paper > e-book
The Displacement of Print
The Impact of Electronic Media
on the Paper Industry, 2010-2020
This report aims to gauge the extent to which print
and paper are going to be ‘displaced’ by some form of
electronic media by 2020.
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The Displacement of Print
Pira Business Intelligence
richard romano
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table of contents
Executive Summary 3 4 5
The changing Media landscape
Drivers and Barriers for Electronic Displacement
Enabling and Disabling Technologies
Impact on Paper: outlook to 2020 Drivers and Barriers for Electronic Enabling and Disabling Technologies Impact on Paper: Outlook to 2020
Displacement conclusions Displacement Introduction Introduction
1 Introduction Enablers Books
consumer Technology adoption Trends 4Internet catalogs
Publishing Trends 4Search Directories
4Magazines 4Broadband/wiFi Magazines
Introduction and Methodology 4newspapers 4cloud computing newspapers
Introduction 4catalogs 4rFID legal, Financial
Do not Print Text to rich Media Media Enablers Manuals and Technical Documents
objective and Scope E-book Developments 4web Sites advertising
Methodology 4E-Mail 4Signage
2 4Blogs 4Direct Mail
4rSS commercial Printing
4Podcast office Stationery
4Social Media Security Printing
The Changing Media Landscape 4Video Printed Packaging
Introduction 4Geolocation Printed labels
consumer Demographics Electronic Device Enablers conclusions
advertising and Marketing Trends 4E-readers and E-books
Social Media 4Smartphones List of Tables and Figures
Mobile 4Tablet computers
Publishing Trends Display Enablers
corporate communications 4Flexible Displays
43D Displays
Disablers
4Print on Demand
4Printed Electronics
4Quick response (Qr)
4augmented reality (ar)
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paper > e-book > the displacement of print
Executive Summary
Is there any traditional print application around that isn’t Kindle have less of an environmental impact than printed books,
threatened to be supplanted by an electronic alternative at any as if electronic media didn’t have a carbon cost. of course printed Is there any
minute? Every day, it seems, a story hits the headlines extolling books require paper, which means that trees do get cut down—but traditional print
some new application of electronic media. For example, I recently trees are a renewable resource after all. conversely, electronic
application
read that an upscale restaurant in the U.S. has begun handing out media run on electricity that is produced, often, from coal and
around that isn’t
its wine list on apple iPads. can the full menu be far behind? other nonrenewable fossil fuels. and how many first- and second-
threatened to
we often think of paper and printing in terms of obvious generation Kindles (and their ilk) are going to end up in landfills
applications—direct mail, magazines and newspapers, and so on. in the next few years? and, unlike paper, there is no possibility be supplanted
The predicted electronic displacement of these items has been well of these electronic devices biodegrading. Depending on the by an electronic
documented—and will continue to be throughout this report. But batteries they contain, the devices may also leach toxins into the alternative at any
what about smaller, ‘stealth’ print and paper applications such as groundwater.
minute?
the aforementioned wine lists and menus?
So the environmental impact of paper vs. pixels is hardly clear-cut,
Is paper as a medium for conveying content in danger of but it is one of the driving ‘attitudes’ toward the displacement of
extinction? and if it does not become extinct, then how endangered print and paper.
might it get? what are the forces at work that make extinction a
viable possibility to ponder, and, conversely, what are the forces This report, then, aims—in a hybrid quantitative/qualitative
that could keep print from falling over the brink? where will paper way—to gauge the extent to which print and paper are going to
be in the year 2020? be ‘displaced’ by some form of electronic media by 2020. There
are, however, two ways that this displacement is occurring: The
Technology is obviously the major driver in the transition away from first is by direct replacement of content by that same content in
paper, though another important influence is people’s changing a different form, such as a printed book being replaced by an
attitude toward paper itself. In fact, paper is often regarded as electronic version. The second is by media consumers shifting their
an unmitigated environmental evil. In the United States, for interest from one medium to another, such as preferring to watch
example, it is common to see appended to the signature files television rather than read a book, or surf the Internet rather than
of e-mail messages the admonishment ‘Please think about the leaf through magazines. Both forces are at work, but the second
environment before printing this message.’ and, a 2009 New York has been at work for generations.
Times blog post that asked, ‘are E-readers Greener than Books?’
cited a study that reported that e-book readers such as the amazon So many completely unforeseen changes have occurred within
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paper > e-book > the displacement of print
Executive Summary
just the last five years that we know to expect even advances The forces that are sweeping through and altering the media
and changes in the next 5 to 10 years, though we may not be landscape can be categorized in a few basic ways:
able today to say exactly what those will include. whether these
advances and changes will aid or impede the displacement of print Changing Consumer Demographics—The first ‘digital natives’
and paper remains to be seen, though we can make some educated were born in 1990 and 1991 and grew up never knowing a world
predictions. without the Internet, mobile phones, and other high-tech devices.
More than 60 million people in the U.S. alone have been born since
The Changing Media Landscape the Internet went into broad public use in 1995. with a population
In the 500 years since the advent of printing, the media landscape of 307 million today, that means that 19 percent—almost one
has changed, slowly at first, but quite rapidly in the 19th century. fifth—of the U.S. population has never known a life without the
The first real ‘media competitor’ to print was the telegraph (1844), Internet.
and since then, new media channels have emerged at a fairly
steady clip—from the telephone (1876) to the fax machine (1856), Changing Trends in Advertising and Marketing—one
to radio, motion pictures, television, home video, and ultimately the consistent data point of the past 15 years is that advertiser
Internet. The emergence of social media in the 00s wasn’t anything spending on ‘old’ media (which includes print) is on the wane
truly revolutionary, but rather represented an evolution of basic while spending on new media (Internet, search, mobile) is on the
Internet capabilities. increase. as an example, media tracker eMarketer estimates that
in the U.S. alone, online will account for just over 20 percent of all
If there is anything we can say about today’s changing media media spending by 2014.
landscape versus previous changes, it’s that new things are evolving
much more quickly. look at what has changed in just five years: Social Media—while blogs and YouTube can in some sense be
considered social media, what we typically mean by social media
TABLE 0.1 2005 vs. 2010—Social and mobile media is Twitter and Facebook. Media tracker eMarketer estimates that
worldwide spending on social-media marketing in 2011 will be in
Even now, as many people are still trying to come to terms with excess of $2 billion.
‘old’ social media, new implementations are starting to gain
CLICK TO VIEW TABLE
traction—geolocation services such as Foursquare, for example, are Mobile (smartphones and tablets like the iPad)—The line
looming on the horizon. between social media and mobile—or between the ‘web’ and the
‘mobile web’—is getting more and more blurred. Marketers and
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paper > e-book > the displacement of print
Executive Summary
advertisers have seized on mobile app developments as a way to help offer an HTMl version of their annual report, and only 7% offer the
get the user to ‘decide’ to be marketed to. entire report only in HTMl. annual reports are important investor
and public-relations documents, and if the migration to sole electronic
Publishing Trends—newspaper circulation peaked in the 1970s, format has been slow, it will likely increase, especially as the slickest
and started to level off in the 1980s. By the time the world wide annual reports begin to incorporate rich media, such as animation
web went public in 1991, the decline had already been starting, and video. letters from company presidents and cEos have always
due in large part to the advent of cable news in 1980. Magazines been an important feature of annual reports, so it is not unreasonable
have seen similar declines. according to data from the audit Bureau to expect that ‘video letters’ will gradually replace written ones.
of circulation, between the years 2000 and 2010, U.S. magazine
subscription circulation dropped about three percent, even as the Drivers and Barriers for Electronic Displacement
population rose nearly 1 percent per year. E-books are the only book what are those factors that are driving the changing media
category experiencing double-digit growth rates (71 percent caGr landscape we saw in the last section? and what are those factors that
between 2002 and 2009, according to the association of american impede those changes? we can identify a few areas:
Publishers), thanks to compelling new hardware devices such as the
amazon Kindle and the apple iPad. 2010 saw the first million-selling Consumer Technology Adoption Trends—Futurist and inventor
e-book author(s): the late Stieg larsson, of the ubiquitous ‘Millennium’ ray Kurzweil has often written about the exponential rate of
series, was the first author to sell one million Kindle e-books, while technological change. For example, it took about fifty years for the
James Patterson was the first to sell one million e-books comprised of telephone to achieve a significant level of usage, yet it took only
various formats. about ten years for the mobile phone to achieve similar levels. as for
other consumer technologies:
Changing Trends in Corporate Communications—Business
letters, forms, annual reports, etc., have been migrating in digital TABLE 0.2 Adoption rates of selected consumer technologies
directions. E-mail, instant messaging, and the mobile phone have Years to Reach Years to Reach 50% Adop-
largely replaced other types of business communications, and forms 10% Adoption tion
Video cassette recorder 10 14
are more often than not produced on an office printer, although PDF-
compact Disc Player 4.5 10.5
based or online forms are quickly replacing printed forms. a 2008 color TV 12 18
study of annual report trends found that 28 percent of companies Mobile phone 8 15
Personal computer 4 18
offer a link to their annual report (usually in PDF form) on their
corporate web site, 13% of canadian and 24% of U.S. companies Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, Viking, 2005, pp. 48-49
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paper > e-book > the displacement of print
Executive Summary
note that none of these are print-based, and yet every new nonprint That is, from text and images to rich media such as animation,
consumer technology that has achieved any degree of adoption is video, audio. The biggest growth area for rich media is online
one more driver for the displacement of print. video. In September 2010 alone, more than 175 million U.S. users
watched online video. and more and more businesses are starting
an even bigger force is broadband adoption. Dr. Joe webb, of to incorporate online video, and not just for delivering ads. new
whatTheyThink’s Economics and research center, has calculated developments in print could help bridge this gap between static
that for every additional hour of broadband time spent online at and dynamic media. Printable electronics or the ability to add small
home, U.S. commercial printing volume declines by $2. displays to printed materials can make print ‘rich,’ adding a visual
component that is only a short leap away from those greeting
Publishing Trends—one deadly mistake that newspaper and cards that play songs when you open them. other ‘interactive’ print
magazine publishers made early on was fail to charge for online elements such as Qr codes and augmented reality use print as a
content from Day one. The problem today isn’t so much that jumping-off point for rich media experiences.
readers don’t want to pay for content; it’s that they got inured to
the fact that online content was free. Publishers didn’t assign any Growth of Electronic Books—Since 2006, e-books have become
value to their online content at the outset, and as a result, neither more mainstream, and while they represent a very small percentage
did the marketplace. Branded apps for the iPad have been viewed of overall book sales, they are growing steadily and strongly.
as a potential salvation for the publishing industry, but it remains E-books have gone from one-half percent of all U.S. book sales in
to be seen what the value proposition for the reading public is. It’s 2008 to one percent in 2009. Still a drop in the bucket, but if you
difficult to imagine how branded magazine apps can compete with accumulate enough drops, eventually you get a pretty full bucket.
the breadth of information that exists for free online. For instance, There are several barriers to e-books displacing printed books. The
in technology journalism, how can a traditional print vehicle like first is the variety of formats and devices available, which is often
Popular Science compete with the Gizmodos, BoingBoings, and frustrating for consumers, as well as emerging price wars in which it
Engadgets of the Internet, all of which are blog-like in format and is not unusual to find a title in hardcover that is less expensive than
have achieved enough recognition that they are granted the same its corresponding e-book version.
(if not better) access to primary industry sources that so-called ‘real’
journalists enjoy.
Text to Rich Media—The history of media changes in western
culture has been a steady migration from static to dynamic content.
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Enabling and Disabling Technologies The following are some display enablers, or new display
The following items are some basic technologies that provide the technologies and developments that are making electronic reading
foundation for the displacement of print and paper: more comfortable and viable, offering yet another way that print
• Internet and paper can be displaced:
• Search • Flexible displays
• Broadband/wiFi • 3D displays
• cloud computing
• rFID The following are some ‘disablers,’ or technologies that can help
print and paper compete with electronic media, particularly when
The following are ‘media enablers’ that use some of the above it comes to the twin issues of ‘timeliness’ and ‘relevance,’ which
technology enablers to further displace print and paper in specific have largely been the forces driving the adoption of electronic
niches: dissemination of content.
• web sites • Print on demand
• E-mail • Printed electronics
• Blogs • Quick response (Qr) codes
• rSS • augmented reality (ar)
• Podcasts
• Social media Impact on Paper: Outlook to 2020
• Video what does the future hold for paper? Print and paper applications
• Geolocation will be affected in different ways. The applications that will be most
heavily displaced by electronic media include:
The following are some hardware devices and technologies that • Directories
are enablers of the displacement of print in that the Internet, social • Financial statements/bills
media, e-mail, video, and all the media enablers cited above can be • Manuals/technical documentation
accessed on these devices. • Transpromotional
• E-readers and e-books • Flyers
• Smartphones • letterhead/envelopes
• Tablet computers
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Those applications that will be moderately displaced by electronic customers—to integrate and effectively use all of these (and future)
media include: media in tandem. That is where the real opportunity for the paper
• Books industry lies.
• catalogs
• Magazines
• newspapers
• checks
• legal documents
• Signage
• Direct mail
• Brochures
• retail labels
Those applications that will be minimally or negligibly displaced by
electronic media include:
• Business cards
• Passports/licenses/personal ID
• credit cards
• Folding cartons
• Flexible packaging
• adhesive labels
Displacement Conclusions
while it’s true that there is a tremendous paper-to-pixel shift
happening, which will only intensify in the coming decade and
beyond, it will forever remain a multichannel, multimedia world, and
print will need to complement and supplement these other media.
It behooves printers and their universe of suppliers and vendors
to help them assist communicators—who are, after all, printers’
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1 Introduction and Methodology
Introduction of oak paneling and white tablecloths, the gold-jacketed waiters
as I was finishing this report on the displacement of paper and now greet diners by handing them an iPad. It is loaded with the Trying to think of
print by electronic media, I happened to read—electronically—a restaurant’s extensive wine list, holding detailed descriptions and a print application
review of a new biography of al Jaffe, a U.S. cartoonist and ratings of 1,350 labels.
that can’t be
longtime contributor to Mad, a humor/satire magazine that was
supplanted by
somewhat of a staple of the typical american childhood in the call it novelty perhaps, but the restaurant has seen wine sales per
an electronic
1970s. Jaffe invented what is known as the cover ‘fold-in,’ which diner increase 11 percent. Some people still prefer to question the
works like this: The inside back cover of the printed magazine sommelier about wine choices, obviously, but others find that an alternative is
asks a question and, below it, features a single drawing and a electronic wine list provides an ostensibly unbiased opinion. For becoming more
paragraph of text. There are two arrows labeled ‘a’ and ‘B’, and the restaurant, the e-wine list is linked to the inventory system, and more difficult.
when the page is folded so that a and B meet, the remaining facilitating reordering and stock management.
Every day, it seems,
unobscured text underneath the picture becomes a satirical answer
some new story
to the question, while the picture ‘morphs’ into a new image we often think of paper and printing in terms of obvious
hits the papers...
illustrating the new text. applications: direct mail, magazines and newspapers, etc., and the
electronic displacement of these items has been well-documented,
My initial thought was, ‘a-ha! That’s an application of print/paper and will continue to be throughout this report. But what about
that couldn’t really be replaced by electronic media.’ curious, I did smaller ‘stealth’ print and paper applications—like wine lists?
a search and found that The New York Times has an interactive Is paper as a medium for conveying content in danger of
Flash-based archive of Mad magazine cover fold-ins that lets users extinction? and if it does not become extinct, then how endangered
virtually ‘fold’ digital magazine covers. Sigh. might it get? what are the forces at work that make extinction a
viable possibility to ponder, and, conversely, what are the forces
Trying to think of a print application that can’t be supplanted by that could keep print from falling over the brink? where will paper
an electronic alternative is becoming more and more difficult. Every be in the year 2020?
day, it seems, some new story hits the papers (the term papers
being more metaphor than anything, as these stories usually we will explore this topic in this report.
appear on web sites) about some new application of electronic we will find that technology is spearheading this transition, but
media. Such as, say, this story from the new York Times: at the same time people’s attitudes toward paper are changing. In
fact, paper use is often seen as an unmitigated environmental evil.
At Bone’s, Atlanta’s most venerable steakhouse, a clubby place
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