Development of crop yield forecast models under FASAL- a case study of kharif rice in West Bengal

19 Pages·2014·0.2 MB·English

Journal of Agrometeorology 16 (1) : 1-8 (June 2014)

Invited paper

Development of crop yield forecast models under FASAL- a case
study of kharif rice in
West Bengal
K. GHOSH, R. BALASUBRAMANIAN, S. BANDOPADHYAY , N. CHATTOPADHYAY,
2
K.K. SINGH
1
and L.S. RATHORE
1

Agricultural Meteorology Division, India Meteorological Department, Pune
1India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, New Delhi
2Regional Meteorological Centre, IMD, Kolkata
E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
Crop yield forecasts are prepared at District, State and National level under the ongoing
project “Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology and Land based
observations (FASAL)”, operational at Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India in collaboration
with Space Application Centre (SAC), Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) and India
Meteorological Department (IMD). As per the mandate of the project, crop yield forecasts are
being generated for 13 major crops. Different models are used by these organizations for
generation of crop yield forecasts. Under FASAL project, IMD in collaboration with 46 Agromet
Field units (AMFU) located at different State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), ICAR institutes,
IITs, develops intra-seasonal operational yield forecast for the major crops during kharif and
rabi seasons using statistical model. Within IMD, in addition to the Agricultural Meteorology
Division, all the Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) and Meteorological Centres (MCs),
located in different states are also working in this project. Long period crop yield data as well as
weekly weather data as per meteorological standard week have been used for development of
the district level yield forecast models. For developing the yield forecast, models using
composite weather variables have been studied. Simple and weighted weather indices have
been prepared for individual weather variables as well as for interaction of two at a time
considering throughout the crop growing season. Minimum data set required to develop the
statistical model have also been mentioned in this paper. In order to demonstrate the data
requirement, methodology for crop yield forecast through regression technique along with the
interpretations, the relevant data of West Bengal have been taken up. National level crop yield
forecast is prepared by the Mahalanabis National Crop Forecasting Centre (MNCFC) based on
the state level forecast generated in IMD.
Key words: Kharif rice, yield forecast, weather indices, West Bengal, FASAL
Assessment of impacts of climate change on rice and wheat in
the Indo-Gangetic plains

MANJU ZACHARIAS, S. NARESH KUMAR*, S.D. SINGH, D.N. SWAROOPA RANI and
P.K. AGGARWAL1
Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture,
Indian Agricultural Research Institute, 110 012, New Delhi, India;
*Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
In this paper, the climate change scenarios of A2 and B2 for 2070-2100 time scale
(denoted as 2080) for several key locations of India and its impact on rice and wheat crops
based on regional climate model (PRECIS) were described. The PRECIS projects an increase in
temperature over most parts of India especially in the IGP (Indo-Gangetic Plains), the region
that presently experiences relatively low temperatures. Extreme high temperature episodes
and rainfall intensity days are projected to become more frequent and the monsoon rainfall is
also projected to increase. Rabi (mid Nov-March) season is likely to experience higher increase
in temperature which could impact and hence become threat to the crops which really require
low temperature for their growth. Climatic variability is also projected to increase in both A2
and B2 scenarios. All these projected changes are likely to reduce the wheat and rice yields in
Indo-Gangetic plains of India. It is likely that there will be more number of years with low yields
occurs towards the end of the century. Such yield reductions in rice and wheat crops due to
climate change are mediated through reduction in crop duration, grain number and grain filling
duration. The yield loss will be more in A2 scenario compared to B2. These quantitative
estimates still have uncertainties associated with them, largely due to uncertainties in climate
change projections, future technology growth, availability of inputs such as water for irrigation,
changes in crop management and genotype. These projections nevertheless provide a direction
of likely change in crop productivity in future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: PRECIS, Info Crop, Indo-Gangetic plain, crop model, wheat, rice
Simulating the impact of projected climate change on rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield and
adaptation strategies in major rice growing regions of India
1RANI SAXENA and 2S. NARESH KUMAR
1Division of Agronomy, Rajasthan Agricultural Research Institute, Durgapura, Jaipur-302018
2Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture,
Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012
E-mail address: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Global mean air temperatures are projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0 oC by the end of
this century. Higher temperatures coupled with increased CO levels could result in altered
2
growth and productivity of crops. Since rice is sensitive to high temperatures, a simulation
analysis was carried out to quantify the impact of increased temperatures (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 oC)
and elevated CO (369, 450,550 and 650ppm) alone and in combination on the yield using
2
InfoCrop-RICE model. An assessment is also provided on the possible gains due to change in
planting time and crop duration. Though elevated CO alone increased the rice yields, increase
2
in temperature by 1oC (even at 369 ppm CO concentration) reduced irrigated rice yield by 6.6
2
to 11.1 % and rainfed rice yields by 4.6 % to 9.4 %. The combined impact of increased
temperature and elevated CO resulted in net decline in yield in spite of CO fertilization.
2 2
Planting cultivars in future with matching crop duration of current cultivars and change in
planting time may reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields.
Key words: Rice, simulation, yield, CO , temperature, adaptation strategies
2
Impact of projected climate change on Wheat varieties in Uttarakhand, India
S.K.DUBEY, S.K.TRIPATHI, G. PRANUTHI, RESHU YADAV
Department of Water Resources Development and Management, IITRoorkee, (Uttarakhand) India
Email: [email protected] , [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Crop production is naturally sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature and CO are
2
two important parameters related to climate change, which affect yield of crop. To test the
hypothesis an attempt has been made to assess the impact of these two parameters on the growth,
yield and physiology of wheat cultivars (HD2285, HUW 234, PBW 343, PBW 226, Raj 3765
and Raj 3077) grown in North –West plain of Uttarakhand. For this purpose CERES-Wheat
model v.4.5 was used. Total five CO concentrations as projected by IPCC i.e. Ambient (380
2
ppm), +100, +200, +300, and +400 ppm have been used in the model. However, on the basis of
study carried out in the region, the model was run and rerun for temperatures rise by 0.50C,
1.00C, 1.50C and 2.00C from current temperature levels. Percent deviation of phenology, leaf
area index, yield, evapotranspiration and WUE from baseline was estimated and analyzed to
assess the effect of elevated temperature and CO .The model results showed that the yields and
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WUE of all the varieties increased significantly under elevated CO concentrations and
2
decreased significantly with increasing temperatures. Among the cultivars PBW 343 performed
well under various temperature as well as CO scenarios and found to be high yielding with an
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average grain yield potential of 5628 and 5669 kg ha-1. Variety HD 2285 was found to be more
sensitive in response to varying level of CO with the average change of 40.6% from baseline.
2
Varieties such as PBW 343, HUW 234 and Raj 3765 are best performer varieties in term of
growth (LAI), yield (grain and biomass) physiology (total evapotranspiration and WUE) and
have ability to sustain in changing climate. Thus these cultivars can be recommended for
cultivation in SW plains of Uttarakhand state.
Keywords: DSSAT4.5, Wheat varieties, Water use efficiency, CO , Temperature
2
Climate change impact assessment and developing adaptation strategies for
rice crop in Western zone of Tamil Nadu using CERES –Rice model
K.BHUVANESWARI1, V.GEETHALAKSHMI1, A. LAKSHMANAN1,
R.ANBHAZHAGAN1 and D NAGOTHU UDAYA SEKHAR2
1Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore -3
2Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research, Norway
Corresponding author email:[email protected]
ABSTRACT
The CERES-Rice model in the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer
(DSSAT) was used for assessing the impact of climate change on rice and developing adaptation
strategies to sustain rice production in western zone of Tamil Nadu. Model results showed that
the rice yield reduction ranged from 4 -56 % with increase in temperature from 1 to 5°C
respectively from the current climate under different dates of planting from 1st June to 15th July.
The different sowing windows tested as adaptation strategy to climate change indicated that the
change in yield from current condition under early, normal, late planting during kharif season
was -21.2, -15.0 and -16.3 % respectively for 3°C increase in temperature and 650 ppm CO2
enrichment, during rabi season, it was -9.2, +10.2 and +11.0 % respectively. To manage the
water crisis under changing climatic conditions, different methods of cultivation viz.,
transplanted rice (TRC- conventional), direct sown rice (DSR), alternate wetting and drying
method (AWD), system of rice intensification (SRI) and aerobic rice cultivation (ARC) was
simulated. Higher grain yield was registered under SRI with water saving of 16 and 7.8%
respectively during kharif and rabi seasons.
Key words: Climate change, Rice, CERES-Rice model
Effect of climate change and elevated CO on reference evapotranspiration in
2
Varanasi, India - A case study

ANNU PRIYA*, A. K. NEMA* and ADLUL ISLAM1
Department of Farm Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU, Varanasi- 221005
1ICAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, Bihar Veterinary College PO, Patna-800014
E-mail:[email protected]; [email protected]

ABSTRACT
Evapotranspiration (ET) is the major component of hydrological cycle, and will affect the
crop water requirement and future planning and management of water resources under changing
climate scenarios. In the present study, an attempt was made to study the sensitivity of reference
evapotranspiration (ETo) to different climatic variables, and effect of temperature and elevated
CO on ETo using meteorological data (1973-2010) of the Banaras Hindu University (BHU),
2
Varanasi. The FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method was used to estimate ETo, and sensitivity of
ETo was studied in terms of changes in temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and vapour
pressure deficit. The combined effect of temperature and elevated CO levels was studied by
2
varying the temperature from 1°C to 5°C, and the CO level from 330 ppm to 660 ppm. The
2
simulation results showed that the mean temperature (Tmean) influenced the annual ETo the
most followed by solar radiation (Rs), vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and wind speed (U ). There
2
are about 18.20, 13.80, 7.90 and 5.40% increase in annual ETo with 25% increase in Tmean, Rs,
VPD, and U , respectively. Simulating the combined effect of temperature and elevated CO
2 2
indicated that the effect of 2.5 °C rise in temperature is offset by doubling of CO concentration.
2
Thus, the effect of rising temperature is moderated by the increasing CO concentrations, and the
2
crop water demand may not rise significantly under the climate change scenarios.
Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith equation, Stomatal resistance, Sensitivity
analysis, Climate change
Management options to increase groundnut productivityunder climate change
at selected sites in India
PIARA SINGH*, N. P. SINGH, K. J. BOOTE1, S. NEDUMARAN, K. SRINIVAS and M. C. BANTILAN
ICRISAT, Patancheru, 502 324, Andhra Pradesh, India
1Agronomy Dept., University of Florida, IFAS, Gainesville, FL32611-0290, USA
*Corresponding author: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Climate change is projected to alter the growing conditions of groundnut crop differently
in different regions of India. The CROPGRO-Groundnut model was used to quantify the impact
of climate change on the productivity of groundnut at three sites (Anantapur, Mahboobnagar and
Junagadh) in India.Increase in temperature significantly (p<0.05) decreased pod yield of
groundnut at all the sites by 2050. But the net effect of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO
2
was 4% decrease in yieldat Anantapur and 11% increase at both Mahboobnagar and Junagadh.
A number of agronomic practices evaluated under climate change atAnantapur showed that the
maximum increase in yield was simulated with supplemental irrigation, followed by delay in
sowing and growing a longer maturity variety. At Mahboobnagar, the maximum yield gain was
with delayed sowing, followed by growing a longer maturity variety, supplemental irrigation and
application of crop residues. At Junagadh, the yield increase was the maximum with
supplemental irrigation, followed by application of crop residues. It is concluded that the relative
contribution and prioritization of agronomic practices to increase groundnut yield under
climatechange varied with the region and the CROPGRO-Groundnut modelwas useful in
quantifying such benefits.
Key words: Agronomic optimization,Climatic factors,Peanut, Crop modeling, CROPGRO-
Peanut model
Generation of weather windows to develop agro advisories for Tamil Nadu under
automated weather forecast system
BALASUBRAMANIAN, T. N., JAGANNATHAN, R., MARAGATHAM, N.,SATHYAMOORTHI, K.andR.
NAGARAJAN
Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641003
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
With the objective of providing weather windowsat block level of Tamil Nadu for
developing agro advisories in respect of dominant crops,an exploratory research was conducted
with four levels of rainfall, three levels of maximum temperature, three levels of minimum
temperature, three levels of mean day relative humidity and three levels of wind speed. Adopting
the permutation and combination methodology a total of 324 combinations from the identified
levels of five weather elements weredeveloped. Out of these combinations, 54 weather windows
each with range of values for the identified weather elements were selected based on the
validation of real-time weather data collectedcovering bothtemporal and spatialweather
dimensions of the state.
Key words:Weather window, agro advisories, automated weather forecast system, generation
Radiation use efficiency (RUE) and instantaneous photosynthesis at different growth stages
of wheat (Triticumaestivum L.) in semi arid ecosystem of Central Punjab, India
JOYDEEP MUKHERJEE1, GURJOT SINGH and S.K. BAL2
Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana 141 004

ABSTRACT
The instantaneous canopy net photosynthetic rate (Ac) and photosynthetic radiation use
efficiency (PhRUE) were investigated diurnally at different growth stages of wheat during two
seasons 2009-2010 and 2010-11.Diurnal changes in Ac were synchronized with changesin
incident photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFDo) throughout the experimental period during
both the seasons. Regardless of growth stages, high Ac values were alwaysobserved around
noon, when there was a high photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). In addition, the highest
AC values were noticed atheading stage, when compared to other growth and development
stages of wheat.With respect to PhRUE, the highest values occurred in the active tillering stage
and decreased gradually upto soft dough stage during both the seasons.PhRUE was lowest after
heading stage for wheat crop in both seasons, corresponding to decrease in photosynthetically
active leaf area, another explanation for the decrease in RUE is a decrease in crop growth rate.
Regarding diurnal changes in PhRUE, study revealed that it was always higher during early
morning and evening time of the day at all the stages of the crop. The seasonal PhRUE of wheat
was observed to be 1.21 g MJ-1 and 1.27 g MJ-1, respectively during two seasons.

Key words: RUE, PhRUE, wheat, photon flux density and PAR
Identification of physiological and yield related traits of wheat (Triticum
aestivum L.) under varying soil moisture stress
K. D. SHARMA* and ASHOK KUMAR
Crop Physiology Laboratory, Department of Agronomy,
CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar- 125 004
*Corresponding author: E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
An experiment was conducted during two rabi seasons of 2008-09 and 2009-10 on wheat to find
suitable physiological traits in wheat genotypes for restricted irrigation application in concrete drought
plots. The experiment was designed as split plot consisting of three irrigation schedules viz., normal
irrigated (control), two irrigations at 25 and 105 DAS (moderate stress) and single irrigation at 25 DAS
(rainfed) in the main plots and four genotypes namely WH 1025, WH 1080, WH 1081 and C 306 in the
sub-plots with three replications. The moisture stress created by restricting the irrigation decreased the
leaf water potential (LWP), canopy temperature depression (CTD), transpiration rate, stomatal
conductance and photosynthesis. Moisture stress decreased the yield and yield attributes with
maximum reduction in number of tillers per plant followed plant height and ear length. Among the
genotypes, WH 1080 produced significantly higher yield due to higher test weight, plant water status
and higher rate of photosynthesis of flag leaf during anthesis compared to other genotypes under
rainfed condition.
Key words: Leaf water potential, moisture stress, photosynthesis, relative water content, wheat.