Demographic Trends in National Forest, Recreational, Retirement, and Amenity Areas

18 Pages·2015·0.99 MB·English

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Kenneth M. Johnson
University of New Hampshire - Main Campus, [email protected]
Susan I. Stewart
USDA Forest Service
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Johnson, K.M. and Stewart, S.I. 2007. "Demographic Trends in National Forest, Recreational, Retirement
and Amenity Areas." Proceedings : National Workshop on Recreation Research Management. Linda
Kruger, Rhonda Mazza and Kelly Lawrence. PNW-GTR-698. Portland, OR : USDA Forest Service Research,
Pacific Northwest Research Station. pp. 187-199. Print.
This Conference Proceeding is brought to you for free and open access by the Sociology at University of New
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General Technical Report United States Forest Pacific Northwest
PJuNnWe -2G0T0R7-698 DAgerpicaurtltmureent of EDPARTMENTFAGRICULTERU Service Research Station
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Editors
Linda E. Kruger is a research social scientist, USDAForest Service, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 2770
Sherwood Lane, Suite 2A, Juneau, AK 99801. Rhonda Mazza was a science writer, USDAForest Service,
Forestry Science Laboratory, 620 SW Main Street, Suite 400, Portland, OR 97206. She is now a freelance
science writer in Portland, Oregon. Kelly Lawrence is a social science analyst, USDAForest Service, Pacific
Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, 400 N 34th Street, Seattle, WA98103.
Cover credits
Top left, Mary Noel USDAForest Service; middle, top right, and lower right Gary Paull, USDAForest Service;
lower left Jerry Ingersoll, USDAForest Service. Cover design by Pilar Reichlein.
Graphic designer: Jenny Beranek, Beaverton, OR.
Papers were provided by the authors in camera-ready form for printing. Authors are responsible for the content
and accuracy. Opinions expressed may not necessarily reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Proceedings:
National Workshop
on Recreation Research
and Management
February 8-10, 2005
Portland, Oregon
Linda E. Kruger
Rhonda Mazza
Kelly Lawrence
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Portland, Oregon
General Technical Report
PNW-GTR-698
June 2007
Proceedings: National Workshop on Recreation Research and Management
Demographic Trends in National Forest,
Recreational, Retirement, and Amenity Areas
Kenneth M. Johnson1and Susan I. Stewart2
Abstract
Those who live near national forests are both potential forest visitors and neighbors who feel the impact of many
forest management decisions. This paper provides some insights about those proximate populations. It does so
by measuring the proportion of national forest land within each county and then combining that with an analysis
of the patterns of demographic change over the past several decades. Because there is considerable overlap
between counties that contain national forests and those designated as recreational, high amenity, and retirement
destination counties, demographic trends in such counties are compared. Atotal of 757 of the 3,141 U.S. counties
contain national forest land. More than 66.1 million people resided in these counties in 2000, some 24% of the
U.S. total. The population in national forest counties grew by 19% between 1990 and 2000 compared to 13%
for the nation as a whole. Most of the population gain in national forest areas resulted from net in-migration.
Population gains in national forest counties were slightly smaller than those in recreational and natural amenity
counties and significantly less than those in retirement destination counties; however, the gains were consider-
ably larger than those in other counties. National forest counties that are metropolitan have significantly more
Hispanics than other metropolitan counties but fewer Blacks and Whites. Nonmetropolitan national forest counties
contain a much larger proportion of non-Hispanic Whites than their metropolitan counterparts, a finding consis-
tent with that for nonmetropolitan counties in general. Knowledge about the changing size and demographic
structure of the population in national forest counties has particular relevance to Forest Service planners and
policymakers.
Introduction the national forests enhances resource planning and
management by clarifying who will be impacted by
The Forest Service and other land management agen-
forest management. It also provides a profile of some
cies serve the needs of both users and nonusers of
of the forest’s potential visitors.
the resources they manage. Some of those they serve
Knowledge of the changing size and demographic
reside near the resources while others live at some
structure of the population has particular utility to forest
distance from them. Whether they use the forests or
managers and policymakers, in part because popula-
not, those who live near the forests are often affected
tion growth in the vicinity of national forests over the
by their day-to-day management. Current and com-
past decade has significant implications. Population
plete information about the population residing near
1Professor of Sociology, Loyola University-Chicago, Lake Shore Campus, Damen Hall-933, 6525 N. Sheridan Chicago, Il 60626.
Email: [email protected]
2Research Social Scientist, USDAForest Service, North Central Research Station, 1033 University Place, Suite 360, Evanston, IL60201.
Email: [email protected]
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General Technical Report PNW-GTR-698
growth is known to increase population density along influence migration (the most important component of
the forest edge. This puts additional pressure on ripari- demographic change), our analysis classifies counties
an and environmentally sensitive areas, increases the using these characteristics and describes the changes
use of recreational facilities, and complicates forest occurring in each type of county.
management and fire suppression (Gobster et al. This paper highlights changes over time in the
2000, Radeloff et al. 2001, Wear and Bolstad 1998, population size and composition (i.e., the relative size
Wear et al. 1998). Changes in the structure of the pop- of age groups and racial/ethnic groups) in areas of
ulation within and immediately surrounding the national particular relevance to the Forest Service. Areas to
forests is also significant for forest management and be examined include those containing national forests,
planning. For example, recent research suggests that those where recreational activity is high, those that
recreational areas are receiving a net influx of people serve as destinations for retirement migrants and those
30 years old and over (Johnson and Fuguitt 2000). with significant natural amenities. Although there is
Increased retention of young adults or an influx of this considerable overlap among these county types, previ-
age group is likely to impact the natural environment ous research suggests there are distinct differences
and local infrastructure differently than would an exo- among them as well. Population gains have been sub-
dus of this age group, or an influx of retirement age stantial in recreational, retirement, and natural amenity
migrants. Young adults are in a phase of the lifecycle areas in recent years (Johnson 1999, McGranahan
that emphasizes family formation and labor force par- 1999). Less is known about population change in
ticipation, and as a result are likely to consume more areas containing national forests, but our analysis
land, generate more highway trips, and use recreation- shows that they are also experiencing both population
al and natural areas differently than senior citizens. growth and changing demographic structure.
The relation between demographic change and The U.S. Census Bureau provides a wealth of
natural resources has been explored in some detail detailed data about the population. However, additional
since the rural turnaround of the 1970s focused atten- analysis of census data is always necessary when it
tion on migration patterns in the United States (Fuguitt is used to address resource management questions
1995, Johnson 1998). This rural turnaround marked a because the boundaries of public resources rarely
shift in net migration patterns, from a predominantly coincide with the standard geographic units used for
rural-to-urban flow of people to a net urban-to-rural demographic reporting. For example, national forests
flow (Johnson and Beale 1998). Beginning with the do not correspond directly to states, counties, or any
turnaround of the 1970s and continuing after a brief lull other geographic unit used by the Census Bureau to
in the 1980s with the rural rebound of the 1990s, rural report data. Furthermore, many population characteris-
areas attracted and retained more migrants than they tics useful in recreation management, such as racial
lost. This pattern was especially strong in areas with and ethnic group membership, are available only in the
attractive scenery and abundant recreational oppor- decennial censuses (i.e., 1990, 2000). Thus the
tunities. Retirement trends also played a role in the release of data from the 2000 decennial census offers
rural rebound because retirees made up a significant a unique opportunity to examine demographic charac-
number of those leaving urban areas to settle in rural teristics that are particularly relevant to resource man-
places. Because the presence of national forests, agers, and to determine how these characteristics
amenity resources, and recreational opportunities have changed between 1990 and 2000.
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Proceedings: National Workshop on Recreation Research and Management
Objectives counties or county equivalents. As of 1993, 837 coun-
Our goal is to give resource managers an updated por- ties were defined as metropolitan with the remainder
trait of the population living near the national forest. To defined as nonmetropolitan. The terms rural and non-
accomplish this we focus on four objectives: metropolitan are used interchangeably here, as are the
terms metropolitan and urban.
• Identify counties with national forest land and
Recreational, natural amenity, and retirement desti-
measure the proportion of national forest land
nation counties are delineated by using existing class-
within each of these counties.
ification systems (see below). These classification
• Summarize the patterns of demographic
systems are applied just to nonmetropolitan areas.
change between 1990 and 2000 in counties
This allows trends in metropolitan counties (as a sep-
containing national forest land.
arate category) to be compared to trends in recrea-
• Compare the distribution of national forest
tional, natural amenity, and retirement destination
counties to that of counties designated as
counties, and to those in all other nonmetropolitan
recreational, high amenity, and retirement.
counties.
• Compare the patterns of demographic change
between 1990 and 2000 in national forest
Identification of Recreational, Amenity,
counties to those in counties designated as
Retirement, and Forest Counties
recreational, high amenity, and retirement.
Johnson and Beale (2002) identified 329 recreational
Methods counties using a classification procedure combining
quantitative analysis of indicators of recreational
This project makes extensive use of data from the
activity (high earnings and employment from recreation-
2000 census to produce an overview of the demo-
al businesses, high spending on hotels and motels,
graphic structure in the relevant county groups. The
high proportion of seasonal housing) with a contextual
2000 data are combined with 1990 census data to doc-
analysis of travel literature. This recreational county
ument demographic change between 1990 and 2000.
classification updates their earlier effort to identify
Counties are the unit of analysis and are appropri-
recreational counties (Beale and Johnson 1998).
ate for this purpose because they have historically
Research using their earlier index documented sub-
stable boundaries and are a basic unit for reporting
stantially higher population gains in counties desig-
fertility, mortality, and census data. Counties are delin-
nated as recreational (Johnson and Fuguitt 2000).
eated as metropolitan or nonmetropolitan by using
McGranahan (1999) created a natural amenity
criteria developed by the Office of Management and
index using data on natural and scenic amenities
Budget. Generally, a county is classified as metropoli-
(lakes and water, elevation, temperature and climate
tan if it contains a city of at least 50,000 or if it is con-
variation, etc.). The amenity index focuses on the
tiguous to a county containing a city of at least 50,000
physical attributes of a county.As such, it does an
and is socially and economically integrated with it. For
excellent job of identifying counties with attractive
example, a county made up of bedroom communities
viewscapes, riparian areas, and scenic and natural
surrounding an urban center is considered integrated
amenities. The amenity index assigns a score to each
with that urban area and is classified as a metropolitan
county based on its relative position on the various
area. Because metropolitan reclassification compli-
natural amenities. McGranahan documented a sub-
cates efforts to compare nonmetropolitan areas across
stantial positive relationship between population growth
time, a consistent 1993 metropolitan definition is used
and high scores on his amenity index.
for the analysis. The United States contains 3,141
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General Technical Report PNW-GTR-698
Retirement counties are defined as those in which Beale identifies counties with high recreational activity
the population 60 and over in 1990 increased by 15% levels, but does not directly measure the physical
or more between 1980 and 1990 through the net in- attributes of the area. The recreational typology is
movement of older people (Cook and Mizer 1994). certainly sensitive to natural amenities because lakes,
There are 190 retirement destination counties in non- forest, and topography all generate considerable recre-
metropolitan America. There is considerable overlap ational activity. It is also acutely sensitive to local
between the recreational and amenity counties dis- recreational activity levels because it measures usage
cussed above and the retirement destination counties. rather than physical amenities. Because the proximity
In part, this is because those moving at retirement age of large population concentrations increases the
are attracted to the same natural amenities and recre- amount of recreational use in areas with significant
ational opportunities that appeal to the rest of the pop- natural amenities, the recreational typology is more
ulation. Prior research suggests that counties that were likely to capture the recreational activity sphere of
both recreational and retirement destinations gained large urban areas. In addition, because the recreation-
more population between 1990 and 1999 than any al typology is more sensitive to recreation and tourism
other group of counties (Johnson 1999). Most of the activity levels than to the physical attributes of an area,
population gain in such counties came from migration. it is more likely to identify recreational areas in the
Such migration often represents the culmination of a Midwest. Using both typologies maximizes the proba-
chain of events commencing with vacationing in the bility that areas where the natural environment pro-
area and progressing to second home ownership and duces significant recreational activity will be identified.
migration (Stewart and Stynes 1994). An important objective of this study is to delineate
There is considerable overlap between the recre- counties in which national forests represent a signifi-
ation and amenity classification systems, but there are cant local feature. The starting point for identifying
also important differences. The amenity index was national forest counties is the inventory of counties
designed to identify amenity-rich areas nationwide and containing national forest land included in the Forest
is, therefore, relatively insensitive to modest local vari- Service land area reports (www.fs.fed.us\land\
ation in physical surroundings. Thus, a county which staff\lar\nfsmap.htm). From this report and census data
has several lakes, in a region where lakes are uncom- on the total land area of each county, the percentage
mon, or attractive viewscapes, in a relatively flat area of a county’s land area that is in a national forest is
of the country, would likely receive only a moderately determined. We calculate the percentage of national
high score. This is despite the fact that the county may forest land as of 2001. If the national forest county
be the most attractive site within a considerable dis- designation is to have analytical utility and be consis-
tance. The amenity index is also insensitive to the tent with the recreation, amenity, and retirement desig-
proximity of population centers to amenity areas. This nations used here, a county must contain a significant
is a particular concern for researchers examining how amount of national forest land. For purposes of this
urban populations use recreational and scenic areas. analysis, counties with at least 10% of their land area
These weaknesses in the amenity index are most in national forests are considered separately from
evident in the Midwest. In this region, minimal eleva- those with less of their land area in national forests.
tion changes and substantial climate variation limits the The utility of this distinction and the relation between
index scores for many recreational areas. In contrast, the proportion of land in national forests and demo-
the recreational typology developed by Johnson and graphic change are examined in more detail below.
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Proceedings: National Workshop on Recreation Research and Management
Figure 1—National forest counties, 2001. Source: Forest Service land area reports, 2000 Census.
Results between 10 and 20% of the land area in 157 (21%) of
the counties with national forests. Another 110 counties
National forests are widely dispersed across the nation.
(15%) with national forest lands have between 20 and
Forty-four of the fifty states contain national forests.
30% of their land area in national forests. In some 69
Although national forests are widespread, the distribu-
counties (9%) national forests make up between 30
tion of these lands is uneven. The largest concentra-
and 40% of the land area. Finally, 116 counties (16%)
tions of national forest lands are in the West, the
have more than 40% of their land area in national
Upper Great Lakes and in the Southeast and South
forests. The 757 national forest counties contained
Central regions of the country (fig.1).
66.1 million Americans, or 24% of the U.S. population
In all, 757 of the 3,141 U.S. counties (24%) con-
in 2000.
tain national forest land. The proportion of its land area
that any county has in national forests varies greatly.
Population Growth
Some 192 (25%) of the 757 counties with national
There appears to be a fairly strong link between
forests have 5% or less of their land in national forests.
demographic change and the presence of national
Another 111 (15%) have between 5 and 10% of the
forests. Most counties with national forests (84%) are
county in national forests. National forests make up
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General Technical Report PNW-GTR-698
Figure 2—Demographic change, 1990-2000, in nonmetropolitan areas, by national forest status.
Source: 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census.
Figure 3—Demographic change, 1990-2000, in metropolitan areas, by national forest status. Source: 1990 and 2000
U.S. Census.
192