Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience PDF
Preview Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience
Advances in Spatial Science Cristina Martinez Tamara Weyman Jouke van Dijk Editors Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience Advances in Spatial Science The Regional Science Series Serieseditors ManfredM.Fischer Jean-ClaudeThill JoukevanDijk HansWestlund Advisoryeditors GeoffreyJ.D.Hewings PeterNijkamp FolkeSnickars Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/3302 Cristina Martinez (cid:129) Tamara Weyman (cid:129) Jouke van Dijk Editors Demographic Transition, Labour Markets and Regional Resilience Editors CristinaMartinez TamaraWeyman SchoolofSocialSciencesand WesternSydneyUniversity Psychology Penrith,NewSouthWales WesternSydneyUniversity Australia Penrith,NewSouthWales Australia JoukevanDijk FacultyofSpatialSciences UniversityofGroningen Groningen TheNetherlands Waddenacademie Leeuwarden TheNetherlands ISSN1430-9602 ISSN2197-9375 (electronic) AdvancesinSpatialScience ISBN978-3-319-63196-7 ISBN978-3-319-63197-4 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-63197-4 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017955843 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingAG2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Foreword Demographic transitions, the subject of this book, have been reshaping our econ- omies, societies, politics and international relations for over two centuries. The planetsawitspopulationexplodefrom1billionintheyear1800toover7billion today, as mortality rates fell sharply thanks to improved hygiene, nutrition and economic development. In more recent times, declining fertility rates have been dragging down world population growth and, together with increasing life expec- tancy, resulting in an ageing of our populations. Selective migration patterns also occur within and between countries. As a result, some areas show a rapidly increasingpopulationwhereasotherareassufferfrompopulationdecline. The world’s different continents are at different stages of these demographic transitions. Europe is the world’s “oldest continent”, despite the recent influx of manyyouthfulrefugees,followedbyNorthAmericaandAustralia.Fromthecase studiesinPoland,theNetherlandsandSweden,itbecomesclearthatwithinEurope there are also substantial differences. Ageing in Sweden and the Netherlands is comparablewiththeUnitedStatesandmuchlessseverethanintheSouth-European countriessuchasSpainandItalywhicharecomparableinageingwithJapan.Asia, theregion thathas experienced theworld’sfastesteconomicgrowth thispasthalf century,isalsoexperiencingtheworld’sfastestrateofpopulationageing. Asiaisuniqueinthatitalsohastheworld’sgreatest“demographicdiversity”.A long period of fertility rates below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per womanhasnowledtoaslowlydecliningpopulationinJapan,withadverseeffects oneconomicgrowthandpublicbudgets.KoreaandTaiwanarebothfollowingthe same pattern, as is China due in part to its one-child policy (now reformed into a two-child policy). China’s demographic transition has been so abrupt that, in contrast to its North East Asian neighbours, it will become old before it becomes ahigh-incomecountry. AttheotherendoftheAsianspectrumarecountrieslikeIndia,Indonesiaandthe Philippines,whicharestillatanearlierstageintheirdemographictransitions.They havelargeyouthbulgesnowenteringthelabourmarket,buttheseenergeticyoung people are in desperate need of skills and training and jobs. Asia’s demographic v vi Foreword diversityopensopportunitiesformutuallybeneficialmigrationfromlabour-richto labour-poor countries. But most regrettably, apart from the low-fertility cases of HongKongandSingapore,toofewcountriesareopeningtheirdoorstosignificant immigration. Europe is now confronted with increasing migration from conflict areasinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.Migrationofpeopleisalsorelatedtomigration ofhumancapital.SomecitiesintheUnitedStatesshowingpopulationdeclineare alsoconfrontedwithadeclineinstocksofhumancapital,whileothercitieswhich havedepopulatedarestillaccumulatinghighereducatedindividuals. All these demographic transitions are impacting different national regions and cities to different extents and in different ways. This highlights the need for governments at all levels, from the local to the regional and national, to respond to the manifold challenges, with a response which is not one size fits all, but is modulatedaccordingtothespecificityoftheregionorcity. Internationalcooperationisalsobeingtestedbymigrationpressuresandcross- border capital flows. Businesses must adapt and respond to changing labour supplies. Trade unions and civil society organisations are having to represent the interestsofadynamicallychangingdemography.Eachandeveryoneofusisnow living in rapidly changing demography which is challenging social cohesion. Thebookisauniquesourceofinformation,analysisandideasondemographic change,labourmarkets andregional resilience.Countrycasestudies,oftenwitha regionalfocus,coverEuropeancountrieslikePoland,theNetherlandsandSweden, theUnitedStatesandAsia’sleadingeconomiesofChina,JapanandKorea.Issues dealt with include urban and regional aspects, retirement security, labour markets and productivity. The authors of each chapter are leading experts in their fields. I canonlymakethemostunreservedrecommendationtomembersofallstakeholder groupstotakethetimetobenefitfromtheirknowledgeandexperiencebyreading thisexcellentvolume. AsianCenturyInstitute JohnWest Sydney,Australia Introduction Demographicchangeisauniversalfeatureofourtimes,affectingallcountriesatall stagesofdevelopment.Theworld’spopulationisincreasing,butpopulationgrowth rates are in decline. This slowdown is essentially due to falling fertility rates. Meanwhile, in OECD countries, people are living longer. This means that the distribution of age in the population is shifting, with proportionately fewer young peoplethan olderpeople. Ageing isnotaproblem untoitself:Individualswantto grow old. Overall, people are significantly healthier than in the past and enjoy longer lifespans. However, the aggregate effect of population ageing and the resulting changes to the population structure of many countries pose huge challenges for their economies and their ageing populations, prompting multiple questions(Newbold2015).1Willtherebethecapacitytosupportagrowingnumber ofretireesandfundpensionsandlong-termhealthcarewithasmalleranddeclining labour force? What are the economic benefits and costs of ageing at the local, regionalandnationallevels? Atthelocallevel,themain reason forpopulation ageingismigration,with the outmigration of young workers to highly urbanised areas, leaving behind older populations in less urbanised and rural areas. The net result is economic and demographic decline compounded by an older and smaller population. This trend isalreadycreatingpolicyandfiscalchallengesinsomecountries.Thelargerimpact of demographic transition can be observed at the local level where institutions, organisationsandthecommunityfeelthedynamicsofshrinkageandageingoftheir labour markets. Despite the severity of the global trends and the difficulties in reversing these trends in the short term, national and local institutions and stakeholders can and should enhance their pathways for sustainable development by smart management of their demographic transition. This book reviews these 1NewboldKB(2015)Populationaging:whatroleforregionalscience?AnnRegSci55:357–372. doi:10.1007/s00168-015-0676-y vii viii Introduction trends in a selection of countries and suggests strategic policies that need to be implementedtomakelabourmarketsmoreresilientandmoreinclusive. Demographic change is recognised worldwide as a fundamental policy challenge facing not only national governments across the world, but due to its greatercomplexityatlowerspatialscales,isevenmorechallengingforregionaland local governments. Such demographic changes include falling fertility rates, increased life expectancy, migration, population ageing, youth unemployment andlocalisedpopulationshrinkage.Theseprocessesimpactthesizeandcomposi- tion of the labour force, the stock of human capital and labour productivity. The impactofdemographicchangeisselectivebyindividualsaccordingtoe.g.ageand education and differs between urban and rural areas. As a result of these demo- graphicchanges,strategicsolutionsmusttakeintoaccounttheinterplayofdifferent elements, integrating the characteristics of the community, human capital, indus- trial composition and social distribution (Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2012).2 As illustrated in Fig. 1, sustainable and resilient communities rely on the complex interaction of four key areas: population and health, such as ageing, fertility and longevity; new sources of growth, such as the silver and white economies, entre- preneurshipandinnovation; skillsecosystems,such asskillssupply development, utilisationanddemand;andlabourmarkets,suchasemployment,unemployment, ageingworkforceandskillsmismatch.Theperformancecharacterisationsofthese factors depend on elements in other key areas. These are significant transitional issuesfacinggovernmentsatalllevels,butespeciallyatthelocallevel,inmanaging industrial development, job creation, welfare levels and sustainable development. Thisprovidesaframeworkfortheanalysisinlaterchaptersofspecificregionalcase studiesandchaptersthatanalysemorein-depthspecificissueslikesecuringincome security for older (retired) people, spatial changes in the human capital stock and changesinlabourproductivityrelatedtopopulationchange. Thebookisdividedintoelevenchapters.Itstartswithtwogeneralchapters.In Chap.1,thedemographicchangephenomenonisintroducedfromaninternational perspective and where the challenges and impacts of demographic transition are discussed and the need for suitable indicators to develop effective and efficient policies. Chapter2examinesdemographic trends across OECD cities andregions and discusses challenges facing different types of places and addresses the policy dilemmasandconflictsatdifferentspatialscales. After these general chapters, a series of five chapters presents a cross-country analysisoftheimpactsofdemographictransitionsinEuropeandAsia,focusingon thechallengesfacingregionalandlocalcommunitiesandwhatgovernmentsandkey stakeholderscandotoprepareandanticipatethechangesorturnthemintooppor- tunities.InEurope,theNetherlands,SwedenandPolandareanalysed.Acomparison of these three countries is interesting, because the institutional setting, the spatial scale,populationsizeandpopulationdensityareverydifferent.TheNetherlandsand 2Martinez-Fernandez C, Kubo N, Noya A, Weyman T (2012) Demographic change and local development:shrinkage,regenerationandsocialdynamics.OECDPublishing,Paris.doi:10.1787/ 9789264180468-en Introduction ix Fig. 1 Interplay of factors impacting demographic change. Source: Based on Martinez- Fernandez, C.,Kubo, N., Noya, A., andWeyman, T., (2012), Demographic Change and Local Development:Shrinkage,RegenerationandSocialDynamics,OECDPublishing,Paris Sweden are both small in terms of population, but spatial scale and population density are very different. Poland is much larger in terms of total population, and it has a very different history of institutional and economic development. Across Asia, results are presented for China and Japan which are also very different in spatial scale and institutional and economic development. The following chapters giveanin-depthanalysisofspecificelementsfromFig.1ofdemographictransition: SouthKorea’slabourmarkettrendsamongolderworkersasanotherpillarofincome security;theUnitedStates’decliningpopulationareasareassociatedwithadecline ineducatedindividuals;andaneconometricanalysisofDutchdataontheeffectsof ageing on labour productivity and the impacts on welfare. In Chap. 11, potential instrumentsfordecision-makingandstrategicprioritisationofactionsareidentified and related to strategic, coordinated policy responses involving local solutions, based on policy themes that addresssustainabilityand inclusiveness ofthe labour market.Next,wewilldescribethecontentsofthechaptersinmoredetail. Chapter1byMartinezandWeymangivesanoverviewofthemajorworldwide trends in demographic changes. Falling fertility rates, increased life expectancy, migration, population ageing and localised population shrinkage are significant policy challenges that national, regional and local governments are facing. This chapter outlines the objectives of the study, illustrates the demographic transition across the OECD and globally and highlights the complexity and interplay of the factors impacting demographic change. In order to get an insight into these
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