Climate Change: A Wicked Problem: Complexity and Uncertainty at the Intersection of Science, Economics, Politics, and Human Behavior

380 Pages·2015·3.409 MB·English

by  Frank P. Incropera

CLIMATE CHANGE: A WICKED PROBLEM
Under one cover, Frank Incropera provides a comprehensive, objective, and
critical assessment of all issues germane to the climate change debate: science,
technology options, economic ramifications, cultural and behavioral issues,
the influence of special interests and public policy, geopolitics, and ethical
dimensions. The underlying science is treated in depth, but in an approachable
and accessible manner. A strong case is made for the reality of anthropogenic
climate change, while confronting the range of issues that remain uncertain
and deconstructing opposing views. Incropera assesses the strengths and weak-
nesses of technology options for mitigating the effects of climate change, ana-
lyzes nontechnical factors – economic, cultural, and political – and provides
an in-depth treatment of ethical implications. This book is intended for those
wishing to become fully informed about climate change and is designed to pro-
vide the reader with a firm foundation for drawing his or her own conclusions.
Frank P. Incropera is Clifford and Evelyn Brosey Professor of Mechanical
Engineering at the University of Notre Dame, where he also served as Dean of
Engineering from 1998 until 2006. He spent a majority of his career at Purdue
University, and among his many honors he has received the American Society
of Engineering Education (ASEE) Ralph Coats Roe Award for excellence in
teaching (1982), the ASEE George Westinghouse Award for contributions to
education (1983), the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Heat Transfer Memorial Award (1988), the Melville Medal for the best origi-
nal paper published by ASME (1988), and the Worcester Reed Warner Medal
of ASME (1995). He received the Senior Scientist Award from the Alexander
von Humboldt Foundation of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1988 and
in 1996 was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Engineering. In 2001,
he was named by the Institute for Scientific Information as one of the 100
most frequently cited engineering researchers in the world. He is a Fellow of
ASME and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
Professor Incropera has had a long-standing interest in transport phenomena
and in recent years has turned his attention to the broad range of technical and
nontechnical issues associated with transition to a sustainable energy future.

Climate Change:

A Wicked Problem
Complexity and Uncertainty at the
Intersection of Science, Economics,
Politics, and Human Behavior
Frank P. Incropera
University of Notre Dame
32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA
Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.
It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107521131
© Frank P. Incropera 2016
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2016
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Incropera, Frank P.
Climate change: a wicked problem: complexity and uncertainty
at the intersection of science, economics, politics, and human
behavior / Frank P. Incropera, University of Notre Dame.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-107-10907-0 (hardback) – ISBN 978-1-107-52113-1 (pbk.)
1. Climatic changes – Environmental aspects. 2. Climatic changes – Social
aspects. 3. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric. 4. Energy consumption –
Environmental aspects. I. Title.
QC903.I475 2016
363.738′74–dc23 2015016109
ISBN 978-1-107-10907-0 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-107-52113-1 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy
of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication
and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
To Andrea, who would rather I had spent my time in other ways, and to our
grandchildren, Wally, Michael, Mallory, Brandon, and Kyle. May they
have the wisdom and resilience to meet the challenges that await them.

Contents

Foreword by Anthony F. Earley Jr. page xi
Foreword by G.P. “Bud” Peterson xv
Foreword by Arun Majumdar xvii
Preface xxi
Acknowledgments xxvii
Abbreviations xxix
1 Energy, economics, and climate change ................. 1
1.1 Energy: an indispensable resource 1
1.2 Energy 101: a taxonomy 2
1.3 Energy and economic growth 5
1.4 Energy, greenhouse gases, and the environment 8
1.5 Energy, economy, the environment, and sustainability 11
1.6 A wicked problem 13
1.7 Summary 15
2 The Earth’s climate system .......................... 18
2.1 Weather and climate 18
2.2 Natural agents of climate change 20
2.3 Earth’s global energy budget and the
greenhouse effect 23
2.4 Summary 29
3 Greenhouse gases .................................. 30
3.1 Distinguishing features 30
Atmospheric concentrations 31
Atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials 36
Radiative forcings 37
3.2 Greenhouse gas emissions: recent trends 42
vii
viii Contents
3.3 A macro view of contributing factors 45
3.4 Whither emissions? 47
3.5 The carbon cycle 51
3.6 Summary 53
4 Global warming ................................... 55
4.1 The Earth’s temperature history 55
Proxy and instrument records 55
Not without controversy 59
The CO–temperature linkage 61
2
Temperature stasis 62
The instrument record redux 67
4.2 Climate models and future warming 71
4.3 Feedback mechanisms 74
Effect of atmospheric water vapor 74
Effect of ice cover on the Earth’s albedo 75
Decomposition of organic matter 76
4.4 Summary 77
5 Consequences of global warming .....................80
5.1 The Arctic: canary in a mine shaft 80
5.2 Changing sea levels 83
The effect of glaciers 83
The effect of ice sheets 84
Rising seas 87
5.3 Extreme weather events 90
5.4 The built environment 94
5.5 The natural environment 96
5.6 Food production 98
5.7 Human health and security 101
5.8 Abrupt climate change 102
5.9 Summary 105
6 Mitigation, adaptation, and geoengineering ............ 108
6.1 Energy efficiency and conservation 109
6.2 Decarbonization of electric power: coal – the
800-pound gorilla 111
The natural gas conundrum 111
Nuclear and renewable energy 116
6.3 Decarbonization of transportation 120
Electric vehicles: back to the future 121
Biofuels: some better than others 122