Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 2015. Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit

92 Pages·2015·5.07 MB·English

by  Cuming, Victoria

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY
FINANCE SUMMIT 2015

NEW YORK
14 APRIL 2015
Michael Liebreich, Chairman
of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
2004-14 ($BN)
600
400
400
7% -7%
355000 -8% 12%
350 16% -81%5%
35% -9%
300 31%
300
400
12% -9% Expected
250 Large hydro
250 1%
17% Large hydro
300 27%
200 Other
200 36% Other
50% SSoollaarr
150
200 45%150
30% Wind
46% Wind
100
100
100
50
50
00
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2004 2005 200620042002700520020806 20200097 22001080 22000191 220100122021101320122012402130152 0Q141
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital
energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 1
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY
2004-14 ($BN)
600
400
400
7% -7%
7% -7% 12%
350 -8% 12%
355000 353%5% -8%
300
300
12% -9%
400 12% -9% Large hydro
250 Expected
250
27%
27% LOathrgere hydro
200 300
200
Other
50% Solar
50%
150
Solar
15030%
200
30% Wind
Wind
100
100
100
50
50
0
200004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital
energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 2
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2010–14
($2014 / BARREL)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 3
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000–14
($2014 / BARREL)
180
160
140
120
100
or ?
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World
Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation Bank
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 4
OIL PRICE CRASH – V OR L?
Abdalla El-Badri, Secretary General, Bob Dudley CEO, BP
OPEC
“If you don’t invest in oil You won’t see $100 oil
and gas, you will see again “for a long time”
more than $200”
Images: Bloomberg
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 5
THE ECONOMIST COVER, “SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE”, DECEMBER
2014
Source: The Economist
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 6
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, 1970–2014
(BARRELS PER DAY)
22m
20m
Consumption
18m
16m
14m
12m
10m
8m
6m
Production
4m
2m
0m
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4
7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: EIA
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 7
US VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED
(MILLION MILES)
3,500,000
3,000,000
Gap to trend:
2,500,000
17% in 10
2,000,000 years
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Note: Moving 12-month total of vehicle miles travelled in the US. Created from monthly data, and not seasonally adjusted
Source: US Federal Highways Administration
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 8
US TOTAL VEHICLE FLEET FUEL EFFICIENCY, 1990–2014
(AVERAGE MILES PER GALLON)
Improvement
3311..66
60% in 13 years
2255..44
2244..55 2244..55
00 22 44 66 88 00 22 44 66 88 00 22 44
99 99 99 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 11 11 11
99 99 99 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
11 11 11 11 11 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Source: US Department of Transportation NHTSA
Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit 9