Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in PDF
Preview Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in
Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 1 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 2 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 1 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Foreword Climate change has become a business reality, as more and more countries around the world are adopting stringent greenhouse gas reduction targets. For Poland to be able to assess what greenhouse gas reductions are achievable, when, and at what cost, a comprehensive analysis is required. McKinsey & Company, under the Honorary Patronage of the Polish Ministry of Economy, cooperated with over 40 institutions and companies to assess greenhouse gas reduction opportunities for Poland. All assumptions and results were discussed in numerous interviews with leading experts. Using a methodology proven in over 20 country studies worldwide, the research investigated over 100 individual abatement measures in all major areas of the economy. This report1 does not evaluate the science of climate change. It also avoids assessing policies, political implementation programs, and other governmental interventions. It is strictly intended to provide an objective fact base of the abatement potential and the costs of abatement measures in Poland. This data can serve as a starting point for further discussions and decisions. We would like to thank all the participating experts, companies, and associations for their constructive cooperation and valuable inputs over the past few months. Warsaw, December 2009 Jacek Poświata Wojtek Bogdan Director Principal McKinsey & Company Poland McKinsey & Company Poland 1 The report is published in Polish and in English. Please note that minor differences may occur between versions. 1 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 2 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Acknowledgements Honorary Patronage Ministry of Economy, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Economy Waldemar Pawlak Supporting Patrons Ministry of the Environment Committee on Energy Safety Policy Prime Minister’s Strategy Advisors’Team Financing Partners European Climate Foundation The World Bank Vattenfall Polska Polski KomitetEnergiiElektrycznej ▪ Polska GrupaEnergetyczna ▪ Tauron ▪ ENERGA ▪ ENEA Scientific Advisory Panel PhD AndrzejKassenberg, Institute for Sustainable Development Prof. MaciejSadowski, Environmental Protection Institute Prof. Krzysztof Żmijewski, Social Council of the National Emissions Reduction Program 3 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 4 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Table of Contents Foreword 1 Acknowledgements 3 Summary of Findings 7 The Global Context 25 Objectives and Methodology 29 GHG Abatement Potential in Poland 33 Business-As-Usual Emissions Trajectory in Poland 33 Total Abatement Potential 35 Energy Efficiency 38 Low Emissions Power Supply 43 Carbon Capture And Storage 49 Remaining Levers 49 GHG Abatement Investment 55 Implementation Path and Scenarios 61 Uncertainties and Sensitivities 69 Appendix – Examples of Other Technological GHG Reduction Levers in Transport 73 Glossary 75 Bibliography 78 5 Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030 Summary of Findings 6
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