Armies and Insurgencies in the Arab Spring This page intentionally left blank ARMIES AND INSURGENCIES IN THE ARAB SPRING Edited by Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, and Fred H. Lawson UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA PRESS PHILADELPHIA Copyright © 2016 University of Pennsylvania Press All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations used for purposes of review or scholarly citation, none of this book may be reproduced in any form by any means without written permission from the publisher. Published by University of Pennsylvania Press Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-4112 www.upenn.edu/pennpress Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN 978-0-8122-4854-8 CONTENTS Introduction: Military Engagement in Mobilizing Societies: The Research Agenda 1 Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, and Fred H. Lawson PART I. MILITARY POLITICS AND REGIME DYNAMICS Chapter 1. Military Relations in Comparative Perspective 7 David Pion-Berlin Chapter 2. Officers and Regimes: The Historical Origins of Political-Military Relations in Middle Eastern Republics 34 Kevin Koehler Chapter 3. Armed Forces, Internal Security Services, and Popular Contention in the Middle East and North Africa 54 Fred H. Lawson Chapter 4. A Shifting Role of the Military in Arab Politics? Cross-Regional Perspectives and Implications for the Future of Civil-Military Relations in the Region 71 Robert Springborg PART II. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE ARAB UPRISINGS Chapter 5. Should I Stay or Should I Go? Comparing Military (Non-)Cooperation During Authoritarian Regime Crises in the Arab World and Asia 97 Aurel Croissant and Tobias Selge vi Contents Chapter 6. Cain and Abel in the Land of Sheba: Elite Conflict and the Military in Yemen 125 Holger Albrecht Chapter 7. Bahrain’s “Cohesive” Military and Regime Stability amid Unrest 145 Dorothy Ohl Chapter 8. The Syrian Military and the 2011 Uprising 168 Philippe Droz-Vincent PART III. TRAJECTORIES OF POLITICAL-MILITARY RELATIONS: BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING Chapter 9. Egypt: From Military Reform to Military Sanctuarization 185 Chérine Chams El-Dine Chapter 10. The Tunisian Military and Democratic Control of the Armed Forces 203 Risa A. Brooks Chapter 11. Building an Army to Build the State? The Challenge of Building Security Institutions in Post-Qaddafi Libya 225 Virginie Collombier Chapter 12. Military Prestige, Defense-Industrial Production, and the Rise of Gulf Military Activism 241 Shana Marshall References 265 List of Contributors 293 Index 297 Armies and Insurgencies in the Arab Spring This page intentionally left blank INTRODUCTION Military Engagement in Mobilizing Societies: The Research Agenda Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, and Fred H. Lawson Politics in any society involves the management of coercive power. Therefore, the interactions between the armed forces and other actors, organizations, and institutions of the political system have important consequences for the stability and survival of all forms of political regimes (Croissant and Kuehn 2015). In authoritarian regimes, the “civil-military problematique” (Feaver 1996) is particularly pertinent: autocracies tend to maintain a much larger coercive apparatus than democracies do, of which the military is the largest and most powerful. While most dictators rely on the police and specialized internal security agencies for everyday repression, the military is the final guarantor of regime security against vertical threats that arise from the cit- izenry (Svolik 2012). However, a strong military is a double-edged sword for authoritarian leaders. A more powerful military is more effective in repressing political conflicts between the ruling elite and the masses but at the same time may create threats to regime survival that emerge from within the regime coalition, as is demonstrated by the high frequency of coups in auto- cratic regimes (Frantz and Ezrow 2011; Croissant 2013a). Moreover, a strong military is in a better position to demand substantial political and economic concessions in exchange for its role in maintaining the regime (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006:219; Bhave and Kingston 2010). Therefore, no authoritarian government can hold on to the reins of power without the expressed consent of military leaders. This is especially
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