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ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) April 2016* Revised: December 2017 ISBN 978-9939-831-98-5 © World Food Programme, 2016 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) Foreword Food insecurity and a dual malnutrition burden remain major challenges in Armenia, hampering the realization of the full human and socio-economic potential of the population. Despite the economic growth over the last decade, the level of food insecurity has been stagnant over the past five years, and there is growing disparity between the food insecure and food secure. Hunger has many costs: child undernutrition negatively impacts the Gross Domestic Product of the country as a result of increased healthcare costs and lower productivity. It also adds to education costs: food-insecure households are less educated and allocate less of their overall income to education expenses. Poor nutrition causes irreversible damage to children. It affects brain and body development, and school achievement, as well as health and productivity later in life. Pregnancy and early childhood – the first 1,000 days – are especially critical. This underlines the importance of improving nutrition for mothers and young children. Access to nutritious food and awareness of its importance is crucial for a healthy, strong and produc- tive population in the future. Tackling food insecurity and child malnutrition requires new approaches to address the Sustainable Devel- opment Goals comprehensively, as they are all interlinked. The new food and food security systems, which include safety nets, need to play a bigger role in economic and social development. They must be inclusive, nu- tritious and healthy, climate smart, sustainable, business-friendly and productive. This report was jointly developed by the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (NSS RA), the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). It presents Armenia’s current socio-economic, poverty, food security and nutrition status, combined with trend analysis from 2008. It analyses data from the Integrated Living Conditions Surveys for the period 2008–2014 and identifies areas where measures could be taken, and areas where further investment would improve food and nutrition security and strengthen resilience to the risks that households face. The report conveys several key messages for decision and policy-makers: 1) education is critical for improved food security; 2) a dual burden of malnutrition exists across the country among children under 5, with large numbers of both stunted and overweight children; 3) volatility in global and regional economies impedes Ar- menia’s economic growth, and 4) the majority of the country‘s population is at risk of one or more natural hazards. The report suggests that with joint efforts and with a greater coordination among all stakeholders, it is possi- ble to develop and implement comprehensive national food security (in its three dimensions - availability, ac- cess and utilization) and nutrition policy along a life-cycle approach, which will help address the current food insecurity and malnutrition in the country. Mr Stepan Mnatsakanyan President of the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia Mrs Pascale Micheau WFP Armenia Country Director and Representative Mrs Tanja Radocaj UNICEF Armenia Country Representative 3 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) Acknowledgements This analysis was initiated by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) Armenia and jointly developed with the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia (NSS RA) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Armenia. The support of the key government ministries of the Republic of Armenia (Health, Education and Science, Labour and Social Affairs, Agriculture, Territorial Administration and Development, and Emergency Situations) was invaluable at all stages. The report was prepared by a team composed by Cinzia Papavero (WFP consultant), Eugenie Reidy (WFP consultant), Elmira Bakhshinyan (WFP/Armenia) and Janne Utkilen (WFP/Regional Bureau Cairo), with the guidance of WFP Armenia staff (Pascale Micheau, Luca Molinas, Eduard Shirinyan, Vanja Karanovic, and Grigori Grigoryants). Instrumental direction was provided by experts in the WFP regional office (Mariko Kawabata) and at Headquarters (Nadine Lombardo). Vital data, inputs and revision of drafts was provided by the partner agencies NSS RA and UNICEF Armenia. Other contributors included the FAO Representation in Armenia; Eleonora Dupouy, Food Safety and Consumer Protection Officer, FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia; Mauricio Rosales, Capacity Development Officer, FAO HQ; and Anna Jenderedjian, World Bank. The team wish to thank all those involved for their interest in, and contributions to, this study. It is hoped that this report will serve as a valuable resource for government and development actors throughout Armenia by improving the availability of updated information on food and nutrition security. For questions and comments concerning this study, please contact: National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia Mr Stepan Mnatsakanyan, President [email protected] WFP Country Office Armenia Mrs Pascale Micheau, Country Director and Representative [email protected] UNICEF Country Office Armenia Mrs Tanja Radocaj, Country Representative [email protected] Cover photo credits: from the left: WFP/Liana Kharatian; Ministry of Agriculture of the RA; UNICEF Armenia. Map designations used: The depictions and use of boundaries, geographic names and related data shown on maps and included in tables throughout the document are not warranted to be error-free, nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement or acceptance by the World Food Programme. 4 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) Table of Contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgements ..............................................................................................................................................................................4 List of Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................................................7 Executive Summary ...........................................................................................................................................................................8 Conclusions and recommendations ....................................................................................................................................10 Report Structure ...............................................................................................................................................................................12 1. Background and methodology ..........................................................................................................................................13 1.1 Rationale of the analysis ......................................................................................................................................................13 1.2. Country background .............................................................................................................................................................13 1.2.1 Political and socio-economic trends ........................................................................................................................13 1.2.2 Population trends ...........................................................................................................................................................14 1.2.3 GDP trends and composition .....................................................................................................................................14 1.2.4 Public health ...................................................................................................................................................................16 1.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................17 1.3.1 Food security and nutrition framework and concepts ..........................................................................................17 1.3.2 Data sources ...................................................................................................................................................................20 1.3.3 Limitations of the study ................................................................................................................................................21 2. Food insecurity trends and the profile of food-insecure households ........................................................23 2.1 Food insecurity trends ..........................................................................................................................................................23 2.1.1 National trends .............................................................................................................................................................23 2.1.2 Trends in urban and rural areas ..................................................................................................................................24 2.1.3 Status of food security by area ...................................................................................................................................25 2.2 Profile of food-insecure households ................................................................................................................................26 2.2.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................................26 2.2.2 Household demographics and education .................................................................................................................26 2.2.3 Food utilization .............................................................................................................................................................27 2.2.4 Food access ....................................................................................................................................................................30 2.2.5 Food availability .............................................................................................................................................................32 2.2.6 Stability ............................................................................................................................................................................33 3. Socio-economic trends influencing food security in Armenia .......................................................................34 3.1 Food access .................................................................................................................................................................................34 3.1.1 Poverty and inequality .................................................................................................................................................34 3.1.2 Unemployment .............................................................................................................................................................37 3.1.3 Remittances and labour migration .............................................................................................................................38 3.2 Food availability .......................................................................................................................................................................39 4. Stability of food security – shocks and stresses ......................................................................................................42 4.1 Human-induced shocks and stresses ..............................................................................................................................43 4.1.1 Crises in external economies: global and regional .................................................................................................43 4.1.2 Political tensions ............................................................................................................................................................45 4.1.3 Energy crises ...................................................................................................................................................................45 4.1.4 Emigration .......................................................................................................................................................................46 4.1.5 Industrial hazards ...........................................................................................................................................................47 4.2 Natural shocks and stresses ................................................................................................................................................47 4.2.1 Hailstorms and frost .....................................................................................................................................................48 4.2.2 Floods, landslides and mudslides ................................................................................................................................49 4.2.3 Drought ..........................................................................................................................................................................51 4.2.4 Earthquakes ...................................................................................................................................................................52 4.2.5 Climate change and environmental degradation ...................................................................................................53 5 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) 5. Malnutrition – a dual burden ................................................................................................................................................55 5.1 Overall distribution of child malnutrition ....................................................................................................................56 5.2 Stunting ........................................................................................................................................................................................57 5.2.1 Distribution and trends ................................................................................................................................................57 5.2.2 Underlying causes of stunting ....................................................................................................................................58 5.3 Overweight ..................................................................................................................................................................................60 5.3.1 Distribution and trends ...............................................................................................................................................60 5.3.2 Underlying causes of overweight ..............................................................................................................................61 5.4 Micronutrient deficiencies ...................................................................................................................................................63 6. Overlay of natural disaster risk with food insecurity and malnutrition .................................................67 6.1 Natural disaster risk distribution .....................................................................................................................................67 6.2 Food insecurity and malnutrition distribution ..........................................................................................................68 6.2.1 Food insecurity map ......................................................................................................................................................68 6.2.2 Malnutrition distribution ..............................................................................................................................................69 6.3 Combining natural disaster risk, food insecurity and malnutrition .................................................................70 7. Linking food security and nutrition outcomes to policy and programming ........................................73 7.1. Armenia Development Strategy .....................................................................................................................................73 7.2. Existing strategies, policies and programmes ............................................................................................................73 7.2.1 Social protection ............................................................................................................................................................73 7.2.2 Inclusive productivity ....................................................................................................................................................74 7.2.3 Risk reduction ................................................................................................................................................................75 7.2.4 Nutrition awareness ....................................................................................................................................................75 7.2.5 Education to support youth productivity .................................................................................................................76 8. Conclusion and recommendations ..................................................................................................................................77 List of tables, figures, maps and boxes ..................................................................................................................................80 6 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) List of Acronyms AMD Armenian Dram BMI Body Mass Index CAC DRMI Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative CARIM Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration CDC Center for Disease Control CFSVNA Comprehensive Food Security, Vulnerability and Nutrition Analysis CIS Commonwealth of Independent States DHS Demographic and Health Survey DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FBP Family Benefit Program GDP Gross Domestic Product IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IDDs Iodine Deficiency Disorders ILCS Integrated Living Conditions Survey ILO International Labour Organization IOM International Organization for Migration Kcal Kilocalorie MDG Millennium Development Goal MNDs Micronutrient Deficiencies NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NSS RA National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe SD Standard Deviation UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction USA United States of America WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization 7 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) Executive Summary This Comprehensive Food Security, Vulnerability and Nutrition Analysis (CFSVNA) describes recent trends in the distribution of household food insecurity and child malnutrition in Armenia and explores underlying caus- es for them. It also recommends ways in which the government and its partners could address food insecurity and malnutrition in Armenia. After several years of strong economic growth, the Armenian economy contracted by 14 percent1 in 2009, in the aftermath of the 2008 global economic crisis. Poverty increased sharply, and a combination of this and high unemployment rates led many Armenians to pursue work opportunities abroad. In 2014, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.6 percent. Although Despite the economic growth over this was higher than in previous years,2 it did not match pre-crisis levels the last decade, the level of food of growth. Almost one in three people were living below the poverty line,3 insecurity has been stagnant over with urban areas outside the capital Yerevan worst affected (35 percent). the past five years, and there is Unemployment was a serious and growing problem affecting 18 percent of growing disparity between the food the economically active population;4 it had been increasing since 2012, es- insecure and food secure pecially among women and young people.5 Yerevan had the highest percent- age of unemployment, at 27 percent. Food insecurity increased sharply in Armenia following the global economic crisis, and despite steady eco- nomic recovery and growth it has remained at a high level ever since. Fifteen percent of all households were food insecure in 2014, almost twice the level in 2008.6 Data also shows that despite a stagnant rate of food insecurity, the level of food security has been increasing. This shows that although the situation is improving for part of the population, those worst off are being left behind. Increasing disparity is also seen in the Gini coefficient, an indicator for income inequality, which increased from 0.339 in 2008 to 0.373 in 2014.7 Exploring the distribution of food insecurity in 2014, this analysis found a higher prevalence in the north of the country, and in particular in Tavush (16 percent), Shirak (17 percent), Lori (17 percent) and Yerevan (18 percent). A profile of food-insecure households was established. Food insecurity was closely linked to poverty: marzes (provinces) with the highest share of people below the poverty line (Lori and Shirak) had the highest share of food-insecure households. Food-insecure households had significantly more unemployed adults (19 percent) 1 NSS RA & World Bank 2015. 2 NSS RA 2016. 3 NSS RA & World Bank 2015. 4 NSS RA 2015b. 5 Unemployment rates in 2014 were 20 percent among women and 37 percent among those aged 20–24. 6 ILCS 2014. 7 ILCS 2014. 8 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) compared with food-secure households (11 percent), a major concern given Armenia’s high levels of unem- ployment. Similarly, pensions made up a larger proportion of overall income in food-insecure households, who also devoted a larger proportion of their overall expenditure to food and had fewer productive assets. Education is critical for improved food security. Food-insecure households invested less in education than food-secure households, and they were educated to a lower level. Food-insecure households also had larger families and were more likely to have a disabled member. Profile of food-insecure households: Demographics and ⇒ Less educated and invest less in education education ⇒ A higher likelihood of having a disabled member ⇒ Larger household size ⇒ Older heads of household Food utilization ⇒ More food energy deficient ⇒ Higher percentage of staple foods in diet ⇒ Lower consumption of iron-rich foods Food access ⇒ Higher poverty ⇒ Higher share of food expenditure ⇒ Relied more on pensions in their total income ⇒ More unemployed adults Food availability ⇒ Fewer productive assets (land and livestock) Stability ⇒ More money borrowed ⇒ Higher debts ⇒ Higher share of unsustainable income sources ⇒ Remittances make up >75 percent of total income Food-insecure households borrowed more money and had more debts. They had less sustainable income sources and most of their income came from remittances – all indicators of unstable food security. Finally, food-insecure households had poorer diets in terms of both quantity and quality, and they had a lower consumption of iron-rich foods. Geographically, north-western Armenia has the highest levels Methodology of food insecurity and the highest prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5. The report’s findings are mainly based on the Integrated Living Conditions Surveys (ILCS) In 2014, 19 percent of children under 5 years old were stunt- for the period 2008–2014. The ILCS is carried ed and 15 percent were over- out each year by the National Statistical weight. While rates of stunting Service of the Republic of Armenia (NSS RA). A dual burden of In addition, an extensive literature review and overweight were falling malnutrition exists across and secondary data sources were used to among children in rural areas, the country among describe the country’s recent socio-economic both were rising in urban areas. children under 5, with large trends and risks. The nutrition analysis is In urban areas outside Yerevan, based on ILCS 2014 anthropometric data and where poverty was higher and numbers of stunted and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) education levels lower, 22 per- overweight children for the period 2000–2010. cent of children were stunted A food security framework and corresponding and 17 percent were over- pillars (availability, access, utilization and weight. stability) were used to create food security Child stunting was significantly linked with household pover- and nutrition indicators. Using ILCS data, food security profiles were created to reflect ty, poor consumption, poor care and feeding practices, and households’ current consumption (diet quality lower education of mothers. The prevalence of overweight and quantity), wealth and the sustainability of was the same across poor and rich households, indicating their income sources. the need for greater awareness of healthy eating and lifestyle across the entire population. 9 ARMENIA COMPREHENSIVE FOOD SECURITY, VULNERABILITY AND NUTRITION ANALYSIS (CFSVNA) Overweight children are more likely to become overweight as adults, which poses serious public health con- cerns. To help develop effective policies, national data collection needs to be improved to understand the prevalence and causes of overweight. Deficiencies in micronutrients affect malnutrition and food insecurity; research to understand their preva- lence and causes is under way in Armenia.8 In this analysis, data from recent years9 shows that food-insecure households consume a significantly lower level of iron-rich foods, indicating the importance of a nutritionally diverse diet. The current level of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in the coun- Volatility in global and try present a public health risk with significant implications for society and the regional economies impedes economy, through healthcare costs as well as indirect costs associated with Armenia’s economic growth, lost productivity. and the majority of the country‘s population is at Together with these concerns, Armenia is a country exposed to multiple risks: this analysis found that 28 percent of households are at risk of becoming food risk of one or more natural insecure if affected by any shock. hazards The recent global and regional economic crises considerably reversed Arme- nia’s achievements in poverty reduction and pushed many households below the poverty line and into food insecurity. This underlines the country’s dependence on external economies, and its overall vulnerability to shocks in them. Such shocks destabilise trade, foreign exchange and the flow of remittances to Armenia. Re- mittances are a key income source for many households. They make a very significant contribution to the economy (18 percent of GDP in 2014). A sharp decrease in private remittances from 201510 poses a serious future risk in terms of poverty and food security. Armenia is a shock-prone country where the majority of the population is at risk of one or more types of natural disasters. Earthquakes have the biggest economic impact, but less severe, more frequent shocks have a direct impact on the country’s productivity and food security. These include hailstorms, frost, flooding, land- or mudslides and drought. Armenia is also exposed to human-induced hazards, including industrial accidents and political tensions within the region. Since food insecurity, malnutrition, poverty and shocks are closely interrelated, analyses need to consider the wider impacts of changes in each. Conclusions and recommendations Many policies and programmes are in place to improve food and nutrition security in Armenia, aligned to crit- ical strategic frameworks including the Armenia Development Strategy for 2014–25 and the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2016–2020. This analysis concluded that further investments are needed to improve food and nutrition security, and to strengthen resilience to the risks households face. The following recommendations were made, based on the findings of this analysis: 8 DHS 2015 9 ILCS 2008-14 10 IMF Armenia: News Report for March 2, 2016. 10

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presents Armenia's current socio-economic, poverty, food security and the FAO Representation in Armenia; Eleonora Dupouy, Food Safety and.
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