Allegiance Outcomes in Syrian Civil War

271 Pages·2016·23.55 MB·English

UC San Diego
UC San Diego Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Title
Identity Group Allegiance in Civil Wars
Permalink
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qv6r3t7
Author
Ash, Konstantin
Publication Date
2016

Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation
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UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIA,SANDIEGO
IdentityGroupAllegianceinCivilWars
ADissertationsubmittedinpartialsatisfactionofthe
requirementsforthedegree
DoctorofPhilosophy
in
PoliticalScience
by
KonstantinAsh
Committeeincharge:
ProfessorDavidA.Lake,Chair
ProfessorBarbaraF.Walter,Co-Chair
ProfessorEliBerman
ProfessorClarkC.Gibson
ProfessorPhilipG.Roeder
2016
Copyright
KonstantinAsh,2016
Allrightsreserved.
The Dissertation of Konstantin Ash is approved, and it is
acceptable in qualityand form for publication onmicrofilm
andelectronically:
Co-Chair
Chair
UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego
2016
iii
EPIGRAPH
Anoblespiritembiggensthesmallestman.
—JebediahSpringfield
iv
TABLEOFCONTENTS
SignaturePage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Epigraph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
TableofContents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
ListofFigures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
ListofTables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii
Vita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
AbstractoftheDissertation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
Chapter1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Chapter2 AssumptionsandTheoreticalModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Chapter3 ANewData-setontheGeographicalCompositionofIdentityGroups 49
Chapter4 PatternsofIdentityGroupAllegianceduringCivilWarssince1992 . . 83
Chapter5 IdentityGroupAllegianceduringtheSyrianCivilWar . . . . . . . . 113
Chapter6 ResentmentandIndividualAllegiancePreferencesinLebanon . . . . 136
Chapter7 AgencyduringCrisis: InterviewswithLebanesePoliticalLeaders . . 164
Chapter8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
AppendixA AppendixMaterialsforChapter2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
AppendixB AppendixMaterialsforChapter3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
AppendixC AppendixMaterialsforChapter4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
AppendixD AppendixMaterialsforChapter6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
AppendixE AppendixMaterialsforChapter7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
v
LISTOFFIGURES
Figure3.1: RepresentationofData-GeneratingProcessofIdentityGroupMapsfor
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Figure3.2: FullScopeofIdentityGroupDataCoverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Figure3.3: IdentityGroupsinSyria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Figure3.4: IdentityGroupsinTajikistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Figure3.5: IdentityGroupsinNigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Figure4.1: Lerouxet. al. (1999)MCMCBinomialCARModelResults . . . . . . 107
Figure5.1: IdentityGroupsinSyria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
Figure5.2: AllegianceOutcomesinSyrianCivilWar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Figure6.1: DistrictsSampledduringSurvey and LebanonReligiousComposition
(Izady2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Figure6.2: DifferenceinMeansResultsfromListExperimentTreatmentandCon-
trolGroups(Barsare95%confidenceintervals). . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Figure6.3: Classification of Emotions Relating to the government based on the
GenevaEmotionWheel3.0(Scherer2013). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Figure6.4: DifferencesinMeansforResentmentMeasuresinControlandTreat-
mentGroupsofListExperiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Figure6.5: Difference in Differences of List Experiment results across levels of
resentment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
FigureB.1: ComparissonofIdentityGroup(top)andEPRdataforSyria . . . . . . 186
FigureB.2: ComparissonofIdentityGroup(top)andEPRdataforTajikistan . . . 189
FigureB.3: ComparissonofIdentityGroup(top)andEPRdataforNigeria . . . . . 190
vi
LISTOFTABLES
Table3.1: IdentityGroupsinSyria: NamesandLegend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Table3.2: IdentityGroupsinTajikistan: NamesandLegend . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Table3.3: IdentityGroupsinNigeria: NamesandLegend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Table4.1: SummaryStatisticsofKeyVariables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Table4.2: MultinomialLogisticRegressionofAllegianceChoicefrom’Nocollec-
tiveaction’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Table4.3: MultinomialLogisticRegressionofAllegianceChoicefrom’Government’103
Table4.4: LogisticRegressionsofAllegianceChoice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Table4.5: MultinomialLogitRegressionofAllegianceChoice: Alternate1 . . . . 109
Table4.6: MultinomialLogitRegressionofAllegianceChoice: Alternate2 . . . . 110
Table4.7: MultinomialLogitRegressionofAllegianceChoice: Alternate3 . . . . 112
Table5.1: IdentityGroups,Resentment,LeaderChoiceandOutcomes . . . . . . . 117
Table6.1: PartyIdentificationbyConfessionamongLebaneseAdults . . . . . . . 142
Table6.2: ClassificationofEmotionalSentimentofRespondents(N=2040) . . . . 153
Table6.3: PredictorsofResentmentandNegativeEmotionTowardtheGovernment 156
Table6.4: ConnectionBetweenLeaderThreatandPartyIdentification . . . . . . . 157
Table6.5: Second Stage Non-Linear Least Squares Regression of Conflict Alle-
gianceSupport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Table7.1: DistributionofSeatsinParliamentbypartyin2009elections . . . . . . 166
Table7.2: PartyIdentificationbyConfessionamongLebaneseAdults . . . . . . . 167
TableC.1: ConflictsofAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
TableD.1: BalancingTestsofRandomizationLevelsinSurveyExperiment . . . . 219
TableD.2: FrequencyofResponsestoListExperimentalQuestiononAllegiance . 219
TableD.3: TestforAllegianceQuestionDesignEffects(Blairet. al. 2012) . . . . . 221
TableD.4: CeilingTestsofAllegianceQuestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
TableD.5: CorrelationMatrixofDeprivationQuestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
TableD.6: SampleofCodingofResponsestoFeelingsAboutStateQuestion . . . . 226
TableD.7: SampleofCodingofResponsestoWorstPolicyPrimeQuestion . . . . 227
TableD.8: SampleofCodingofLeaderTrustQuestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
TableD.9: ConfessionandInitiatorDifference-in-DifferencesModels . . . . . . . 230
TableD.10: Logistic Regression of Government Preference among Control Group
Respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
TableD.11: SecondStageNon-LinearLeastSquaresRegressionofConflictOnset
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
TableE.1: InterviewQuestionsaskedtoLebaneseLeaders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TheauthorwishestothankDavidA.Lake, Barbara F.Walter,ClarkGibson,Philip
G.RoederandEliBerman,thedissertationcommitteemembers, fortheirhelpfulcomments
and willingness to serve on the committee. The author also wishes to thank Hadi Aridi,
AldaBenjamin, Lawrence Broz,MatthewBergman,EricaChenoweth, Elaine Denny,Jesse
Driscoll, Chris Fariss, Karen Ferree, James Fowler, Charles Harb, D. Alex Hughes, Erin
Jenne, Brad LeVeck, Zaia Lawandow, David Lindsey, Matthew Nanes, Richard Nielsen,
DavidPatel,WendyPearlman,MichaelProvence,JonahSchulhofer-Wohl,ZacharySteinert-
Threlkeld, Fanglu Sun, the participants of the UCSDInternational Relations and Compar-
ative Workshops, the UCSD Comparative Retreat, the 2013 IGCC Symposium, the 2015
ISA JuniorScholar Symposium, the2015 HNG Retreat, the 2015 Projectof MiddleEast
PoliticalStudies(POMEPS)Conferenceandthe2015MeetingofthePeaceScienceSociety
(International)fortheirhelpfulcommentsonvariousversionsoraspectsofthisproject.
TheauthoralsowishestoacknowledgethesupportoftheInstituteforGlobalConflict
andCooperationthroughtheHerbertF.YorkDissertationFellowship,whichmadethesurvey
inthesixthchapterofthedissertationpossibleandsupportfromtheUCSDDepartmentof
PoliticalScience’sSanfordA.LakoffFellowship,whichmadetraveltoLebanonpossible
ontwoseparateoccasions.
Chapter2,inpart,iscurrentlybeingpreparedforsubmissionforpublicationofthe
material. Thedissertationauthorwastheprimaryinvestigatorandauthorofthismaterial.
Chapter5,inpart,iscurrentlybeingpreparedforsubmissionforpublicationofthe
material. Thedissertationauthorwastheprimaryinvestigatorandauthorofthismaterial.
Chapter6,inpart,iscurrentlybeingpreparedforsubmissionforpublicationofthe
material. Thedissertationauthorwastheprimaryinvestigatorandauthorofthismaterial.
viii
VITA
2008 B.A.inPoliticscumlaude,NewYorkUniversity
2009 M.A.inPolitics,NewYorkUniversity
2010-2016 GraduateTeachingAssistantandAssociate-Instructor,Universityof
California,SanDiego
2016 Ph.D.inPoliticalScience,UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego
PUBLICATIONS
KonstantinAsh. 2016.“ThreatstoLeaders’PoliticalSurvivalandPro-GovernmentMilitia
Formation.” ForthcominginInternationalInteractions.
KonstantinAsh. 2016.“RepresentativeDemocracy andFighting DomesticTerrorism,”Ter-
rorismandPoliticalViolence,Vol. 28,No. 1: 114-134.
Konstantin Ash. 2015. “The Election Trap: The Cycle of Post-electoral Repression and
OppositionFragmentationinLukashenko’sBelarus,”Democratization,Vol. 22,No. 6:1030-
1053
Konstantin Ash. 2011.“A Game Theoretic Model for Protest in the Context of Post-
Communism,”CommunistandPost-CommunistStudies,Vol. 44,No. 1: 1-15.
ix