A comparison of actual school enrollments with enrollments anticipated by surveys

119 Pages·05.239 MB·English

by  Payne, Willard F

A COMPARISON OP ACTUAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
WITH ENROLLMENTS ANTICIPATED BY SURVEYS
A Thesis
Presented to
the Faculty of the School of Education
The University of Southern California
In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Master of Science in Education
by
Willard P. Payne
June 1950
UMI Number: EP56152
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This thesis, written under the direction of the
Chairman of the candidatefs Guidance Committee
and approved by all members of the Committee,
has been presented to and accepted by the Faculty
of the School of Education of the University of
Southern California in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Science
in Education.
Dean
Guidance Committee
Chairman
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
I. THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITION OF TERMS USED 1
The Problem.............................. 2
Statement of the problem . . ........... 2
Delimitation of the problem........... 2
Importance of the study............... 3
Defination of terms u s e d ............... I4.
Prognosticate ....................... l\.
Projected or estimated enrollment . . . I4.
Actual enrollment figures............. !j.
Average Daily Attendance or A. D. A.
Grade level distribution ............. £
Organization of remainder of the study 5
II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE................. 7
Literature on methods of forecasting
population . . . . . ................. 7
The personal judgement or "Booster”
method .............................. 8
The analogy method................. 9
Multiple factor method ............. 10
Mathematical method........ 11
The Bell Telephone Company . . . . 12
Summary....................... 12
ii
CHAPTER PAGE
III. SOURCES OF INFORMATION.......... llf
School surveys on file................. l\±
Offices of County Superintendents of
Schools................................ ll|
Questionnaires ......................... 15
IV. TECHNIQUES AND RESULTS OF THE SCHOOL STUDIED 17
The Santa Monica, California, city
school s y s t e m .......... 17
Techniques used ............... 17
Results obtained ..................... 18
The Vallejo, California, Unified School
District.............................. 22
Techniques used....................... 22
Results obtained..................... 2lj_
The Monrovia, California, Union High
School District....................... 214-
Techniques used....................... 28
Results obtained..................... 28
The Santa Ana, California, Union High
School District ....................... 33
Techniques u s e d ....................... 3^1-
Results obtained..................... 3k-
The Alhambra, California, High School
District................................ IpO
iii
CHAPTER PAGE
Techniques used............... . 1|0
Results obtained................ Ij.0
The Huntington Park, California, Union High
School District.................. lj.2
Techniques used............... . I4.5
Results obtained................ 1^6
Paducah, Kentucky Public School System . 5l
Techniques used..................... * . 51
Results obtained ................... 52
Pleasantville, New York Public School System 52
Techniques u se d ..........................
Results obtained....................... Sk-
Pasadena, California Public School System . 57
Techniques used......................... 57
Results obtained....................... 58
St. Louis, Missouri, Public School System. . 58
Techniques used......................... 63
Results obtained....................... 6I4.
Arcadia, California, Elementary School
District.................................. 66
Techniques used.......................... 66
Results obtained .......................... 67
iv
CHAPTER PAGE
El Segundo, California, Unified School
District......................... 67
Techniques used........................... 67
Results obtained * ............ , . . . . 70
Artesia, California, Elementary Schools, , 70
Techniques us e d ........................... 72
Results obtained................... . 72
Hermosa Beach, California, Elementary
School District ........................... 74
Techniques u se d........................... 74
Results obtained ......................... 74
Whittier, California, Union High School ,
District................................... 75
Techniques used........................... 75
Results obtained....................... 78
Bellflower, California, Elementary School
District................................... 78
Techniques u s e d . . 87
Results obtained .......................... 87
Excelsior, California, Union High School ^
District................................... 89
Techniques use d....................... 89
CHAPTER PAGE
Results obtained ......................... 91
Oxnard, California, Union High School
District.................................. 91
Techniques used......................... 93
Results obtained .......................... 93
San Gabriel, California, School District . . 9^4-
Techniques used............... 914-
Results obtained ..................... 96
V. THE QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS............ 99
The Response....................... 99
VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS..................... 101
BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................... 103
LIST OP TABLES vi
TABLE PAGE
I. Estimated Pupil Membership for Santa Monica
Schools...................................... 20
II. District Per Cent of Deviation shown at all
Levels of the School • ........ .. . . • . 21
III. Predicted School Enrollment Vallejo City Schools 26
IV. Per Cent of Deviation shown at all Levels of
the Vallejo Unified City School System . . . 27
V. Predicted School Enrollment Monrovia Union
High School District . ......... . . . . * • 30
VI. Percentage Deviation of Predicted School
Enrollment for Districts in the Monrovia
Union High School District................. 32
VII. Estimated Peak Pupil Membership Santa Ana
City Schools ............ 3&
VIII. Per Cent of Deviation of Actual Enrollment to
Estimated Enrollment in the Elementary
Districts of the Santa Ana High School
District . . . .............................. 37.
VIII. (continued).................................... 38
IX. Per Cent Deviation of Actual Enrollment to
Estimated Enrollment for the Three Educa­
tional Levels in the Santa Ana High School
District. Predicted School Enrollment Years
were for 1928 to 1938.......................... 39
vii
TABLE PAGE
X, Estimated Pupil Enrollment Alhambra Public
Schools • i+2
XI. Per Cent of Deviation are shown for the
Districts of the Alhambra High School
District 1+1+
XII. Estimated Pupil Enrollment Huntington Park
City Schools. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1+8
XIII. Per Cent of Deviation is shown for the
Districts of the Huntington Park City
Schools • • • • • • • • • • • .......... . • 1+9
XIV. Percent of Deviation is shown for the Districts
of the Huntington Park Gity Schools......... 50
XV. Estimated Peak High School Pupil Member­
ship Huntington Park Union High School
District.................................... 51
XVI. Estimated Enrollment in White and Colored
Schools at the Beginning of the School
Term in 1930, *35, *1+0, for City of Paducah,
Kentucky....................... ............. .. 51+
XVII. Estimated School Enrollment of Pleasantville,
N. Y. City Schools .......... . 56
XVIII. District Per Cent Deviation of Estimated and
Actual Enrollment for the Pleasantville
City Schools ................. 57